TA Forex Trading

General Category => Forex Trading => Topic started by: Pennies2007 on December 15, 2016, 10:33:58 pm


Title: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 15, 2016, 10:33:58 pm
This forum has been created for those of us who are dedicated to pure technical analysis in Forex trading. No single system is absolute nor is a single system the "holy grail". Trading is a dynamic process that evolves as we learn and everyone has something to contribute. Please be mindful of others as they share on this forum and, above all, be respectful. Disrespect for other members will not be tolerated in any form. We're here to help each other in any way we can.

I had a request to post my public trading accounts here at the beginning so here they are.


New Account...low risk 2% entries, heavier emphasis on long term trading or swing trading.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/nettechs/long-term/2123316

**Addition for MA Shade Trading Setup***********************************************************************
MA Shade Trading System

This is a consolidated post showing how to use the MA Shade Trading system. The setup will work for any time frame but for day trading, the 15 minute chart is the best. Also, when using this system, always check the higher time frames to see where the larger trend is going. If the daily, 4 hour, and hourly are up, for example, only look for long positions on the 15 minute setup and vice versa.

I have included a zip file in this post that includes the SHADE MA indicator and the finalized template for the setup with all of the modifications included.

So letís get right into itÖthere are 3 basic rules for taking trades using this setup. Here they areÖ

1. Wait for the MA shade indicator to change color based on the direction you want to trade. For bullish setups, the indicator will change to a blue shade. For bearish setups, the indicator will change to a gray shade. During this time, the main thing you want to make sure of is that the faster white MA crosses over the slower green MA. Youíre not actually taking the trade hereÖall youíre doing it taking note of the color change. Price will almost always retrace back in the direction of the previous trend for a bit when this first occurs. If bullish, all you need to do at this point is mark the high after the first color change appears with the MA crossover. If bearish, mark the low point after the first color change appears along with the MA crossover.

2. Set a limit order to trigger when price comes back and exceeds the point you marked in Step 1. For bullish setups, set it 5 pips above the level. For bearish setups, set it 5 pips below the level. This will trigger your trade entry. Stop losses, if you wish to use them, are normally small if the spread is small on the pair. The safest stop loss is 20 pips but normally 10 to 15 pips is fine.

3. Take profits after the high volume move or wait until price moves back to the white MA to close out the trade. I never expect less than 30 pips on these moves and most of the time (80% or more), price will move about 50 pips.

Additional notes: Avoid trading when the MAís are moving sideways during consolidation. The white MA is the key here. Ideally, it needs to be showing a 2 oíclock angle up during bullish setups and at a 4 oíclock angle down when trading bearish setups. This angle will typically show up during the initial MA shade color change and then continue once the trigger is activated. The MA shade will begin increasing in size (getting fat) once your trade trigger happens. If price seems to stall after your entry and youíre not seeing any real volume and the MA shade isnít getting bigger, itís probably best to exit for a small loss or small profit and wait for the next trigger. Also keep in mind that this system isn't designed to completely replace your existing method of TA trading. I still highly recommend that you do your analysis on higher time frames (fib, trend lines, etc.) to make sure you don't take trades that have increased odds of being losers. Also, try to always trade with the trend on the larger time frames. Your odds of success increase greatly when you do this.[/i]

There are a total of 6 example charts, the MA shade indicator, and the template included in the zip file with this post. I recommend going through the examples thoroughly and then run the setup through the MT4 strategy tester to get comfortable with the trading system before going live with it.

********************************************************
New EA Public Demo Account Link
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/nettechs/breakout2017/2208547
********************************************************


Title: UJ Weekly Chart
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 15, 2016, 10:39:22 pm
I would strongly suspect that the Yen is about to start gathering it's strength again for another northern surge, tanking pairs like UJ significantly. My minimum target on my UJ shorts is currently set for 107 but more downside beyond that looks to be in the works.

Yen Weekly Chart and UJ Daily Line Chart

Title: NewBoard looks nice
Post by: javalin on December 18, 2016, 06:30:51 pm
Pennies thanks for the creation and invite-now i've got to learn how to use it ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 18, 2016, 06:37:00 pm
Pennies you the MAN-Giving us a new beginning Merry Christmas to us--Next year will be brightened by this new forum-once again thanks
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 18, 2016, 06:42:15 pm
Pennies you the MAN-Giving us a new beginning Merry Christmas to us--Next year will be brightened by this new forum-once again thanks
I think it will be great Jav. I'll post details about the new mobile app for the forum tomorrow.


Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 18, 2016, 08:15:01 pm
just went short U/J and already in the green $$$
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 18, 2016, 08:30:14 pm
nice Kirby
Title: AUD/USD 15 min
Post by: javalin on December 18, 2016, 08:32:39 pm
loving these new pivots-on this 15 min chart i am using the Daily pivots-been rejected alot at that DPP
Title: Re: AUD/USD 15 min
Post by: javalin on December 18, 2016, 08:34:08 pm
LOL WOW that was easier to post a chart than IHUB
Title: HEADED SOUTH
Post by: javalin on December 18, 2016, 10:26:10 pm
Aud/JPY and NZD/JPY both headed south
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 18, 2016, 11:25:06 pm
nice Kirby

Nice job Kirby. UJ is probably going to be a longer term play for me since it's likely to take some time to work it's way back down to my 107 target so I'm just letting my short entries ride for now. But I've been known to do some day trading now and again as well so I may be hopping in and out along the way down...LOL!
Title: Re: NewBoard looks nice
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 18, 2016, 11:28:39 pm
Yep, there's a bit of a learning curve Jav but it's not too bad. The biggest thing to remember is to reply or quote to a post on the primary board so that it shows up there instead of creating a subtopic. Your post here and on AU, for example, showed up as a subtopic away from the primary board, most likely because you hit the "new topic" button rather than using a "reply" button on the last post.

It'll take some getting used to but things like charts are so much easier to read here than on IHUB.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 18, 2016, 11:31:07 pm
loving these new pivots-on this 15 min chart i am using the Daily pivots-been rejected alot at that DPP
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 18, 2016, 11:33:25 pm
Here's your chart Jav. It showed up on a subtopic instead of the main board here.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 18, 2016, 11:40:37 pm
Ok guys, I got the subtopics that were created merged here into the primary one so everyone can see all the posts. Just remember to hit the "reply" button to the last message on the last page and your post will automatically go to the primary page. If you accidentally make a "new topic" and it doesn't post on the main page, just let me know and I'll move it over for you.
Title: Re: AUD/USD 15 min
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 18, 2016, 11:42:00 pm
LOL WOW that was easier to post a chart than IHUB

Definitely a lot easier to post and read those charts, Jav. Once we get the hang of the new forum controls here, I think it'll go much smoother.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 19, 2016, 12:04:09 am
Thanks . board looking festive....I like it ! ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 19, 2016, 12:06:27 am
Thanks. I was playing around with the admin profile settings and thought the profile could use some Christmas spirit. :-)

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 19, 2016, 12:38:31 am
AUD/NZD Weekly Chart

Been in this one a long time. Looks like it may finally be setting up for the turn north. TP set for 1.11 even.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 19, 2016, 07:10:10 am
morning all . just took short position A/U . thanks for posting the U/J and A/U charts. still trying learn Fib's.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 19, 2016, 07:33:19 am
Careful on the AU shorts Kirby. It might produce some pips but if Aud/Nzd turns north, AU will move up with it.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 19, 2016, 02:36:00 pm
thanks . out already . just short U/J and loving it !!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 19, 2016, 02:37:33 pm
Good deal. I just got home and I'm looking over the charts. UJ is just getting started...long way down to go yet. Of course, it'll have some dead cat bounces at first because no one believes it's going to tank but once it gets going, it'll really be something to watch.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on December 19, 2016, 02:53:36 pm
I'm in....great job
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 19, 2016, 05:02:31 pm
Heavy! Good to see ya dude. I hope this thing will work out well for everybody. It seems to be pretty quick and easy so far but the control setups are a bit different than what some may be used to. If you need anything, let me know.  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on December 19, 2016, 05:31:48 pm
Yeah it's gonna take some getting used to. I'm liking the free and unlimited posts though lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 19, 2016, 05:33:25 pm
Oh heck yeah. Plus the charts are easy to post and easy to see without having to leave the post to enlarge them.

I should have details on the free mobile app sometime this evening posted.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on December 19, 2016, 05:37:17 pm
Good deal. I gotta browse around it a bit but it looks good.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 19, 2016, 05:44:42 pm
It's one of those "out of the box" forum deals. I just took it and customized it for us. The one thing I would like to change is the way the posts go into the system. Other than that, I've been happy with it so far.

Oh, almost forgot...there's none of that "change it within 15 minutes if you need to" stuff...you can go back and edit your post as late as you want to with no problem.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on December 19, 2016, 05:55:14 pm
That was the only way to really drag out your 15 post limit by editing the same post until the 15 min was reached. I was sick of paying IHUB money only to have my posts deleted. I stopped that long ago
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 19, 2016, 06:03:54 pm
That was the only way to really drag out your 15 post limit by editing the same post until the 15 min was reached. I was sick of paying IHUB money only to have my posts deleted. I stopped that long ago
Ihub used to be really good but then they sold out to the corporate sponsors. That's also part of why the system is slow and goes down a lot. The sheer amount of ad material overloads the servers and drags the whole thing down.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 19, 2016, 07:01:14 pm
Ok tks maybe i can keep us all on the same page lol ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 19, 2016, 07:10:30 pm
Mobile Forum Application Setup

Ok gang, time to try out the mobile app for our forum here. From your Android or Iphone (I think it's compatible with both), go to the Google Play Store or Apple Store and download the free "Tapatalk" app. Once you have it installed on your phone, go ahead and register for your free account to create your own login name and password (usually your email address becomes your login name).

Once you've completed the free registration, you'll receive an email asking you to confirm your identity by clicking on the embedded link. Go ahead and do that from the phone.

Now, all you have to do is search for the forum.

EDIT: When you're first searching for our board, be sure to hit the big "Follow" button on the main screen, not the big "Explore" button. The Follow button allows an easier search and actually allows you to follow the board directly from that first screen that pops up. When you first find the board, be sure to hit the "Next" button at the bottom of the screen. The app will make some recommendations for other boards...just hit the "Skip" button. Then you can go to the forum from there.

This mobile app actually allows you to access many different forums. For ours, just go to the search box and type in TA Forex Trading and search. It should bring up our forum. Click it once. Then you'll see "General Category". Click it once. Then you'll see Forex Trading. Click it once. That will finally take you to the TA Forex Trading page, which you can click once more on your phone to open up the main page. Once you have it on the main page, you will see a checkmark inside a circle in the upper right hand corner. Go ahead and tap that. It will highlight the circle, which will automatically add this forum as a Favorite. So from now on, two things will happen. (1) You will automatically receive push notifications when someone replies to your post, whether you have the app open on your phone or not. (2) Also, when you open Tapatalk on the phone, you can just touch the picture of the 4 small squares at the top of the screen and our TA Forex Trading page will be right there as a favorite, just like an internet favorite. All you have to do is hit it to open up the Forum instead of having to search for the forum each time.

Any push notifications that you get will allow you to reply directly to a post without even having to open the app manually...you can just touch the notification and instantly type in a direct reply.

If you have any problems or questions on the mobile app, just let me know. It's another one of those free "out of the box" apps that I've customized for us but I'm still looking through all of the different options. There are ads that occur in the mobile app but they don't pop up to cover up the posts...just at the top or bottom so they don't intrude on what you want to see on the board.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 19, 2016, 07:24:40 pm
Here's a Youtube video showing some of the basic features of the Tapatalk mobile Forum app in action in case anyone needs a quick video tour of how to move around in the app.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5iZdPg_Zmg
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 20, 2016, 07:55:31 am
EU Weekly Chart

I know everybody and their brother is bearish on EU but I have to emphasize again that the chart sentiment says EU is about to move north in a big way here before very long. Of course, I've been wrong before...LOL!

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on December 20, 2016, 02:32:20 pm
Why yes you have pennies...You and me both
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 20, 2016, 02:36:25 pm
Ain't it the truth...lol! Only thing we can do is see how it goes. As long as we're right more often than we're wrong, we can make money in the long run.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on December 20, 2016, 02:41:13 pm
Still waiting on the right to swing in my favor lol.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 20, 2016, 02:43:12 pm
Seems like we do spend a lot of time waiting doesn't it? If only the markets would do what we tell them to we'd be in good shape.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 20, 2016, 02:56:28 pm
Pennies really like your Daily U/J chart--looks primed for a fall
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 20, 2016, 03:00:29 pm
I think so too Jav. It can wobble around in this area for a while though and could even make one final new high. Could be January before we see any real downside.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 20, 2016, 08:13:18 pm
Just took long E/U position . still short and strong U/J !!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 20, 2016, 08:14:18 pm
Just stay light and fluffy and wait it out. It'll get there.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 20, 2016, 08:17:11 pm
Glad took E/U long. weeeee going up fast :)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 20, 2016, 08:33:16 pm
took my E/U pop . out again. added more U/J short .
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 20, 2016, 09:10:56 pm
My 30 min usd/jpy chart using the 34 ma channel
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 20, 2016, 09:13:37 pm
Cool! Once UJ really gets going its gonna tear through those downside zones and MA tunnels like they aren't even there.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 20, 2016, 10:52:47 pm
U/J picking up speed....downward !!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 21, 2016, 07:19:38 am
UJ Daily Chart with Downside Target

Target based on current high and the fact that this is a TDI Wave 4 completion on the weekly chart.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 21, 2016, 10:43:32 am
UJ 30 Minute Chart

Watching this smaller contracting channel closely. For any real downside volume, price action needs to break the channel to the downside.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 22, 2016, 05:06:18 pm
I've got 5 shorts
A/J--N/J--U/J--A/U--N/U  all being nice to me  ;D
Maybe this is going to be a great beginning to a New Year
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 22, 2016, 06:25:45 pm
U/J trying to drop right now !
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 22, 2016, 06:51:54 pm
Wow! That's one way to spread the love Jav...lol! Good job.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 22, 2016, 07:27:51 pm
yep more than 1 egg in my basket lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 22, 2016, 10:58:45 pm
just grabbed long E/U  . hope she pops
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 22, 2016, 11:02:22 pm
It'll get there sooner or later Kirby. :-)

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 22, 2016, 11:22:03 pm
thanks pennies . I think she will also . short A/U . night all .
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 24, 2016, 11:59:33 am
Merry Christmas All
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 24, 2016, 12:00:54 pm
And a Very Merry Christmas to you too Jav and to the rest of our board. 😄

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Kirby2016 on December 25, 2016, 04:29:53 pm
Merry Christmas all !!:)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on December 26, 2016, 04:37:13 pm
Hey pennies. I hope you and all had a Merry Christmas!

Thanks for putting this forum together. I've mostly stopped going to ihub, maybe this will breathe new life into the forex thread and into my trading!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 26, 2016, 06:51:38 pm
Kermit! Wow dude, welcome aboard! So glad to have you here. I really hope the board does well here. It's only a basic, out of the box design but I think it will serve our purposes.

Merry Christmas and may we all prosper in our Forex trading in the new year.   ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 27, 2016, 07:57:40 am
NU line chart and TDI hidden divergence are still suggesting another push down here.

Hourly and 4 hour charts...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 27, 2016, 11:17:48 am
Pennies i agree-still holding my nzd/usd short-thanks for the charts
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 27, 2016, 11:20:33 am
Something i have been looking at lately-usd/jpy 1 hour  line chart-i've noticed how it has been hitting a certain -what i call a mean line
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 27, 2016, 08:15:21 pm
USD/JPY update on the 'mean line'--YEP it hit it again
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 27, 2016, 08:54:40 pm
NZD/USD -as long as it stays between the 4 hour sup and res--it's been hitting that MEAN line--11 times--going to really test this out and find out on the average how long does it take to retrace back to the 'mean line'--finally there will be a break of the  "4 HOUR 'DARVAS BOX'--Yes i will give him credit for his DISCOVERY-- -then we'll watch again for the 'meanline 'on the new "Darvas Box'-his book out years ago was a great read--How i made $ 2,000,000 in the stockmarket--http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/darvas-box.asp

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 27, 2016, 08:58:51 pm
uh oh here is the NZD/USD chart lol i'll be better next year
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 28, 2016, 08:08:58 pm
I'll look into the Darvis box setup Jav. I've never actually heard of it before. I'm not really looking for a new method but I don't mind an additional means of confirmation for trades I'm already looking into. Thanks for bringing it to the board.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 29, 2016, 12:45:38 pm
Pennies it was a very interesting read-loaned my book to a so called friend-needless to say --end of that story--i believe there is an indie called the Darvas Box
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 29, 2016, 12:49:29 pm
Something i just found
http://www.darvastrader.com/

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 29, 2016, 04:40:00 pm
Ok Jav, I spent some time doing some longer term checking on NU and, for what it's worth, it really looks like it's in for some serious downside in the future.

First, we have the weekly chart, which shows a textbook perfect Goodman wave form with a great retrace right at the 50% level. Of course, it's gonna take a while to reach that kind of target but it does give us an idea of where it might be headed longer term.

In the near term daily chart, we have a really nice bearish head and shoulders with a current neckline break and retest in progress. The lowside target for this pattern is just below 0.65 at 0.6472, give or take a few pips. I think I'll just set a current TP on my short position for a nice round figure at 0.65 and see what happens.

Incidentally, this also lines up with the north surge I'm expecting to see in AUD/NZD. I have a current TP set for my long position to trigger at 1.11.

NU Weekly chart first and then the NU daily chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 29, 2016, 04:42:55 pm
UJ 4 Hour Chart

Finally getting some bearish action below the lower trend line now. It could still bounce back up inside the channel temporarily but longer term it looks good for downside.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 29, 2016, 06:20:55 pm
Thanks for the charts Pennies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 29, 2016, 06:54:25 pm
Pennies tks for reminding me of the Goodman approach-wish NZD/USD would fulfill that scenario-and i'm riding bravely with the fall
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 29, 2016, 07:46:17 pm
Here's the NU weekly line chart Jav...shows a clear breakdown.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 31, 2016, 04:30:37 pm
I'm ready for it -been watching and waiting--lol getting better about waiting--bout time THIS OLD DOG LEARNED NEW TRICKs
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on December 31, 2016, 04:35:39 pm
all have a SAFE New Year --me and mine are staying home with some WELL SPIKED eggnog -too old for partying anymore lol
Let's make this our best year for gathering those PIPS
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on December 31, 2016, 04:50:55 pm
Happy New Year everybody. Stay safe and be ready to rock and roll next week. Lets get dem pippies!

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 01, 2017, 04:08:52 pm
Happy New Year to everyone!

As some of you may remember, at the start of last year, I decided to try an experiment to see if I could use consistent gains and the power of compounding to turn a small amount of money into a large amount of money in a couple years. I set a goal of 10% a week. My intentions were golden. What was not golden is that when I decided to do this, I had an open trade when the market was closed. A fairly large NZD:USD long. Within hours of posting my plan to the IHUB board, an earthquake hit New Zealand and my account got slammed when the market opened the next day.

Like an idiot, I tried to double down and get it back quickly. Instead of compounding my gains, I compounded my losses. Now Iím ready to try this experiment again.

My biggest problems trading are psychological.

1)   I bank profits and ride out losses, so even though on average I have many more winning trades than losing, in dollar terms my losses are often greater than my gains.
2)   Confirmation biasóthere are so many signals to pay attention to that I over-weight the ones that tell me what I want to hear.
3)   I hit psychological walls at certain dollar amounts--I canít trade $1,000 the same way I trade $100óso success at one level can turn to failure at another.

In an effort to bring more discipline to my trading, I will take this approach:

1)   To minimize confirmation bias, I will keep the charts simple. Just use a few of my favorite lines and indicators.
2)   Make fewer higher percentage trades. If I am having success with a particular pair, stick with that pair until the luck runs out.
3)   Stay all cash if there isnít a good set up.
4)   Part of identifying a good entry is identifying when the set up has failed. Set stop-losses and stick to them.
5)   If I leave a trade angry, I will go all cash for at least 2 days.
6)   Never under any circumstances carry an open trade into a market close. Exit the trade (generally shortly after lunch Friday). If trading is normal, I will get a chance to reenter at the same spot or better. If news drops, I may miss a big gap in my favor, but anticipating news is not trading, itís gambling.

Last time I set 10% a week as a goal. Thatís too aggressive. This time Iím scaling back to 5%, which can be achieved averaging 15-20 pips a day.

The account I will do this with has $60.00 in it. At 5% per week, that $60 will grow into $758 in one year. Ok, still not a lot, but thatís a factor of over 12. At 2 years, $8,700. And that $60, increasing 5% each week is, after 4 years, $1,261,154.40.

Only FOREX makes returns like that possible for the average person. You donít need insider tips, you donít need luck, you donít even need a lot of knowledge. You just need ironclad discipline.

In a separate post I will discuss my first trade.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 01, 2017, 04:14:57 pm
Account: $60
Pair: GBD:USD
Goal: $63.00

I have been trading this pair for a couple months, generally successfully. For the most part I have been shorting rallies and expect to keeping doing that over the next few months, but I see enough of a long signal on the daily and hourly that I will take a long position with a tight stop. Below are the hourly and daily charts showing why I think it’s good for at least 100 pips. If I can get half of that, I will be happy.

GBPUSD is in a bearish channel, which is why I've been shorting rallies. But the turn up on the daily coupled with the bullish bounce off the the tunnel on the hourly suggest this will go higher before it goes lower again. My stop will be set below the tunnel on the hourly.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 01, 2017, 04:57:10 pm
Hey gang, I'd like to announce that Kermit has accepted the role of Global Moderator here on the Forum to help me out while I'm away. Kermit and I go way back on IHUB...ten years now I think. He has a great grasp of technicals and, like me, he's progressed to a point where "less is more" on the charts rather than trying to find the "next great indicator". I know he'll do a great job here.

Welcome Kermit! And I'd like to add that the trading program rules he has listed are definitely something that everyone can benefit from. Discipline, patience, solid technicals, and the ability to take losses are all part of trading if we want to be successful at it. Thanks so much for your help here Kermit and for your many years of charting and trading experience that you bring here to us on the board.  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 01, 2017, 04:59:02 pm
I'm ready for it -been watching and waiting--lol getting better about waiting--bout time THIS OLD DOG LEARNED NEW TRICKs

Yep, that's what it's all about Jav. No matter how much we learn, there's always more we can grasp if we're open to it. Of course, when you get as old as I am, sometimes I have to forget one thing to make room to remember something else...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 02, 2017, 01:40:02 pm
When does the market reopen ?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 02, 2017, 01:42:37 pm
Should be today at 4 central I think Jav. Might be 6 central though...cant remember for sure.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 02, 2017, 01:51:34 pm
Tks just couldn't find info anyplace
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 02, 2017, 01:52:56 pm
Oanda has their open listed at 1800 EST which would actually be 5 pm central time near as I can tell.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 02, 2017, 02:20:06 pm
I expect them to open at the usual Sunday night time--6 PM EST, I think. Jan 3 is a bank holiday in Japan so volume will be light until the European open.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 02, 2017, 05:40:46 pm
GBPUSD opened with a gap down. Holding to see if it bounces back up or keeps going down.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 03, 2017, 12:36:26 am
AUDJPY 1 HOUR-been really watching it
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 03, 2017, 05:10:20 am
GBPUSD closed the gap and headed down again. I took a short position at 1.2271 expecting it to keep heading down in the channel.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 05:39:57 am
GU Monthly

Hey Kermit. Here's a long term chart on GU. My guess is that GU could dip a bit more but overall it's setting up for a nice topside rally. The larger pattern suggests GU is wrapping up a very large ABC correction. Normally, I look for a minimum retrace of 50% of the total pattern, which would actually carry GU back up quite a ways.

I've been working for quite a while on using the TDI as an Elliott Wave counting pattern rather than just counting price action waves. The TDI is very reliable since pretty much all the movements up and down are represented by 5 waves in any given direction. Those 5 waves, in turn, represent one large single wave. The RSI 14 mimics the TDI fast line (green line) very well so on basic charts I use it when I don't have access to my MT4 platform.

This is the Oanda advanced charting screenshot on the GU monthly chart. I'd say that the short positions are pretty well played out at these levels and that the danger lies in a near-term short squeeze resulting in a move back up.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 05:51:00 am
UJ Weekly Chart

Still unchanged from my earlier viewpoint. Expecting to see a nice downward push back towards the zone indicated between 100 and 105. My TP is conservatively set on my short positions to trigger at 107 right above the last gap below 107. This coincides with the current TDI count showing only 4 waves completed in the cycle with a 5th wave down still to come.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 06:04:40 am
NU Weekly Chart

Still looking at long term bearish movement here. The price action, the TDI count, the bearish quad tunnel position...all are pointing towards more downside coming.

Also, notice the envelope around the TDI indicator...the envelope boarders are pushing away from each other while price action has started moving back down. That indicates the downside push should pick up momentum.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 06:16:22 am
NJ Weekly Chart

Looking for at least a retest near the lows, which would coincide with a near term sell off on UJ and NU both.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 03, 2017, 07:31:54 am
Thanks for the heads up, Pennies. I'll keep a close eye on it.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 07:50:22 am
No problem Kermit. Weekly charts have a lot of wiggle room on lower time frames so it could still dip back considerably which would still make your short come up profitable. On first time bullish tunnel breakouts, I usually look for a minimum 61.8 fib retrace before trading the new breakout direction so the pullback on GU seems to be trading very well technically so far based on the last GU chart you posted.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 03, 2017, 08:13:50 am
I'm not seeing any charts or did you not post any?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 08:18:40 am
Hey Heavy. I posted several this morning. They seem to be showing up online and on the mobile platform so far.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 03, 2017, 08:19:47 am
Ok they popped up that time. Operator error I guess. Thanks
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 08:22:05 am
I thought I was the only one who had that problem Heavy. For me, it's always a short cicuit between the keyboard and the operator...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 03, 2017, 08:26:51 am
Not at all pennies. When I click view latest posts, sometimes the charts don't show up. I still have to get a feel for it. No worries though.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 08:31:49 am
Yeah I,ve had to refresh a few times when using the browser version. The push notification on the mobile app though seems to do better about pulling in everything faster.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 08:35:15 am
I like trading weekly charts because there's no stress but when I get bored it's worse than watching paint dry waiting for something to happen...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 03, 2017, 09:21:36 am
Hello Pennies-Kermit Heavy and all-Great charts Pennies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 03, 2017, 09:28:08 am
Morning Jav. Hope all is well on your end. I'm on the sidelines for now. Looks like UJ is like the walking dead lately and refusing to die. If it's following EU, then there looks like more topside movement on that thing IMO. GL2U and all.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 09:59:39 am
UJ dropping back now from the double top. Still playing the weekly so even a slight new high wont bother me but that upper level should be UJ kryptonite for the most part.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 03, 2017, 10:01:36 am
Yeah looks to have formed a nice long bearish wick on the hourly.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 03, 2017, 10:46:33 am
Ok I took the 60+ pips on that UJ tank @ 117.37 I'll jump back in after the retrace.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 03, 2017, 10:48:25 am
Actually 74 pips from 118.13 to 117.39
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 10:57:58 am
Sweet! Nice trading there Heavy.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 03, 2017, 11:11:26 am
Thanks pennies. Still under water on UJ though. I took a 100 pip loss while waiting on it to drop. I'm trying to double up now
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 12:12:59 pm
I'm in for the longer term on the UJ shorts so I'm just letting em ride. It'll hit my 1.07 target sooner or later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 03, 2017, 01:25:48 pm
I'm back in short UJ @ 117.63. Still kinda early I think but I'm in small. I probably should set it and forget it :) :)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 03, 2017, 02:41:17 pm
My 2 cents worth on USD/JPY  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 03:04:38 pm
Yep thats best...it'll drive you crazy if you watch it...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 03, 2017, 03:40:52 pm
Too late pennies I'm already crazy and can't help but watch it like a football game lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 04:05:26 pm
ROFL! It is addictive isn't it? Even when we know we're just beating ourselves up, we just keep coming back for more.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 03, 2017, 04:10:19 pm
Hi Pennies, you mentioned an A-B-C correction on GBPUSD getting ready for a run North. I threw some counts up on this daily chart, do you think this is all wrong?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 03, 2017, 04:14:29 pm
On the UJ situation, everything shorter than the weekly is turning down, with the hour turning down most obviously. May take a short on that if my GU doesn't start moving.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 04:41:47 pm
There are 2 possible counts on GU that I can see, Kermit. The long, really strong moves such as that big candle on your chart are most often associated with Wave 3 price action movements in Elliott Wave theory, so I suspect that the short term daily chart should have that labeled as the start of a Wave 3 down movement rather than Wave 1 down.

The weekly GU chart is really the best way to get a good picture of what's going on overall. This first count assumes that the final Wave 5 down in the larger C wave (a final expanding diagonal price-action pattern) has finished and is ready to move north hard. While I do think GU is prepping for a north move, I don't think this count is quite accurate.

The second chart shows the count that I believe is more accurate. It still predicts a northerly move back to retest the low of Wave A back in June 2008...around 1.3475...before turning south again for one more big dive and one final low. The second chart basically assumes that the larger Wave 3 down movement is finished and we'll see a progressive Wave 4 movement back up to test the upper trendline on the expanding diagonal.

The second chart also goes along with what I'm expecting to see on EU as well...one more move up on EU to wrap up a final E wave in a larger ABCDE (basically a large Wave 4) pattern, and then a sudden bearish drop all the way down to just below parity...somewhere around 0.98 or 0.99. I would expect GU to tank along with EU since it will most likely be attributed to some bad news out of Europe as a whole.

So near term, GU long positions are still the best bet to take advantage of the smaller Wave 4 back up. I say small, but that's actually better than 1200 plus pips north of here...it just looks small because of the larger time frame...LOL!

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 03, 2017, 06:44:48 pm
1200 pips seems fairly large.

Thanks Pennies.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 06:57:21 pm
No problem Kermit. Here's a close up view of that internal wave count in that expanding diagonal. If Wave 3 is indeed finished to the downside, a Wave 4 retrace is typically 38.2 % of the total length of Wave 3. That would put us back at 1.3256 which is still shy of the 1.3475 to 1.35 target but still well within the parameters of a typical Wave 4 movement.

So that's only a bit over 1000 pips away...


GU Daily Chart...The fibs in red are from the large Wave A on the weekly...the one in yellow is measuring only the length of the proposed Wave 3 in the diagonal...notice that they are relatively close together. From a weekly perspective, the difference is very minimal.



Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 07:08:24 pm
I'm ready for it -been watching and waiting--lol getting better about waiting--bout time THIS OLD DOG LEARNED NEW TRICKs

Hey Jav, I think I'm gonna bail on the NU shorts at 0.68, just above that 50% fib retrace level...just in case it tries to get sneaky and head back up afterwards.

NU Daily chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 03, 2017, 07:14:42 pm
looks like a good spot Pennies-- nzd/usd
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 03, 2017, 08:21:30 pm
Pennies take a look at AUD/JPY WEEKLY-should go down am i right
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 03, 2017, 08:23:01 pm
Looks just like the NJ chart Jav so I'd say yes, its likely to dive.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 03, 2017, 09:19:17 pm
sure looks good to me-never had looked a weekly chart before-maybe you've opened my eyes tks
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 04, 2017, 07:21:32 am
Weekly charts are very easy to trade Jav because there's no stress involved like there is with day trading short time frames. But, you have to be willing to basically set it and forget it. If you try to sit and watch it during the day like we do the small time frames, it will make you pull your hair out.

For weekly charts, I typically recommend that you use no more than 2% of your total available margin in your account per trade....1% is actually better. That way, you can handle the larger movements that occur. A weekly chart can produce a few hundred pips one way or another for or against your position until it finally moves in your direction....sometimes more. That sounds like a lot but it isn't if you've adjusted your position accordingly.

One of the misconceptions and hindrances for a lot of traders is that pips is their only focus, so they avoid longer time frames like the weekly because it sends shivers down their spine to think of having to hold a position that may go several hundred pips against them. A single pip actually has no meaning at all if you really break it down and think about it. The only two things that matter is the value of that pip based on the number of units you are trading and the percentage it represents to you . So 1 pip of NU at 1000 units is vastly different than 1 NU pip at 100,000 units....10 cents per pip vs. 10 dollars per pip. And even that 100,000 units isn't relevant unless you take into account the percentage that it reflects based on your total account size. If I trade 100,000 units on NU and I only have a few thousand dollars in my trading account, that's a huge risk and can ruin the account quickly. But if I have an account with 100 grand in it, the 100,000 unit size is easily affordable and represents no real risk...it's just another trade.

So to trade the weekly or daily or even monthly chart is no big deal if you just adjust your expectations and your trade size accordingly. Once you get your mindset focused on percentages only, the rest takes care of itself.  :-)



Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 04, 2017, 10:29:05 am
Looks like the FOMC may be the trigger to tank UJ for a while. Should be around 2pm EST if I read it correctly
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 04, 2017, 01:13:56 pm
Well that wasn't convincing.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 04, 2017, 02:35:37 pm
Yeah, looks like they didn't have much to offer in the way of market movement today, Heavy.

It's very possible that the market will be stuck in a rut until inauguration day on the 20th. We might wind up just sitting on our hands until then.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 04, 2017, 07:20:10 pm
Pennies to learn more about weekly chart trading i may run it on a demo--and see how it works
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 04, 2017, 07:23:57 pm
You'll find it works the same overall Jav. The same trading techniques work well. What I do is trade the weekly charts and then trade smaller time frames while waiting on the larger time frames to pan out.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 04, 2017, 07:32:00 pm
Aud/jpy 1 hour-head and shoulder setting up
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 07, 2017, 08:55:55 am
Hey gang, just checking in. Looks like UJ is going to work out nicely although a retest near the highs one more time is probably in the cards. Hope anyone caught in the ice and snow made out ok. We've got lots of ice but that's about it.

Everybody have a great weekend.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 07, 2017, 04:06:06 pm
For my weekly post mortem, my account started at $60.00, my primary play was GU long, followed by GU short after it touched the top of the channel.

And it pretty much did just that except it took about a day longer than I anticipated to get going and during that time, I dinked around with the daily ups and downs trying o scalp a few pips while I waited. That turned out to be a mistake as every time I was up by 50 pips, I'd set a stop loss just in the green, which it came back and hit every time. And then when it made the move I built my week around, I wasn't ready and it moved without me.

So...3 trades. All three were green. For a total gain of $0.30. (That's a whopping 0.5%!)

Oops...

Tomorrow I'll take a look at the coming week.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 07, 2017, 04:08:14 pm
Don't you hate it when the market plays whack a mole Kermit? Lol! Those whip saws back and forth drive me crazy.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 08, 2017, 06:16:26 am
Hey gang, I'm on to something here that could be a real game changer for all of us. I'm still testing it but basically it's a no-brainer trade setup that allows you to do the following...

1. Trade on any time frame, even the 1 minute chart.
2. Trade any pair.
3. Be able to open a chart during your favorite trading time and be able to ascertain a trade entry almost instantly.
4. Ride the trend to maximum effect.
5. No indicators, no technical analysis involved other than just very basic understanding of swing points.
6. Easily get rid of any pre-conceived notions of where it's going, what it's going to do, etc....you simply follow a basic set of rules and let the market go where it goes.


I'll post more with some demonstration videos as soon as I've been able to test it more thoroughly. I want to make sure the results are consistent before I let it loose.  :-)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 08, 2017, 08:30:40 am
That would be something, Pennies! It sounds like the holy grail of trading, almost something you could write code to do for you. I look forward it seeing how it works.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 08, 2017, 08:34:43 am
Week 2:
Account: $60.30
Goal: $63.32
Pair: GBD:USD, long
(Under ideal scenario: account $63.00, Goal $66.15)
 
Week 1 was a disappointment, but not a disaster. My trades were all green but for negligible amounts of money, mostly because I rode out retraces and gave back profits.

I looked at 3 pairs this weekóEU, GU, and NU.

EU weekly chart attached. Last week, the EU broke a double bottom and pulled back to test the support turned resistance. The week ended with the pair sitting right at the support line, whether it holds or breaks should indicate the next move, but it hasnít held or broken yet. So thatís a wait and see.

NU daily chart attached. NU gives the clearest signal across charts, but thereís very little volatility, so never mind.

GU daily chart attached. GU was down, then up, then down again this week, finishing on strong down move (the dollar finished strong because of Fed statements concerning 2017 rate hikes). The daily engulfing candle suggests it has more drop in it.

GU is not as clear as the NU, but Iíve been playing it for a while so Iíll be looking for a short entry around 1.231

Caveat: As Pennies noted last week, GU is due for a strong correction on the longer charts, so I will keep my eyes open for signs of it starting.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 08, 2017, 08:35:37 am
Nah, not really a holy grail per se, Kermit. But it is very systematic. It produces losses and wins but the wins far outweigh the losses. Basically, you lose during consolidation (or make small gains) and you bank big time on trend runs. The big thing that stands out is that you never change the strategy regardless of whether or not the trade wins or loses. It probably could be coded easily by an MT4 programmer. I dabbled with coding for a while but never really stuck with it...takes a while to learn.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 08, 2017, 12:47:09 pm
Well i'm all ears Pennies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 08, 2017, 12:48:24 pm
Kermit-what moving averages are those 3 lines
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 08, 2017, 01:19:41 pm
Hi Jav. They're EMAs 144, 169, and 196 (12, 13, and 14 squared). It's the tunnel from an early Simplegreen post that has formed the backbone of my charts for years. The shorter trend line is the EMA 12.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 08, 2017, 01:34:30 pm
Thanks Kermit-i need to addthose again to my charts-
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 08, 2017, 01:39:39 pm
Kirmet can't get my emas lined up with your on NU daily-i'm using emas on the close  not simple -what are your settings on thos MAS
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 08, 2017, 07:04:38 pm
I trie to upload my chart template, but couldn't--unrecognized file type.

I trade with Oanda, but XM's platform works on Mac, Oanda's does not. One possible issue--XM charts do not include the weekend. Some charts do, leading to different trend lines. I've always wondered what affect that has on the tech. Especially shorter time periods, where it makes a huge difference early in the week.

I'll try to do better, but might not be able to until tomorrow--gotta put the little one to bed right now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 08, 2017, 10:46:30 pm
yea that probably makes a difference-can't wait to see what Pennies has up his sleeve now  lol always good
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 09, 2017, 12:15:13 pm
NU seems to be forming a 79 pip cup and handle pattern on the 15min. Just waiting for the break of the rim then she should be off topside.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 09, 2017, 12:39:04 pm
Sounds very likely Heavy. The daily chart shows what looks to be a leading down-sloping diagonal wedge. That's either Wave A or Wave 1 down. That's usually followed by a bounce back up to no higher than a 61.8 retrace of the entire wedge length. After that, it should set up for a really nice drop to at least a 1.618 fib extension beyond the length of the wedge down. I'm not at the computer right now but I'll post a chart when I get back.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 09, 2017, 04:29:58 pm
Hey Heavy, I finally made it back to the house after many harrowing adventures today...LOL!

Ok, back to the NU chart...this is the weekly view. TDI wave count, box breakdown and retest with rejection, even the smaller uptrend channel that it was in that has broken to the downside...lots of things pointing to a nice sell off coming, both near term and long term. Very short term, it could still easily bounce up to 0.71 or even 0.72 but I've seen these things make small corrections and then have the bottom fall out.

I'm holding only one short position but I'll be out at 0.65 but it could be a while before it tanks. That small uptrend channel that shows a breakdown has yet to be retested so that could still get you up to 0.71 or slightly above. Hard to say on the near term stuff.

NU Weekly Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 09, 2017, 07:14:59 pm
Thanks for the chart Pennies-NOW for another subject how long are you going to keep us in suspense about your new find
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 09, 2017, 09:12:23 pm
Hey Jav. I'm not so sure it was a good find. I did stumble across something but as I checked it out in the backtester, I began to see more setup failures than I wanted. However, I haven't given up on it. It's kind of like hunting for an ingredient list for a great soup...something is still missing...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 09, 2017, 10:09:25 pm
Something i have been looking at-and testing on my charts-looks interesting-yes there still is some loses but might help you stay in a trend longer-i have it on my 1hour chart
http://www.ino.com/blog/2009/02/exact-swing-points-support-and-resistance/#.WHRNEfkrI2x
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 09, 2017, 10:16:18 pm
Maybe you need to add Garlic to that soup-lol
well when you get it going let us know-maybe we could help-you never know
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 09, 2017, 10:20:09 pm
Yep, I'll get something together and throw it out there. Honestly, I still haven't found anything better than the TDI wave counting method. It's by far the most accurate system I've ever seen.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 09, 2017, 10:33:39 pm
Ok testing the new SWING METHOD-here is my chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 09, 2017, 10:57:15 pm
There are some similarities between what you have there Jav and what I had in mind. Some things are different though.

I'll try to get something together in the morning and post it to show what I'm seeing and we can get the board in on it and maybe come up with a solution together.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 09, 2017, 11:09:25 pm
Things could get interesting if that last low point on the chart gives way. That will shift the whole daily chart to the downside.

UJ Daily...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 09, 2017, 11:57:00 pm
it's a thought AUD/USD 4 hour chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 10, 2017, 12:01:57 am
Pennies maybe all of us can work together and add and subtract-to get to the best trade-able system--i believe LESS IS MORE as they say-don't want to add TOO MUCH GARLIC to the pot-but gotta have the right amount of seasonings
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 10, 2017, 12:16:58 am
Ok Jav, I'll use your AU 4 hour chart as an example of what I'm looking at. It's pretty straight forward.

Here it is step by step...I forgot to note it on the chart but the remaining 25% of the trade at Step 5 would be set to TP at the 3rd box level. With the stop loss set to break even +1 pip, there's no more risk in the trade at that point plus you've already booked 75 % of the profits already.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 10, 2017, 12:34:22 am
Boy gotta look at that in the morning-looks like you have some darvas in there too-lol will have fresher brain in the morn-looks good thanks
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 10, 2017, 12:37:51 am
lol i see you have used "YOUR CRAYONS" on my chart --we've got to hone in on this--SIMPLE but effective-As i said i'll look at it better tomorrow
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 10, 2017, 12:38:29 am
Here's another potential setup as well Jav. This is the UCAD 15 minute chart...time frame or pair makes no difference using this system...it's cut and dried.

Waiting on the 2nd breakout as a confirmation keeps you out of bad trades. Remember I also mentioned a trend following system...using this method will keep you in a trade until a potential real reversal of the trend is setting up, rather than getting scared out of the trade on a dead cat bounce.

This chart gives a perfect example of why we should wait on confirmation before taking the opposing possible reversal trade. There's a new potential reversal setting up now but no confirmation yet.

UCAD 15 Minute Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 10, 2017, 12:43:36 am
Also you and Simple brought us that box movement-3 box max
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 10, 2017, 12:49:23 am
Pennies i am partial to the 15 charts-this shows me i can still trade them-i will be copying your placement of swing spots-on usd/cad-well this old dog gotta go to bed-thanks so much-let's all work together
 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 10, 2017, 01:01:29 am
Yep, Simple introduced it and showed us how to modify the fib tool to place the boxes automatically instead of stacking them manually. Heavy also brought up the box texhnique a while back on the board. When good techniques like these are coupled with a solid understanding of pure price action, it helps us stay out of bad trades and only take the ones with odds stacked in our favor.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 10, 2017, 11:48:57 am
i remember that now-will try to find his post-seems also i wrote it down someplace
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 10, 2017, 02:08:06 pm
i found the post from Simple
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=83853610
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 10, 2017, 08:00:42 pm
Pennies an old post of yours
very good
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=92954194
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 10, 2017, 08:03:01 pm
Yep, part of that came from Simple also. It basically gives you the boxes and the key levels inside each box to watch for.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 10, 2017, 10:44:58 pm
UJ 30 Minute Chart

Just a flipper position while I'm waiting on the longer term UJ shorts to play out. Shorted just above 116, TP set for 115.55, just above where I'm expecting the target.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 11, 2017, 12:02:21 am
AJ 4 Hour is that a Head and Shoulder setting up
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 11, 2017, 12:03:29 am
Looks good Pennies u/j
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 11, 2017, 12:03:45 am
Not sure Jav but it doesn't look like a standard head and shoulders pattern.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 11, 2017, 12:04:49 am
Yep, in the green now Jav.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 11, 2017, 12:07:55 am
what a go--i Need that AJ to breakdown
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 11, 2017, 12:12:42 am
I was in the green earlier this morning on my NJ short now down 23 pips :'(
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 11, 2017, 07:23:02 am
Went to bed and just left my UJ flipper trade open. Looks like it finished up a 5 wave TDI count with a direct hit on the FE 100 just like it was supposed to. Seems like I'm always in early...LOL!

I'd still be looking for one more deep retrace before it can move higher later considering the current wave count but I'll still probably bail out much earlier than my intended target on this one...gotta follow the rules on these trades. Hopium and dopium are not recommended for trading.  ;D

UJ 30 Minute Chart with TDI Wave Count...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 11, 2017, 05:39:31 pm
Bailed out early on the UJ short this morning and then got back in later for another trade that I forgot I had placed...LOL!

The 2nd one hit my original TP I was looking for and went well beyond. Very nice sell off today. As we go along on UJ, we'll start seeing better selling days like today.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 11, 2017, 06:51:42 pm
Just a follow up on the UJ daily chart I posted before. I said we needed a break below that key level and we got that today. But, just a break below won't do the job. It needs to show a full bodied red candle where the body closes below the level. Just a push below the level and a bounce back up doesn't qualify.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 11, 2017, 10:44:03 pm
NU Weekly Chart

Quickly approaching the retest of the broken trendline here. Time to add to the short position.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 11, 2017, 11:52:36 pm
We got the bearish candle close with the body below the previous low so we're good to go. Another close below that low will seal the deal but the price could easily bounce before that happens.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 12, 2017, 04:44:35 pm
Here's an annoying situation. No matte how far I back out, I can't get the chart to show me what's below--the pound has not been lower against the dollar during the period captured by the chart. In any case, I'm having a good week going short on the GU. I screwed it up a bit by jumping in too soon in the Trump presser bounce, but it's coming back down now so I should be ok.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 12, 2017, 04:46:27 pm
The daily gives a better sense of why it matters--the channel has moved off the chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 12, 2017, 05:01:39 pm
I've noticed the same thing on some MT4 charts Kermit. Something to do with a limited history feed. BTW that hourly GU chart looks to be setting up for a nice pop north.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 12, 2017, 05:10:58 pm
Long GU at 1.2163. TP set for 1.24 even.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 12, 2017, 06:52:24 pm
Good luck. I'm backing out of this week's trades, hope to be all-cash by tomorrow morning and will reassess over the weekend.

This was a good week in house frogger and I don't want to screw it up by jumping in to something at the wrong time.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 12, 2017, 06:54:51 pm
Yep always a good idea Kermit. Fridays have a bad tendency to erase a week's gains. I stick to primarily longer term stuff so I'm willing to let it ride for a while.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 13, 2017, 07:53:43 am
Morning Pennies. Looks like NU eventually make to the 71 target which is about 88 pips above the cup and handle rim. Good call on it. The pattern played out finally but took it a while to get there.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 13, 2017, 08:05:02 am
Yep Heavy, its banging that bottom trendline now that it broke below on the weekly line chart. I'm short and holding for a .65 target later on.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 13, 2017, 11:40:55 am
Yall will appreciate this-the last two days i come on here and yall talking about Pennies chart well i couldn't see it went hunting backward post for it was going to ask where it was-at first when i read Pennies post i thought he had forgot to post the chart--well finally realized i wasn't logged in-did you know if you're not logged in -no charts appear lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 13, 2017, 11:48:01 am
Yep thats right Jav. I had someone else that ran into the same issue. Wasnt logged in and couldnt see the charts

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 13, 2017, 04:08:25 pm
Weekly Wrap Up:

I played only GU short and did quite well. I almost blew it on Trump's Wednesday presser by doing exactly what I should not have--I was already up almost 20% on the week and started the press conference all cash and intending to stay that way. But then I saw GU jump 100 pips for what I considered no good reason so I took a short position figuring on easy money on the correction--always a mistake. It kept going another 150 pips. I got lucky, though, as it came back down and I eased out with a small gain.

Here are my numbers for the week:

Start: $60.30
Goal: $63.32 = 5%
Attained: $74.94 = 24%

This is a long-term plan to make consistent gains of 5% a week. Using the power of compounding, one could take $60 to 1.25 million in 4 years at 5% a week.

Each week I am comparing my actual performance against this ideal. It was inevitable that my real total would diverge from the ideal and it was my intent, if I fell more than 10% short of the goal, to stop comparing my performance against the 5% plan because otherwise I would try to make up lost ground and destroy my account through recklessness.

Now I'm in a position where I am almost 15% ahead (the ideal has me at $66.15). I think for now I will carry on with the 5% goal, but if I get 20% ahead, then I will get more conservative, cutting back to a 4% weekly goal (which would be 5% of the ideal).

We'll see what next week brings. I will post my next focus on Sunday.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 13, 2017, 04:19:52 pm
Outstanding Kermit! Those are massive gains for a single week...very well played. 😀

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 13, 2017, 05:37:10 pm
Outstanding Kermit! Those are massive gains for a single week...very well played.

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Thanks, Pennies. But as you know, the key here is consistency. Can I follow up my green week with another green week?

There are a lot of emotional pitfalls, and one that has killed me more times than any other is Master of the Universe syndrome--when you have a few big successes and start thinking you can do no wrong. I've wiped out the account more than once by going in too big because I thought I couldn't lose.

This week will be key--keeping my bets small and well planned, being happy with normal gains and not trying to get another big week. From a strict discipline standpoint, I should probably take a few days or a week off.

But I won't.




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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 13, 2017, 05:46:39 pm
I know exactly what you mean...been there, done that, and have the t-shirt to prove it...lol! Feeling bullet proof is a huge problem in trading. Its just as bad as revenge trading when you take losses. I actually dont even set goals anymore so I have effectively released the pressure valve I placed upon myself. I just take what the market gives me. I dont strive anymore for daily pip targets or weekly gain goals. Its actually one of the single best decisions I ever made because it freed me up to trade the long term charts without having to worry about news releases or weird movements that appear out of nowhere. Now trading is just a boring, systematic method where I simply follow a set of rules with no variation, win, lose or draw. Took me a long time and a lot of losses to reach that point though.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 14, 2017, 01:59:02 pm
I’ve been playing GU pretty consistently for the past month or so. I think the longer term trend is going to continue down, but in the shorter term, it’s less clear and Pennies may well be right to go long to 1.24, which would bring it back to the top of the channel, as you can see on the daily. EU also suggests some near term dollar weakness.

NU bucks the trend and suggests a short. The last two candles on the daily show a lower high with the candle butting up against the bottom of the channel.

Since I like pound weakness and the charts are suggesting dollar weakness, I may switch pairs and go long EUR:GBP. I don’t know that I’ve ever traded that one before, so I may change my mind. But right now, I think that’s the way I’m going.

Start: $74.94
Goal: $78.69
(Under ideal scenario: account $66.15, Goal $69.46)

Charts attached: NU, EU, GU, EG dailies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 14, 2017, 07:27:21 pm
Kermit was just going to put up a chart on NZD/USD -using Daily -4 Hour and 1 Hour fibs --then trading down to  the 15 min chart-saw it mentioned someplace Don't know if it was simple or someone else
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 14, 2017, 07:58:01 pm
Simple came up with that one Jav. Its a great way to help confirm other methods.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 14, 2017, 08:03:17 pm
Hey, Jav. What are you thinking for NZD:USD? I'm thinking down, but with dollar weakness in other pairs, maybe NZD:??? Is a better choice.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 14, 2017, 08:10:45 pm
I vote for down on NU Kermit. The weekly is set up for a nice drop. I have 2 shorts with a TP of .65. Conversely, pairs like Aud/Nzd are set up for a nice pop. I'm long there with a TP of 1.11.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 15, 2017, 09:36:49 am
Yen Weekly Chart

I posted this chart a while back but it's still lining up nicely with what I've been looking at for a while. The larger channel is still fully intact and the MACD shows a clear breakout and retest of it's trendline. The nature of price action in general tells us that, at minimum, the Yen will climb back towards the 100 level which will effectively tank UJ back towards 100 as well. My target on the UJ chart is only 107 but analysis shows a low target of 102 bare minimum.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 15, 2017, 09:44:21 am
GU Weekly Chart

Best wave count scenario is that Wave 3 down is complete here and that GU is ready to move back up for a while towards the top of the final expanding diagonal channel. I would expect the GU rally to take us to 1.3256 minimum and possibly as high as 1.3766 before moving down again later, maybe as low as the FE 100 target at 0.9521.

Longs are suggested for right now since price has consolidated at the FE 61.8 target based on the larger ABC correction pattern.

Notice the TDI contracting triangle pattern. The next move up should cause the TDI to break above the triangle. After that, I always look for the TDI to move back down into the triangle which normally forms one final low in price before heading north for a larger bullish run.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 15, 2017, 12:22:06 pm
Kermit i'm voting for down on nzd/usd
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 15, 2017, 03:10:16 pm
We have about an hour till open but pre-market activity shows GU took a dip down to around 1.20 in the last hour or so...an almost 200 pip gap down. Interesting...good thing I only take small positions on this stuff...LOL! Kermit has a great rule...close everything out before the weekend.

But, that does put us right around a key retrace level that I watch like a hawk...a TDI wave 4 retrace target of 71.6 on the 4 hour chart. Usually, that gives us a nice bounce afterwards.

We'll see how it goes...
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 15, 2017, 03:18:12 pm
Sounds crazy, but I think this gap down on GU that's gonna show up at the opening in 45 minutes or so is gonna wind up causing me to raise my top end target from 1.24 to 1.29.

So I did...TP now changed on my GU long to 1.29.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 15, 2017, 03:59:17 pm
I was just thinking--I know you play the long game and take small positions relative to your bank so this won't matter much to you, but to me it's a demonstration of why you don't hold over the weekend.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 15, 2017, 04:03:05 pm
Exactly Kermit. Small time frame players need to follow the good advice you gave...be out of the market before the close Friday.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 15, 2017, 04:04:14 pm
This talk of AUD:NZD, a pair I haven't played in years, reminds me of one of those magic days in my early trading. I don't know why this happened, but that pair was cycling up and down almost exactly 100 pips two to three times an hour--over time it went nowhere, but the 15 minute chart looked like an oscillator. Over and over again for about 10 hours.

I posted about it on Simple's board. I never found out why it happened, but I pulled about 800 pips in an afternoon without even trying. Of course, as I said, this was early in my FOREX career so I pissed it all away within a couple weeks.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 15, 2017, 04:06:49 pm
Those channels are awesome if you can catch em right Kermit. They're basically ATM machines till they break out.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 15, 2017, 04:46:37 pm
Added a small GU long for grins and giggles at 1.2041. TP still set for 1.29 on all orders.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 09:22:22 am
Quick day trade. Shorting Ucad at 1.3155, TP set for 1.3125.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 10:51:44 am
Ucad had one more light volume pop that drove it straight into a key supply zone just above 1.3170. Should drop like a rock now, probably well below my 1.3125 target.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 16, 2017, 11:53:34 am
I expect my main play for the week to be AUD:NZD long, but as of last night it wasn't quite set up yet so for now I am short NZD:USD.

Any short-term GBP play is gambling. Maybe tomorrow after May's thingy, but for now, no thank you.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 12:07:20 pm
I dont blame you Kermit. GU can appear pretty daunting on anything except the weekly chart. I definitely wouldn't day trade it on smaller time frames. Its liable to have some wild swings in the near future.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 12:24:26 pm
Carney speaks in a few minutes. Curious to see what the pound does with him.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 01:26:00 pm
NZD/JPY 4 HOUR-hoping it finally breaks out of this cycle--lower for me--keeps crossing that Mean Line/median -maybe it will retest the low of 12/23
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 01:30:38 pm
On NJ Jav, throw a fib retrace between the last weekly low below 70 and the last high around 83.70. You should see NJ retrace all the way back to at least the 61.8 on that weekly scale.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 01:45:05 pm
Tks Pennies i'll be watching that chart-yep you're really liking those weekly charts-might have to start looking at them too
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 01:46:37 pm
They sure are easy to trade Jav...and a lot less strrssful as long as you adjust entries accordingly.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 01:48:01 pm
here is the weekly n/j -hopefully fibbed it right
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 01:49:18 pm
Thats it Jav. Look for a retrace back to 75 for a TP on the shorts.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 02:01:02 pm
well sure looks promising-thanks for a new bone for this OLD DOG lol
Never too old to learn something new-at 70 i still learn something new everyday
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 02:03:24 pm
Pennies let me ask you a question-What is the logic behind your shooting toward the 61.8 retrace
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 02:09:12 pm
Thats the most common retrace target for a TDI wave 4 retrace which is whats coming for NJ.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 02:24:11 pm
when you get to a computer-could you bring up the nj weekly with your tdi count
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 02:28:54 pm
Sure thing Jav. I'll be back later this evening. I'll post one then.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 06:15:01 pm
UCAD 4 Hour Chart

Just got back home and realized that UCAD broke a long term line chart support line and retested it. The drop coming next could be considerable. But I think I'll still be out at 1.31 for now just to be safe.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 06:21:52 pm
when you get to a computer-could you bring up the nj weekly with your tdi count

Here ya go Jav. NJ monthly chart...this one shows the TDI wave count more easily. Basically, we're working on a larger Wave 4 move back up on the TDI. But inside the larger Wave 4 movement we always have a smaller 5 wave movement. We've completed the 3rd wave inside that larger 4th wave. So we need a move back down on the TDI to that small Wave 4 I have marked in blue. That will typically result in a move back down on price to between the 61.8 and 71.6 fib, which is the area I have marked off between 73.30 and 74.48.

NJ Monthly chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 07:12:06 pm
Recognizing Hidden TDI Divergence

Most of us are aware of either negative or positive divergence with many indicators. But there's also a lesser known phenomenon known as hidden divergence. This occurs when price action and the indicator in question diverge along a given trend. Basically, in this case we have a current downtrend on the 4 hour UCAD chart. Price has broken the bottom channel but along the way, the TDI has shown 3 higher highs. But price action has shown 3 lower highs. This tells us that the down trend is still in full effect here and that a hard drive to the downside is very likely with a new low still to come.

If you go back through the charts and look for divergences like these, they occur far more often than you may think. It's definitely beneficial to become familiar with this setup since it's a great way to ride with the trend in a continuation move.

UCAD 4 Hour Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 16, 2017, 07:54:46 pm
Recognizing Hidden TDI Divergence

Most of us are aware of either negative or positive divergence with many indicators. But there's also a lesser known phenomenon known as hidden divergence. This occurs when price action and the indicator in question diverge along a given trend. Basically, in this case we have a current downtrend on the 4 hour UCAD chart. Price has broken the bottom channel but along the way, the TDI has shown 3 higher highs. But price action has shown 3 lower highs. This tells us that the down trend is still in full effect here and that a hard drive to the downside is very likely with a new low still to come.

If you go back through the charts and look for divergences like these, they occur far more often than you may think. It's definitely beneficial to become familiar with this setup since it's a great way to ride with the trend in a continuation move.

UCAD 4 Hour Chart...
I got another reason expect the cad to strengthen against the dollar--I'm expecting a chunk of US cash in early summer. If history is a guide, expect parity around the time I need to convert the money. Shortly after, the cad will crash back to these levels.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 08:03:32 pm
Geez, that would suck Kermit. I hope your luck is better than that...lol! I can see a move to 1.22 coming on the weekly chart with a possible exaggerated move to 1.1364. But hopefully you'll be able to cash out at a decent rate anyway before any of that happens.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 08:06:35 pm
Thanks Pennies for the charts and tdi count
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 08:10:10 pm
NZD/USD Daily
nice channel and look at that TDI what you think Pennies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 08:49:55 pm
Yep, and the weekly NU line chart channel break shows that price may actually break well below that channel that you have there Jav.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 08:58:27 pm
CAD Weekly Chart

This is just the pure CAD currency. We have a dual breakout of both the RSI and MACD along with a retest of the trendline, which indicates another push higher for CAD in general, which should weaken pairs like USD/CAD.

I try to use multiple forms of confirmation when I look at long term charts to give me the best possible odds of a successful trade. Stockcharts.com allows us to view these currencies as stand-alone rather than paired with other currencies. This will often give us a completely different view of things which can either confirm our thoughts or give us pause for thought before diving into a trade.

Again, the long term charts are great for this type of trading. As most of you know, I'm a big fan of using a collection of tools to provide myself with a checklist before taking a trade. This is one of those tools I use quite often.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 09:21:33 pm
Pennies-tks for opinion on nu--and i need to bring up cad-yen-etc-good idea to get a better rounded out idea what might be going to transpire
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 09:29:29 pm
Pennies how can you just get the chart unattached from the rest of the page
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 09:34:36 pm
I just take a snapshot of the page on stockcharts and then use the microsoft paint program to crop it so I can save just the chart.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 09:40:18 pm
is there a way to detach it-to put it on my other monitor
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 09:42:13 pm
If you click the Annotate button it will lift the chart off and allow you to drag it over I think Jav.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 09:50:02 pm
ok tks i'll try it
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 09:57:40 pm
nope that doesn't work use to be another free chart site that would let you unattach -can't remember it's name :'(
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 09:58:36 pm
Not sure Jav. I'm only familiar with Stockcharts

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 10:10:04 pm
ok-i'll just have to work around it--also i wanted aud but they only have audcad etc-is there another symbol for the aussie

also on that other chart i was talking about -you had to put $ before the like $XAU
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 10:11:20 pm
I think $aud on stockcharts will give you just the aussie currency

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 10:20:06 pm
ok
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 10:22:05 pm
nope not buy itself just attached to another currency-guess i'll search the web
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 16, 2017, 10:28:23 pm
Pennies-do you think this is it-hope so cause looks like aud is about to fall
https://au.investing.com/indices/australian-dollar-index-chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 11:16:50 pm
I disagree on an AU fall Jav. Here are 2 monthly charts side by side...on the left is the line chart and on the right is the candlestick chart with the TDI wave count.

Wave 3 down is pretty much done. Now we need to see a Wave 4 up rally that should take us back to between 0.95 and 0.98 roughly...maybe as high as parity.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 16, 2017, 11:50:23 pm
NZD/USD Daily
nice channel and look at that TDI what you think Pennies

Forgot to mention this Jav...this is the larger Wave count on NJ. The long term lower target is just below 61 at 60.912. Of course, it'll drop back first on the smaller wave count chart that I posted earlier and then one more move back up first. After that is complete, it's going to get very ugly.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 12:48:24 am
GBP/NZD Monthly Chart

Call me crazy but I gotta be a buyer here gang. Long at 1.69526, TP set for 2.1, a bit over 4000 pips north of here.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 07:18:49 am
Well, that was an interesting move on GU. Typically, when I take long term chart positions I don't often get rewarded so quickly. I woke up to find both GU longs and my GBP/NZD long into very green territory so I took profit on all 3 trades for now.

So I wanted to take the opportunity to post the old public trading account I still keep around. Keep in mind, I sometimes play much higher risk in this account than I do in my primary account...this one is just for grins and giggles. The link for the account is at the bottom of this post. I also do a lot of experimenting in this account so the swings are pretty crazy...just ignore that. I don't really worry about blowing this account up because I just don't keep much money in it, at least not for right now.

But I did take small proportion trades in the public account along with my personal account. I wanted you guys to see why I say that on the long term charts, what we would normally think of as large pip movements don't bother me at all if they go against me after I take a position.

The account shows that I took a total of 636.10 pips profit this morning on those 3 trades. That sounds pretty good but the percentage of profit on the account was only 1.18% on that 636.10 pips.

This is why I say that only percentages matter...not pips. Pips are irrelevant until they are assigned a value based on number of units traded and, more importantly, on how that reflects on your risk/reward based on your account size.

Don't try to get rich overnight and don't take big risks. Slow and steady moves the wheel.   ;)

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/nettechs/waves/1539708
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 17, 2017, 07:49:15 am
Congrats on a big hit! If I had to guess, I would have guessed May's comments would have driven it down further, and maybe the long play would come in this afternoon. So I'm glad I just stepped aside. I probably won't play GBP again this week.

NZD:USD has gone against me a bit (after looking good yesterday). But we will see what today brings...
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 07:58:31 am
Thanks Kermit. I just took the technical play and let the rest ride. The sweet thing about the long term setups is the powers that be (either talking heads or political pundits) don't really affect the pairs much on a big scale. They can swing them a bit if they start blabbering but overall, techs win the day.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 08:00:34 am
NJ Monthly Chart Trade in Play

Just took a short on NJ here. The near term wave count on the TDI shows that we're ready to come back down to the pink FE 61.8 just above 68 so I set a conservative TP of 69.

Longer term, after the smaller TDI waves play out to a total count of 5, I expect NJ to retreat a great deal further, probably back to between 58.70 and 61.

EDIT: Let's make that 75 as a TP on the even smaller TDI wave count setup. Almost forgot to check the daily wave count...LOL!

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 08:13:10 am
NU has a bit of slack in it in this area but I'm not really worried about it overall. Sooner or later, the channel break shown on the line chart here will kick it down. I'm still expecting to hit my 0.65 target on the downside over the next few weeks.


Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 08:28:58 am
UCAD Chart Recap

Just a follow up to show you what I meant about that hidden divergence driving UCAD down. I didn't hold the trade that long because the 4 hour charts are basically a day-trading time frame for me but it illustrates the concept. It dropped as expected.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 08:42:28 am
Added NU short here near 0.72. TP on all short trades still set for 0.65.

Gotta run gang. Everybody have a great day.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 10:34:10 am
Modified TP on NU shorts to .66 instead of .65. There's a chance it could stop before the .65 target is hit.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 17, 2017, 03:04:33 pm
Not meaningful yet, but still interesting.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 04:01:01 pm
NU is hitting a critical supply zone here around .7220. Risking a flipper short position here with a pretty quick dip back to .7125.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 06:07:43 pm
Closed out the NU flipper for 1% profit. I risked a heavier than normal short and I dont really like Asian session trading so my trigger finger got itchy. Plenty of time to catch another trade later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 17, 2017, 06:38:02 pm
well just got on computer--what caused au and nu to rise--any thoughts
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 07:00:20 pm
Just general dollar weakness Jav. But NU is hitting a critical juncture point here. I'm basing my trades on weekly and monthly charts though so these movements aren't really concerning me much. NU will tank at some point soon.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 17, 2017, 07:33:24 pm
Think Trump is hurting the dollar now-not really political and sure know don't  much economics--indecision /  and alot of what ifs i think is a factor
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 17, 2017, 11:11:55 pm
NU 4 Hour Chart...wait for the short signal

I've added a couple of trades along the way here but the signal for the final top will come when the TDI breaks below it's current trend line and then rises once more to retest it. I fully expect NU to hit the overall 61.8 fib retrace dead on at 0.7246 or so before it tanks hard.

These choppy uptrending channels always give a nice, clear signal on the TDI before they fall apart. I'll keep the board posted on when it's time to load the boat. :-)

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 18, 2017, 05:24:06 pm
Pennies sure appreciate this chart with the heads up  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 18, 2017, 10:11:22 pm
UJ 4 Hour Chart

I've been tracking the movements on UJ on the way down. This pop up is the final move before it gets ready to totally fall apart. Notice how it's mirroring the prior movements when it was going up.

Once it breaks below this last channel line, it won't stop dropping for quite a while.

Basically, it's a form of a bearish head and shoulders pattern.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 19, 2017, 07:48:24 am
Shorting UJ here near 115 will give you an easy hit at 113 for anyone wanting the trade.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 19, 2017, 10:04:26 am
For anyone interested in holding, this is likely the last rally we'll see on UJ before it breaks down and heads to my 107 target.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 19, 2017, 05:39:00 pm
I can't decide if I want to hold overnight. Things could get weird tomorrow.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 19, 2017, 05:41:10 pm
I'm counting on that Kermit. The pattern says we'll close UJ tomorrow somewhere in the 113.50 range, give or take. And next week, the real drop begins.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 19, 2017, 06:36:03 pm
NU 4 Hour Chart

NU probably still has a bit more upside to go but it's going to be limited. The TDI is retesting the bottom trendline here...maybe one slight new high near the upper trend line and then down she goes.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 19, 2017, 07:58:39 pm
After your post yesterday, I closed one of my NU shorts and set an order at .723. It's just a few pips from filling now. It's going to be hard to wait that last little bit and not just say "screw it" and pull the trigger.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 19, 2017, 08:00:43 pm
Lol! I know what you mean. I'm actually not adding any more on NU here. I'm waiting out the weekly chart setup anyway so its not a big deal if it moves up further.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 19, 2017, 09:04:54 pm
Up to this point, NU and UJ have moved inversely. However, both charts are now lined up so that both pairs drop together. This should effectively tank NJ as well.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 20, 2017, 07:20:09 am
UJ TDI Breakdown and Retest

Similar to the 4 hour NU chart I was describing with the break away from the TDI trend line and then a retest for a final top, the UJ daily chart is sitting in the same boat right now.

The TDI channel that began back in June of last year broke down with this last overall sell off and is just now retesting the trend line as resistance from the underside.

You saw what happened to NU when the retest was finished...guess what's in store for UJ next...   ;D



Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 20, 2017, 07:23:41 am
I keep my stable of tradable pairs fairly small so I can keep up a general level of familiarity with them. So this may be an obvious question about a pair I don't trade, but if the NZD is going down against the dollar and the dollar is going down against the Yen, then why not clip the dollar out of that equation and go straight to shorting the NZD against the Yen?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 20, 2017, 07:32:03 am
I'm already sort NJ as well Kermit for that very reason. You bring up a very important aspect...correlation trading.  N/J is technically a hybrid pair made up of N/U and U/J with the US dollar factor removed. As such, we can analyze each pair individually and determine what NJ will likely do.

I tend to be early on my weekly trade setups so I like to hedge a bit by spreading things around in opposing pairs. It keeps the account balanced until things line up for me. I actually like the UJ chart setup better than I like the NU setup so I have a slightly heavier unit allocation on the UJ shorts than I do the NU shorts. So if NU does continue up for some reason while UJ tanks, I don't see any appreciable drawdown in the account. If both tank at the same time, all is well.

The NJ trade for me is just extra gravy on the side...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 20, 2017, 08:12:33 am
The price pattern on UJ is slightly different than I was expecting so we may not get back into the 133's today after all. Fridays can be slow. Either way though, the trade is still valid but it may be next week before it really gets going to the downside.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 20, 2017, 08:51:21 am
For those who are interested, I began last year making training videos on my trading system. I named it H.O.T.  ...short for High Odds Trading. I plan on finishing the video series sometime in the near future but there are several hours worth of videos that start from ground level 1 and take you through the basic steps that I use now for trading.

Begin with the H.O.T. Introduction video. After that, the videos are labeled 1,2,3, etc. I'll post later on as I complete more of the series.

Here's the dropbox link. I would probably recommend that you download the videos so you can watch them on a larger screen but you can watch them directly in the dropbox viewer as well.

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/yrtalr0e0df9qn4/AADSRJfZlHk1BwDhYSMYvWeia?dl=0
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 20, 2017, 11:48:35 am
Pennies how do you download them-the charts off of dropbox ?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 20, 2017, 11:49:39 am
I think you can just right click them and select download Jav.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 20, 2017, 12:32:46 pm
i got it but when you right click it says save as--yep better to watch it this way-tks-will review all of them-let us know when you add another
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 20, 2017, 12:38:28 pm
Ok will do Jav.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 20, 2017, 12:49:24 pm
Well heck got first one ok-lol gotta remember how i got it-others are coming up as a html file-no video
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 20, 2017, 01:22:11 pm
UJ....kersplat...lol! Man I love charts. 😄

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 20, 2017, 04:50:06 pm
I closed out at 2:00--I caught the first drop, but not the second bigger one. Oh well, still did well.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 20, 2017, 04:51:07 pm
Good job Kermit. I'm still in long term but I have one set to close at 113.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 20, 2017, 04:52:47 pm
Week 3 Wrap up:

Start: $74.94
Goal: $78.69 – 5%
Attained: $92.89 – 24%

Now that this experiment is in full swing, I have to think more carefully about what I’m doing. Sure, it’s gratifying to make big gains (two consecutive weeks of 24% gains), but that was not the goal. My purpose is to show that you don’t need to make big gains. Growing the account over time is about consistency, not big wins.

But the key is discipline—I can give in to the momentary passions and get a huge gain one week, only to have that same approach turn into a huge loss the next. And we all know where that leads—the huge losses kill your account quicker than the huge gains pad it and in the end you’re broke and you have to put more money in your account if you want to keep playing.

So while I’m happy to have the gains, it means I'm betting too big and not protecting myself. I need to scale back my positions. So I will cut back on my lot sizes, enter positions more carefully, and shoot for $3.47 next week (5% in the ideal scenario). If I hit it early, I will cut back even more for the rest of the week.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 20, 2017, 05:28:20 pm
Sounds like a solid plan Kermit. Very good advice for any trader.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 21, 2017, 11:26:02 am
Week 4 Post

Start: $92.89
Goal: $96.36
Pairs under consideration: UJ, NU, and GU.

NU was bouncing around inside a bearish channel for months. Earlier this week, it broke out and has retested the top of the channel several times, with the channel holding. That has me thinking long, but Pennies says short based on the indicators he’s using, so I’m just going to move on to another pair.

GU is also in a bearish channel and has been butting up against the top all week, with the channel holding. That tells me to wait for confirmation but expect a short. Never mind, there is still too much chaos in the pound. I’m going to stay away for a little longer.

Last, but not least, UJ. The 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts all look bearish to me (1-hour and daily attached) with the price sitting just below a resistance zone and not much support in sight.

So my current plan is to go short the Yen against the dollar.


Charts attached:

UJ 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts all look down
NU daily chart not so clear to me
GU looking down, but a bit gun shy still
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 21, 2017, 11:42:19 am
Pennies still can't download any other of your videos--somehow look in bottom left corner they are flagged/copyright
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 21, 2017, 12:06:41 pm
Hey Jav. I'll check into it tonight and figure out what's wrong.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 21, 2017, 12:10:34 pm
Ok figured it out-i needed to download dropbox and now when i click on it it allows me to download it-don't no why it let me download 1 yesterday-so i'm good to go-will watch these today and be ready for your next video
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 21, 2017, 12:12:17 pm
Good deal. Let me know if you have any problems or questions. The next video will be details on TDI wave counting.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 21, 2017, 12:29:20 pm
Now that i'm really looking forward to
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 21, 2017, 04:17:31 pm
Pennies glad you brought these videos back infront of our eyes again-GREAT info-well let me get back to watching more
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 21, 2017, 07:57:29 pm
Hope they can be helpful Jav. Never hurts to review the basics.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 22, 2017, 10:42:51 am
NIKKEI Chart

This goes hand in hand with the larger decline I'm expecting on the UJ pair. The Yen follows the Japanese stock market inversely, as it should. Market up equals a weak yen, which drives Yen crosses like UJ to the upside. But a decline in the Nikkei makes the Yen stronger, driving down UJ.

If you've watched the training video I posted about the TDI wave counts, you may have also noticed that there are a lot of indicators that can be used to determine these counts also. The RSI, MACD, Stoch, etc., all give the same basic information.

In this case, the MACD has posted a full 4 wave count, which means that Wave 5 down is coming next. That's the strongest of the wave movements and also coincides with the strongest price movements.

I predict that the Nikkei will drop drastically over the coming weeks and take UJ down with it.

I also see near term downside for pairs like AU and NU, with NU likely being the weakest of the two, at least for the time being. So as a result, pairs like AJ and NJ will drop dramatically.

Just my 2 cents worth...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 22, 2017, 10:55:15 am
AU 4 Hour Chart

Shorts are recommended here for a while. The TDI head and shoulders pattern is one that I watch for on a regular basis. The neckline retest results in one last high before price rolls over and drops.

Look for a retrace back to between the 61.8 and 71.6 fib levels.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 22, 2017, 12:37:02 pm
WE need to close below this 34ema low-34ema high-34 ema close channel
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 22, 2017, 01:16:36 pm
It'll happen Jav...soon.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 22, 2017, 06:14:11 pm
Trade Simulator

This is by far the best trade simulator I've ever used. For a while, it wouldn't work with the newer version of the MT4 platforms and I had to switch to another type but I just checked it again with the version I have now and it works great.

The simulator isn't available anymore on the internet. The programmer who created it took it down and hasn't put it back up yet. It's called NubSim. Here is the download link for the simulator and a training video I created that shows exactly how to use it.

When you download the ex4 file, place it in your Experts folder. Close and restart MT4 to be able to access it.

The easiest way to get the file into the correct folder is to have MT4 open and click File in the upper left hand corner and then click Open Data Folder. Then double click the MQL4 folder. Then double click the Experts folder. Just copy and paste the ex4 file directly into that folder. Don't forget to close and then reopen MT4 afterwards.

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/igzn3low79k5yr4/AABib9kiIuMFUHbXSGYVLWXwa?dl=0
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 22, 2017, 06:28:35 pm
Thank you Pennies for that expert advisor-believe i use to have it on old computer--was trying to find the one you mentioned on one of your dropbox videos-not there anymore--now i have one -let me go see if i can get it going
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 22, 2017, 06:31:31 pm
It's a lot easier to use than the LH Simulator we had to switch to after NubSim quit working. NubSim was always the best one.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 22, 2017, 07:03:28 pm
can you place a fake trade on it
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 22, 2017, 07:04:08 pm
Yep, the training video in that same link shows you how to place trades inside the simulator.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 22, 2017, 08:21:01 pm
Time to load up the shorts on NU here above 0.72. Shorted at 0.7203.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 22, 2017, 08:26:03 pm
NU 30 Minute Chart

I'm just playing some flippers in this area for now. First TP target is 0.7150 just above the FE 61.8. Two other targets are the FE 100 at 0.7112 and the FE 161.8 at 0.7205.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 22, 2017, 08:46:50 pm
just electricity been off since 7:30  :'(
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 22, 2017, 10:07:57 pm
Pennies been looking at more charts using 30 min time frame and putting on the TDI i believe i can see it better count wise after looking at your last chart-tks
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 22, 2017, 10:11:59 pm
Yep Jav, the more you study it, the more clear it will become. The TDI wave counting technique is something I developed quite a while back. It's just another tool. I don't use it by itself though. As I stress in the video series, it still has to be coupled with other TA analysis. But I do have to say it's probably the most powerful tool in the kit. Once you have it down pat, it will make a huge difference in your trading.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 22, 2017, 11:47:46 pm
1 minute and 5 minute NU charts are showing initial 5 wave counts down playing out soon. So I'll probably bail out at 0.7188 and then wait to see what we get in the morning.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 22, 2017, 11:52:56 pm
Goodnight
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 23, 2017, 12:13:17 am
Decided to just wait and hold it for the larger drop to my original TP at 0.7150, with actual TP set for 0.7153. I'm not gonna start second guessing myself and taking small profits when the larger picture still says we drop later.

NU TP set for 0.7153...and going to bed...LOL! Night gang.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 23, 2017, 01:21:46 am
NU 4 Hour Chart

The more I look at this thing, the more I realize NU is gonna drop a lot more than just what I'm seeing on the 30 minute chart. The TDI break and retest along with this hesitation right at the trendline as well as a daily trendline breakdown and retest tells me this sucker is gonna tank hard.

I'm just gonna let er drop and take profits later on as the larger count to the downside develops.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 23, 2017, 09:40:44 am
And there's the 113 target on UJ...or close enough to it at 113.01...LOL! Gotta love those charts. :-)

I closed out my NU short last night after all for about 15 pips profit. Back in short on NU again at 0.72166. Still looking for a nice push down here.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 23, 2017, 10:03:24 am
UJ 4 Hour Chart

Ok, UJ is following the pattern nicely here. Now there's room for one more push topside back up to that 2nd from the bottom channel before it falls apart. NU should drop as a result.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 23, 2017, 10:08:48 am
Nice call on UJ. It happened so fast, I missed it. So I'm looking again at NU now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 23, 2017, 10:10:44 am
Thanks Kermit. Of course, as usual, I didn't hold it all the way...LOL! Sometimes I'm still a big chicken at heart. I see dollar signs and pull the trigger all too often. I guess every trader has an Achilles heel. :-)

I'm looking for a near term move on NU back down at least 100 pips pretty soon here and likely more on the lower time frame. The 4 hour chart with the TDI breakdown is the key to the movement.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 23, 2017, 03:21:41 pm
I'm good about taking profits, it's taking losses that I struggle with. And as you know, the best way to take a big loss is to refuse to take a small loss.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 23, 2017, 03:24:22 pm
Yep, that's a big one as well Kermit. Took me a while to overcome that. We hate to take losses of any kind so its natural to let em ride and hope they come back.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 23, 2017, 03:43:55 pm
NU 4 Hour Chart Update

Filling in nicely now...identical finishing patterns.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 23, 2017, 04:56:00 pm
Break outside of the small diagonal. That puts us into a larger pattern...an expanding diagonal. So I'd look for a move to 0.73 before it tanks.

Still holding all trades. The breakdown on the TDI still says it's gonna tank.

NU 4 Hour Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 23, 2017, 11:52:39 pm
NU Weekly Chart with downside Targets

Wave 4 back up should be complete. Ready to begin Wave 5, which is the one we always want to trade.

Primary TP target is 0.6879. Secondary TP target is 0.66413.

EDIT: 0.73 could still be in the mix for NU on another topside push before it rolls over to satisfy the smaller TDI wave counts. That will affect the lower targets a bit by raising them slightly.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 24, 2017, 07:14:21 am
There's still a minor 5 wave progression working it's way out here on the last leg up from what I can see. We hit the 3rd wave peak and it's pulling back a bit so I'll bail out on the next pullback on my flipper position and reload later.

4 hour chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 24, 2017, 09:19:45 am
Guess they're gonna take it to 0.73 on NU after all so might as well just hold for the larger drop later. This is really a weekly play so the lower time frames do have some slack.

Gotta run...everybody have a good one.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 24, 2017, 02:55:39 pm
Some long terms charts setting up for nice topside runs are Aud/Nzd and Eur/Nzd. Both should accompany NU drop.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 25, 2017, 11:15:55 am
Watching NU and...well...yawn.

GBP is coming up on resistance on the daily chart. Thinking about going short in the neighborhood of 1.27 (but I can't check the good charts until I get home from work).
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 25, 2017, 11:20:31 am
NU news coming tonight. That may be the catalyst we need. A lot of times the technicals line up nicely with news releases. Not sure about GU. I've kind of let that one go for now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 25, 2017, 03:02:21 pm
Here's the GU Daily. It broke out of the channel, came back to test, now it's heading to the tunnel. If it bounces off, it has about 300 to 400 pip drop before it lands on support again.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 25, 2017, 03:11:44 pm
Here's the same chart with a bit more information.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 25, 2017, 03:22:05 pm
That sounds reasonable Kermit. If GU makes it up to the 1.27 area, a retrace becomes more likely. After that, it could easily set up for another move north based on the larger time frames TDI wave count. Currently, the daily chart shows that it's getting close to completing a Wave 3 up on the TDI, which would lead to a Wave 4 retrace. Typically, I look for those retraces to come back to between the 61.8 and 71.6 fib levels of the entire move up.
That could bring it back down to between 1.22 and 1.23 before having a chance to move back up again.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 25, 2017, 03:50:06 pm
NU finally tagged that 0.73 top end target I was looking for. Let's see how it behaves from these levels.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 25, 2017, 04:11:46 pm
The usual pattern on news pops is, if it holds the move, then the price will continue in that direction. If it returns to the pre-news price (generally within an hour or two), then it will head the other way.

So if it drifts back down to the .727 area where it was 30 minutes ago, then it's topped and we'll see that decline we've been waiting for.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 25, 2017, 04:14:21 pm
It's really pushing the top end on the TDI wave count and the 4 hour TDI break and retest. It'll get there sooner or later...all I have to do is wait. :-)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 25, 2017, 04:50:33 pm
NU 4 Hour Chart

This is why I was kind of looking for the hit at the 0.73 marker. It's the standard TDI Wave 4 target at the 71.6 fib and it intersects perfectly with the top trendline in the expanding diagonal.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 25, 2017, 09:14:38 pm
AUD/NZD Weekly Chart with IHS Pattern

This is one of the charts I mentioned earlier that is set to run topside with a decline on NU. Standard inverted head and shoulders pattern. The TDI is used to confirm the bullish setup with 3 higher lows at each of the shoulders and the head.

Minimum target is the FE 61.8 I have marked on the chart based on the overall TDI wave count. The larger IHS pattern also predicts a much larger move up later on that could take us as high as that FE 161.8 level above 1.25.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 26, 2017, 10:45:19 am
UJ has completed a full 5 wave TDI daily sequence to the downside followed by a 1-2 sequence with a slight new low at the end of Wave 2 which is what it should do. It's currently in a strong TDI 3rd wave move back up which could ultimately challenge previous highs or even make a slight new high before tanking hard. I'll be watching for a good spot later to add a weekly short as the new sequence comes to an end.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 26, 2017, 05:15:02 pm
Pennies appreciate these charts-time on my hands since Donna decided to share her head and chest cold with me  :-\
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 26, 2017, 05:30:59 pm
Yuck! Thats never any fun Jav. When I get that stuff all I want do is sleep...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 26, 2017, 06:36:03 pm
NU 4 Hour Chart Update

The chart pretty well explains what I'm waiting for next.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 26, 2017, 06:42:52 pm
There was one payback tho-yesterday she got a jury summons -Karma works in mysterious ways lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 26, 2017, 06:43:29 pm
ROFL! Yep, that definitely counts as payback.  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 26, 2017, 06:47:34 pm
UJ 4 Hour Chart

Based on the equilateral channels here and the overall appearance of a bearish head and shoulders pattern, this last move up today was about all I was expecting out of UJ before it gets ready to tank hard later on. But at this point, the TDI wave count suggests that more topside could be coming. We'll have to wait and see how it plays out.


Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 26, 2017, 07:44:40 pm
This is the kind of crazy crap you start seeing when markets are getting near a final top or bottom. Remember during the rapid increase in gold prices...banks were reopening or installing new physical gold vaults, commercials about buying gold were flooding the TV screen, and Dubai even installed ATM's in their hotel lobbies that dispensed 1 oz gold bars instead of cash.

The same thing happened when oil shot up to 140$ a barrel...calls were coming out that we would move rapidly to $200 and $300 a barrel.

And now of course we have the DOW Jones breaking 20k and everyone is making the rounds on predictions...including this knuckle head who is predicting...are you ready for this?....DOW 38,820.

They all have one thing in common....when these ridiculous calls start making the rounds, watch for a final top coming soon with a serious drop afterwards.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/forget-dow-20000-and-get-ready-for-38820-221439111.html
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 26, 2017, 08:36:54 pm
NU 30 Minute Chart

For those of you who have watched the TDI wave counting video I created, this is one of the types of setups I watch for. During a strong trend, the price action will make a temporary reversal in the opposite direction. As you get near the end of a 5 wave count on the TDI during the retrace, the price and the indicator will often diverge...but not in a normal type of negative or positive divergence. This is another example of hidden divergence. The TDI in this case has made a 5th wave higher high but the price is sitting at a lower high. That's normally an indication that the selling is about to kick in again and that we are destined to make a lower low in price, continuing the sell off from this morning.

We'll see how this one shakes out but right now it's looking like it wants to drop again.

EDIT: I've added the full wave count on the 30 minute chart as it stands now. We have a larger wave count in yellow in progress. Basically, each larger wave is made up of 5 smaller waves. So we have a larger count of 1,2,3, and now Wave 4 back up. Wave 5 back down should be coming soon and is likely to make a lower low in price. After a full 5 waves down, plus a 1-2 count in the other direction, we can possibly look for a near term bottom with an expectation of 5 waves back up again. I've attached the 2nd NU 30 minute chart with the larger wave count.


Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 26, 2017, 08:54:39 pm
USD/MXN Weekly Chart

US dollar against the Mexican Peso. Another example of hidden divergence. During an uptrend, when you see the TDI making lower lows AT THE BOTTOM but price is making higher lows, you can pretty well bet the sucker is ready to pop hard to the north again.

This is a trend continuation example. Remember from the video that the single best wave to play is the 5th wave. So you wait for Wave 4 to complete back up and then jump in for the start of the 5th wave and BOOM! You rake in da pips.  :-)

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 26, 2017, 11:37:08 pm
NU Hourly Chart

Shaping up to be a bearish head and shoulders pattern here, just like the larger UJ bearish head and shoulders pattern. Let's see if we get a move on up to the 0.7275 area followed by a drop all the way to 0.72, back to roughly 0.7260 and then a kersplat. Final projected lowside target would be just above 0.71. But there's a fib level around 0.7140 so let's shoot for 0.7150.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 27, 2017, 07:46:38 am
Nice NU chart. I'm finally in short @ .7257 We'll see how it goes GL
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 27, 2017, 07:48:11 am
Good morning Heavy. I've got a flipper I'll close right around that lower neckline level. My long term NU shorts are based on the weekly chart so I don't worry about those too much.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 27, 2017, 07:53:44 am
The 4hr seems to be trying to print a doji on the break of the rising wedge and retest so I had to jump in. It may rise a little bit since it hasn't completely hit the bottom trendline of the wedge yet but I'll wait. First target is around .7150 IMO
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 27, 2017, 07:54:56 am
I was also thinking 0.7150 as a safe exit once the head and shoulders pattern breaks down.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 27, 2017, 07:59:06 am
Good deal. Do you also see an expanding wedge on the daily? Looks to be completing the 3-4 leg IMO
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 27, 2017, 08:02:58 am
Yep, that's the same larger pattern I saw as well Heavy. That and the larger weekly TDI wave count suggest it's going back down to below 0.6860 overall for one more leg down. Plus, the fact that it's a leading downsloping diagonal after the last overall high suggests that it's likely some type of Wave A. So after it's completed, we'll get some kind of Wave B retrace and then a larger sell off later.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 27, 2017, 08:06:43 am
Getting right into that potential head and shoulders right shoulder area now. Let's see how it handles it.

NU 30 Minute chart again...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 27, 2017, 08:12:01 am
Hoping this is the last gasp on NU. Bottom of the wedge trendline is around .7197
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 27, 2017, 08:12:45 am
I'm sorry  I meant .7297
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 27, 2017, 08:18:47 am
Yep, it's right where it needs to be on the test of the broken line here Heavy. There's a secondary channel inside that larger wedge pattern as well where the retest is happening right now. I've got it marked with a yellow line that runs exactly parallel with the top of the wedge trendline.

Hourly chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 27, 2017, 08:22:52 am
On the larger 4 hour chart we also have this...TDI contracting triangle breakdown and retest that I posted last week. That should take us down as well.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 27, 2017, 08:25:34 am
That's exactly what I'm seeing pennies. I'm about ready to add another short position. Gonna wait though
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 27, 2017, 08:32:40 am
And here's the big one that got me interested in shorting it in the first place. The larger expanding diagonal with a completion on the 4th move up as you mentioned. Plus, the TDI wave count shows a 4th wave up with a 5th wave down coming, which is always the best one to play.

The FE expansion tool that I use to calculate TP targets says that at minimum we go back down to hit the FE 61.8 at 0.69867 but the FE100 target is the most likely one since it lines up with the bottom of the expanding diagonal and is also sitting dead on the 50% fib retrace of the entire move up off the absolute lows.

My ideal TP is set just above the FE100 at .68

NU Weekly Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 27, 2017, 08:39:45 am
Excellent!!!!! Might as well set it and forget it. Lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 27, 2017, 08:41:28 am
I'm sure I'll close part of it out at the FE 61.8 but I plan on holding at least one trade all the way down to my 0.68 target...I tend to be very stubborn sometimes...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 27, 2017, 03:05:53 pm
Wouldn't you know it that NU stopped just about my sell entry and parked most of the day.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 27, 2017, 03:07:14 pm
Yep, typical Friday...volume dries up. Should get interesting next week though.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 27, 2017, 03:34:35 pm
Yeah it's ok. I'm not worried. Enjoy your weekend pennies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 27, 2017, 03:36:12 pm
You too Heavy.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 28, 2017, 05:54:19 pm
Week 4 Wrap up:

Start: $92.89
Goal: $97.53
Attained: $93.11

After two great weeks, this one was a yawner. It started with me trying to catch a bounce on JPY before going short, but it didnít bounce. So I just jumped in but because I wasnít happy with my entry, I bailed at the first sign of a retrace. Then it kept going down. So of that big move, I caught a little last Friday and a very little this past Monday. After looking around for another opportunity, I jumped in short on NU, and then waited. And waited. And waited. And basically nothing happened. It drifted against me a bit, nothing more.

So, take my small gain on JPY:USD, subtract the interest charges on NZD:USD and we haveÖ$0.22

Oh well. Beats a loss.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 28, 2017, 06:05:35 pm
Week 5 post

Start: $93.11
Goal: $96.76
Pairs under consideration: EU, NU, and GU.

NU just bounced off the top of the channel, and if the past is a guide, it should be headed south, potentially very far south.

GU bounced off the 23.6 and is just below the tunnel, which favors down, but just below is the EMA-12 and the top of the broken channel offering support.

EU also has too much happening around the current price with fibs and tunnels above and EMA-12 below. A direction should become clear in the next day or two, but right now it could go either way

For my first trade this week, I will go with NU short.

Charts attached:

EU Daily, should be clearer in a couple days
GU looking down, but too much traffic
NU daily chart looking down, down, down
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 29, 2017, 07:00:01 pm
well ain't nothing moving yet >:(
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 29, 2017, 07:43:19 pm
Evening gang. Looks like there's still enough room for one more quick spike on NU if the market wants to take it there. It doesn't have to but there's enough wiggle room for it. It's kind of like getting a shot...one quick "ouch" and then it's over...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 29, 2017, 10:09:57 pm
Well i'm ready for it to be over-die turkey die lol
speaking of i saw 14 wild turkeys in the field in front of my house-nature is beautiful
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 29, 2017, 10:13:28 pm
I love turkeys Jav...when they're on a roasting pan...LOL!

These larger Elliott Wave patterns like NU is in take time to get started but once they do, they're awesome. The 4th wave in an expanding diagonal can often be frustrating...it almost makes you question whether you're right on the call. But eventually, they do collapse and everything works out fine.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 29, 2017, 11:41:51 pm
This is something i have really been focused on -using strat tester and watching certain pairs real time-
http://www.ino.com/blog/2009/02/exact-swing-points-support-and-resistance/#.WI7PLPkrI2x
i'll try to include charts with this along the way--
also another post
http://www.daytradingbias.com/?p=74053
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 30, 2017, 09:08:56 am
NU 4 Hour Detailed Chart Analysis

Finally was able to get some detail on what's likely to happen next. The chart has all the notes explaining what I'm expecting to see over the next few days.

I've got a flipper short position ready to close at 0.7180. After that, I'll wait for the final 5 wave sequence back to the top to enter another short for the larger sell off.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 30, 2017, 10:02:04 am
I was certainly second guessing my entry pennies as NU looks to gaining momo to the topside. I was able to flip one position but I'm still hold a second one...for now anyways
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 30, 2017, 11:35:49 am
It is awfully boring. On the plus side, this sort of movement tends to act like the winding of a spring. It is stored energy, and the longer it winds, the bigger the SPROING! when it goes off.

Of course, that says nothing about what direction it will go in when it goes. For that we have to rely on our charting skills, or step aside and watch. Either choice is legitimate.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 30, 2017, 02:07:59 pm
Thats right Kermit. Other than the drop on UJ, things have been pretty boring today. The market is waiting on a catalyst I guess...and we have to wait with them.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 30, 2017, 02:21:27 pm
Interesting...NU has made a move back towards the major trendline instead of dropping back Kermit. Could be that this is actually a minor Wave 2 movement back up and we're getting ready for the major selling to start sooner than I expected.

Either way, it'll be good. I may just hold my flipper position longer than I expected with more downside profit coming. I guess we'll see how it shakes out. The weekly is my primary focus. That larger TDI wave 4 movement back up is either complete or very near it so downside is inevitable regardless of the smaller time frame counts. There are times when the smaller time frames get muddy so I stick with the larger time frames as a whole.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 30, 2017, 03:36:34 pm
Just checked the new docket and we've got NU red flag announcements coming out late tomorrow afternoon. Let's see what that brings.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 30, 2017, 06:23:40 pm
AJ 1 Hour watching with my new stuff-could have been very tradeable and still is
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 30, 2017, 06:27:40 pm
Uh oh made a mistake on chart-SWUP == SWING UP
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on January 30, 2017, 06:29:39 pm
PS i think it's setting up for another SWING DOWN --AJ
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 31, 2017, 07:12:05 am
Well, there's the new high on NU I was expecting. Now let's see if it's really set up for the plunge or if it goes to da moon...LOL! Larger TDI wave count still says down.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 31, 2017, 08:08:49 am
UJ Daily Chart

I mentioned a few days ago that UJ could still move up back up towards the highs again. The current pattern is suggesting an IHS with a move north coming. For those interested in playing longs, an entry here with a stop slightly below the low would represent a low risk entry.

EDIT: One caveat on this possible trade...you have to wait for the TDI to start curling back up again before taking a long entry. That helps keep you out of a potentially losing trade. Just thought I'd throw that out there. :-)

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 31, 2017, 08:54:43 am
Trying to pick a top on NU is brutal.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 31, 2017, 08:56:29 am
Ain't it the truth Kermit...LOL! That's why my primary TA is done on the longer term charts on pairs like NU. The long term count is still deadly bearish so regardless of the smaller daily ins and outs, I'm holding the shorts. The long time frames take out all the noise.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 31, 2017, 08:58:24 am
Well, UJ isn't an IHS at this point...new low on the price action. But the TDI is still suggesting a near term move back north is coming...3 higher lows on the TDI and three lower lows in price.

That basically sets up a TDI Wave 4 finish, getting ready for a TDI 5th wave push back up, which can be large.

I'm holding very long term shorts on UJ based on the weekly charts so I'm not really concerned about the smaller time frame movements. My long term TP is still 107 to the downside.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on January 31, 2017, 01:19:06 pm
My NU 4hr TDI shows a descending triangle with a brief break topside. Hopefully that's just a warning that a move is coming and hoping it's not bullish. PPS is already touching the 78.6 fib. Time will tell.....
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 31, 2017, 01:41:11 pm
We'll know for sure in a few hours. Red flag NU news due today.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 31, 2017, 03:48:36 pm
NU numbers are really bad...just what we needed. :-)

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 31, 2017, 03:52:13 pm
It still amazes me that over and over again we see technical patterns complete right around news releases.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 31, 2017, 03:55:53 pm
Technical TDI wave counts showing pretty well complete on Aud/Nzd and Eur/Nzd as well. Been expecting nice pops on those two for a while.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on January 31, 2017, 05:15:02 pm
You've probably heard about how the London stock exchange started rising during the blitz--even at that early hour, when things looked bleakest, the markets knew Britain would win.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 31, 2017, 05:54:29 pm
Yes indeed Kermit. Psychology is always interesting and it definitely plays a part in trading.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 31, 2017, 11:00:33 pm
NU Hourly Line Chart

Line charts produce some very clean pictures. We have a nice start on the current NU drop but we can't quite declare victory just yet. We need to break well below 3 possible trend line supports. But if we can manage a push below 0.72, that will get us where we need to be for a larger sell off.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on January 31, 2017, 11:35:20 pm
NU Weekly Chart with Goodman Wave Target (Possible)

Sounds crazy but longer term, NU could very well be headed all the way back to a multi-decade low of 0.48. You heard it here first...LOL!

Jav can substantiate the possibility here based on Goodman wave theory.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 01, 2017, 12:15:11 pm
Warning: FOMC policy statement and interest rate decision coming up at 4:00 PM EST (50 minutes)

So far, news releases today have been good for NU shorts. According to forexlive.com, a 14% chance of a rate hike has been priced in to the USD. So that should make the dollar slightly weaker if (when) the rate is left unchanged. More importantly, at the same time the Fed will release a policy statement. That will matter more--whether it is more hawkish or dovish than expected.

https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 01, 2017, 12:24:35 pm
Agreed Kermit. Its gonna be interestingbfor sure. A really nice near term trade for anyone wanting it is AU right now. We are long AU here at .7564 with a TP set at .77. Still short NU long term though.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 01, 2017, 06:37:24 pm
Went ahead and booked profits on the AU long from earlier. Best to take da money and run...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 01, 2017, 07:21:42 pm
NU seems destined to **** me off, especially with this run up right now, but the daily is still looking like a break down. The chart is NU daily.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 01, 2017, 07:22:52 pm
Lol! Aggravating ain't it Kermit. Seems to take forever.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 01, 2017, 07:35:17 pm
Pennies what time frame were you on when you called for an au long-congrats by the way
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 01, 2017, 07:37:27 pm
Thanks Jav. I saw the setup on the 4 hour chart earlier that was calling for a new high. It can still run higher but I didnt want to push it.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 01, 2017, 07:49:19 pm
do you have time to put up that chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 01, 2017, 08:43:36 pm
AU 4 Hour Chart

Here ya go Jav. I just used the TDI wave counts combined with the tendency of price to follow right after a TDI breakout and retest occurs. I could have gotten much more profit than I did but I tend to hit and run...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 01, 2017, 08:49:07 pm
Thanks Pennies just what i needed to study
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 02, 2017, 05:44:57 am
Long EJ at 121.54, TP set for 122.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 02, 2017, 07:35:05 am
Moving TP on EJ up to 123.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 02, 2017, 07:54:06 am
Looks like AU came up just shy of my .77 target. I hate being right and not holding...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 02, 2017, 07:56:28 am
Looking for the US dollar to start kicking butt here soon with a drop on the risk pairs.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 02, 2017, 08:01:56 am
EJ ready to rock and roll topside back to 123 now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 02, 2017, 08:06:41 am
Looking for NU to start the larger downside run from here.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 02, 2017, 10:22:28 am
Looking at the hourly on NU, the last low and high were both lower, which is nice. Momentum would be nicer.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 02, 2017, 10:25:49 am
It should be setting up for a nice EW wave 3 to the downside Kermit. Could take a bit to get started but I think it'll get there.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 02, 2017, 04:50:52 pm
EJ Daily Chart

Similar to what we saw on AU before it popped hard. The TDI has retraced downward right to the bottom but the price action barely moved. Now, the TDI has broken out of the trend channel and is currently retesting the top level. I'm only holding for 123 but chances are good we head north to 124.89 which is the first major fib level of the entire move down.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 03, 2017, 06:04:21 am
About an hour and a half till NFP numbers hit the wires. Everything I see right now says the USD will spike and drive down the risk pairs. There's the prediction for what it's worth...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 03, 2017, 07:39:51 am
Knee jerk reaction was to sell the dollar but the larger patterns say they're going to buy the dollar. Lets see what happens. Most of these knee jerk responses on news are usually wrong.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 03, 2017, 07:55:43 am
Surprising. Overall, the news was mixed, but the NFP was a big hit. I would have expected that number to have the biggest effect.

The run up quickly stalled so there's a good chance the longs will start bailing soon. If we are still above 73 in a couple hours, then the pop may have some staying power. If it does come back down, then I expect us to resume the decline that began yesterday. So...more waiting.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 03, 2017, 07:55:45 am
Daily UCAD looks like its setting up a near term long opp here around 1.3020 or so. I'm not in this one though...just watching.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 03, 2017, 07:56:58 am
Yep, just gotta wait it out. I have full confidence in the long term setup so these back and forth moves really dont mean much.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 03, 2017, 08:09:06 am
Couldn't stand it. Picked up a small UCAD long at 1.3017...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 03, 2017, 09:48:17 am
I dont see any breakdown on the USD bullish reversal pattern on the daily charts so I'm sticking with my initial assessment that USD will run. All I see right now is a test near the outer levels. Thats my story and I'm sticking to it...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 03, 2017, 11:33:49 am
I see now why the dollar tanked. The market for a while now has had an unnatural relationship with the US dollar...both have been moving up together. Now, the natural inverse relationship is kicking back in. The market rallied on the good jobs number and they sold the dollar. So when the market starts selling, the dollar will rise...just like it should be.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 03, 2017, 02:08:45 pm
UCAD Daily Chart

Hey gang...just got home. Here's the UCAD daily chart showing why I feel pretty good about a long position here. Plenty of room to move back up towards the top of the channel. I doubt if I hold it that long but it should make for a nice pop soon.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 03, 2017, 02:10:59 pm
EJ Daily Chart

Very shallow channeling action. Still looking for a TP of 123 here on my long position.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 04, 2017, 02:26:48 am
This guy is quite informative-aud/usd and nzd/usd charts are mentioned-just found him today-been watching his you tube videos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFOu5WgFNKo
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 04, 2017, 11:21:32 pm
I just looked at the Aud/Usd chart he was showing-it flew up -that would have been a losing trade -oh well lol-Nzd/Usd too
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 05, 2017, 09:04:55 am
I watched the video Jav. He's good at basic price action fundamentals...no doubt about it. But he needs to incorporate other tools in his trading setup to help eliminate bad entries. He's solid though on what he knows. TA 101.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 05, 2017, 03:57:15 pm
Week 5 wrap up

Start: $93.11
Goal: $96.76
Attained: $92.30

This was my first down week this year. Very small down, though. More like boring, like last week. I held NU all week waiting for the drop that has not yet come, paying carrying costs each afternoon and closing for a small loss at the end of the week.

Lost 81 cents.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 05, 2017, 04:03:32 pm
Week 6 Post

Start: $92.30
Goal: $96.13

Pairs under consideration: NU, and GU.

Iím not up on my Elliot wave counts, but Iím not liking what I see on the NU chart anymore. Will keep watching, but for now will look elsewhere for my trading.

GU, on the other hand, is looking quite ripe for a short, so that is my main play this week.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 06, 2017, 05:37:08 am
We're sitting at some pretty major inflection points in the market as a whole right now. Don't be surprised to see volatility rear it's ugly head soon. Of course, that's good for us. Volatility means more swings and more opportunities for pips. :-)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 06, 2017, 06:38:11 am
Volatility would be nice. I only have one or two pairs going at a time so I feel like I've sat out the last two weeks watching NU slowly drift against me.

Now that another belle has caught my eye, maybe this one will put out. So to speak.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 06, 2017, 06:39:35 am
Lol! That's probably the best way I've ever heard it put, Kermit. 😄

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 06, 2017, 07:24:35 am
Added EJ long at 120.22. Still looking for 123 for a TP on both long positions.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 06, 2017, 07:30:26 am
Almost forgot...with UCAD set to move back up for a while, I would expect oil to start selling off again.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 06, 2017, 07:57:29 am
UCAD Daily Chart

I just realized I completely forgot to give you guys my TP target on my UCAD long. I'm going ultra conservative and only aiming for the 38.2 fib retrace here just above 1.32 with TP set at 1.32 even. I suspect it'll go much higher than that but that'll do for starters.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 06, 2017, 09:29:21 am
Took 41 pips profit on the initial EJ bounce. Letting the other one ride to 123.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 06, 2017, 01:11:55 pm
Added an EJ long back herebat 120.13. Should be ready to rock topside soon.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 06, 2017, 08:22:56 pm
NU still stuck in this long thin channel...patience is a virtue...wait for it...LOL!

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 06, 2017, 11:50:39 pm
NU Weekly Chart

I may be wrong here but I can't find anything that supports a strong topside bullish run no matter what type of TA method I use. This is just plain old trendlines and prior support zones along with my TDI wave count. All I still see coming is downside as price action keeps retesting this strong resistance area.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 07, 2017, 09:25:21 am
NU Daily Chart

Just like last time, we have an Elliott Wave ending expanding diagonal pattern. The large candle today indicates that the top is likely in and we drop hard from these levels.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 07, 2017, 11:10:44 am
Well i'm ready for the dive-tks for chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 07, 2017, 05:48:10 pm
Looks like tomorrow might be the trigger day for NU. Rate decision at 2 PM central and press conference with Wheeler an hour later. He's a big fan of talking the Kiwi down and I wouldn't be surprised to see a rate cut of 25 basis points.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 07, 2017, 06:30:34 pm
Weird, that's the middle of the night, new zealand time.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 07, 2017, 06:31:58 pm
Yep, he's prone to scuttling the market before his market opens later in the day for some reason.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 07, 2017, 10:36:21 pm
Ok, time to do a little digging into the mind of a central banker. Of course, I'm a technical trader, which means I believe that pretty much everything is baked into the chart, including news, especially on the long term stuff.

But, just for grins and giggles, let's take a look at Wheeler, the RBNZ Governor, and see what he might have up his sleeve for tomorrow's rate announcement and press conference.

We know that countries in general like weak currencies, especially countries that rely heavily on exports for most of their income...like New Zealand. If their native currency is cheap, that means that when they sell to other countries like Australia, China, Europe, the US, etc., they can convert the other countries currency back into more New Zealand dollars at the end of the day. But if the Kiwi is strong relative to the other countries' currencies, that translates into fewer Kiwis when the deal is done.

One of the principal trade partners is Australia. They're currently sitting at 1.5% for their rate. New Zealand though is sitting at 1.75%, which makes it slightly more attractive as a carry trade because it pays more to hold it. If we look at the relative strength of the Kiwi vs. it's peers, it's very obvious that the Kiwi is sitting at pretty much all time highs against the Aussie, the Euro, and the British Pound, which is why pairs like AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD are sitting near multi-year lows right now. That's a major problem for Wheeler because that depresses his country's GDP.

Now, if we look at New Zealand's GDP for the last 10 years, we can see that it hasn't been at 3% since back between 2008 and 2011. It's been stubbornly stuck below 2% and nothing he's been able to do up till now has been able to move the needle above that. Each country needs at least a 3% GDP to sustain any type of appreciable economic growth.

Put all of this together, and you have a type of perfect storm mixture that I think will lead to Wheeler cutting rates by at least 25 basis points. But, if he really wants to make sure that people stop buying the Kiwi relative to these other currency pairs, he could pull a "shock and awe" rabbit out of the hat and cut by a full 50 basis points.

Time will tell of course...but Wheeler's back is pretty much against the wall and if he decides to stand pat at 1.75%, he's on the losing end of the stick.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 07, 2017, 11:30:39 pm
Interesting stuff there Pennies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 08, 2017, 07:49:45 am
EJ 4 Hour Chart

Looks to be finishing up a Wave 4 expanding diagonal pattern here. So far, the entire correction has been made up of a series of 3 wave movements with a total of 5 such movements in the pattern. Typical EW stuff.

Still looking for a strong move north soon here that will break out of the top and head up to make higher highs.

Still looking for only 123 on my longs though.

Added and EJ long here at 119.45.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 08, 2017, 02:10:30 pm
Wheeler declined to drop the interest rate but he left no doubt about how he feels about the current Kiwi rate of exchange compared to other currencies. He's opted this time to try and talk it down, which I 'm sure he'll emphasize at the press conference. Here's a snippet from the statement...

" The exchange rate remains higher than is sustainable for balanced growth and, together with low global inflation, continues to generate negative inflation in the tradables sector.  A decline in the exchange rate is needed."
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 08, 2017, 02:26:58 pm
NU 4 Hour Chart

Finally broke the uptrend channel to the downside. Now all we need is one final break below that slightly upturned support level to seal the deal and take us down harder.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 08, 2017, 04:46:50 pm
Best action i've seen on NU in quite awhile-think the Bears are gaining control
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 08, 2017, 04:47:46 pm
Once they break that last support level Jav, it'll move nicely.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 08, 2017, 06:55:48 pm
NU 4 Hour Chart Update

And there's the break of the 2nd support level. First TP target is set for me at 0.70 even, second target set for 0.68 even.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 08, 2017, 09:36:47 pm
Branching out to some other pairs. I'm long EG here at 0.85405 with TP set at 0.8620.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 08, 2017, 10:11:37 pm
Pennies a/j moving lower too
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 09, 2017, 05:14:20 am
Joining Kermit on a GU short here at 1.2572 with TP set at 1.24.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 09, 2017, 06:35:38 am
Welcome! Longer term I expect GU to get down to the 1.20 range, shorter term, about 1.23. But in keeping with my effort to not hold over weekends, I will be out tomorrow and will take a closer look Sunday when I have no open positions (best for objectivity).
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 09, 2017, 07:21:44 am
I expect it to move further down as well Kermit. My 1.24 target is a quick hit and run. The TDI wave count shows a potential long position later on but down is in play for now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 09, 2017, 09:04:39 am
Nice dollar pop based on...Trump comments?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 09, 2017, 04:46:12 pm
Long EA at 1.3975. This is a long term play. I'll post a chart when I get back.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 09, 2017, 05:12:50 pm
EA Weekly Chart

I've been waiting on this one to bottom out for quite some time. It may still have a few minor waves to finish up on the downside but the TDI breakout and retest is the major clue that this thing is getting ready to pop north in a big way.

My minimum target is the 50% fib retrace. I have my TP set for 1.5250 currently but I may need to adjust it slightly if we see any more downside.

The interesting thing here is that I'm not especially bearish on AU overall so the only thing that will send this puppy hard north is some kind of event that will kick the Euro into upward overdrive.

We'll see how it turns out. The EUR/NZD chart looks very similar.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 09, 2017, 06:02:36 pm
This one is just to show you that the TDI wave count system I use can be applied to pretty much anything.

This is the AAPL (Apple) weekly chart. It's using the MACD instead of the TDI but the principle is the same. It shows a 4 count complete or very nearly complete. Based on this alone, look for Apple to begin selling off soon. The overall trend is still pretty strong so I don't know for sure how far it will fall but if you're into options trading, buying the AAPL Puts a few months out right now would yield some nice percentage gains.

 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 09, 2017, 07:53:21 pm
AJ made a liar out of me  >:(
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 09, 2017, 07:55:11 pm
Yeah Jav, with EJ poised to pop, I unloaded my NJ short to be safe. Still more topside coming from what I can see, at least on EJ.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 10, 2017, 10:35:22 am
EA getting squeezed hard. The pop should be amazing.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 10, 2017, 11:45:39 am
This one is just to show you that the TDI wave count system I use can be applied to pretty much anything.

This is the AAPL (Apple) weekly chart. It's using the MACD instead of the TDI but the principle is the same. It shows a 4 count complete or very nearly complete. Based on this alone, look for Apple to begin selling off soon. The overall trend is still pretty strong so I don't know for sure how far it will fall but if you're into options trading, buying the AAPL Puts a few months out right now would yield some nice percentage gains.

Not sure my post will go through as I'm unfamiliar and didn't see a button to post a new message, just reply button but here goes.     So it's been a long time/no visit Simples Room and long time/ no talk forex with you pennies........
I haven't caught up on previous posts since november last year or so, but I have reviewed a few posts on ihub of yours like your doom & gloom followed by long term opportunity chart on the Dow, and I've been wondering just how much upside it still has in it before some degree of correction occurs.    Some major correction has always been in my mind but I've never been good at controlling my emotions or perfectly reading the market although I did tell my wife that the markets were going to fall just weeks before they did in '08.    I got that right but I've been wrong a lot so I take my market summation with a grain of salt.   Curious...... you identified an ABC wave on the DOW chart but just wondering why you wouldn't  put a 1 thru 5 wave to the long wave up vice the ABC wave count?    Why no wave 4 and 5 before your expected large correction?     And why doesn't these forex charting platforms include the general indices as well so you can slap the TDI indicator to the Nasdaq and INDU and Russell etc?   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 10, 2017, 12:21:40 pm
Hey Qui, welcome aboard. Ok, I'll try to summarize the questions you have but I'll probably have to wait till I'm back at the computer to get you any detail. The markets long term are wrapping up what's called a Grand Super Cycle. But it takes many years to wrap it up. The ABC notation you mentioned is what's known as an expanded flat in Elliott Wave terminology. It's basically a final correction before a long term 5th wave top is put in place. Look up a "3-3-5 expanded flat pattern" on Google and it'll give you more details. As for the TDI on indices, the only MT4 platform I knew that offered that was Alpari. But they went bankrupt when the Swiss removed the Euro peg. You used to be able to track the Dow, S&P, etc on that platform so you could use all of your MT4 tools on the charts just like currencies. There may be other MT4 platforms that offer indices but I'm not familiar with any right off hand.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 10, 2017, 12:38:49 pm
So far I'm liking this board pennies....... :)

Regarding a forthcoming correction.....wouldn't it be good logic to expect the individual currencies to behave as they did during the '08 correction?   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 10, 2017, 12:40:10 pm
Yes, more or less Qui. I would expect the US dollar to get strong while others weaken.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 10, 2017, 01:08:31 pm
I would love to see some annotated historical dow INDU charts pointing out the Grand Cycles you refer to with wave counts and your homemade TDI indi overlay to see what you are seeing and thinking pennies.    When you are at your computer and have the inclination.    j

I'd like to mention that thanks to all the time you've spent mentoring me over the years I've finally had a good year in the forex for '16 and turned my minimal $1000 into $1,400.   Not big gains but considering I was down almost 50% before turning it around last year I finally starting making good trades.    Been stuck in A/N though for weeks now waiting for it to finally return to 1.0765 where I entered my original 1000 units.    I'm only down a few bucks on it now and considering just closing it out instead of hoping it actually makes it back to my entry.     I doubled and tripled down on my original entry so I'm way ahead on it but am still down a little on the first trade.    Not a good original entry for sure.

Talk to you later....congrats on your move to give us another option besides ihub!   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 10, 2017, 01:11:04 pm
Hang onto that Aud/Nzd trade Qui. Its going back to 1.11. Glad to have you aboard with us and congrats on the gains. Thats what its all about...not dollars but percentages. 😀

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 11, 2017, 08:27:29 am
Week 6 Wrap up:

Start: $92.30
Goal: $96.13
Attained: $93.82


I havenít revisited the glory days of mid-January, when I had back to back 25% weeks, but I did finish the week with more than I started, gaining $1.62 on the back of three small winsóone in NU, two in GU. I would have hit my target if I closed when I woke up Friday morning, but I held expecting more movement my direction into the close. That didnít happen.

Small failure of discipline. One of my rules was to lock in my wins when I hit my target and play it more conservatively the rest of the week to try not to lose those gains.

But still, a win is a win. My goal was to average 5% a week and I am still ahead of that on the year.

Iíll take a look at the charts again later and post next weekís play tomorrow.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 11, 2017, 09:37:05 am
If you can maintain that 5% a week kermit that would be awesome.    Looks like you are starting with around $100 which would give you around $1000 in gains after 52 weeks and nearly $15,000 after two years or another 52 weeks.    I have $1400 in my account now, having started last year beginning 2016 with $1000 in the account and I was down to nearly $600 as I remember it before changing my trading method by locking in gains only instead of locking in both losses and gains which never seemed to beat the losing positions.   I double down now to turn my loser positions into winners when I'm off from the git go.    Anyway I'm not able to make 5% a week now but maybe that will change this year as I follow you guys again.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 11, 2017, 03:39:15 pm
Hi quant, welcome to the board. I'd love to see Simple show up one day. I hope his retirement is going well.

I started on Jan 2 with $60. As you note--5% a week adds up. I have it plotted out on a spread sheet. It will take me almost 14 months to hit $1,000, and $10,000 in just over 2 years. But then at 3 years it's $120,000 and at 4 it's over 1.25 million. We're at the beginning, so I'm very far from those crazy numbers.

I'm starting with such a low dollar amount to focus on discipline, with greed out of the way. The idea is that the biggest obstacle to steady gains is mental. The principles of trading are easy, the practice is hard. We are our own worst enemies. So I have a set of rules I try to follow, and a very simple trading strategy. Under this plan, by the time I start working with real numbers, I will have turned that discipline into a habit. In theory. Unfortunately, even though greed might be sidelined, competitiveness is undeterred!

I spell it all out in my first post of this project, on Jan 1 or 2, somewhere around there. I'm checking in every weekend to show my progress. First a post rounding up last week, then another to explain my plan for the coming week.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 11, 2017, 04:07:25 pm
Quant, be careful with the doubling down. If there's one thing I've found in my trading (I can't say "learned" because I keep relearning it!), it's that there is no better way to take a big loss than to refuse to take a small loss.

Just like in the pink sheets, don't get emotionally attached. There is no reason why you have to make back your money in the same pair you lost it. There are always movers. Don't hesitate to dump a play when it's going against you in a way that negates your chart read. Start clean with a new play.

If I find that the big red number is affecting my thinking but I don't want to walk away because I think it will turn around, I sometimes close and renter just to clear the slate.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 12, 2017, 09:56:38 am
Week 7 Post

Start: $93.82
Goal: $97.84

Iím still looking at my main pairs: NU, GU, EU and I see dollar strength across the board.

EU: Daily looks good for a drop but the hourly says itíll go up about 50 pips first. Since I keep my charts simple, with trend lines and sometimes fibs, I have to consider that by the time the hourly gets up to where I think it needs to go, the daily may not be so pretty anymore. So Iíll keep an eye on it, but I wonít play it just yet.

GU: I still see a lot of drop left on the daily chart, heading for a retest of the broken channel. The hourly looks to have some sideways movement in it, but nothing tells me itís going up any time soon.

NU: Daily has been a serious disappointment. Right now, the daily generally indicates down, but leaves room for more sideways movement. The hourly is showing more strength, looking kinda uppy to me. All in all, long term shorts are probably fine, but medium and short term not so much. If you want to enter short, youíre likely to get a better entry than where it is now.

Iím not considering UJ, but the story there is the same--dollar strength on the daily, less so on the hourly.

So my focus at the beginning of the week will be GU short, while keeping an eye on NU and EU.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 12, 2017, 05:07:11 pm
I appreciate the double down warning Kermit.    I would love to trade the way pennies does as he always makes high percentage profits consistently by waking up in the wee am hours to check on his positions and trade according to the opportunities as they evolved before the rest of us begin their day, but I could never seem to be up that early on the right mornings and when I took the TDI setup trades he trades by they would always seem to be the few that were doomed to fail while the numerous setups he traded went as he expected.     So I gave up and simply began to place small initial entries that could go for thousands of pips against me before I would blow my account and would take profits if they did soon go my way, but if not, I'd simply double down after a couple hundred pips or so when the chart and TDI indi specifically indicated another near reversal and then I'd take profits when I was at break even on the first entry, while leaving that initial entry open to either go against me again where I'd simply add again later, and then close out my initial when it finally turned profitable.    Right now I'm sitting with only the single small Aud/Nzd position open waiting for it to eventually turn profitable.    The only pair I've seen that I don't think I could ever get right on with an initial bad entry is the USD/MXN pair.    It just runs up for years, then pulls back ever so slowly after more years then begins another heated skyward climb.     Trend is your friend with that pair as long as you are long.    Anyway I'd like to see a few more of pennies TDI setups to refresh my memory.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 12, 2017, 05:19:35 pm
Pennies......I want to lay the PPO over the TDI in one window.    Can you 'splain to me once more how to go about overlaying more than one indi in an indi window?     ???
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 12, 2017, 05:33:22 pm
Hey Qui. In MT4, go ahead and drag the indicator onto the chart. When the screen pops up with all the options, click the dropdown box and choose Apply to First Indicators window. I'm not sure of the exact wording cause I'm not in front of the computer. It might say Last Indicator's window.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 12, 2017, 05:48:32 pm
Navigator!    That's where I needed to drag it from.    Thanks for that!    The PPO doesn't appear to stay still in any other indi window, and I was counting on the TDI indi window to lock it down while scrolling so I could look for bottoming of the PPO in the window to relate to a bottoming of price action especially in relation to TDI interpretation!   Hope that made sense.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 12, 2017, 08:15:53 pm
NU is setting up for another near term drop. 5 waves up on the TDI but the price action has gone nowhere. Shorted at 0.7193, TP set for 0.7165.

NU Hourly Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 12, 2017, 11:28:58 pm
UJ fighting with the 200 ema again-
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 12, 2017, 11:34:54 pm
Forgot to mention green line is the 200 ema
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 12, 2017, 11:38:35 pm
NZD/USD 1 Hour info also of 4 hour
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 12, 2017, 11:43:42 pm
NZD/USD 4 Hour with Rayner info too
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 13, 2017, 12:47:40 am
NU Hourly Chart

I didn't wait long enough for this final push but the overall Elliott Wave count on this progression is absolutely gorgeous. The next drop should give us a final low somewhere around 0.7127. After that, I would expect one more push back towards the highs and then a total collapse.

Adjusting my TP on this flipper short to 0.7150 instead of 0.7165.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 13, 2017, 06:29:58 am
Closed the NU flipper short position for now after the drop. Have to head out soon and don't have time to watch it. I still have my longer term short trades though with a lower target of 0.68.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 13, 2017, 06:36:48 am
Shorted GU at 1.2529. I'll be out completely just before that first FE 61.8 primary TDI wave count target gets hit but it could easily drop all the way to the FE100 at 1.22.

There's still room in the wave count to move up if it wants to but so far, this looks about right. Still can't rule out a move higher though.

4 Hour Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 13, 2017, 07:26:01 am
Back in my UCAD long at 1.3101. There's still plenty of room for this thing to move up as oil collapses again. TP set for 1.34.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 13, 2017, 07:39:18 am
Is it time again for my monthly, "If history is a guide..." post? Because if history is a guide, CAD will be at its weakest against the USD Wednesday or Thursday when I make my next student loan payment.

Expect it to hit your target then.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 13, 2017, 07:41:34 am
LOL! Sorry about that Kermit. It does seem to work against you pretty regularly doesn't it?  :o
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 13, 2017, 07:51:15 am
Still of the opinion that EU is getting ready to run soon. When it pops that channel, it's gonna take off north again and take up pairs like my EA long position nicely.

EU 4 hour chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 13, 2017, 02:07:21 pm
Back in short on NU, now looking for .7150 TP.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 13, 2017, 07:21:33 pm
hey all, just found this board.  shorted EUR/NZD this afternoon at 1.4782.  hoping for the best.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 13, 2017, 07:50:13 pm
Hello ForexTrader and Welcome!

We're very glad you joined us here. We welcome all methods of trading and we're glad to help with any questions for anyone who may be starting out in Forex.

I've been watching EUR/NZD and AUD/NZD for a while now. The longer term monthly EUR/NZD chart is setting up for a nice topside run but short opportunities may still exist on the smaller time frames. At this stage, I'm getting a bit leery of short positions and favoring longs now on this pair and the AUD/NZD pair.

EUR/NZD Monthly Chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 13, 2017, 08:32:37 pm
Thanks Pennies.  Yes, most of my trades are closed within a week, so it is more of a short term trade.  Hope it continues to go my way
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 14, 2017, 05:22:12 am
got stopped out of EUR/NZD at break even last night.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 14, 2017, 09:07:28 am
Long on Eur/NZD at 1.47874, TP set for 1.76 even.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 14, 2017, 09:13:37 am
Closed an NU short flipper right here at the FE 61.8 on the hourly chart. Have to head out for the day and can't watch it anymore. Long term shorts still in effect with TP set at 0.68 based on the weekly charts.

Everybody have a great day. :-)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 14, 2017, 09:51:39 am
Closed out the GU short for about 75 pips profit. It'll probably keep dropping but the ADR is already above 100% for today so might as well bank it and wait. Always another trade somewhere.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 14, 2017, 10:09:07 am
Went long E/A yesterday at 1.38280 and just hoping for a profitable exit at the 21ma on the daily chart before any resumed downtrend, since I don't think it's done quite yet with it's larger downtrend on the daily and weekly charts.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 14, 2017, 05:56:41 pm
Took a long EA for a flipper position at 1.3795. Still have a long term long position there as well.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 14, 2017, 06:08:41 pm
I'm thinkin' the GU is getting ready for another move down as Asia comes on line. Going by the candles on the hourly chart.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 14, 2017, 06:11:14 pm
GU didnt hit my low target Kermit but it could easily drop from here. I'm out of it for now until I get another wave count signal.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 14, 2017, 06:15:45 pm
AU weekly chart looks to be setting up for a dip. Not in that one directly but indirectly my EA longs look promising here.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 14, 2017, 07:06:52 pm
Just noticed a correlation I've never noticed before. Ucad and EA seem to move in the same direction. The correlation isn't exact but it seems to generally hold pretty well.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 14, 2017, 07:12:29 pm
Thought about it some more and realized that Ucad and EA move down when the market is happy. They're both risk off pairs. Only conclusion I can come to at this point is that the markets are setting up to sell off for a while so near term the stock market rally may be ending.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 14, 2017, 10:19:24 pm
This thing is going to absolutely explode VERY soon to the topside and bust that wedge wide open. I've adjusted the target slightly due to the current lows. TP is the FE 61.8 right now at 1.5580 so let's just call it even at 1.55 for a viable TP point.

EA Weekly Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 07:16:29 am
EA Daily Chart with Wedge Throwover

The spring is wound tightly now. This last move down is ideal for a hard reversal pattern to set up. It's called a wedge throwover. Here's a link to anyone interested in seeing how these things play out.

http://thepatternsite.com/EWDiagTriangle.html
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 15, 2017, 10:48:01 am
I'm quite surprised by the dollar collapse here. I took some GU off the table at 1.24, but I'm wishing I took it all off.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 11:04:45 am
Yep thats why I didnt get back in GU again. A lot if times I'll have a target in mind but I usually close early. Thats why I had that 1.24 lowside target TP set initially. It was a good middle ground round number to bail out. I've tried holding to completion before and I normally get stuck holding the bag...lol! So I've learned the hard way to take da money and run.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 12:17:02 pm
EU 4 Hour Chart

EU is about to bust a gut topside in a big way very soon here. The channel is complete and the large bullish candle from the bottom is setting up the breakout condition.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 15, 2017, 01:19:15 pm
Pennies thanks for that guy's pattern site-use to have it bookmarked on other computer-lately have been searching for it-you must have read my mind
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 01:20:17 pm
Its a handy site Jav. I still refer to it from time to time.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 03:28:47 pm
EA Weekly Chart Alternative

There is another possibility here as well besides the falling wedge. We could be looking at a larger ABC correction that can ultimately move down as far as 1.34 to 1.35. That would put us back at a confluence of 2 key fib levels. One is the 1.414 extension of the first Wave A movement down. The other is the 61.8 fib of the entire movement up off of the low back in 2012.

We're currently sitting at the 127.2 fib so we can easily see a bounce here first before that last push down begins. A bounce back to 1.41 is still easily obtainable from here before it drops again. Or, the original falling wedge pattern may very well be accurate and it just takes off north and doesn't look back.

So worst case, we get a drop to 1.34, which isn't that big a deal on the larger time frames. Nothing to do but wait it out and see.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 03:45:12 pm
EA Weekly Line Chart

I love the line chart because it makes things very clear. We're actually at a triple junction support intersection here so we may get a nice bounce after all.

The yellow parallel trend lines show the primary down channel...that's #1 support at the bottom trend line.

The white trend line is drawn across previous peaks in price action that we broke above before....that's #2.

And finally we have the green trend line drawn parallel across prior support levels in price...that's #3.

So a nice pop from these levels would be expected with that much support intersecting here. I would think a minimum move would be back to the top of the yellow parallel channel lines at the least.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 15, 2017, 06:40:17 pm
Wish I hadn't been stopped out of my Eur/NZD short the other night.  >:(
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 15, 2017, 06:44:37 pm
Shorted Gbp/Jpy at 142.25. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 15, 2017, 06:46:31 pm
EU 4 Hour Chart

EU is about to bust a gut topside in a big way very soon here. The channel is complete and the large bullish candle from the bottom is setting up the breakout condition.

I agree.  Looks good for a long. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 15, 2017, 06:50:28 pm
Pennies......can you post a chart showing why you expect Aud/Nzd to move above the weekly highs 1.075 since june 2016?     I'm just hoping to get out even at 1.0767 at this point, and I'm not sure it'll even get there before it tops off again and heads possibly below 1.00.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 06:53:23 pm
Yep, here it is Qui...same chart I've had laid out for months now. The TDI wave count shows Wave 4 complete and Wave 5 up in progress plus there's a smaller IHS pattern on price setting up. Break the neckline and my FE 61.8 target and the target for the IHS completion line up nicely. I have my TP set at 1.11.

AUD/NZD Weekly Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 06:56:59 pm
Wish I hadn't been stopped out of my Eur/NZD short the other night.  >:(

I know what you mean. I hate getting stopped out, only to have it turn right around and go in the direction I wanted it to go in the first place...it stinks.

So I fixed that by simply not using stop losses anymore...LOL! Of course, I don't recommend that for anyone. I've just gotten adjusted to it. Since I play primarily daily, weekly, and monthly charts, it's not a big deal. I just adjust the risk down and the fluctuations back and forth don't matter to me, even if they're several hundred pips because typically I'm looking at TP levels that produce thousands of pips as a whole.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 15, 2017, 07:00:22 pm
Thank you sir.    I'm now on the same page with you.    I may exit at break even though and look for a better reentry if it is provided.   

Added small to my E/A and won't be adding again unless we see 1.1.35 at the 61.8 fib level I have on chart.    Definitely  on the same page with you on E/A.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 07:02:43 pm
By yhe time Aud/nzd gets back to your break even point, its gonna keep headong north. As long as the position is small relative to your account, just hold it and wait it out.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 15, 2017, 07:04:10 pm
Wish I hadn't been stopped out of my Eur/NZD short the other night.  >:(

I know what you mean. I hate getting stopped out, only to have it turn right around and go in the direction I wanted it to go in the first place...it stinks.

So I fixed that by simply not using stop losses anymore...LOL! Of course, I don't recommend that for anyone. I've just gotten adjusted to it. Since I play primarily daily, weekly, and monthly charts, it's not a big deal. I just adjust the risk down and the fluctuations back and forth don't matter to me, even if they're several hundred pips because typically I'm looking at TP levels that produce thousands of pips as a whole.

I hate stops.  it just sucks waking up to see the position went way against you.  thats my biggest problem trading the way i do.  wish i didnt have to sleep haha
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 07:07:02 pm
LOL! I used to do that too. I'd stay up most of the night and get by on only a few hours sleep a night, all week long. Now that I've switched to long term charts, I don't have to babysit anymore. I just trade it and forget it. Of course, I still like to daytrade occasionally, usually the 15 minute chart. But I'm almost always in and out the same day when I do that.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 15, 2017, 07:08:11 pm
Indeed it is small.....my original small entry I've had since Oct last year.     Made very good on my add positions but definitely didn't play it right from the git go.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 15, 2017, 07:17:15 pm
LOL! I used to do that too. I'd stay up most of the night and get by on only a few hours sleep a night, all week long. Now that I've switched to long term charts, I don't have to babysit anymore. I just trade it and forget it. Of course, I still like to daytrade occasionally, usually the 15 minute chart. But I'm almost always in and out the same day when I do that.

yeah, only way i've been profitable is trading lower timeframes ....so i'm stuck dealing with the stressful nights (unless i use a stop). 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 07:17:46 pm
Good deal. Just do what I do. I'm almost always early on my trades as you well know. So I take a long term position and then I'll drop to lower time frames sometimes and play flippers. Take EA for example...I took that flipper position below 1.38. I'll close it out around 1.39 and then wait to see what we get next. That satisfies my inner longing for near term profits while I'm waiting on the larger time frames to play out, which, unfortunately, can take weeks or months depending on which time frame I choose from the daily on up. But I've learned to be very patient and just wait them out so I'm able to produce profits on a yearly basis without any stress.

One of the most important things I did though is I removed any resemblance to goals...I have no daily, weekly, or monthly goals such as percentages, pips, dollars, etc. While it's nice to have goals, I've found that in Forex it can work against you because if you have near term goals, that can force you into sometimes making bad trades to try and make the goals happen. So I've evolved to a point where I literally just take what the market offers. Some weeks I make nothing at all. Other weeks, things align nicely and I start getting trade targets hit left and right. All of that translates into more money at the end of the year than what I started with (without any stress) and that's our ultimate goal...to make more than we lose, just like any other business venture. It's difficult to get to that point though because we all would like a steady income from Forex on a daily or weekly basis. But sometimes the market just doesn't want to cooperate and we're forced to wait it out or close the trade and go hunt for another one.

So, we have to do it like Luke did in Star Wars..."Let go Luke"...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 07:23:27 pm
LOL! I used to do that too. I'd stay up most of the night and get by on only a few hours sleep a night, all week long. Now that I've switched to long term charts, I don't have to babysit anymore. I just trade it and forget it. Of course, I still like to daytrade occasionally, usually the 15 minute chart. But I'm almost always in and out the same day when I do that.

yeah, only way i've been profitable is trading lower timeframes ....so i'm stuck dealing with the stressful nights (unless i use a stop).

Actually, if you have a good system in place on the lower time frames, you can definitely make money on the larger time frames. If you stop and really examine the things that make a successful trading system work, the same scenario can be played out on any time frame. I've trained a lot of traders over the years 1 on 1 here locally. One of the first things I do when I start out with them is to take 2 chart snapshots, 1 from a 5 minute chart and 1 from a weekly chart,  and then go in and edit them to remove all pricing information...the only left is just candlesticks and the name of the pair. Then I ask them if they can tell which is which. Invariably, they have no idea which is which because, when you strip it all down, price action is the same regardless of the time frame. The only difference is risk adjustment and the time it takes to complete a trade.

Once you get past the idea that time frames make a difference, you'll find that you can trade long term time frames and sleep very well without having to worry about news announcements, stops, or anything else that keeps you up at night.  :-)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 15, 2017, 07:39:44 pm
yeah, i dk.  longer term trades didn't work for me.  i think it was due to a combination of things, most of all patience.  1-7 day holds suit me best besides the nighttime problem.  what youre saying makes sense though and should be true
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 07:44:51 pm
Yep, the patience thing can be a real pain. I've held trades before that last for months. So I just ignored them and went on to trade other things while I waited. In my primary account, I never risk more than about 2% on any given trade, sometimes less. So I'm never in a bind and it leaves me plenty of dry powder to do other trades.

My public account that I posted here is very different. It's a high risk account and I play with it a lot so I don't worry about percentages or even blowing it up...it's my gambling account. But it still does pretty well over a period of time since it's only a few thousand dollars. That account satisfied my adrenaline junkie Forex fix so I don't mess with my main account...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 07:56:12 pm
GU 4 Hour Chart

Hey Kermit, I'm looking at this GU chart and thinking it still has more downside coming soon. Once this partial retrace wraps up, the larger move down will manifest itself. I still think you have a good shot at hitting that lower FE 100 level near 1.22, although you may see some bounces in between.



Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 15, 2017, 08:24:20 pm
Hey gang, I just wanted to throw this out there for everybody. Keep in mind that when I post about the methods I use for myself, please remember that I'm not necessarily advocating that you adopt my methods. I'm not by any means a great trader . I just simply found something that works for me and I absolutely want each of you to do the same...find what works for you and stick with it. Please feel free to share any methods or ideas you have with the board. Believe me, everybody have something valuable to contribute here no matter where we are in our trading. That's the great part about working together as a team.

Anytime I make posts or comment on a trade or a post from someone else, I don't mean any disrespect to that trader or their method by any means. I just want to help in any way I can, as I believe we all do.

So just ignore my ramblings (as I'm prone to do from time to time)...I am officially old by the way so I guess that comes with the territory...LOL!

Just wanted to make sure I don't get anyone upset or offend anyone. I want the board here to do well and keep growing so we can all help others as they come along if they need it or ask for advice along the way.

So if I ever get to where I'm a pain in the ass, please feel free to tell me immediately...I promise it won't bother me at all...ROFL!  :-)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 16, 2017, 04:52:15 am
Shorting GU at 1.2518, looking for 1.21 TP.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 16, 2017, 05:08:38 am
Moving my EG long target up to .88.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 16, 2017, 06:06:21 am
Mornin' Pennies. I hope nobody is overly swayed by anybody's trading. There is too much to take into account. Time frames, for one. And the fact that the chart read can change as events unfold. A pattern may be broken. I've found in my own trading that my biggest wins come when your reading and mine agree (but not every time!). Risky when we disagree and I follow my read. Disastrous when we disagree and I ignore my read.

I have no understanding of wave counts other than that the number 5 comes up a lot. And if I don't enter or exit at leats once every couple days, I feel like I'm on the sidelines even. I use hourly and daily charts. Others use weekly, other 15-minute, so what is a good entry for one might be a bad entry for another.

You, by any standard, had a good entry on GU.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 16, 2017, 06:13:33 am
Morning Kermit. Yep things can change and sometimes change quickly. I can't begin to even count the times I've entered a trade, suffered a drawdown, and then gone back and had a "captain obvious" or Homer Simpson "doh!" moment when I finally saw clearly what was really happening...lol! So far so good om GU. I expect a substantial amount of downside coming there, likely even new daily lows. But 1.21 will do for starters. I just happened to look at the daily chart this morning and realized what was happening.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 16, 2017, 08:43:22 am
Been scratching my head over dollar weakness. At the start of the week, all the charts said strength. Yesterday and today got big dollar news, and yet here we are basically where we were on Monday. Forexlive thinks it has an explanation. If they're right--that a very big player is getting hammered on S&P shorts and is unwinding a big dollar position to cover, then this is artificial weakness that will go away when the player is done.

If they're right.

http://news.forexlive.com/!/is-there-a-big-liquidation-causing-the-current-malaise-in-the-dollar-20170216
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 16, 2017, 10:40:52 am
Very possible Kermit. If the volume overall is light enough, a single big player can move the market.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 16, 2017, 11:30:27 am
Closed out the EG long...that thing just moves too slow. GU short looking good now. Finally got some selling volume.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 16, 2017, 11:50:15 am
Closed out the GU short for about 44 pips profit. I just dont like the way it keeps stalling out. With my luck it'll fall apart now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 16, 2017, 04:32:04 pm
closed my gbp/jpy short for 95 pips.  now jumping in an AUD/CAD short @ 1.0052
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 16, 2017, 04:33:29 pm
Very nice trade on the Beast...congrats! 😃

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 16, 2017, 04:36:47 pm
Closed out the EG long...that thing just moves too slow. GU short looking good now. Finally got some selling volume.

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haha EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP both. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 16, 2017, 04:38:50 pm
Very nice trade on the Beast...congrats! 😃

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Thanks, you caught that Gbp/usd short nicely this morning as well
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 16, 2017, 04:41:43 pm
Yeah wish it had kept going but I just take what the market offers. I just glanced at Acad. I might join you short on that one but it looks like one more pop is coming so I'm gonna wait a bit longer.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 16, 2017, 05:37:18 pm
Just got home and took a good look at the ACAD chart. It's definitely got upside coming, potentially as high as 1.03 in coming days. For now, I'm long at 1.0065 with near term TP set at 1.0120 conservatively.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 16, 2017, 06:01:09 pm
Just got home and took a good look at the ACAD chart. It's definitely got upside coming, potentially as high as 1.03 in coming days. For now, I'm long at 1.0065 with near term TP set at 1.0120 conservatively.

gonna have to watch it closely if you're seeing that.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 16, 2017, 06:07:50 pm
Its pulled back to complete a 4th wave TDI patter and its setting up for a 5th wave pop which is usually the best.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 17, 2017, 04:46:15 am
Closed my audcad short for 25 pips. done for week.  have good weekend
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 17, 2017, 06:07:35 am
Good job ForexTrader! Still waiting on the final move up but I feel pretty good about hanging onto this one for a bit.

Have a great weekend.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 17, 2017, 07:05:21 am
15 Minute ACAD chart seems to be lining up for a nice bounce the rest of the day.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 17, 2017, 07:11:22 am
Good job ForexTrader! Still waiting on the final move up but I feel pretty good about hanging onto this one for a bit.

Have a great weekend.

i actually wouldn't be surprised if it dropped more into next week but didnt feel like holding over the weekend.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 17, 2017, 07:14:57 am
Could be. But I haven't seen the normal type of completion thrust I normally look for to signify a top. But I've been wrong before...lol! I'm gonna give it some slack in this area and see how the wave count progresses. I was watching the 4 hour chart and forgot to go back and check the 15 minute chart to wait for the minor wave retraces to play out.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 17, 2017, 07:25:35 am
UCAD daily chart still setting up for a nice pop here soon with a wedge breakout. ACAD should follow it up when that happens.

That should be accompanied by a sell off in oil.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 17, 2017, 07:47:08 am
And of course GU is falling apart which is making EG run north hard now...both of which I didn't hold long enough...LOL! Sometimes I really hate being right.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 17, 2017, 06:25:03 pm
Week 7 Wrap up:

Start: $93.82
Goal: $97.84
Attained: $103.23


Finally, a good week where the pairs did more or less what I expected. I stuck with GU all week and was in and out of it several times. I didn’t always play it well, but I played it well enough and gained just over 10% on the week. I also broke the first psychological barrier at $100.00

Gained $9.41.

I’ll take a look at the charts again later and post next week’s play before Sunday’s open.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 17, 2017, 08:59:17 pm
Very nice Kermit! Those are awesome gains. Well done.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 18, 2017, 03:36:34 pm
Week 8 Post

Start: $103.23
Goal: $107.45

This is the first week there wasnít a clear choice for my play of the week. Every chart has something unclear about it. Iím looking most closely at: NU and GU

EU: People here seem to think itís ready to pop. The chart looks unclear to me, so I will move on to the next one and come back if that pop starts to happen.

UJ: Looks like the next move is down, but itís sitting on a fib from the last move so Ii will wait and see.

GU: This had been the backbone of my trading the last couple months, but Iím not confident of what itís doingóit should drop a lot, but it does so much sideways and pops, Iím a bit tired of it.
The daily still says down, but the hourly looks about tapped out, so I will watch this instead of playing it.

NU: Which brings us to NU. I still expect this to go down, but like GU, itís been unreliable. The daily is in an expanding wedge and the hourly says down. The 4 hour especially looks down. Iím a bit hesitant because of the interest cost of holding a short for more than few days, but this is where I will open my week.

First play of the week: NU short. But I will monitor the others and bail if any of them develops before NU does.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 19, 2017, 03:33:31 pm
Pre-market futures showings gaps up on CAD pairs. Acad is up 20 pips above its Friday close. We'll see how it plays out this week. Still looking for 1.0120 TP on my long position.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 19, 2017, 03:57:43 pm
Merkel announced that the Euro is too low for Germany's tastes. Not reflected in pre-market prices, but it hints at policy changes to come.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 19, 2017, 04:12:31 pm
Pennies, have you ever played EUR:NZD?

If EUR > USD > NZD, then this is another one of those cut out the middle man plays and go straight to EUR > NZD.

Just a thought.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 19, 2017, 06:31:24 pm
Yes, I've played it many times Kermit. I actually have that one on my radar to go long for a nice pop later. It's not quite ready yet but it's getting close based on the weekly and monthly charts. The spreads are a bit high but not too bad. I did have 1 long position going but I've already closed it for a small profit.

A small long position can be taken in this area with expectations of a rise later to 1.7656 but I'm waiting on the daily chart to give me a signal first. It could ease down a bit more first.

Here's the monthly chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 19, 2017, 06:34:10 pm
ACAD 4 Hour Chart with Targets

My primary target near term is the first fib cluster, which should be in the 1.0135 area, which is why I have mine set a bit lower at 1.0120. The next fib cluster is sitting at 1.02 and the final fib cluster is sitting in the low to mid 1.03's.

The monthly chart shows that the 1.03's is the ultimate destination but I'm going to weave in and out along the way with expected pullbacks giving opportunities to get back in on the larger trend.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 19, 2017, 08:13:16 pm
That's a seriously long term pay with the EURNZD. 3000 pips in the next year!


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 19, 2017, 08:15:29 pm
Yeah. Those are the kind of setups I love with long term chart plays. Just set it and forget it.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 20, 2017, 09:19:11 am
I closed that EN for a couple pips--I'm not used to it and the sideways motion was making me nervous. Meanwhile, the pop in GU makes me more comfortable shorting, which I did.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 09:23:09 am
I'm not really comfortable shorting GU anymore currently. The larger pullback never did materialize but it still might later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 09:39:37 am
GU Weekly Chart

Here's what I'm waiting for next Kermit. The weekly TDI pattern shows 5 waves complete in the contracting triangle. Next, we usually see a high volume breakout move topside. After that, I like to see a deep retrace that comes back to near the lows or possibly even a new low. After that, longs will be the play for quite some time.

For now, I'm looking for a high volume topside pop within the next week or two.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 20, 2017, 09:40:23 am
I'm just loitering with an Aud/Cad long set this morning based on pennies TDI wave count which makes sense to me though my own 4 hour TDI wave count shows wave 5 already ended so either pennies is right or I'll be looking to add to my position later.     And I have an E/A long based on the weekly chart though again the low time frames look weak for a long to me here.    And then I've got my Aud/Nzd still underwater by 70 odd pips which I really don't want to close out for a loss though I could see it dropping before I get out at a profit despite pennies expectations.    He's got the much better track record for accurately counting waves on the main chart and the TDI so I'm going to see if he's got it right on those pairs.    Wish I were far better at scalping off the lower time frames.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 09:49:54 am
GU Daily Chart

We have a Wave 4 TDI count that's either complete or very nearly so, which still leaves room for a 5th wave TDI push north. That's usually the strongest wave movement.

The TDI has pulled back considerably but price hasn't followed it down, which qualifies it as hidden bullish divergence. Since the weekly has completed 5 waves down, I would expect that the next daily move up to complete it's 5th wave movement in this current cycle will terminate at one of the 2 levels I have listed above. The FE 61.8 is the most likely but I can't rule out the FE 100 just above 1.30.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 20, 2017, 10:02:51 am
pennies......have you got an annotated  4 hour chart on G/U with TDI wave counts you could throw up?    I can't put a good count to it with all this side trending.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 10:15:55 am
The 4 hour GU chart is a bit messy on the count Qui.

Basically, the large white numbers I have listed are the currently daily TDI wave count. The yellow numbers are the current 4 hour count. The smaller blue numbers would represent the hourly TDI wave count.

Price can most certainly drop back from here with no problem. But if the TDI breaks that top trendline, the daily Wave 4 pullback is over and it's getting ready to push up on a 5th Wave daily which is likely to cause the weekly contracting triangle to give way topside as well.

Either way, for me it's just too dangerous to try shorting anymore in this area even if it does have another drop coming first because near term, it's setting up to pop.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 20, 2017, 10:27:23 am
This site is a bit wanky.   It occasionally shows me logged out then when I go back and click on home it shows me logged in again.    I just tried to reply to your post pennies, but got an error message then I tried again and I got a duplicate post message then I looked and my reply didn't show at all.    Sometimes pics show but only when I'm logged in.   It's better than ihub but it's not without problems.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 10:30:18 am
Yep, that's true Qui. I went with this one because it's a free "out of the box" type setup that I was able to customize without having to pay a monthly service fee to maintain on a remote server. It's not perfect by any means but it's cheap...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 20, 2017, 10:33:54 am
I do like cheap!   My wife and I have been listening to Dave Ramsay on his "live like noone else, so later you can live like noone else", which means go without and tearing up credit cards and living on beans and rice.    It takes some discipline for sure.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 10:34:54 am
Yes, I taught an entire course by Dave Ramsey years ago. It was very enlightening. That was back before I discovered Forex of course.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 10:36:23 am
EUR/NZD Weekly Chart

I mentioned earlier when I posted the EZ monthly chart that I was waiting on a signal to enter long and hold for the larger move up. What I need to see next is one level down...the weekly chart.

I want to see the TDI break out above that white trend line at the bottom and then come back down to retest it. At that point, I'll go long and hold.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 10:49:46 am
Man, I hate bank holidays like today. No volume to push things around.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 01:38:10 pm
Bailed out on the ACAD long for a bit over break even. It just isn't moving much today and I'd rather wait and let things get back to normal tonight and get ready to hit it again in the morning at London open.

With my luck, it'll explode topside now...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 01:45:17 pm
Going ahead a bit ahead of schedule and taking a small long position on Eur/NZD. TP set for 1.76 even. The wedge pattern is extremely tight now and it's only a matter of time before it pops north. Long at 1.4779.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 20, 2017, 05:24:13 pm
Took a dozen pips on A/C then closed out and missed out on a few more so far.     Joined your E/N long pennies.   Gotta question....did you delete your youtube vids on the ihub board?    I can't find any of them.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 05:25:40 pm
I got rid of the youtube stuff Qui. Now that I've got the H.O.T. system developed, I only make videos for that.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 20, 2017, 05:28:05 pm
Thats a shame as they were excellent and I looked for them to catch things I might have missed and to brush up.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 20, 2017, 05:31:56 pm
I show the TDI fast line having moved up through the wave trend line on the 15 minute e/n chart.   Hoping it continues to on the hourly chart.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 05:33:07 pm
The problem with those old videos is that they were all over the place. They were based on several different systems and they only served to confuse people overall. The system I use currently that has the TDI wave counting at it's core is by far the best and most accurate. It has mathematical entries and exits with no variation for guessing. I like a streamlined system with solid rules for entries and exits and I haven't seen one that comes as close to that as the system I use now.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 20, 2017, 05:35:19 pm
I'm getting better at placing wave counts to the TDI but I still struggle with it.    My biggest obstacle is placing that initial 1st wave and after that it's the numerous minor wave that get in the way at times.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 05:35:54 pm
I show the TDI fast line having moved up through the wave trend line on the 15 minute e/n chart.   Hoping it continues to on the hourly chart.

Near as I can tell Qui, the ACAD hourly charts shows a current TDI Wave 3 up. So I'm waiting on a Wave 4 retrace to hop in for the better, faster movement...probably sometime tomorrow.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 05:39:24 pm
I'm getting better at placing wave counts to the TDI but I still struggle with it.    My biggest obstacle is placing that initial 1st wave and after that it's the numerous minor wave that get in the way at times.

The easiest way to grasp the TDI wave count system is to pick a longer term chart like a weekly or daily to start with. Look at the absolute highest high you can see or the absolute lowest low you can find. The highest highs and the lowest lows are either Wave 2 or Wave 4 in the count process, usually Wave 2.

So the general rule of thumb for any time frame is to find the lowest low or highest high and expect the counts to move from there. If you haven't gone through them, I have the H.O.T training videos posted on my Dropbox account at this link. Start with the introduction video and go from there in order...

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/yrtalr0e0df9qn4/AADSRJfZlHk1BwDhYSMYvWeia?dl=0
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 20, 2017, 05:46:36 pm
Your A/Cad chart is a good example of my stumbling.    Why didn't you make that prior lowest wave a wave 2 or 4?    I'm not disagreeing with your count, just needing to know how you determine whether the highest or lowest is the wave 2 or 4?    I've seen the HOT vids and never got any clarity to that major question.   Time for dinner...
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 05:56:11 pm
This is only the hourly chart, Qui. I've already laid out the count on the higher time frames so I don't need to label every single wave on the smaller time frames. Always use top-down analysis. Start with the highest time frame like the weekly or monthly and work your way down from there.

For example, here's my current 4 hour ACAD chart with the current wave count. Since I was planning on the small Wave 4 count in blue to already be finished, I just dropped to the hourly and started labeling what I thought was the correct count based on the TDI rules list. The hourly wave count reflects the status of the current TDI green line pointing up on the 4 hour chart.

Always look at the big picture first. If you start out by trying to hone in too close, you'll get lost in the shuffle.

ACAD 4 Hour Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 07:23:57 pm
My UCAD trade is off and running now. Nice break of the price trendline. Still have 1.34 set as TP on this one.

Daily Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 20, 2017, 09:33:06 pm
EA Hourly Chart

This looks like the best near term play for a pop soon. Currently, it's wrapping up 5 waves down on the TDI in a falling wedge pattern. The FE 100 around 1.3760 is a likely low target but what we need to see in conjunction with that is a break above the TDI wedge pattern followed by a retest of the upper wedge line as support as the price meets the FE 100 level. If both line up together, a nice bounce is possible.

So I'll be watching this pair for longs tomorrow or whenever the pattern sets up properly.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 06:21:56 am
Example of waiting for the TDI pattern to Complete

This is one of the key components of TDI wave counting. Even when you think you have a good count, there are rules that have to be followed in order to determine if a count is complete in one direction.

I posted both of these charts yesterday with the same key note on each...wait for a TDI breakout and retest before going long on these pairs. In both cases, there is a key trend in place across the top peaks of the TDI. For those of you who watched my training videos, remember that Waves 1 and 3 break formation...in other words, they break TDI trend lines. Once that occurs, then we can obtain more information regarding the trade.

But, if the trend line does not break, regardless of what you think the count on the TDI is, then price will almost definitely continue in the same direction. The 4 hour GU chart I have here is exactly the same one I posted yesterday, unchanged.

The EA hourly chart has been updated to show a new probable low end target simply because the TDI trendline never broke topside...so price dropped back again. So we still have to wait.

This is how the TDI wave counting setup can keep you out of a potentially bad trade. It's very good at determining near term tops and bottoms once you get used to the method.

GU 4 hour and EA hourly...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 06:49:11 am
Long EG for a while this morning at 0.8491. Should be set to move up today again.

Looking for a return to 0.8560 or so.

EDIT: Confirmed TP set at 0.8555.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 21, 2017, 09:02:43 am
I'll try posting a reply again......thanks pennies for posting the GU and EA chart interpretations.    First thing I do now is draw TDI trend lines even before drawing them on the price action.   I do get the "TDI breakout and retest" pattern now and that's my second go to visually on the chart.    Curious though.......what would you say is the percentage rate of failure for that pattern trade since the very few times I've tried trading off it they usually failed.    I think it's just my bad luck.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 09:11:32 am
Trying to trade just a retest of a TDI trendline isn't enough Qui. If you take any single tool, no matter how good it is, and try to use it as a stand alone tool, it will fail far too often to be effective. The TDI wave counting method is just one part of an entire tool kit that I use to evaluate trades. When I look at a chart, there are literally a dozen different things that I try to have lined up before I take a trade. So, to answer your question, a failure rate on a single item is probably too high for comfort. But the failure rate on a system based on good, solid TA tools that are used as a whole for each trade, is pretty low.

I still strongly recommend a checklist like the one I posted in the introduction video I made. If most or all of those items can't be checked off before taking a trade, I don't take the trade.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 09:14:13 am
Raising my target on my EG long up to 0.86. Gotta head out for the day gang. Everybody have a good one.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 21, 2017, 09:16:54 am
Seems I need to review the HOT system again.    Good day to you pennies.   Talk at ya later.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 10:11:04 am
Seems like I'm always early to the party. EA, EG, and EZ all working on final bottoms now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 10:44:19 am
Took profit on my Ucad long. Seems to be stalling out.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 10:48:43 am
Looks like the dollar rally is about to end.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 21, 2017, 11:37:34 am
Got the HOT checklist in hand and your mention of placing a wave 1 at the top of the trend line of an ascending channel/wedge versus at the lower trend line on a descending channel/wedge was what I was missing in helping to clarify TDI wave counting.    All that shows in your dropbox was the intro vids though so I need to research the ADR and Time of Day items on the list.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 11:56:49 am
Acad is running as expected and I didn't hold the trade. I really hate being right sometimes...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 21, 2017, 02:04:15 pm
Would love to see a 15 minute TDI wave chart count on E/A.    This price action wave down beginning the 17 of Feb to present looks to be in a wave 3 trying to find its bottom before a wave 4 up, but I'm not getting a TDI wave count that wan't to support the price action channel down.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 02:58:30 pm
15 minute chart wont mean much Qui. The larger time frames are in control. They point to a wave 4 back up coming.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 05:11:40 pm
I know GU is going to break out at some point on the weekly chart but I'm still surprised we haven't seen a deeper retrace on the smaller time frames. Very curious...

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 06:39:07 pm
I've looked at GU from several angles and if a gun was put to my head and I had to choose, I'd have to choose short. I just can't justify any real upside from here...not yet at least.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 21, 2017, 07:30:45 pm
I've looked at GU from several angles and if a gun was put to my head and I had to choose, I'd have to choose short. I just can't justify any real upside from here...not yet at least.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 07:34:17 pm
Correct Forextrader. It all hinges on that contracting triangle. The 4 hour chart on the TDI count is the one I'm watching closely. A downside break will kick in some heavy selling.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 07:40:00 pm
The Elliott wave count on that GU contracting triangle suggests that it's a wave 2 consolidation with a big wave 3 down yet to come. We shall see...

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 21, 2017, 07:47:17 pm
The Elliott wave count on that GU contracting triangle suggests that it's a wave 2 consolidation with a big wave 3 down yet to come. We shall see...

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a big move up or down looks to be in the cards
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 08:52:57 pm
I vote for down but I'm biased...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 10:33:19 pm
GU 4 Hour and EA Daily Chart with Wave Counts

Ok gang, here it is as best I can figure it at this point. GU is ready to drop into at least a Wave C formation that should at least make a slightly lower low than the last overall cycle. EG, in contrast, is consolidating in a large contracting triangle.

So I'm looking for EG to make it's way up to around 0.8690, give or take, as GU tanks again.

In the long term, EG is slated to really burn it's way north as GU ultimately tanks hard again to make new daily lows.

For now, I'm looking for 0.8680 as a TP on my current long although I'm sure I'll close it earlier than that.

The GU formation currently makes me think this move up on EG should be fairly linear in nature so once it gets going, I don't expect a lot of pullbacks.

GU 4 hour chart first followed by EG Daily Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 21, 2017, 10:40:15 pm
EA Hourly Chart

Ready to rock and roll here...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 22, 2017, 07:14:52 am
ACAD Final 4 Hour Chart

Fib cluster was hit perfectly as expected so my 1.0120 target would have easily filled.

Like I said, I hate being right and not holding...sigh...

Same chart, same annotations with the exception that I've filled in the rest of the TDI wave count at the bottom.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 22, 2017, 07:16:36 am
Modified TP on the EG long just a bit lower from 0.8680 to .8675.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 22, 2017, 07:25:35 am
TP on the current EA long set for 1.4350. Then I expect one more push down to make a final new low before it pops hard back topside for larger gains later on.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 22, 2017, 08:35:42 am
EA Hourly Chart TDI Breakout

Finally got the breakout condition set up now. All we need to see is the TDI retrace back to the top trendline it broke out of and then go long. Price could make one more new low as that happens.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 22, 2017, 12:40:26 pm
loving all these charts-been doctor-[just regular stuff] visiting too much lately-got behind on your posts-now i'm going to study them-i really am interesting in your tdi count-am i right you said you might make a video on the tdi count
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 22, 2017, 12:42:33 pm
Yep thats right Jav. That dropbox link I posted has several introductory videos detailing the system I developed. The TDI wave counting is only part of the system but its a very key component.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 22, 2017, 02:15:09 pm
NU won't die  :'(
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 22, 2017, 02:16:17 pm
It will in time Jav. The overall pattern for the drop is based on a weekly chart so its not a fast development.

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Title: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 22, 2017, 03:18:53 pm
Won't die? It won't even move! If it were a person we'd be giving it last rights it's so comatose. But instead it's just boring me to death.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 22, 2017, 03:32:26 pm
Lol! Yep Kermit, near term its like watching paint dry.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 22, 2017, 05:35:59 pm
Raising my target on my EJ long from 123 to 125.50.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 22, 2017, 06:30:04 pm
I just imported TDI into my MT4. Let's see how long it takes me to make heads or tails of it.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 22, 2017, 06:34:51 pm
You'll love it Kermit. But I have to tell you that there are different versions of the TDI floating around out there. The one I recommend is the Synergy_TDI_Basic.ex4 file for MT4. If you need a copy, I have it on the dropbox link where the training videos are. You'll actually find that the Green Fast line on the TDI is basically just like the RSI 14.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 22, 2017, 07:20:41 pm
I'll try that one. Thanks. The one I have is 13, 34, 2, 7. I got it from earnforex.com because it was the top hit on my google search.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 22, 2017, 07:23:01 pm
Not sure about that one Kermit. You can try it and see. As long as its not one of the customized ones that someone has altered the coding on, it should be fine.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 22, 2017, 07:36:52 pm
Nah, I'll swap it for yours. It would just confuse me if I'm trying to follow your readings on my pairs and we have different settings. It's bad enough the MT4 on my mac includes the weekends but oanda on my ipad does not.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 03:55:24 am
EG in a minor wave 2 retrace. The next move up should be a big pop.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 04:00:27 am
Expecting GU to head deep south as EG pops later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 04:29:12 am
GU bulls gonna be in some deep doo-doo by tonight...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 05:57:40 am
Really need to see one more push up on GU here to get back closer to 1.25 to wrap up the minor wave 2 bounce.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 06:05:04 am
There we go. Thats the final thrust type move up on GU I wanted to see. Final C wave in an ABC wave 2 zig zag. Wave 2 up complete or very nearly so.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 06:06:48 am
Looks like GU shorts anywhere in this 1.2480 area are going to pay off nicely.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 06:26:25 am
Watching the 30 second and 1 minute charts on GU waiting for the pattern breakdown...very close now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 06:40:29 am
GU 30 second chart shows a pattern breakdown here at 6:38 AM central. Might see one more push to make essentially a double top and then it's over. The rest of the time frames will topple like dominoes. Gotta run gang. Everybody have a good one.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 07:33:43 am
With all this rambling I'm doing this morning, please keep in mind that if GU breaks above that 4 hour triangle pattern, near term bearish prospects are null and void. We have to be able to admit when a trade no longer makes sense. I'm not infallible...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 07:45:42 am
Essentially a double top on GU. Is that the nail in the coffin? Probably so but time will tell.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 07:49:39 am
GU still looks like an ABC completion topside. Still sticking with my bearish wave count unless it breaks the previous high just above 1.25.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 07:50:59 am
Gotta get back to work...brother in law is calling...lol! Later gang...

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 23, 2017, 08:04:10 am
It doesn't help that today's economic data is weak. This would be a tell, though: if GU can't hold the news pop, then it's ready to go back down. Even though it's above 1.25, I'm inclined to give it a few hours to see. If it pops again, I'll be kicking myself. (I'm already kicking myself for not bailing yesterday morning when it almost hit my TP--"almost" because I drew the lines wrong and set it 10 pips too low.)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 08:06:53 am
It just broke the triangle topside Kermit so the near term bearish pattern is off the table. Could be a larger ABC retrace though so all hope isn't gone by any means. I'm not in GU directly. EG still shows strong potential upside so at some point EU is gonna have to outrun GU. The most effective way to do that is with a GU drop. We'll see how it plays out.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 08:10:59 am
One thing I should mention here. Triangle patterns can overthrow the final leg easily and then fall apart afterwards. So the pattern could still be uber bearish. Its the market's way of running stops before screwing everybody. It happens in Forex more often than stocks because of the high liquidity.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 23, 2017, 08:16:28 am
"Overshoot" came up in a discussion a couple days ago, when you linked to your pattern page. While not saying that's what's happening, this is the place in the triangle where it happens. That fact that it's in the context of a news pop makes me willing to wait a bit and see if it holds before throwing in the towel and taking my lumps.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 08:19:42 am
Agreed Kermit.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 08:30:29 am
I still see 5 TDI waves completed topside on GU in spite of the slight new high so it still looks bearish unless something major happens.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 08:51:51 am
Looks like EG needs to drop a bit more so GU may still have a bit of topside left in it.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 08:53:26 am
I would still swear that GU is nothing more than a bearish ABC pattern bounce before a sell off. Its the only pattern that fits.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 08:55:33 am
If GU is a standard ABC I'd look for it to make maybe 1.2525 to 1.2535 top end.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 09:07:42 am
5 TDI waves complete on GU lower time frames. I'm looking for a wave 1 pullback and then a TDI wave 2 back up on GU to make a slight new high before it rolls over and dies. Still think 1.2525 to 1.2535 or so will wrap it up.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 10:05:48 am
Guess the market had other plans in mind. Looks like the bullish hidden divergence I saw the other day on the daily GU chart was right after all. Larger time frames rule the roost. Still has a long way to go though before I'd label it bullish on a larger time frame. The daily pattern shows no breakout and until it does, the best play is still down. Even once it does breakout, a pullback is required to retest which still results in a new low overall.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 10:11:06 am
GU 15 minute TDI count still says the GU bounce is a corrective ABC...I don't care what the price says. That's my story and I'm sticking to it...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 10:25:24 am
Kermit, I think we go sucked into watching the wrong triangle before it was fully formed. Here's the 4 hour GU chart with the more likely pattern in place.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 23, 2017, 10:31:18 am
I was about to post that it's been a while since I've taken a bath on a trade and was maybe due for some humble pie, but if you're right, that not only have we not broken out of the triangle, but that the next leg is down, I'm ok with that. I'll be more careful about not giving back the next gains and reload at the next top.

Unfortunately, my best charts are at home so I'm basically a spectator right now.

Edit: One question--The placement of the "C" in that triangle--since it's only the second hit on the top line, aren't we premature in calling it?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 11:43:27 am
No, the C wave is always the 2nd hit regardless. But the pattern definitely isn't confirmed until it breaks below the bottom trendline so yes, it could be premature to call it a done deal. Corrective waves are notoriously hard to predict and trade.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 11:46:35 am
I now show 5 waves down on the TDI hourly EG chart. That should lead to a minor 1 up followed by a minor 2 down that can retest the low on this current leg. That goes more or less with what I see on GU right now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 01:29:52 pm
Funny thing...I was looking back over the GU lower time frames and almost none of them recorded any volume on that spike. Its like it materialized and then vanished...ultra light volume recorded. That means it could turn out to be an exhaustion move...possibly due to stop loss triggers. I guess we'll see later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 23, 2017, 01:36:51 pm
Another TA 101 question: I considered exhaustion move, but I thought they came at the end of a run and collapsed relatively quickly. This one is coming after a long period of sideways movement and has fallen back a little but not much. Holding strong about 15 pips off the top.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 01:40:34 pm
Could be Kermit. But I've seen them fiddle around near the highs before and then collapse later. NU did it a while back after a news pop. It hovered for quite a while near the highs and then fell apart later without making new highs. We're basically in wait and see mode at this point.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 01:46:55 pm
15 minute GU TDI pattern is breaking down now. Should be just a matter of time.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 05:07:10 pm
Ok, just got home...finally. The GU chart is, frankly, a mystery at this point. It should be set up to tank hard but it could follow EU up a bit more.

The best I can do is correlate it with what I've been seeing in the daily EG chart here. The price action is forming a very large expanding diagonal. The current triangle pattern I have drawn in represents the final back and forth action at the bottom trendline that's going on now.

So I still see once more up, then back down a bit, and then an explosion. At that point, I can't see a massive rally on GU.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 05:13:17 pm
Here's something that may help Kermit. This is the GU weekly chart. It's pretty well self-explanatory. The market has burned up a butt load of energy bouncing price around and the TDI has clocked in 3 higher highs but price has only managed 3 lower highs. That usually is a setup for a plunge. Plus, the TDI is right at the trendline. That usually drives it down once more before it has a chance of bouncing.

All in all, GU is still bearish even with the pop today. But these long term charts do have some slack in them so I can't say for sure where GU will top out on this move.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 23, 2017, 05:26:48 pm
Interesting divergence on the TDI. I would guess from the candle that it's more likely to go up, but the green line seems to require at least one more red candle before that can happen.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 23, 2017, 05:56:12 pm
Correct Kermit. Like a red candle that would take GU down to 1.20 or so.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 23, 2017, 07:01:31 pm
potential (inverse) head and shoulders pattern forming on E/U daily chart...
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 01:08:51 am
Looking for EG to base around this area and begin moving back up today, potentially with a strong move up.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 07:51:33 am
EU Weekly Chart

This is the same chart I've had for months now. Nothing has changed. Expected trajectory is still back to the top trend line.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 07:57:03 am
ACAD 4 Hour Chart

Finally breaking down after completing the 5th TDI wave here. This is only the first move down though. Currently, it's in a TDI Wave 3 down movement. When Wave 4 retraces, it should make a decent short opportunity. After that, I'd expect another bounce.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 07:58:57 am
EA Daily Chart

Same chart...expecting a nice northerly move back to the upper trendline.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 08:00:39 am
EUR/NZD Weekly Chart

Still setting up for a massive push north on this one. TP level unchanged at the FE 61.8 level.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 08:13:46 am
UJ Weekly Chart

Unchanged...my TP is still set for 107.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: mahinui on February 24, 2017, 10:05:29 am
pennies
  For about a month now I have been selling USD/JPN and EUR/USD and although they generally move in opposite directions, they alternate so I have been able to make about $4,000 by alternately closing and re-opening my orders each time making between $40 and $500.  All of this is because of your prediction that the US/JP will go down.  Thanks a bunch.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 10:09:06 am
Excellent mahinui! Very good trading on your part. I'm glad to help any way I can. Please feel free to post any trading ideas or methods with the board. I firmly believe that everyone has something valuable to contribute and it makes us all better traders.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 12:12:10 pm
Looks like GU was a head fake C wave top as expected. I'm still looking for that sucker to drop hard next week.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 01:22:41 pm
I'm gonna bail out of my EG long around .85 and wait for the next leg to set up. There's still a chance GU could bounce out of that smaller triangle as its retesting it. Better to take the money and wait for more clarity later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 01:29:45 pm
EG setting up for the next leg up on the 5 minute chart. Dont know if theres gonna be enough volume today to finish driving it but we'll see.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: mahinui on February 24, 2017, 02:00:24 pm
In a few minutes FXCM will no longer exist.  FOREX.com will take over (and GAIN Capital will hold the funding).
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 02:02:52 pm
Yeah I heard they got in trouble. I tried them back when I first started trading Forex and I hated the way the trades executed. A month later, I switched to Oanda and I've been with them ever since.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 24, 2017, 02:12:43 pm
NU 4 HOUR --old resistance
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 24, 2017, 03:08:30 pm
Week 8 Wrap up:

Start: $103.23
Goal: $107.45
Attained: $110.02

Despite beating my goal by a fair amount, this week ends with a sigh of relief, not the thrill of victory. I could have done just as well by closing everything Wednesday morning, but I held and gave it all back. I got another chance Thursday morning, but held and got slammed by a totally unexpected pop in GU.

I opened another short position near the top and made good bank on it. My main positions I closed for small gains after today's big drop. Coupled with some small gains earlier in the week when I wasnít so greedy, I cleared 6.5%.

I got lucky.

Iíll take a look at the charts again later and post next weekís play before Sundayís open.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 24, 2017, 08:06:56 pm
ACAD 4 Hour Chart

Finally breaking down after completing the 5th TDI wave here. This is only the first move down though. Currently, it's in a TDI Wave 3 down movement. When Wave 4 retraces, it should make a decent short opportunity. After that, I'd expect another bounce.

inverted head and shoulders on daily. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 10:36:01 pm
GU 4 Hour Chart

Trying to put a final count on this thing...it's a pain. This is the closest I have. In this case, I'd look for a retrace back to the 71.6 fib level right near 1.26.

Of course, I'll have to watch the hourly time frame to get a clear idea of whether or not price will stop there or not. The TDI count will give me the targets as they unfold. GU still needs to move back down closer to 1.24 though before it can bounce.



Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 10:46:30 pm
EG 30 Minute Chart

This one also gives the same impression as the GU chart. A bit more downside on GU will give us the final push on EG up to 0.8510 or so. Then another dip back down to the lows or maybe even a slight new low.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 11:20:00 pm
EA Weekly Chart

Wave count is complex but I feel it to be accurate. Bottom line is that we need a TDI breakout of the trendline to be able to find a bottom before the larger move back up. Currently though, we are looking at a move back up in the channel to near 1.44. That move is likely to be the move up that precedes the final low coming right afterwards...Wave 1 up and a Wave 2 back down. Then we can find a spot to go long for the larger move up later.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 11:32:47 pm
ACAD Weekly Chart

This thing is going to be a regular ATM machine for a long time to come. Very predictable 3-3-3-3-3 flag pattern that will ultimately result in a deep sell off. But in the meantime, it is getting ready to start dropping hard. We need to see one more pop topside to set it up for the larger decline. The price action trendline break today is the clue...we need to see a retest of that broken trendline, even if it results in a slight new high.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 24, 2017, 11:38:25 pm
ACAD 4 Hour Chart

Close up view of what's coming next. When we get that minor Wave 2 retrace, price should be retesting the trendline about the same time. When that happens, we need to short the crap out of it because it's going to set up for a major fall.



Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 25, 2017, 07:29:38 pm
Week 9 Post

Start: $110.02
Goal: $114.45

Looking at my usual pairs, I’m not seeing anything in particular that I like right now.

NU: 4 HR looks down, but the one hour is right on the tunnel and the TDI is turning up. Probably be good for a short entry Monday. I’ll keep an eye on it.

UJ: The daily looks down. But the 1 HR and 4 HR are turning up. Again, maybe short on Monday or Tuesday, but not right out of the gate on Sunday.

EN: this one’s my favorite right now. The 1 HR, 4 HR, and the daily all look down. I can see where’s there’s a big pop coming on the weekly, but probably not this week.

AUDCAD: I haven’t looked at this pair before, it’s not one I play, but I can see what Pennies’ saying about the 1 HR and 4 HR turning up but the daily crashing. Will keep an eye on it and consider shorting it on Monday or Tuesday.

GU: I feel like I’m getting careless with the GU, so I will sit that one out for the next couple rounds.

Play: If I take a position Sunday night (who am I kidding? Of course I will! I can’t stay on the sidelines) it will be EN short. Meanwhile, I will keep an eye on NU, UJ, and AC. I will try very hard not to keep an eye on GU.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 25, 2017, 07:45:50 pm
I'm trying to practice good trading discipline, not just make money every week (that least of all since we are talking about a few dollars here, literally!). But my weekly wrap ups focus on wins and losses, I'm not using this forum to keep me honest like I should. So I went back to the first post on Jan 1 where I set out a series of goals for my trading. These were those:

1)   To minimize confirmation bias, I will keep the charts simple. Just use a few of my favorite lines and indicators.

Doing well on that. I use one indicator (used to be the RSI, just switched to the TDI), the tunnel EMAs, and the obvious support/resistance lines

2)   Make fewer higher percentage trades. If I am having success with a particular pair, stick with that pair until the luck runs out.

I think I do this, I generally pick one pair and enter/exit as the price action indicates

3)   Stay all cash if there isn’t a good set up.

Not so hot. I hate staying all cash.

4)   Part of identifying a good entry is identifying when the set up has failed. Set stop-losses and stick to them.

Full on failure. It kills me to take a loss. I've done it, but I've been ****-poor about going in with a disaster preparedness plan.


5)   If I leave a trade angry, I will go all cash for at least 2 days.

Haven't had to test it yet, but I'm not optimistic.

6)   Never under any circumstances carry an open trade into a market close. Exit the trade (generally shortly after lunch Friday). If trading is normal, I will get a chance to reenter at the same spot or better. If news drops, I may miss a big gap in my favor, but anticipating news is not trading, it’s gambling.

I have mostly done this. I am always looking for the exit on Friday, but I have not always closed out for the weekend.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 25, 2017, 09:33:22 pm
GbP/NzD looks like good short to me.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 25, 2017, 10:48:29 pm
Week 9 Post

Start: $110.02
Goal: $114.45

Looking at my usual pairs, Iím not seeing anything in particular that I like right now.

NU: 4 HR looks down, but the one hour is right on the tunnel and the TDI is turning up. Probably be good for a short entry Monday. Iíll keep an eye on it.

UJ: The daily looks down. But the 1 HR and 4 HR are turning up. Again, maybe short on Monday or Tuesday, but not right out of the gate on Sunday.

EN: this oneís my favorite right now. The 1 HR, 4 HR, and the daily all look down. I can see whereís thereís a big pop coming on the weekly, but probably not this week.

AUDCAD: I havenít looked at this pair before, itís not one I play, but I can see what Penniesí saying about the 1 HR and 4 HR turning up but the daily crashing. Will keep an eye on it and consider shorting it on Monday or Tuesday.

GU: I feel like Iím getting careless with the GU, so I will sit that one out for the next couple rounds.

Play: If I take a position Sunday night (who am I kidding? Of course I will! I canít stay on the sidelines) it will be EN short. Meanwhile, I will keep an eye on NU, UJ, and AC. I will try very hard not to keep an eye on GU.

Might have to put a damper on your EUR/NZD shorts there Kermit. While there is a bit more drop coming on EZ, it's not going to be much from what I can see before it pops again, at least temporarily. The TDI has established a new uptrend range for now and it's getting close to wrapping up a Wave 4 pullback. As soon as that pullback is finished, it's going to move up again. I have a probable bounce zone in place and, depending on where in the zone it bounces, that gives us a minimum zone bounce back to the low 1.47's. In the event of a stronger push up, we'll see the higher end of the 1.47's. Right now, the lower end of the zone around 1.4622 looks like the probable target before it bounces.

I'm still not real keen on shorts at these levels anyway because of the condition of the weekly chart but I will agree there is lots of wiggle room for some back and forth action before it blows north. To illustrate just how close we could be to a strong northerly move, I've also included a weekly line chart in addition to the hourly chart that I have posted here. We're basically retesting a breakout trend line here.

Hourly chart first followed by weekly line chart...
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 25, 2017, 11:02:09 pm
Just a reminder...watch this chart. AAPL will fall back before too many more weeks. We have a Wave 4 retrace complete. We'll likely see a minor Wave 1 down and then a minor Wave 2 back up for a final minor new high before it really sells...but drop it will. The TDI wave count says so.   ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 26, 2017, 04:58:37 am
 Thanks for the heads-up, pennies. I'll give it some more thought. There's nothing else I like right now among the pairs I look at.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 26, 2017, 08:42:22 am
EA Hourly Chart

Here's another good one Kermit...very much like EZ. Trend line breakout and it's showing a Wave 4 TDI pullback that's nearly complete. First target range would be the low 1.38's and second range would be near 1.39.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 26, 2017, 03:58:51 pm
I'm impressed and envious of those making much better than 1% weekly gains here but it helps keeps me positive that I can do it too.   Just not the way I've been going at it so far.
I managed to profit 1% average per week last year which with my starting $1000 will take me a decade or more years to get where I would want to be.    I'm at $1420 now.     I am going to step up my risk and shoot for 3% average per week.    With 3% gains I can be where I want to be in a few years instead of a decade.    So I guess that means taking 6% risk trades vice 2% and letting them run in my favor longer.     Cant beat a good timely initial entry either.   I'm either too early or I don't let the timely trades run long enough in my favor.    I take my 20 pips and close out only to find that I couldn't get back in lower near my original entry as I expected to.     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 26, 2017, 05:31:06 pm
Out of my EG long on the spike. EA looks like it might turn around early. Added an EA long at 1.3768, TP on this one set for 1.3850. Still holding the long term one for more topside later.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 26, 2017, 05:50:11 pm
Hi quant. You should trade the style you're comfortable with. 1% a week is nothing to sneeze at. Depending on your age, a decade is just fine for setting up a nice retirement account (I'm at the age where I think about such things).

I'm comfortable with a lot of risk and I've blown up a few accounts. It's my hope that learning how to exit properly will protect me, but when (if) I get to that point down the road where my account contains significant money, I may start taking smaller positions.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 26, 2017, 06:47:39 pm
Hi quant. You should trade the style you're comfortable with. 1% a week is nothing to sneeze at. Depending on your age, a decade is just fine for setting up a nice retirement account (I'm at the age where I think about such things).

I'm comfortable with a lot of risk and I've blown up a few accounts. It's my hope that learning how to exit properly will protect me, but when (if) I get to that point down the road where my account contains significant money, I may start taking smaller positions.


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Hey Kermit....sorry to hear that you've blown your account in the past.   I came so close to blowing my account once and was totally surprised by it when it happened, and that's when I took pennies 2% risk advice and have stuck with it until now.   I still don't want big risk but I need to increase it enough to make that 3% average weekly gains.   I'm running out of time to trade off the 1% risk style because I'm approaching retirement age, but 3% weekly gains would put me where I want to be at retirement age if I can get to the point of making that consistent 3% per week.     If you've been making 5% weeks on end now, then you are doing extremely well as long as you always have a stop set.     If you can say that in another year or two then I see no point in changing your risk amount.    Unless it rattles you to see all those dollar values change so dramatically, and then I can imagine that you'd be wise to protect your assets.     I've seen those 1500 pip days happen in pairs like Eur/Nzd on august 24, 2015 where if you were wrong side of the trade and had no stop in place then you could blow your account, so I still don't want that kind of risk, plus I don't have enough ideal initial entries to justify the risk.    Sometimes the price can run both directions a huge number of pips in one day too so I do set stops and TP marks from my entry to accommodate the swings.   Fingers crossed the TP gets hit first.    You are doing something very right with those 5% consistent gains and I hope to say the same about myself by next year or at least the 3% gains I am shooting for at a minimum.    I appreciate all your input on the board btw.         
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 26, 2017, 07:36:33 pm
Thanks quant. No worries on blowing the acount. I've been dabbling in forex for 10 years and made every mistake there is to make (one of my favourites in a moment). In terms of entertainment dollars, it's money well spent. That said, my purpose is not to buy entertainment, but to turn a profit on something I enjoy.

Right now I'm trying to do the forex equivalent of Milo of Croton. You've probably heard the story--he carried a bull every day from the day it was born. Since each day it was only a few pounds heavier then it was the day before, he was able to carry it until it was a full grown bull and he was the strongest man in Greece.

I started the year with $60. The idea behind starting with such a small amount is that the money is real (so not a practice account), but I can focus on the psychological aspects of trading and it will grow into real money so slowly that I will maintain my good habits. In theory.

My favorite bad trading decision was going long on GU without any planning. When I did it, it had gone up 800 pips without so much as a pause for breath and I figured, what're the chances it's done now? No, it's likely to keep going at least a little more. And I figured since it was nearly a sure thing and I wouldn't be in it long, I'd go in heavy. Wouldn't you know it, it turned around almost immediately and dropped 1,600 pips. I watched in horror the whole time waiting for a bounce so I could get a better exit. Completely wiped out the biggest account I'd had in years, or would have for years.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 26, 2017, 09:43:22 pm
Pennies i believe AUD/CAD is following your projection-you've got me looking at the Weekly chart too and cussing myself for where i entered two stupid trades--Thanks for the "eye opener' even tho i'm stuck right now still think i'll be ok
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 26, 2017, 10:52:30 pm
I think ACAD will prove to be a great short play before it's overwith Jav.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 26, 2017, 10:52:59 pm
Raising my TP on my EA long to 1.3875 instead of 1.3850.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:23:45 am
I think I'm gonna have to raise my EA target even further. I can easily see a run up to 1.40 from these levels so I think I'm just gonna leave my TP kind of open-ended and see just how strong a push we get over the next day or two.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:33:14 am
AU is going to be heading south for a pretty good clip over the next week or two.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 07:28:04 am
Gotta make myself just walk away and not take the current profit on my EA long. I refuse to take profits early when the larger run hasn't even gotten started good yet. Itchy trigger finger is the bane of many a trader including myself...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 07:32:43 am
Kermit......thats a stomach turning trade you've shared.     May it be your last one like it.     I've taken a position after a long move thinking it was the end a number of times and watched the trade immediately turn the opposing direction putting me in the red as soon as I entered.    Since going to the 2% risk trades I've just held them and waited them out and that's a big part of why my gains have only been 1% a week and that's why I'm rethinking my strategy.     And changing my strategy with increased risk is why I'm of the conviction that stop losses must be placed as soon as the trade entry is placed when trading large risk positions no matter what stage of a wave we think the pair is in on a 4 hour or greater chart.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 07:33:34 am
What about Eur/Nzd pennies?     Are you long now and what is your TP?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 07:50:14 am
Yep I'm long Eur/Nzd with a TP at 1.76...almost 3000 pips up from here.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 08:01:00 am
I saw your E/N chart from a couple pages back with TP but I was curious about the shorter term TP?    Sorry.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 08:02:35 am
There is no shorter term TP for me. That one is strictly a weekly chart play. Buy and hold and take a vacation while it does its thing...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 08:05:43 am
Well I'm a wimp. Closed out the EA flipper position for now. It'll go higher in this progression but this is only the first wave up in a daily wave 3. TDI daily wave 4 pullback will be the golden goose.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 08:13:53 am
I'm just going to close my most recent long when it hits the 21MA on the weekly chart and then leave my initial trade to either move up through the 21MA or watch it go against me for however many weeks I guess.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 08:19:25 am
Pennies........Is there any way to alert the members when a new post has been made while they are still on the page vice continuous travel from home page to most recent "forex trading" page?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 08:34:08 am
Pennies i believe AUD/CAD is following your projection-you've got me looking at the Weekly chart too and cussing myself for where i entered two stupid trades--Thanks for the "eye opener' even tho i'm stuck right now still think i'll be ok

Hi jav.....I hope you are steadily gaining ground at this game.    If we could just get on the right side of the weekly chart from when we place our initial entry then we could really make a killing at this.   I ran numbers a couple days ago and found that if I made 1% per week, each week, it would take me 9 years to make a million and that's if I didn't pay annual taxes on gains from the prior 8 years which I would have to of course.     At 3% it would take only 5 years to make over a million ($3 million would have actually been made) and by the 7th year, it would be $66.8 million.    Paying taxes would still get you over a million after the 5th year.    I didn't bother running 5% weekly gains but obviously it would take less time.    Just food for thought.    Good reason to keep at this but only if we can figure out how to make the most of the weekly chart.     Pennies may have figured it all out, but I'm still working on it.  lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 08:34:54 am
If you load the mobile app on your phone, it alerts you instantly with a push notification. You just click the notification on the phone and it takes you straight to the new post.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 08:44:03 am
Cool.    Thank you pennies.    I may or may not go with the app but it'd be nice if the site itself would alert.    I have to thank you for all your years of baby sitting me on top of your own trading.   If I ever make it, it will only be because of all your mentoring.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 09:14:06 am
I'll check the site admin settings and see if there's a push notification there as well. Glad to help any way I can Qui. Forex is a damned difficult market to trade for sure. Took me years to figure it out and I'm still learning but with a great group of folks on board here, it sure makes it easier.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 09:46:30 am
I don't know how you were able to master TDI wave counting to the degree you have pennies.    I've noticed that the TDI waves sometimes move either in channel pattern or wedge pattern mirroring price action.    I've also noticed them moving in opposing direction to price action.    I've noticed that the TDI waves will form an arc while price action continues to move in one direction rather than arc (or reverse direction) in wave movement as the TDI is doing.   And, vice versa.   

The easy part is identifying the topmost or bottom-most TDI wave, which is usually to be found reversing at some extreme point above or below the 32/68 levels.    Then you have to wait out a few minor, then a couple larger waves, to begin to identify a potential channel or wedge, but then the smaller wave patterns get in the way or price action changes direction making it tough to identify that 4th wave reversal or even identify it for sure.   I am seldom able to really come close to nailing a reversal with confidence enough to take a large risk position and even less often can I come up with any conviction on the smaller time frames like the 15 minute chart, even though the 15 minute chart really looks so much like the weekly chart in TDI wave action.    If I could really get a handle on ideal weekly entries which are usually most opportune at the open of the week, then I could maybe see gains higher than 3% per week, because weekly price action on most pairs is at least 100 pips, which means at least 100 pips profit as long the trade position agrees with the true direction that price is headed for the week.     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 01:46:05 pm
Got a short order ready to trigger on Acad at 1.01 with an expected hit at 1.0105. TP on the short set for 1.005 for an even 50 pips profit.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:17:26 pm
Forgot to figure in the previous swing low on Acad so around 1.0115 should be the peak area. No biggie...it'll still drop.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:19:41 pm
Maybe 1.0120 on Acad. Hard to get precise measurements cause all I have is the phone with a slow stochastic for wave counting and projections. Makes it a bit challenging...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:24:32 pm
There we go. 1.0116 top in place on Acad. Not bad for a phone trade I guess. Short the crap out of it.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 03:26:40 pm
That's ok pennies, I was expecting to see a hit on the 1 hour fib extension FE 100 line at or above the ascending candle top trend line at about 1.0125.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:28:25 pm
I knew the wave count was close Qui. Its just hard to tell on my phone at work...lol. This is a TDI wave 4 retrace, getting ready for a nice 5th wave down to fill the Sunday gap around 1.004.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 03:29:55 pm
How'd you pick your TP mark pennies? 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 03:30:56 pm
Never mind my last.    ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:31:15 pm
We had a gap up on Sunday open around 1.004 so I'm aiming above it at 1.005. It'll probably drop more than that though.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:33:26 pm
I suspect we will retest current support around 1.003 actually.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 03:35:02 pm
You must be seeing the gap on alpari 'cause I don't see it on Oanda.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:35:41 pm
I have weekend data turned on with Oanda. The gap is there.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:38:14 pm
I cant do it on my phone chart but if you can find the 71.6 fib retrace on this total bounce since the sell off, that should be really close to the top end on this overall bounce.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 03:43:11 pm
Hmmm......not finding a "show weekend data" in my settings but I'm probably looking for the wrong thing in the wrong area.   

If you meant 78.6 then it's at 1.0127.    If you meant 61.8 then that was 1.0103.    If you meant 71.6 then I need to add that to my fib tool.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:43:21 pm
We should be good to go for the Acad drop now between tonight and tomorrow. Gotta run gang...catch ya later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 03:44:30 pm
71.6 is the one you want Qui. Thats the most consistent TDI wave 4 target almost every time. You have to add the level to the fib tool.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 03:45:52 pm
Don't know how I've missed that but I'll add it and start watching for hit frequency.     ???    Catch you later.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 04:11:03 pm
Might still see another pop on Acad. Difficult to tell for sure. The slow stochastic isn't an exact match. Talk to you later...

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 04:35:12 pm
Stopped for a quick break. Qui, here's another clue that marks TDI wave 4 tops. Watch the 15 minute chart. When you get a red candle after an uptrend like this that breaks below the lows of the previous TWO green candles, that is very likely the final top. In other words, its a bearish engulfing candle that swallows the prior 2 green candles.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 04:47:46 pm
Since I dont have the 71.6 fib right now, I just manually figured it. It comes out close to a 1.0125 target. Is that about right?

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 04:51:23 pm
Wherever the 71.6 fib retrace is on Acad, it should also be close to the FE100 measured across the first move up and down from the lows. If the 2 measurements line up pretty close, then you're on target for the short entry.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 04:51:50 pm
Phone is about dead. Gotta run...

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 05:08:47 pm
Ok, on a charger now. Just pulled up a chart on the computer...no TDI though. But this sucker is likely to drop a heck of a lot further...more like towards .97. Might have to hold this one for a while.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 05:59:23 pm
I decided to go back and have a look at the CAD chart again just to see if it was lining up the way we need it to for a nice drop on UCAD and ACAD. Originally, I had thought UCAD was ready to rock but I kept seeing too much hesitation in price action so I closed my last long the other day around 1.3150.

Now that I look back at the CAD chart itself (weekly) I can see where CAD looks ready to roar topside, which will tank pairs like ACAD and UCAD substantially.

Not sure if that's good news for Kermit but I think it is. :-)

CAD Weekly Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 06:16:46 pm
Just took another short on A/Cad at the 78.6 level, and 1.01227 is my 2nd short.    It doesn't look done to me but we shall see.     Looks like wave 4 down on the 15 minute price action leaving another move up before it tops before reversing if it's going to.    But I usually get it wrong so again...we shall see.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on February 27, 2017, 07:20:20 pm
Yes, it does, thanks. I got lucky last time that the CAD weakened just after my payment, instead of just before like it usually does. In about two and a half weeks, I have to make another one.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 07:29:16 pm
Looks like a J hook formation on Acad 15 minute and 30 minute. If so, it'll roll down hard.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 08:12:55 pm
5 minute Acad now seems to show a hit at 1.0150 coming. I ought to have my butt kicked for not waiting till I was back at my primary charts....grrrrr!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 08:14:43 pm
Maybe not...1 minute chart shows 5 complete waves plus a 1-2 afterwards. We'll see...

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 08:30:15 pm
ACAD 4 Hour Chart

Finally back home with my charts and now I know why it's pushing up hard...this isn't a Wave 4 TDI retrace...it's a final Wave 2 push. Wave 2 almost always makes one final new high before rolling over so we could see 1.0180 to 1.02 before it dies. It could stop short of the high already in place though...that's not unheard of. I actually had this darned chart annotated and totally forgot about it...Doh!  1.0146 is the FE 161.8 extension of this move up so we'll see how it behaves if it gets there. But 1.0180 is the 71.6 fib retrace of this last sharp move down so I'd be looking for a hit there before it dies. That's pretty much the level it's been shooting for during this whole 3 wave series of movements on the weekly chart.

When I drop to the hourly chart, I can count 5 complete TDI waves there so she may not have much more to go. What comes next will be a solid Wave 3 down and that should be a doozy so my TP is definitely going a lot lower. I'm setting it for 0.97 for now and then I'll re-evaluate as price action unfolds.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 08:37:58 pm
I was just going to ask for an updated 4 hour chart pennies.    The daily TDi fast line has just bounced off its wave bottom trend line so I'm not thinking we'll see a turnaround until the 78.6 or 88.6 or even a test of the daily high in the 1.0396 area gets hit so I guess it stockholder for a while till it does reverse.    I just hate having to sort out the next best place to add to my positions.    I do hope your 71.6 fib is the magic bullet!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 08:42:34 pm
ACAD Weekly Chart

As I mentioned in the last post, the entire 3 wave sequence in this long series has been punctuated over and over again by 71.6 hits before retracing. Here's the chart showing how this has played out over and over again. Only once has it moved slightly past that level and made it almost to the 88.6. But the current wave count doesn't really have that much wiggle room. At most, I don't see more than 1.0180 coming before it rolls over hard and maybe not even that.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 08:46:08 pm
One thing that is different about this move so far. In all of the other cases, the trend line for price action didn't break until after the 71.6 level was hit. In this case, price has already broken below the price action trend line, so it may not make a new high at all. This last move may be it.

Time will tell...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 08:48:44 pm
I'm able to see even more hits at the 71.6 fib on the same weekly chart at other wave reversals so I do see your reason for confidence in it.   And with 1.018 being at the 71.6 on the 4 hour chart, I may just go ahead and add there.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 08:51:44 pm
Many thanks for the enlightenment regarding the 71.6 fib!    :)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 08:52:36 pm
ACAD 15 Minute Chart

This is what I mentioned earlier Qui. When the 15 minute chart starts producing reversal candles that totally engulf at least 2 of the previous trend candles, the run is either completely over or it only has one more brief pop to make and then it's over.

That one single bear candle broke below 4 green candle lows.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 08:57:06 pm
That too is highly enlightening pennies.    Do these two gems hold true for all pairs most of the time?   And do you find it to be true on all time frames?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 08:57:44 pm
Yep pretty much all the time Qui.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 09:15:37 pm
Honestly Qui, I think we need to go ahead and TP at 1.005 and leave this one alone for now. The 3 wave progressions had me puzzled for a minute until I realized that a series of 3 followed by another series of 3 can only be a triangle pattern in Elliott Wave theory. So I'm going to go ahead and hazard a guess that this is what we have here for now.


EDIT: The time between peaks seems to be about 2 days, maybe a bit less so I'm thinking by no later than Wednesday we should have our TP at 1.005.
Hourly ACAD chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 09:20:40 pm
Sounds like a plan pennies.   I'm not comfortable holding it in hopes of .97 anyway.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 09:27:49 pm
Qui, I changed your notification status but I'm not sure how it will work here. Let me know if it made any difference. If not, I'll do some more digging.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 09:31:51 pm
Not sure if it worked or not......I clicked on the reply button and got the message that a new post was made and do I want to continue to reply.   I clicked no and went back to see your post here.     

I was going to say that it would be nice if I could change each fib level to a different color so I could spot which level the price was at based on the color and not the small text.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 09:34:06 pm
You can. Just double click on the fib tool once you have it laid on the chart and then right click. Go to Fibo Properties and set the color you want under the Common tab and Fib Levels tab. You can then lay another fib tool out and color it differently.

I normally use Red for weekly, blue for daily, white for 4 hour, etc. That way, the darker colors automatically let me know that the fib is relevant on a higher time frame.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on February 27, 2017, 09:37:47 pm
LIKE that Pennies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 09:38:31 pm
I'd sure like to see a couple of nice long green 4 hour candles on Eur/Nzd when I wake up tomorrow morning.   Price is now just at the 61.8 fib, even with prior highs and looking over extended on the 1 hour chart to me based on TDI divergence and it looks like it's in its 5th wave up on the 1 hour TDI wave count; or at least my wave count.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 09:39:45 pm
Or you could just download an MT4 indicator to do all that for you automatically. Here's the link. Just drag it onto your chart and every time you draw a fib, it will cycle the colors for you. Just put it in your indicators folder, close and open MT4 and there it is.  ;D

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=258619
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 09:41:46 pm
What I want it to do is make each fib level line a different color, i.e. 38.2 red, 50 green, 61.8 orange, 71.6 gold, 88.6 tan.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 09:43:29 pm
I'd sure like to see a couple of nice long green 4 hour candles on Eur/Nzd when I wake up tomorrow morning.   Price is now just at the 61.8 fib, even with prior highs and looking over extended on the 1 hour chart to me based on TDI divergence and it looks like it's in its 5th wave up on the 1 hour TDI wave count; or at least my wave count.

You never know Qui. It's still working it's way up in the current hourly TDI uptrend channel. You'd be surprised how much topside is available in the last few squiggles of the 5th wave.

Hourly chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 09:47:55 pm
What I want it to do is make each fib level line a different color, i.e. 38.2 red, 50 green, 61.8 orange, 71.6 gold, 88.6 tan.   

Ahh...I gotcha. I don't know about that.  I never have tried before. Look through this page and see if any of these help. Seems likes there's 2 or 3 mentioned here...

https://www.forex-tsd.com/forum/debates-discussions/15788-fibonacci-colours
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 10:03:33 pm
I don't see any way to do it, but it would be nice.    I'll check that out and do some digging.   

I don't know with E/N...so I'm out with 45 pips gains.   Still under on my earlier entry.    I'll look to reenter later I suppose.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 10:09:30 pm
My Trading Times Rules List

I'm as guilty of this as anybody so I'm setting new hard, fast rules for myself on when to take trades.

1. The absolute BEST time to trade is between 2 AM Central to 9 AM Central. Very few exceptions to this except maybe during Fed rate announcements which typically occur at 1 PM Central. London typically provides the best volume of the day.

Other than those rare exceptions, these are my rules for myself...

1. No trading on Sundays
2. No trading during the Asian session at night (Again, a handful of exceptions but rare)
3. No trading during late afternoon hours, especially right around the time the US market closes at 3 PM Central
4. No trading Friday unless it's very early morning London session. Typically, be in and out by no later than 9 AM. Definitely no late day trades.

I can't tell you how many times I've violated those rules only to wind up waiting for the London open to get a resolution to the trade. 90% or more of the time, had I waited until 2 AM Central to start looking for trades, my drawdown would be minimal and the volume would be there to facilitate the trade entry and targets with much less waiting time.

Now, if I can just make myself follow those rules...LOL!

Of course, these rules for taking trades on the long time frames like the weekly really aren't pertinent. Those can be taken any time since the risk is much smaller and the time frame is so large so all of the noise is taken out of the chart.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 10:15:39 pm
That was worth copying and saving.   I may even print it out and hang it on the wall.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 27, 2017, 10:16:20 pm
anyone else see inverted head and shoulders breakout on aud/cad daily chart? brought it up a couple days ago
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 10:26:10 pm
Hey ForexTrader. I remember you mentioned that. I see the pattern you referenced but I'm not sure it applies here. But I definitely can't rule it out either. I've learned over the years that standard IHS and H&S shoulders patterns as they are laid out in the tech analysis manuals are only right about half the time.

So what I did was I researched the ones that played out and matched them to specific TDI patterns. So what I normally look for in an IHS pattern is a series of 3 higher lows near the bottom that are congruent with each of the pattern manifestations in the IHS or H&S.

In the case of an IHS, the left shoulder makes the lowest peak on the TDI. The head makes a slightly higher TDI low and then finally the right shoulder makes an even higher low. For H&S patterns, just reverse that...left shoulder makes the highest peak, the head makes a lower peak and the right shoulder makes a 3rd lower peak.

AUD/NZD is a perfect example of one that's playing out right now actually. Here's the chart I've had for quite some time along with the TDI pattern to go along with it that I've found confirms the pattern with a pretty high accuracy rating.

When I look at the ACAD chart, the TDI setup isn't the same. It's similar but the layout doesn't look correct. I do see more potential upside for ACAD later but for now, it's probably going to be trapped inside a contracting triangle pattern.

Here's the AUD/NZD chart I mentioned with the IHS price action pattern and the TDI confirmation pattern to go with it...I use this quite often to help confirm Wave 4 TDI patterns...

EDIT: I forgot to mention that one of the key components on those TDI peaks for either IHS or H&S is that they can be tied together with a single trend line and that the peaks are fairly close together. If the peaks are spread far apart or you have trouble connecting all 3 points with a single trend line, then it probably isn't an IHS or H&S pattern.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 27, 2017, 10:29:43 pm
Ok gang, I've been awake for nearly 24 hours now and I'm wiped out. I'll be back early in the morning and we'll see how things progress. Everybody have a good one!   ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 10:30:37 pm
Interesting......I too was struggling with that semi IHS pattern as I believed it to be one until three days ago with that low hanging candle that made the IHS tougher to verify.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 27, 2017, 10:31:45 pm
I'm done too pennies.    Nite all.....
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on February 28, 2017, 05:22:59 am
Hey ForexTrader. I remember you mentioned that. I see the pattern you referenced but I'm not sure it applies here. But I definitely can't rule it out either. I've learned over the years that standard IHS and H&S shoulders patterns as they are laid out in the tech analysis manuals are only right about half the time.

So what I did was I researched the ones that played out and matched them to specific TDI patterns. So what I normally look for in an IHS pattern is a series of 3 higher lows near the bottom that are congruent with each of the pattern manifestations in the IHS or H&S.

In the case of an IHS, the left shoulder makes the lowest peak on the TDI. The head makes a slightly higher TDI low and then finally the right shoulder makes an even higher low. For H&S patterns, just reverse that...left shoulder makes the highest peak, the head makes a lower peak and the right shoulder makes a 3rd lower peak.

AUD/NZD is a perfect example of one that's playing out right now actually. Here's the chart I've had for quite some time along with the TDI pattern to go along with it that I've found confirms the pattern with a pretty high accuracy rating.

When I look at the ACAD chart, the TDI setup isn't the same. It's similar but the layout doesn't look correct. I do see more potential upside for ACAD later but for now, it's probably going to be trapped inside a contracting triangle pattern.

Here's the AUD/NZD chart I mentioned with the IHS price action pattern and the TDI confirmation pattern to go with it...I use this quite often to help confirm Wave 4 TDI patterns...

EDIT: I forgot to mention that one of the key components on those TDI peaks for either IHS or H&S is that they can be tied together with a single trend line and that the peaks are fairly close together. If the peaks are spread far apart or you have trouble connecting all 3 points with a single trend line, then it probably isn't an IHS or H&S pattern.

oh ok pennies. thanks for the thorough analysis
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 06:01:39 am
I've got other trades potentially setting up in the next day or so and I really don't want to wait on ACAD to play out in a triangle so I'm just gonna TP at 1.0099 when it hits in a little bit and take my 1 pip of profit and remind myself not to blindly take phone trades again...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 07:07:27 am
At this point I'm feeling good about closing out my most recent E/N trade and I don't see any reason to hop into it again for now.

I do wish I'd closed out my A/C trade when I checked it at 4 am.     I think it's headed for another high before it rolls over; how many new highs is the question.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 07:10:03 am
I don't know Qui. It might be but the AU hourly chart looks ready to drop and the CAD currency looks ready to rise, which would drop ACAD if the two are combined. I might still hold off for my 1.005 TP target after all.

AU Hourly Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 07:11:22 am
Have you noticed the TDI to price action divergence on the daily chart?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 07:13:14 am
Yep. BTW, looks like UCAD is also due for a sell off here shortly, probably with the news release in a bit here.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 07:15:53 am
Well I'm holding till I see gains on both positions, and 1.0055 at the daily 21MA is my target.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 07:46:23 am
ACAD is hitting the FE 161.8 in the C wave progression. That should wrap her up. Dippy doo time.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 07:47:22 am
UCAD wrapping up a 5th wave Elliott Wave progression in a C wave as well. It should also fall back.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 08:08:55 am
Worse case scenario in all this Qui is that if I'm wrong about the triangle and everything else, ACAD will head to 1.0180 or so and then fall apart at the larger 71.6 fib. So either way, it's only a matter of time.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 09:03:39 am
Here's yet another possibility on ACAD. Correction patterns are notoriously hard to pin down, as you can probably tell by now...LOL! Either way, the longer term pattern on ACAD weekly is deadly bearish so none of this small back and forth stuff really matters.

ACAD 4 Hour Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 09:14:42 am
I'm just gonna hold the ACAD short for quite a while. That rascal is gonna tank big time and I want it, even if I have to hold it for a while. Minimum downside target is 0.97 but it look like it'll wind up down around 0.93.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 09:17:26 am
Headed out for the day gang. Everybody have a good one.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 09:56:26 am
Those correction patters are a tough nut to crack as they evolve from wedgees to channels then back to a larger wedge etc.   But we are over the 61.8 fib on the large wave down that began Nov 10 last year and ended the first week in January.    So I'm ok even if price moves above the 88.6 fib, but it hurts my chances of 3% weekly gains when I'm not right from the initial trade.     I'll probably add at the 71.6 and see if things turn around from there but I'm nowhere near my 3% for the week so far.    Typical.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 09:59:27 am
Speak of the devil.....price just moved up through the 71.6.    I've added here, though I'll likely find myself adding again at the next fib or thereabouts.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 10:01:54 am
This is perfect Qui. This is exactly what we need. Dont add positions so close together though. One or two small positions is all you need.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 10:02:54 am
Crazy how that 71.6 seems to have killed upward momentum, at least for this few minutes.    Like a magnet.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 10:04:01 am
The weekly chart shows this as a TDI wave 4 retrace. The 71.6 draws it in hard.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 10:14:22 am
It's hard to imagine it really reversing here though looking at the weekly chart.   It has hit the top of the minor wedge pattern, but there is another 100 pips up to the larger wedge pattern and 78.6, with the 88.6 fib another 80 pips above that on the weekly.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 10:16:37 am
Patience. Once the 71.6 has been reached, the next step is for the market catalyst to come along, either for Cad or for Aussie. And Aussie has a GDP news release hitting tonight.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 10:19:13 am
I guess I don't have a handle on the weekly TDI wave count.   This most recent wave down and up is what's throwing me off.    The end of the last wave up should have been end of 5th wave in my mind.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 10:19:26 am
I suspect Aussie will be the ticket for the catalyst since it also shows a TDI wave 4 retrace with basically a triple top on price action in place.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 10:27:56 am
It's only Tuesday and we've already had a 100 plus pip move up from it's open on this weekly Acad candle.     I'm trying to be on the right side of these 100 pip weekly candle moves.    Sheesh. ::)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 10:29:59 am
Alas my young Padwan, the ways of the Force still elude you...lol! Patience, patience I say is the Jedi way.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 10:31:58 am
 :o    lol.....
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 10:33:49 am
Set your TP for .93 on Acad shorts and go on vacation Qui.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 10:42:33 am
It may be headed for .93 but it's not going to get there in the next couple or even few weeks probably and I need to make 3% per week minimum average and can't do that if I'm the wrong side of the trade on the weekly and monthly chart and right now I'm not convinced that Acad is ready to reverse on the weekly chart much less the monthly despite the 71.6 hit on both time frames.    I'm just going to hold and add later as I always do.

What this board needs is bigger and better smileys.    :P
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 10:48:48 am
Lol! You're trying too hard to rope yourself in to weekly goals Qui. Just take what the market offers. Play a combination of long term charts and short term day-trading charts. Set up an Oanda sub account and split the money. That way you get the best of both worlds. More often than not, if you try too hard for weekly goals, you're gonna get burned because you wind up taking too much risk trying to make it happen.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 10:50:16 am
I am considering a sub or second account.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 01:09:18 pm
Stick a fork in Acad, its done. I'd like to request 500 pips straight down in the next 30 minutes please. 😄

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 01:13:19 pm
Ucad is retesting a weekly bearish trend line from the underside and daily AU is showing a wave 4 TDI peak. All we need is one of the two to tank. It would be awesome to see both tank together.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on February 28, 2017, 02:56:02 pm
Better stick a knife in it and make sure it's done pennies.......seems like it's never done when I think it is.      But in case it really snow, just give me a couple days of pullback to the daily 21MA so I can unload my mast couple positions for decent gains and I'll be happy.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 02:59:20 pm
It'll get there. I remember when UJ did this. It went about 60 pips or so past the 71.6 and then started dying. Weekly charts don't give up easily but they all die sooner or later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on February 28, 2017, 09:20:32 pm
ACAD 4 Hour Chart

If I had bothered to take one additional measurement, I would have seen this top target the whole time. During an ABC progression that falls into a common EW zig zag pattern like this, the C wave is almost always at the 127.2 fib extension based on the length of Wave A. And that just happens to correspond to the 78.6 fib...not far above the 71.6 I always watch for.

So now we have our top and our TP target. TP set for the conservative FE 61.8...actually, my TP is just above there at 0.98.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 01, 2017, 06:44:14 am
CAD rate announcement this morning at 9 AM central. Remember I mentioned that pairs like Acad need a catalyst once a TDI wave 4 is complete. If they hike rates or even sound hawkish in their statement, CAD will soar and pairs like Acad and Ucad will tank.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 01, 2017, 08:28:30 am
Gonna close Aud/Nzd long if it hits 1.0775. There are some signs that it may push a bit above the neckline and then go through a deep retrace as opposed to a traditional IHS pattern. Plenty of time to get back in later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 01, 2017, 08:56:40 am
There is still room for a pop on Acad so I'm not gonna hold my breath on Cad news. It'll do whatever its gonna do.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 01, 2017, 09:06:49 am
I hate being right...lol! There's the Acad pop. Now we have to wait and see if its a pop and drop setup. Check back later...

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 01, 2017, 09:47:06 am
Hey pennies......I added the 1.272 FE to my tool and noticed that if the larger daily move up is also an ABC patter which it looks like to me, then we get to look forward to 1.04172 jut above the daily high set in november 2016. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 01, 2017, 09:52:07 am
No I dont see that Qui. But I can tell you this. When Ucad hits 1.3420, Acad will be topped out wherever it is at the same time. Thats the TDI wave 4 retrace target for Ucad. So Acad can stall out in this area until that happens or it can move up a bit more. Since Acad had already hit its technical wave 4 retrace target, I'm betting it more or less stalls in this general area until Ucad is finished.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 01, 2017, 10:02:01 am
Well this may be a 3rd wave up vice a C wave so I see it going higher but I'm hoping you are right which you prolly are.   ;)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 01, 2017, 10:16:52 am
I bailed on my A/N initial entry with a quarter dollar hit to my account and decided to close out my remaining single E/N long too with half a dollar loss so I can focus all my attention on Acad.    Plus I can't afford to be hundreds of pips wrong on more than one pair at a time and I'm under by 135 pips on Acad as it is.   At this rate, I may not get even a 1% gain to my account this week.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 01, 2017, 01:01:17 pm
ACAD Daily Chart

Thought I would share a heads up about TDI wave counting. The way price action gets to the target is really irrelevant. Once you've identified the key wave count, you simply plan on taking your first trade at the 71.6 fib retrace of whatever Wave 3 was. Keep it small so that you're not sweating...LOL! Then just wait. Sometimes price reverses at the 71.6. Sometimes it never even gets there and you miss your entry altogether. Sometimes it goes just a bit beyond the 71.6 to either the 78.6 or the 88.6. None of that matters, not even the pattern of the price action, whether it be a linear shot or a choppy back and forth movement.

The point is that the TDI wave counting method removes all the headaches from trying to figure out if its an ABC zig zag, a diagonal, or some other such crazy correction. All you have to know is the most favorable target, which is always the 71.6 fib. After that gets hit, you just kick back and wait. With the weekly charts, there's usually a bit of overplay involved that can lead to situations like we have now with the 78.6 getting hit and possibly even the 88.6 coming up...still doesn't matter. It's going to die a miserable death because the TDI wave count says so.   ;D

Food for thought...
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 01, 2017, 06:32:42 pm
inverted head and shoulder pattern on oil weekly chart.  if it plays out it should impact currencies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 01, 2017, 08:58:08 pm
That could be the catalyst we're looking for Forex Trader. If oil soars, CAD will soar with it and tank pairs like ACAD and UCAD. They're both testing right near key technical resistance levels so it would make sense for oil to break out topside soon.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 01, 2017, 09:00:54 pm
ACAD and GU Pattern Comparison with TDI Wave Count

I just wanted to give you guys a taste of what's coming down the pipes. Remember when GU was being really stubborn about dying? The sideways pattern back and forth and it was driving us nuts? But the TDI wave count already told us Wave 3 had come along and it needed a response with another big sell off.

Well, now compare the 4 hour GU chart with what we're seeing on the ACAD monthly chart. Now you know why I'm so bearish on this pair at these levels. When that sucker tanks this next time, it's going to be ferocious and ultimately will target the larger FE 100 to the downside around 0.87 so I'd be looking to TP around 0.88.

GU 4 hour chart first followed by ACAD monthly chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 12:26:03 am
inverted head and shoulder pattern on oil weekly chart.  if it plays out it should impact currencies

Oil Weekly Chart

This is the chart Forex Trader mentioned. Oil is gonna soar back to near $100 a barrel and the CAD currency is going to soar with it. So pairs like ACAD and UCAD are gonna tank big time. That lines up with what I saw in the CAD stand-alone chart as well.

Kiss ACAD and UCAD goodbye as they get ready to head deep doo-doo south.  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 02, 2017, 04:59:01 am
I hope everyone's trading is going well. I just closed my last position for the week--so many pairs I've been waiting on finally broke and I've been running around picking up as many little pieces as I could. I had so many trades going that I lost track my of some.

I'll do a wrap up Friday night.

On oil, I hope you don't need oil to hit $100 a barrel for your trades to work out. There is so much supply sitting on the sidelines waiting for oil to hit $60 a barrel that it will take a war to get it over $70.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 07:03:48 am
I'm not sure what the catalyst will be Kermit. But if the pattern plays out, that's the technical target. At least your Loonies will be worth a butt load...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 07:16:38 am

On oil, I hope you don't need oil to hit $100 a barrel for your trades to work out. There is so much supply sitting on the sidelines waiting for oil to hit $60 a barrel that it will take a war to get it over $70.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Hey Kermit, talking about oil reminded me of the EW target I had on oil a bit over a year ago when I was looking at a near term bottom in oil prices. I think you were more than ready for it to pop at the time if I remember...LOL!

Here's the post with the oil chart still there. But even then, I had an EW projection of $80 or so a barrel so the IHS pattern on the chart that Forex Trader noticed could very well be valid, for whatever reason.

As far as war goes, that is also one of the requirements during a depression, which is ultimately what we're headed for in this Elliott Wave Grand Supercycle that is playing out on the charts. It takes decades to form but when it happens, as always, a war is the only thing that pulls the country back out of the depression. But I don't hold my breath waiting for it. I just play the chart that's handed to me and move on.  :D

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=119953726&txt2find=oil
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 07:32:27 am
AU Daily Chart

If the TDI wave count that I've got it correct, it's headed deep south gang.

Targets posted...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 02, 2017, 07:34:32 am
Expensive oil is definitely good for Canada. And I'm pleased that under Trump, it will go to the US instead of China. (I'm astonished by how many people want it loaded on boats and sent half way around the world to that notorious polluter instead of just sent in a pipe down the road to a country with one of the best safety and environmental records in the world.)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 07:35:28 am
UCAD Daily Chart

So far, we came back to just shy of the required 71.6 fib to complete the Wave 4 TDI. If UCAD has topped along with AU, then ACAD is really gonna accelerate downside with both dropping at the same time. Perfect storm...

Damn, I love Technical Analysis...ROFL!

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 07:38:33 am
Expensive oil is definitely good for Canada. And I'm pleased that under Trump, it will go to the US instead of China. (I'm astonished by how many people want it loaded on boats and sent half way around the world to that notorious polluter instead of just sent in a pipe down the road to a country with one of the best safety and environmental records in the world.)

I know. It's totally crazy. I never have understood why we keep buying butt loads of oil from overseas when we have more than enough here to support the US for a very long time. Plus, as you said, we want to export it instead of just keeping it here.

The only real reason we've "stayed in bed" with Saudi Arabia is because of the tremendous stock holdings they have in our markets. They own over 1/3 of the total market here last I heard. If we stop buying oil and they sell off, it would plunge the market into chaos so our ridiculous import schedule from them continues.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 07:42:06 am
ACAD Daily Chart

Targets outlined...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 07:50:12 am
CAD Stand-Alone Currency

And finally we have CAD hitting the trendline as ACAD made it's ridiculous final 5th wave run up on the charts late yesterday.

Pop time...Kermit is going to be very wealthy.  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 08:02:32 am
Just found this...good for a CAD pop also. Notice how the news fits the technical patterns? That's why I said once the TDI wave 4 completes, it always waits on a catalyst before moving. They use the news to complete the patterns. I see this over and over again.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-02/canada-s-economy-grows-2-6-as-oil-exporter-emerges-from-slump
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 08:04:28 am
This isn't good although it seems to be. But from an Elliott Wave perspective, news like this often marks stock market tops.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-02/u-s-initial-jobless-claims-drop-to-lowest-in-almost-44-years
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 08:09:22 am
UJ Daily Chart

Japanese stock market is about to get hit with a load of crap as the Yen strengthens considerably, dropping UJ hard.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 08:12:08 am
Gotta head out for the better part of the day gang. Things are about to get very exciting for the currency market. The trades are posted so go out and get dem pips...LOL!

Everybody have a good one...
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 08:15:57 am
NU Weekly Chart

Almost forgot this one...nothing has changed. Still expecting my TP at 0.68 to get hit although it may stop over a bit around 0.70 first.

Later...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 02, 2017, 09:20:51 am
Very interesting correlations pennies.     I closed out a couple most recent Acad shorts this morning so now I'm at the 2% mark now for the week which is better than 1% but not expecting to make the 3%.   I still have a couple low risk Acad shorts going which I'll add one position to if we see any adequate bounce towards 1.025 highs.     Otherwise I'll let the two others run.     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 02:17:33 pm
Taking an initial short on UCAD here at 1.33926 with tentative TP set for 1.3010. I still expect UCAD to hit the 71.6 target around 1.3420 but this is close enough. It's going to start producing some high volume downside candles before much longer and I don't want to wait for an exact entry.

Might have to adjust TP level just a bit depending on the final high but that should be very close.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 02, 2017, 04:03:07 pm
Week 9 Wrap up:

Start: $110.02
Goal: $114.45
Attained: $126.82

This was a good week. A number of pairs Iíve been waiting on for weeks finally broke and I was scooping up pips as fast as I could. I didnít count the number of plays, but it was a lot.

A couple things I can be proud of:

(1) After shorting (against penniesí advice) EURNZD and having it go down a bit (yea!) and then turn around and go the other way (boo!), I sucked it up and took a large loss and then went long. Both trades were indicated by the tunnel, which is good, and I went against type to take the loss instead of determining to ride it out and it paid off bigly. Which is great. Chart attached to show the moves.

(2) Instead of trying to squeeze every penny I could out of every trade (ďdonít leave money on the tableĒ is a pink sheet philosophy that courts disaster in FOREX), I picked an entry and exited when I had a nice profit. I hit my goal for that trade and I protected my gains. This morning, I decided Iíd made enough. Rather than risk giving any back, I closed my positions, locked in a great week, and will start looking to next week for the next set of plays.

What I did poorly: I had a lot of trades going and I lost track of some long orders for EURAUD. I set them and totally forgot about them and then they triggered. I made a nice gain, but sloppy order management.

Gain for the week: 15%.

Iíll take a look at the charts again later and post next weekís play before Sundayís open.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 02, 2017, 04:04:59 pm
Forgot the chart.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 04:06:33 pm
You keep wracking up percentages like that Kermit and I'm gonna have to hit you up for one of those "good buddy, ole pal of mine" no interest loans to help me out...lol! Great job as usual Kermit. Well done!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 02, 2017, 04:16:04 pm
Kermit.........your 15% gain makes my 2% gain seem like a loss.   lol   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 02, 2017, 05:04:10 pm
Thanks quant. I've done well. 8 of the last 9 weeks have been green, a majority of them for more than my goal 5%. But I'm 2 months into a 4 year project and there are a lot of dangers along the way.

It's all about consistency. If you can get 2% a week indefinitely, that's better then you'll get from any other investing strategy. With your larger account, you're making far more than me in real terms. I've always had an easy time picking more winners than losers, but my money management sucks and I lose big while winning small.  So part of the reason I'm starting with such a small account is to try to drill it into my DNA that you play the charts, you count the pips. The dollars are irrelevant, you play the same with a big account as with a small one. 

I haven't proved anything yet.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 02, 2017, 05:07:07 pm
Pennies, if I do amount to something, it will be in no small part due to your help. It also won't be for a while. So, jinx and knock on wood and all that, but, sure. A Lannister always pays his debts.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 02, 2017, 05:08:08 pm
Lol! I dont want to borrow much...just a million or so will do fine. 😀

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 02, 2017, 05:23:15 pm
Expensive oil is definitely good for Canada. And I'm pleased that under Trump, it will go to the US instead of China. (I'm astonished by how many people want it loaded on boats and sent half way around the world to that notorious polluter instead of just sent in a pipe down the road to a country with one of the best safety and environmental records in the world.)

Just curious, what part of Canada are you from?  My wife was born and raised in Winnipeg.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 02, 2017, 05:29:32 pm
Potential head and shoulders pattern forming on dollar index daily chart.  keep an eye out.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 02, 2017, 05:37:41 pm
Hi Forex. I'm actually from Ohio, but I live in Toronto. My wife is Canadian, grew up down the road in London. We met in NYC and moved here a few years ago to raise our daughter and also to be near my mother-in-law because she's getting up there and needs family nearby.

Edit: I should note that's why around the 15th of every month I complain about the exchange rate--I went to law school at Fordham in the early 2000's and now I'm paying off US student loans with Canadian money. I don't even use the law degree any more--I practiced for a few years and then went back into editing.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 02, 2017, 06:19:05 pm
I don't know how much % risk you are taking with your trades, or how many different pairs you are trading at any given time but I see some days on all of these pairs go a couple/few hundred or more pips in a single day and that makes me too nervous to take on huge risk or trade too many positions.     I'm still working on my method of taking an initial entry and then doubling down as I never know for sure how many pips the trade is going to go against me before I could crash my account by doubling down too close together, but so far the methodhas worked for me trade wise 100% since I began trading that way a year ago or so.    Since I don't trust my own TDI wave counting then I try to take my initial trade position after an extended move then double down with each new hit on a price action trend line hit but I'm definitely looking for some distance of price from the 21 MA on the 4 hour and daily chart before I take a chance on doubling down or even making the initial trade.    My biggest problem really though is not holding the trade long enough.    Pennies has a much better handle on holding than I and so do you apparently.    This morning I bailed on one of my Acad positions after 4o pips when I could have gotten a full 90 out of it.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 02, 2017, 06:48:13 pm
Hi Forex. I'm actually from Ohio, but I live in Toronto. My wife is Canadian, grew up down the road in London. We met in NYC and moved here a few years ago to raise our daughter and also to be near my mother-in-law because she's getting up there and needs family nearby.

Edit: I should note that's why around the 15th of every month I complain about the exchange rate--I went to law school at Fordham in the early 2000's and now I'm paying off US student loans with Canadian money. I don't even use the law degree any more--I practiced for a few years and then went back into editing.

Ah, I see.  My wife had the opposite experience.  She paid off all of her Canadian debt pretty quickly with the strong US Dollar.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 03, 2017, 06:21:10 am
Mornin' everyone. Quant, I try to take positions that require me to get 100 pips to meet my weekly goal. So if I want to hit $5.00, I need .05 per pip. That's fairly high--about twice what's recommended. But I work at a desk so I can keep an eye on it most of the time and try to take only high percentage positions.

The weak point of my trading is refusal to take small losses--which is how I end up taking large losses. Going in too heavy hasn't been a problem, but not closing when the trade goes bad has. That's why I consider my best move this week to be taking the loss on EN when it broke across the tunnel--my tendency is to wait to see what happens, which sometimes works, but sometimes makes it much much worse.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 06:48:41 am
Morning gang. Well, UCAD finally hit the 71.6 retrace. Now we wait to see if that was it or if it will eek out a bit more before turning down. Again, the TDI wave 4 completion requires a catalyst so we have to just settle in and see what it brings us next. There's not a whole lot on the news docket so it may just hover until next week. That's the nice thing about daily and weekly charts though...you already know they're going to take a while to play out so you relax and don't worry about which trigger the market will use...you just know it will.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 07:13:07 am
EUR/NZD Weekly Chart

If EZ maintains this bullish candle outside of the wedge and the TDI shows a firm breakout above it's wedge at the same time by the close this week, then the breakout is confirmed. The first primary target is actually the 61.8 fib retrace followed by the FE 61.8. So a very easy target to aim for is 1.7252. However, I need to emphasize that BOTH the TDI and the price need to break together. Otherwise, we wait a bit longer. But right now it's actually looking really good.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 08:12:31 am
Closed out my AUD/NZD long trade at 1.0775. Been holding that turd for far too long because I got in WAY too early. Glad to be rid of it finally. I want to focus more on EUR/NZD because the pattern is so much better. Still waiting for the weekly close to confirm a bullish setup on EUR/NZD before I re-enter that one again.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 03, 2017, 08:45:18 am
Morning pennies and all.    Both E/Nzd and A/Nzd finally moved up and I could have made my 3% weekly gain on E/N alone had I held but doubts and boredom set in prompting me to sell the day before it popped.    And I wanted to focus on Acad.     Not likely to get my 3% this week, but the day isn't over and maybe I can eek out the 3% average in the weeks to come.   Definately not going to see kermits' 15%!   :'(

 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 08:46:56 am
EZ is setting up for a massive topside move Qui. If the weekly close confirms my TA setup, I'll look to take a long Sunday or Monday.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 03, 2017, 08:51:51 am
That would mean taking a light starter position in event price returns to test the lows or at least some degree of pullback but that's alright....I'd likely join you.   

Also, what are the odds of Acad making a brief new daily high as it did back in november on the 10th when it moved up 100 odd pips in a couple hours before the bearish weekly reversal actually set in?     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 03, 2017, 08:55:30 am
And can you be certain that Acad isn't going to close near its high of week and start next week with another bullish weekly move up followed by another etc until the monthly highs are retested or even monthly resistance broken?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 08:57:18 am
Very doubtful on Acad. I still see a perfect storm setting up on this stuff especially with AU going bearish and Ucad setting up a 4th wave TDI finish. You may not see much of a bounce at all on Acad. Thats why with TDI wave 4 setups, you have to just take the trade and hold it at the 71.6.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 03, 2017, 04:44:25 pm
HI Pennies. I'm looking for my next play and I mostly see pullbacks as the next move for most of the pairs I watch, and I don't want to go again the trend, so I took a look at AC and have a question. Attached are two charts--hourly and daily.

Hourly chart: TDI is just turning down and the fibonacci suggests the next move is down. OK, fits with what you're saying.
Daily chart: The green and red lines on the TDI are breaking the plane of the yellow line. Last 2 times that happened, it dropped about 600 pips. Again, fits with what you're saying.

BUT...I had to pull way out on the daily for this. Not that I know what I'm talking about, but shouldn't ACAD hit the top of this channel one more time at around 1.05 before dropping?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 05:25:53 pm
Hey Kermit. I'll have to wait till I get home late tonight to post the chart but you have to zoom back out even further on the daily chart to see the bigger picture. The weekly is actually more clear.  Basically what we have is a large sideways weekly channel comprised of a series of 3 wave corrections. The channel you have drawn in only shows the last of 3 waves back to the top. Its actually set up for another large 3rd leg down that will complete Wave D in the series. When you see sets of 3 waves in a sideways consolidation channel, triangle or a diagonal, those sets of 3 form a total of 5 sets or 15 total waves. This last high only comes in at number 11 in the series. One more down in the sideways channel will give us 12 follwed by a potential 3 more back up for a total of 15. Look at the weekly chart and go in with a set of horizontal trendlines and you'll be able to see it more easily.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 10:31:45 pm
HI Pennies. I'm looking for my next play and I mostly see pullbacks as the next move for most of the pairs I watch, and I don't want to go again the trend, so I took a look at AC and have a question. Attached are two charts--hourly and daily.

Hourly chart: TDI is just turning down and the fibonacci suggests the next move is down. OK, fits with what you're saying.
Daily chart: The green and red lines on the TDI are breaking the plane of the yellow line. Last 2 times that happened, it dropped about 600 pips. Again, fits with what you're saying.

BUT...I had to pull way out on the daily for this. Not that I know what I'm talking about, but shouldn't ACAD hit the top of this channel one more time at around 1.05 before dropping?

Here you go Kermit. Finally made it home. This is the chart I posted the other day with the same annotations. ACAD Weekly Chart showing the 1-2-3 corrective series. The only thing I can't totally rule out is a final push up to the current 88.6 fib level around 1.0315 but even that looks kind of unlikely at this point. There are multiple fib completions at the last high on ACAD, even from a time based fibonacci perspective.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 10:38:14 pm
And here's the ACAD hourly with the larger ABC correction overall in this total leg up. It's only 3 waves as well, which is definitely only a corrective move before a much larger sell off coming. Notice the 5th wave overthrow and rapid, hard reversal back into the channel.

The next move down will break the channel hard to the downside and drop like a rock.

Note: Ignore the numbers on the TDI...those are from a larger time frame. I just zoomed in on the hourly to show you the Elliott Wave count and channel action.



Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 10:40:48 pm
And finally here's the daily ACAD chart with the TP targets readjusted slightly for the last new high.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 10:46:56 pm
EUR/NZD Weekly Chart Recap

So far, it's a no-go on the EUR/NZD long position. The price broke out of the wedge but the TDI has yet to do so. That means we wait. Maybe we get another bull candle that will finally push the TDI up but we could get a retrace first before that happens. Sometimes though, these long time frames don't update the TDI until the Sunday open...basically, we need one tick to complete on the new weekly candle before the TDI updates so it's possible the Sunday open will confirm a long position as soon as the chart ticks start showing up.

But we have to have both so until we do, I'm not re-entering long. The TDI setup will quite often save you from entering bad trades due to head fakes and I've learned to respect it.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 10:48:53 pm
UJ Daily Chart

No change in my earlier prediction. The hidden bearish divergence shows that UJ is about to plunge hard. Annotations are untouched from last time.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 10:53:21 pm
UCAD Daily Chart

Still looks good for a nice drop. TP target readjusted slightly for slight new high. I'll be out around 1.3050 but I strongly suspect we see a move down to the FE 100 just below 1.28.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 03, 2017, 10:59:15 pm
AUD/NZD 4 Hour Chart

If anyone is wondering why I said I bailed out on AUD/NZD earlier today, this is why. I saw this pattern setting up and my Elliott Wave studies taught me long ago that expanding diagonals are quite often 5th wave finishing patterns.

So this one may, near term, make a great short opportunity. Notice the slight break above the potential neckline that I mentioned (white line). I suspect that we'll see a pretty deep retrace before it makes another attempt at a breakout. With AU in such a bearish position on the weekly and daily charts, this really isn't surprising.



Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 04, 2017, 05:19:22 am
Thanks, Pennies. This is great stuff, I love having so many ways to check my own work.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 04, 2017, 08:35:56 am
Pennies.......considering you base all your trades on the wave counts of multi-timeframes of all these pairs but can only do so based on the historical feed from our MT4/5 platforms, I'm really curious as to how much the greater historical chart would effect your wave counting if it were to be available in MT4/5.      I came across historical charts on all pairs and the Aud/Cad pair chart dated back to jan 1st 1960.     In 1974 Acad had a high in the 1.50 range.    It shows either annual candles or a lines on annual timeframe chart.    There's a little box for monthly but it doesn't work for me.     Maybe all the pairs that have ever traded are to be found in their drop down menu list.      The site is "fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates".     Since we're basing future price action on historical price action then it seems to me that all the data would count.    Curious what your thoughts would be.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 08:36:09 am
No problem Kermit. I too like having multiple inputs on pairs. It really helps me to have as many pairs of eyes on the charts as possible. I can't tell you how many times I've looked at a chart and gotten input from someone else and realized that it either confirmed what I was thinking or took me in a totally different direction because I missed something.

I love having an active group of folks here who like sharing for the good of the whole.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 08:40:53 am
Pennies.......considering you base all your trades on the wave counts of multi-timeframes of all these pairs but can only do so based on the historical feed from our MT4/5 platforms, I'm really curious as to how much the greater historical chart would effect your wave counting if it were to be available in MT4/5.      I came across historical charts on all pairs and the Aud/Cad pair chart dated back to jan 1st 1960.     In 1974 Acad had a high in the 1.50 range.    It shows either annual candles or a lines on annual timeframe chart.    There's a little box for monthly but it doesn't work for me.     Maybe all the pairs that have ever traded are to be found in their drop down menu list.      The site is "fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates".     Since we're basing future price action on historical price action then it seems to me that all the data would count.    Curious what your thoughts would be.

Absolutely Qui. The more data you have, the better of you are. I always start with the highest possible time when I first begin to analyze a pair and the more data I have to analyze, the easier it is to figure out. The web site you mentioned is good...now if only I could get the data into MT4, it would be golden...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 04, 2017, 08:44:11 am
Those were my thoughts.     Seems you could still do a wave count on the yearly candles available on their charts but I can't see any way to apply any RSI or TDI to the charts without having a software tool to do it.    Does any other charting platform offering that deep historical charting on forex with an interactive RSI tool?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 08:46:22 am
Actually, I did a bit of research while we were talking here and I already have the solution Qui. Here's the link with the instructional video on how to download more historical data into MT4 so we can use our current tools.

The internet is awesome...LOL!

https://www.tradingheroes.com/download-mt4-historical-data/
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 04, 2017, 08:47:43 am
You can also print the chart and using a ruler draw in some rough fib level lines and price action trend lines and mark a wave count but not much else unless one of the charting platforms for stocks that offer forex charts and go way back would.    I'll bet it's available and being used out there but not to the average trader; only the software developers themselves.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 04, 2017, 08:49:35 am
Awesome!  You are the main man!.....as the saying goes.. ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 08:51:12 am
Lol! I was a computer tech and a network admin for 25 years so I learned how to do research and find data fast when I needed it.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 04, 2017, 09:06:23 am
Looks like the data is still limited.   Maybe better than what we just had but not good enough.    The comments section under the article tells of the retail broker still being screwed by those owning the software.    So I now have monthly data back to 1993 vice 2004 on Acad.    As long as it's accurate that helps but I sure wish we had data all the way back to the earliest years; first year Acad began trading.    Still '93 is another decade of data.   Can't hurt.    It does take us back to when Acad traded at 1.10
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 09:09:59 am
You only need a certain amount of data to get the bigger picture Qui. For example, I downloaded all of the available ACAD data and it still confirms my longer term picture of ACAD being bearish overall. The whole thing is a very large expanding diagonal chock full of 1-2-3 corrective movements.

Here's the chart fully annotated...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 04, 2017, 09:14:18 am
Looking at the fxtop Acad yearly chart I see 5 waves down and a an ABC bounce to the 38.2 fib level.    I expect you see something different.   Definitely a double bottom on that chart.......called a pinbar or do I have that wrong?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 09:16:08 am
Correct Qui. 5 waves down followed by a corrective 3 waves up...soon to be followed by another 5 waves down all the way to below the 0.93 level. That's why I told you the other day to just take the trade, set your TP for 0.93 and go on vacation...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 04, 2017, 09:19:38 am
I guess the annual chart shouldn't screw up the wave counts on the lower time frames.    So no reason to cry foul too loud.    :)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 04, 2017, 10:08:44 am
AUD/NZD 4 Hour Chart

If anyone is wondering why I said I bailed out on AUD/NZD earlier today, this is why. I saw this pattern setting up and my Elliott Wave studies taught me long ago that expanding diagonals are quite often 5th wave finishing patterns.

So this one may, near term, make a great short opportunity. Notice the slight break above the potential neckline that I mentioned (white line). I suspect that we'll see a pretty deep retrace before it makes another attempt at a breakout. With AU in such a bearish position on the weekly and daily charts, this really isn't surprising.

Aud/nzd weekly
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 04, 2017, 10:11:18 am
UCAD Daily Chart

Still looks good for a nice drop. TP target readjusted slightly for slight new high. I'll be out around 1.3050 but I strongly suspect we see a move down to the FE 100 just below 1.28.

USD/CAD daily
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 10:16:46 am
Exactly Forex Trader. Major supply zone right here. Check out Sam Sieden on YouTube. Its a classic bear setup.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 10:11:39 pm
NU Weekly Chart

This is a primary reason we may get downside reversals on the NZD pairs. We've reached the first TP target at the FE 61.8. It wouldn't be unusual at all for NU to base here and run back up for a bit. That would cause pairs like AUD/NZD and EUR/NZD to retrace back to near the lows.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 10:14:16 pm
EG 4 Hour Chart

Same annotations...unchanged. Still expecting a hit at the top of the contracting triangle.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 10:22:44 pm
GU 4 Hour Chart

Same annotations. Finally hit the FE 100 as expected and bounced. Probably a bit of a dip coming and then a more substantial bounce afterward.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 10:34:52 pm
UJ Weekly Chart

This thing is much more bearish than I had originally anticipated. I was aiming for 107 as a TP but it's going much lower. I've lowered my TP to 102.25 but I strongly suspect we see an area between 91.70 and 94.70 get hit.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 04, 2017, 10:38:45 pm
ACAD Daily Chart

Slight adjustment on the FE tool for targets here but not much. Still expecting an ultimate hit at below 0.93.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 05, 2017, 08:50:24 am
Here ya go gang. Oil needs a catalyst to spike and to cause CAD to rise up sharply and drop pairs like ACAD and UCAD. Here's a possible one right now...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-05/biggest-libyan-oil-ports-shut-some-fields-cut-output-on-clashes
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 05, 2017, 10:55:18 am
Week 10 Post

Start: $126.82
Goal: $131.47


GU: Looks ready for a correction, but I donít want to go long as ultimately I think the downtrend is intact.
EU: Long, but has gone too far too fast, needs to pull balk a bit and take a breather before the next leg upówill wait and watch
NU: Sameótrend is down, but needs some up first.

Iíll wait and watch on USD pairs.

Other stuff:

EN: running hard, would worry about jumping in now. If it pulls back to test the channel breakout, then maybe jump in long. But for now, wait and watch.

EA: Basically the same story.

ACAD: Weíve talked a lot this weekend about ACAD. I think shorting this will be my first play of the week for the reasons covered.

UCAD: There is a clear reversal candle on the daily and dollar weakness, at least in the short term, is in keeping with many of the other pairs so I will be following this as well.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 05, 2017, 04:19:43 pm
Pennies and all appreciate all this updates and charts especially-have more time today -sister in rehab for her legs and sugar-in ga i'm in ala-her daughter is doing all she can -but tied down with her brother autistic child who she can't take out of the county-rehab in another county-her sons aren't worth have-two on drugs and the other one doesn;t care -i put a fire under his butt yesterday lol he went to see her today and put a fire under our brothers butt too-he called her today --he lives close to her
sometimes it take some unorthodox maneuvering to get the jog done -lol i specialize in that --they all know i'm capable
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 05, 2017, 04:28:56 pm
I know exactly what you're going through Jav. My wife's mother is in a nursing home with Stage 5 Alzheimer's. Nobody seems to want to kick in and help except for us even though she has other family pretty close by. Gets really frustrating. Hope things get better for you and your sister.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 05, 2017, 04:30:01 pm
Even with the open today, there's still no confirmation on an EZ long from the TDI so we wait. Either it retraces or we get another bullish candle at the end of this week that finally drives the TDI out of it's pattern. Either way, there's no trade yet.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 05, 2017, 04:43:03 pm
I don't think MT4 has updated just yet on the weekly so the TDI may yet confirm. The reason I say that is because I just noticed that the current price action today is still included in the weekly candle even though technically it's a new week.

Either way, I'll wait till 11 PM my time tonight and see what the roll over does on the TDI update. But if that TDI shows a breakout, I'm going long regardless of how far it's moved in a short period of time.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 05, 2017, 05:29:16 pm
Hi Jav, sorry to hear about your sister. She's lucky she's got somebody who cares and is together enough drag everyone else along. Still, it's hard road for you.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 05, 2017, 06:23:37 pm
Anything above 114 on UJ is going to make a great short opportunity. Go in small and just hold it. Set TP for 102.50. The sucker is setting up for a major tank session.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 05, 2017, 06:49:41 pm
More tension now...North Korea is getting frisky. Keep all of this in mind...I wouldn't be surprised to see the volatility index (VIX) start spiking like crazy. All of this stuff will definitely affect currencies directly.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/multiple-north-korean-missiles-flew-1-000-km-001140911.html
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 05, 2017, 07:00:42 pm
Taking the extra UJ short a bit early here at 113.74. It'll likely bounce a bit but the larger drop coming is well worth the wait. TP on all UJ shorts still set for 102.25.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 05, 2017, 10:34:11 pm
My underwaters are beginning to get close to the surface-i'll get a net to help them out lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 05, 2017, 10:35:50 pm
Hold tight Jav. The currency markets are setting up for some big moves over the next several weeks.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 05, 2017, 11:03:25 pm
EUR/NZD Weekly Chart...Long Confirmed

TDI breakout confirmed. I'm long on EUR/NZD at 1.51214. TP is set for 1.72 just below the 61.8 fib retrace although I expect it to move all the way to the 71.6.

Forget any notion you might have about this pair being overbought on the smaller time frames...they are irrelevant. The weekly is in charge and it has tons of room to run and so does the monthly chart.

Retraces along the way will be few and shallow. That's my prediction...for what it's worth.  ;D

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 06, 2017, 03:24:02 am
Acad 1.0180 to 1.02 shorts should be a good starting point for anyone looking to get in there. Keep entries light and be willing to let em run. This is a daily and weekly chart play.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 06, 2017, 03:41:42 am
Get ready for the crap to hit the fan...this would be an ideal catalyst for the technical sell off on UJ that I'm expecting. They always have to have a catalyst...

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-05/north-korea-fires-what-may-be-intercontinental-missile-yonhap
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 06, 2017, 08:26:14 am
Hey pennies.......check out USD/DKK weekly and monthly charts if you don't mind and show me what you think with an annotated TDI wave count chart?    I see it up at monthly highs in its monthly price action channel.    Looks like a really profitable potential short to me in the long run.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 06, 2017, 08:42:27 am
Its the mirror image opposite of EU, Qui. If EU goes up, USD/DKK goes down. You are correct...its headed south since I see EU headed up.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 06, 2017, 01:50:44 pm
You may have mentioned it before and I have obviously forgotten, but I never noticed but Usd/Dkk does do the opposite of E/U.    Any reason for not shorting U/Dkk then?    It seems to give more bang for the buck pip-wise.    Shouldn't there be more profits from the reversal, if you can wait out the pips against you before the reversal?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 06, 2017, 01:58:46 pm
No, Usd/Dkk is actually very expensive to trade. I usually only use it as a reference because its an easy way to see the EU chart inverted. There's no real benefit to trading Usd/Dkk so you come out just as well trading EU.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 06, 2017, 02:00:09 pm
Sure has been a slow day today in the market. I kniw NFP is Friday but I dont know what they're waiting for right now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 06, 2017, 02:17:05 pm
How is it expensive?    I don't doubt you but I don't understand..     It doesn't look like the spread is wide on it so what makes it expensive to trade?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 06, 2017, 02:18:08 pm
Oh and yes it has been slooooooowwww. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 06, 2017, 02:19:11 pm
Try to take a trade for 10,000 units on EU and it will cost you a few hundred. 10,000 units on USD/DKK cost a lot more.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 06, 2017, 02:24:41 pm
So busting your account would take less pips then?      And you would then make more per pip?     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 06, 2017, 02:28:35 pm
No you still only make the same per pip. But yes, it would bust your account fast if it goes the wrong way because that pair averages 300 to 400 pips per day. The general rule of thumb to go by is this...the higher it is above 1.00, the more expensive it is to trade per unit...at least with most pairs. AU and NU are cheap to trade because they're well below 1.00 in comparison with the dollar. But EU and GU are among the most expensive to trade because they are above 1.00 in relation to the dollar.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 06, 2017, 02:33:04 pm
Ok so you can make more being on the right side of the track because  U/Dkk does move more pips in its waves compared to E/U, for example, but it's far easier to be margined out.     Hmmm....
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 06, 2017, 02:36:28 pm
If you're taking trades based on a percentage of your account, no. If you're trying to trade it based on number of units like you do normal pairs, yes.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 06, 2017, 02:40:52 pm
I don't quite get it pennies, but I'm going to do some googling and maybe take a really small position on it at some point just to get a feel and better understandign what you are trying to get across.     Thank you for the input as always.    Time for some lunch; staring at the charts is really irritating right now.     Maybe I'll come back to a bit of a move one way or the other on these pairs.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 06, 2017, 02:52:05 pm
A picture is worth a thousand words Qui. Here's a quick snapshot from an old demo account I have. Notice that in order to trade for $1 a pip, you have to get 10,000 units which is just a bit over $200 of your actual money you have to commit to the trade.

But in order to get the same $1 a pip on USD/DKK, you have to get 70,000 units which means you have to commit $1,400 of your capital. It's literally 7 times more expensive to trade USD/DKK than it is to trade EU to get the same bang for your buck per pip.

Notice that both screens show each pip is worth exactly $1. Not to mention the fact that if you get caught going the wrong way, USD/DKK has a much higher daily range which means you not only have to commit 7 times more capital to get a decent value per pip, you can get hammered much more quickly. $1 a pip on EU can get you in the hole about $100 based on a 100 pip average daily range movement. But USD/DKK can get you in the hole $300 or $400 based on the average daily range.

Best bet is to stay away from USD/DKK completely. You're much better off trading EU.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 06, 2017, 05:39:23 pm
Thanks pennies.......you're right a picture is worth a thousand words.     It didn't even enter my mind to trade off my practice account.    I think I'll trade it off my fake money MT4 practice account just to see how long it takes to get myself into fake trouble.   lol    That'd beat real trouble with my real account.     Well back from lunch a while ago and still no price action to speak of.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 07, 2017, 06:52:03 am
Here's a quick heads up lesson in price action theory. Notice how the market has basically been dragging around, not just in some currency pairs but in multiple sectors like oil, as an example. When you see that type of compressed ADR movement, it means the spring is being wound up tightly for an explosive move that can last for quite some time. All you have to do is be on the right side of the move to make bank. Thats the beauty of TA. Proper analysis gets you in before the move occurs so don't get discouraged by the wimpy price action. Major volatility is just around the corner and that means volume which is what we need to make money. So hold onto your butts and get ready.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 07, 2017, 08:03:10 am
Added Acad short at 102.02

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 07, 2017, 11:16:45 am
Yawn.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 07, 2017, 11:30:03 am
Boring aint it Kermit...lol! Just wait...its a coming.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 07, 2017, 12:13:09 pm
Wait? You know I first got in to FOREX because the stock market closes at 4:30. I do my waiting on Saturday.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 07, 2017, 12:25:14 pm
Rofl! Forex only spends 1/3 of its time trending and 2/3 of its time consolidating so you might be SOL Kermit...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 07, 2017, 12:54:56 pm
Man, where's the market where things are always moving and chart patterns always work and they never close, not even on weekends?

You know some rich guys somewhere are running a market like that and hiding it from us.

Edit: While I'm going on about how nothing's moving, EURNZD has started moving.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 07, 2017, 12:57:32 pm
You haven't seen anything yet on EZ Kermit. Give it a few weeks...we'll hit that mark 2000 or so pips above us faster than you might think.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 07, 2017, 06:49:12 pm
EUR/AUD looking like a decent buy here
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 07, 2017, 07:07:57 pm
I cant tell for sure since I'm only looking at the phone chart, but it looks like EA needs to drop down lower from this small consolidation area Forex Trader. I'll be able to tell more when I get home and look at my regular charts though.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 07, 2017, 07:21:43 pm
that's possible...i'm going off the 4 hr chart.  i may very well be early.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 07, 2017, 07:23:16 pm
I agree. Longer time frames are lining up for a pop.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 08, 2017, 05:24:16 am
usdjpy looking bullish
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 07:11:18 am
Added Ucad short at 1.3445.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 07:12:15 am
Only a temporary move back towards highs on UJ Forex trader. The overall long term setup is calling for a massive drop on UJ.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 08, 2017, 08:30:18 am
Well that's the 78.6 fib hit on the daily wave down retrace for Ucad.    Added here but wonder if I'm not going to be adding again at the 88.6 fib......

Closed out my most recent short on Acad for a little small gain to show for this weeks effort in waiting.   Still have the two other positions in place for any additional price breakdown from that pair by weeks end.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 08, 2017, 08:51:08 am
U/J does indeed look bullish, but I can put nice TDI 1 thru 5 waves on the weekly chart prior to your current weekly TDI wave count pennies and they are clean and reflect that long price action move on the 5th wave.     It's very hard for me to get comfortable seeing TDI waves contrast with priced action waves though.    As long as wave 4 is truly wave 4 and it is truly wrapped up then we should be good, but I'm going to try not adding with this one unless it really goes against me some several hundred pips because it do look bullish and if the wave count is wrong then I'm going to need lots of reserve.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 09:12:19 am
All you have to do on most pairs is pop it once at the 71.6 and wait, Qui. Whether it hits the 78.6 or the 88.6 is irrelevant. Its not about catching tops and bottoms. Its about prepping for where its headed long term regardless of any minor movements in the short term. Only go back and add once the pattern starts moving in your favor and it becomes obvious the market is finished. Thats almost always signaled by a large candle that totally engulfs the previous 2 candles in the opposite direction. The basic idea is this...somebody else can worry about the top 20% and the bottom 20% of the whole move. I'm after the 60% in the middle.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 11:27:55 am
Call me crazy but I'm lowering my Ucad target to 1.20.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 11:37:27 am
Take it for what its worth...the charts are lining up all over the place for a massive market shock.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 08, 2017, 11:59:22 am
Audcad looking decent for a long here
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 08, 2017, 03:19:11 pm
Still have a small underwater nzd/usd short-but yesterday put on another and took 70 sweet pips today  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 08, 2017, 03:22:13 pm
Thanks to Pennies getting me to start looking at the weekly down-watching aud/cad with yall-no trade yet -actually learning some patience  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 08, 2017, 04:11:23 pm
Audcad looking decent for a long here

Bailed on that idea
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 04:35:39 pm
Probably just as well Forex Trader. The high thats in place gave way to a full 5 wave Elliott wave impulse series. The subsequent bounce would be wave 2 so there's a large wave 3 down coming at some point in the near future. Still room for some back and forth but longs on Acad would now be very risky.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 04:37:10 pm
Congrats Jav! Nicely done. Once you start evaluating the weekly, trading is much easier. Just figure out where the weekly is and use the smaller time frames to trade in the same direction.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 08, 2017, 05:09:20 pm
Thanks Pennies you are a great teacher
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 08, 2017, 07:12:56 pm
Thanks Pennies you are a great teacher

Seconded.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 09:58:41 pm
Thank you Kermit. But I have to return that to you as well because I distinctly remember you helping me out greatly during our days with the stinky pinkies.  COPI and RVGD ring any bells?  LOL!

So many thanks to you as well. I'm simply trying to return what I've been given.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 09:59:24 pm
Took 60 pips profit on an ACAD flipper position. Still holding my longer term primary trade.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 10:02:36 pm
NU Weekly Chart Update

Chart is still the same but price didn't even hesitate at the FE 61.8 so the FE 100 is on tap next. I still have one short left to TP at 0.68 with an expected hit at 0.6751.

Something tells me though that overall, NU still has a much larger drop ahead of it longer term.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 10:21:37 pm
EG 4 Hour Chart Update

We've completed the D wave cycle back to the top of the triangle pattern here. The move up didn't quite give us the 3 wave look I expected but it doesn't necessarily have to...that's part of what makes Elliott Wave patterns so hard to predict sometimes.

If the pattern is correct, GU may recover for a while now and then set up for a much larger sell off again later, although I have to honestly say I haven't seen anything on the GU chart that leads me to believe it's bottomed yet. So I'm not interested in shorting EG or going long on GU by any means at this point because that would go against the larger patterns evident in both of these pairs. EG is longer term up and GU is still longer term down so I really only want to follow those trends when trading because they offer the path of least resistance.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 08, 2017, 10:25:26 pm
EJ 4 Hour Chart Update

Still expecting a topside breakout here that will carry us up to above 125. My TP on the long is set for 125 even.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 09, 2017, 05:16:27 am
EJ 4 Hour Chart Update

Still expecting a topside breakout here that will carry us up to above 125. My TP on the long is set for 125 even.

might go long EURJPY sometime today as well.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 09, 2017, 07:32:56 am
I closed my EURNZD longs this morning at 1.53 because they were nicely green and there was a monetary policy statement coming up. No sense taking a needless risk. My intention was to put the money in my pocket and walk away, but I couldn't resist jumping back in at 1.527 since there were no surprises in the statement. At least it's a smaller position so I'm not totally shameless.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 09, 2017, 07:35:09 am
Nothing wrong with that Kermit. I'm in that one for the long haul but flipping it is a great way to trade it also. The only real surpise left is the Roller Coaster Draghi press conference which is usually a delight for all ages...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 09, 2017, 08:03:16 am
Closed out the EJ long on the pop for now. With UJ in a precarious position, EJ could retrace deeper before moving up later.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 09, 2017, 08:13:56 am
Long EU at 1.0611. TP set for 1.14.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 09, 2017, 08:36:16 am
UCAD turned around right at the 88.6 fib retrace. Funny...I never would have thought they would use Draghi as the catalyst to complete the TDI wave 4 pattern...LOL!

Ya just never know. But all you have to do is just take that first 71.6 retrace and wait...sooner or later the market will invent something to use to reverse it off that Wave 4 pattern.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on March 09, 2017, 09:45:04 am
Joined you long EU pennies @ 1.0587
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on March 09, 2017, 09:47:26 am
Also scaling into a short of UCAD @ 1.3508. I think I'm early though. It still can move up another 48 pips or so but won't be long now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 09, 2017, 10:13:14 am
Yep Heavy, Ucad is DOA...the market just doesn't know it yet.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 09, 2017, 10:32:40 am
Its gonna be a nice trade Heavy. It'll be another week or so before it moves but it'll be worth the wait.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 09, 2017, 10:42:48 am
A week or so, huh? So you know what the catalyst is then.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 09, 2017, 10:45:10 am
Nope, no idea Kermit. I just know there will be a catalyst and it will probably be on a relatively short time frame...days, maybe a week, before the next leg up begins.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 09, 2017, 12:03:34 pm
I was half-joking. Middle of month--my next student loan payment.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 09, 2017, 12:08:03 pm
Lol! I gotcha Kermit.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on March 09, 2017, 01:01:52 pm
The scalper in me wouldn't allow me to leave that 29 pips out there on EU. Still got 1 long position but scalping another along the way.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 09, 2017, 06:52:54 pm
Heavy that's how i like to trade too-get those green pips and leave one running to try for more-since thanks to Pennies i'm looking at the longterm charts and understanding better what direction i should be trading-YEP once a scalper always got that in your blood no getting away from it lol-but learning more patience too-that's what the other portion of the trade is for-as long as the longer term charts are still agreeing
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 09, 2017, 08:12:01 pm
i love looking at the community positioning on myfxbook.  it's so true when they say the crowd is almost always wrong.  Almost every pair that traders are heavily long or short is raging in the other direction.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 09, 2017, 10:37:08 pm
Yes Forex Trader, that is quite often the case with retail positioning. Some of them are about 50/50 on the split and others are very heavy in the long range on pairs that are dropping or heavy in the short range on pairs that are rallying.

I remember Simplegreen said he would often check his broker's open positions from the retail crowd and just plan on pretty much going the opposite way they were stacked up...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 10, 2017, 04:41:04 am
Yahoo Finance is quite open about that--if most of the money is long, they consider that a factor favouring shorts. There's a logic to it. A long trade is driven by traders going long, but if the positions are already heavily long, then most long traders have already entered and a growing proportion of new money is going to be shorts betting it's topped. At some point, they are likely to be right.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 10, 2017, 06:25:27 am
Just wanted to post this interesting article right quick. I may very well turn out to be wrong so I don't mind getting egg on my face. But I can see oil setting up for a massive move upside. Yet the whole market seems to have shifted to a bearish bias all of a sudden.

Interesting...we'll see how it works out. After all, I have been wrong before. But I wouldn't buy a ticket on the short train.   ;)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-10/oil-traders-are-having-some-fun-again-as-price-bubble-bursts
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 10, 2017, 06:55:02 am
UJ 4 Hour Chart

We've hit the first key level based on the TDI wave count here in this final 5th wave push topside. It can still go up to 116.59 or so but overall it won't make any difference. The larger weekly bias is bearish and I'm sticking with my calls for a massive sell off regardless of where this final wave movement takes us.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 10, 2017, 06:56:55 am
UCAD Daily Chart

We tagged the 88.6 fib retrace. Now all we need is the catalyst to complete the pattern.

Minimum downside target is 1.2220 so I'b be looking for 1.2250 on a TP here on shorts.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on March 10, 2017, 09:01:15 am
Yeah Jav, I can't help it. I know the long term pays off but I hate leaving pips on the table. One time I had a position that was 70+ pips in my favor only to watch it completely retrace back to where it started before continuing. That's potentially 140 pips on the same move so I haven't wrapped my head around setting it and forgetting it yet. Maybe one day though. Good luck and good to hear from you
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 10, 2017, 07:43:56 pm
Week 10 Wrap up:

Start: $126.82
Goal: $131.47
Attained: $143.60

Qui asked me last week about the size of the positions I take. Roughly, I take positions such that I need 100 pips to hit my weekly goal of 5%. So if my goal is $5.00 ($100 in the account), then I need $0.05 per pip.  If I get more than that, I beat my goal. Ideally, I’d only look at the pips and pay no attention to the money, but it’s hard to track pips, easy to track money. This approach risks more than is generally recommended, but I’m a swing trader (I like to hold positions for less than a week) and can’t afford to drop hundreds of pips if I’m going to be out in a day or two. If a trade goes bad, I need to bail long before then. Anyway, it’s been working for me.

That’s all by way of saying I had another good week. I gained $16.78, about 13%. Mostly on the EURNZD run (thanks Pennies!) with a couple timely flips. Also a bit on EURUSD and AUDCAD. I thought I was going to have to take a fairly large write down on the dollar shorts, but it tanked at the end so  only USDCAD ended the week in the red.

What I did poorly: I rushed into positions Sunday night because once I make up my mind, I hate waiting (impatience). Initially EURNZD and AUDCAD went against me and I flipped to go the other way, then they turned around…you know the drill. Chasing instead of waiting. I was impulsively jumping into a buzzsaw that could eat up my account right quick.

What I did well: I caught myself, stopped blindly chasing pips and got back on the original plan.

Another thing I did well—I’m in the EST and wake up around 5 AM, Europe comes online 4 AM EST and often spikes out of the gate. Usually it retraces over the next couple hours to get back to wherever it was and I’m getting better at playing it. I check Oanda first thing in the morning and if it spiked in my direction, I close the position and wait for it to come back before reentering. If it spiked against me, I just wait. That move alone got me a lot of pips this week.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 10, 2017, 08:12:18 pm
Well done again Kermit. The discipline factor is by far the hardest part of any trading plan and you seem to be doing well there. Trust me, we all have our pitfalls, myself included.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 11, 2017, 04:53:47 am
Thanks Pennies. Learning how to pick winners and losers was easy. Learning how to play the winners and lay off the losers has taken years. All of us have lost money on pairs that did exactly what we expected them to. I wouldn't be surprised if most of my losses came on pairs that did exactly what I expected them to.

This run I'm on now is the longest sustained streak I've ever had. The key so far has been sticking to a plan and not letting success breed carelessness. Every week I have to renew that discipline--Just because I did it yesterday doesn't mean I'll do it tomorrow.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 11, 2017, 06:07:53 am
Weekly WTIC Updated Chart

I think we were just a bit premature in calling the IHS pattern on oil but I think the pattern is still valid. What we might have here is what is known as a complex head and shoulders. Complex based patterns consist of things like multiple shoulders, 2 heads instead of 1, etc. In this case, we have a pretty standard slanted neckline...very common.

But the shoulders are a bit awkward. The left shoulder actually developed along a declining trendline with multiple hits instead of just the standard 1 hit and bounce back to the neckline. So, it would be logical to assume that the right shoulder will follow the same template, more or less. That's what appears to be happening. There's room for one more hit on the inclined trendline.

Of course, we have to also be ready to admit the pattern isn't valid if we see a substantial breakdown. I would think that a substantial move down below that right-shoulder inclining trend line would be enough to disqualify the entire pattern but even then there is another possible formation that would still fit with a larger pullback.

Either way, it will do what it will do and there's nothing we can do about it. I still hold with my original evaluation that, in spite of any pullbacks that may occur or what patterns play out or don't play out, being short oil is a bad idea based on the longer term prospects the chart has laid out.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 11, 2017, 07:45:47 am
Week 10 Wrap up:

Start: $126.82
Goal: $131.47
Attained: $143.60

Qui asked me last week about the size of the positions I take. Roughly, I take positions such that I need 100 pips to hit my weekly goal of 5%. So if my goal is $5.00 ($100 in the account), then I need $0.05 per pip.  If I get more than that, I beat my goal. Ideally, Iíd only look at the pips and pay no attention to the money, but itís hard to track pips, easy to track money. This approach risks more than is generally recommended, but Iím a swing trader (I like to hold positions for less than a week) and canít afford to drop hundreds of pips if Iím going to be out in a day or two. If a trade goes bad, I need to bail long before then. Anyway, itís been working for me.

Thatís all by way of saying I had another good week. I gained $16.78, about 13%. Mostly on the EURNZD run (thanks Pennies!) with a couple timely flips. Also a bit on EURUSD and AUDCAD. I thought I was going to have to take a fairly large write down on the dollar shorts, but it tanked at the end so  only USDCAD ended the week in the red.

What I did poorly: I rushed into positions Sunday night because once I make up my mind, I hate waiting (impatience). Initially EURNZD and AUDCAD went against me and I flipped to go the other way, then they turned aroundÖyou know the drill. Chasing instead of waiting. I was impulsively jumping into a buzzsaw that could eat up my account right quick.

What I did well: I caught myself, stopped blindly chasing pips and got back on the original plan.

Another thing I did wellóIím in the EST and wake up around 5 AM, Europe comes online 4 AM EST and often spikes out of the gate. Usually it retraces over the next couple hours to get back to wherever it was and Iím getting better at playing it. I check Oanda first thing in the morning and if it spiked in my direction, I close the position and wait for it to come back before reentering. If it spiked against me, I just wait. That move alone got me a lot of pips this week.

Awesome gains kermit. 
That 100 pips is approximately what I need to reach my weekly goal too though I didn't get it this week because I'm short on Acad and Ucad and UJ and none of the pairs moved down 100 pips.   So I made 2% on the most recent add positions that did move lower from entry price which allowed me to cost average to make some gains for the week.     I would have had made 10% myself had I held a U/DKK position overnight when taking a short off a tight ascending wedge pattern formed on the hourly chart and my entry was only a few pips off from being a perfect entry but since that pair can move so far in pips overnight against me potentially, I nervously bailed with a small sub percent gain and went to bed.
Chasing pips......bad, and you stopped yourself......good.     
I've noticed that same typical retrace so I consider it when in a position or entering one.    Doesn't always retrace, but I always consider it.
Sunday open enthusiasm is a battle for me too, but I am getting much better about waiting to enter a position instead of rushing into one on open.   
10% gains a week will make you a millionaire in two years.   
That's my main goal.     Getting there is proving to be a real challenge.   

Question:    Do you have your settings for a certain percentage risk upon opening a trade?    Mine is set at 2% still but I'm getting my 5 or 6% risk as I add additional positions as price moves against me.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 11, 2017, 09:35:43 am
Going to be watching chfjpy (long), audjpy(long), audcad(long), and nzdjpy(short) for potential trades next week. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 11, 2017, 01:56:47 pm
Pennies could you give me the settings/perimeters on that $WTIC chart -so i can match your chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 11, 2017, 01:59:38 pm
Hey Jav. I just used the generic stockcharts.com website. All I did was add a couple more years to the total displayed data and then I added 40 bars in the options listed below the chart. Other than that, all I did was select the weekly chart.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 11, 2017, 02:53:24 pm
ok thanks-do you know symbols for-usd cad aud npy etc-is there a listing somewhere
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 11, 2017, 03:20:38 pm
Actually what I do for those is look at the individual currencies on stockcharts. We already have the pairs on MT4. But we can look at CAD by itself on stockcharts by using the symbol $CAD or we can look at the Yen by typing in $XJY. Technically, they're still compared to the USD but you basically get an inverse chart. When you look at $CAD, for example, what you're really seeing is the UCAD chart flipped upside down. Its a great way to get another angle on a currency pair. You'd be amazed at the obvious stuff that jumps out at you when you see things from a different angle. So if I look at $CAD and its setting up for a bullish topside run, that means UCAD is going to drop. USD/DKK is a great way to figure out what EU will do. If USD/DKK drops, EU goes up. Even though they are different currency pairs, they are directly inverse in their movement to each other.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 11, 2017, 03:27:52 pm
Jav, another site you can use is Xe.com if you like. They have a nice mobile app, too. It only displays line charts but its very easy to flip the chart for any currency pair and it shows up to 10 years of data. Since its completely real time, it displays data 24/7 which allows you to see if a pair is gapping up or down before Oanda opens Sunday evening.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 11, 2017, 03:41:59 pm
ok $CAd-$XJY--is there a symbol for the aussie-or it's inverse
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 11, 2017, 03:46:49 pm
On the Aussie, I think you have to type in both pairs. So for AU, you have to type in $AUDUSD in stockcharts. Or you can type in $USDAUD to flip it upside down. For AJ, you would type in $AUDJPY or $JPYAUD to see the inverted chart.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 11, 2017, 03:50:05 pm
ok that's interesting--always thought if i could turn my chart upside down i might not make those stupid mistakes lol--i'll go check it out
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 11, 2017, 04:45:34 pm
Week 11 Post

Start: $143.60
Target: $148.49

Looking at this weekís charts:

EURNZD: I closed out EURNZD Friday with a solid profit. It looks ready to pull back on the shorter time frames so while it may be nowhere near the top on the long-term charts, I think itís due for some rest. 4-hour chart attached. Will watch for a bit.

GU is another one that looks ready to drop again after several days of sideways trading. The TDI is rising while the price sits in a tight range. The EMA-12 has caught up on the 4 HR chart while the green line has touched the top Bollinger.  Definite maybe for a short.

USDCAD: This looks like a good short to me right now. Pennies, Iíve marked on the chart what Iím guessing is a hidden divergence. Do you need 3 hits for that? Or is two enough? In any case, I have a short that is under water and am thinking of adding as it looks ready to drop.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 11, 2017, 04:52:28 pm
Hey Kermit. Looks like standard Class A negative divergence on your chart there. While I do like to see some type of negative divergence on a potential TDI wave 4 peak, I've also learned that price can drop hard even without that divergence. I've seen many instances where price has fallen off a cliff when the TDI was actually at its zenith on a move up or at its very lowest on the bottom end before exploding upwards. I'm basically counting on the longer time frame TDI wave count accuracy on Ucad and I'm not really watching the shorter time frames as much due to the chop I see on the lower end. The daily and weekly wave count seems to be very clear so I'm sticking with those.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 12, 2017, 12:27:26 pm
Potential catalyst for the EU run topside...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-12/draghi-outlook-snaps-euro-interest-rate-bears-out-of-hibernation
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 12, 2017, 06:31:47 pm
Hi qui, I don't have a safety net (I don't even know how to make a setting like that, though I haven't looked). The only thing I do is, sometimes, when I'm green and there's a support zone between my entry and the current price, I'll set a stop loss under it so I bail if that support zone doesn't hold. That way, I lock in some green.

If there were a setting where the stop loss only kicked in if the candle closed on the wrong side, I'd use that. But, SFAIK, there is no such setting.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 04:40:22 am
ACAD short at 1.0193 for a flipper.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 04:52:10 am
Make that 2 Acad flipper positions. TP set for 1.0120 on both flippers. Still holding one other position long term for .93.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 13, 2017, 09:03:31 am
Make that 2 Acad flipper positions. TP set for 1.0120 on both flippers. Still holding one other position long term for .93.

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We are seeing different things. I'm long from 1.0178
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 09:05:41 am
Could be Forex Trader. Theres definitely wiggle room either way. But I'm sticking with the long term charts on this one even if it does pop a bit more.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 13, 2017, 09:45:22 am
kermit.........I can't tell you how to set your risk percentage order entry settings in other forex platforms but I can tell you that in the Oanda platform, I go to the toolbar in my account page and go: "Tools/User Preferences/Trading tab and then in the "Default Order Size window, I type in "2" in that window for %Leveraged NAV.    At least I believe that was what I did to make an auto 2% risk size trade come up in a window to allow me to click on the order as is or round it off, or double the number of units to double down when I do or enter how ever many units I want, but it allows me to start with 2% risk on the initial trade at least.     That 2% won't give me the 3% gains each week I am looking for but for the initial position entry it will allow me to be on the wrong side of the trade for a couple thousand pips I think before I can be margined out, then I add to my position by doubling down every logical point 100 to 200 pips against me and that allows me all that wiggle room that pennies refers to so I can cost average a much better entry before the price action turns my way.   

I hate taking losses of any kind so I love and sometimes go with a stop loss placed in some window of profit above my entry once I've become profitable.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 13, 2017, 12:23:22 pm
Pennies, you've been looking for a long entry on GU for a while. Adam Button at Forexlive has an essay on how to play the Article 50 trigger expected next week--he's thinking short squeeze.

http://news.forexlive.com/!/the-bad-news-is-already-priced-into-gbp-20170313
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 12:27:19 pm
Very possible Kermit. I haven't seen a long trigger on GU yet but it could be pending soon.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 04:34:36 pm
Closed the flippers for about 22 pips profit. No volume so it could be a corrective move or the market is simply going to stall before the Fed wednesday. Eithet way its best to take da money and run and see what develops next. With my luck, acad will tank now...lol! Still have my long term short in play.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 13, 2017, 05:41:02 pm
Closed the flippers for about 22 pips profit. No volume so it could be a corrective move or the market is simply going to stall before the Fed wednesday. Eithet way its best to take da money and run and see what develops next. With my luck, acad will tank now...lol! Still have my long term short in play.

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yes, very indecisive and stagnant.  got stopped out twice trying to short nzdjpy. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 05:56:32 pm
I've been watching NJ myself. It appears to be in a TDI wave 3 sell off. The best short opp will come when it retraces back near the highs in a TDI wave 4 movement. I'm just waiting on the pop to nail it.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 13, 2017, 06:10:20 pm
Societe Generale FX Strategy still likes longs in AUD/JPY and USD/JPY.

"The combination of oil prices falling and industrial metals bouncing will help AUD, against the yen and against the New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar for that matter. A slow grind higher in US real yields is consistent with a slow grind higher in USD/JPY," SocGen argues.

In Europe, SocGen remains bearish GBP in particular.

"EUR/GBP can move higher as French opinion polls settle down with Le Pen and Macron at 26% and Fillon stabilising at 20%," SocGen adds,
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 06:19:56 pm
Opened a 2nd long term short on Acad at 1.0180. Let it do its worst...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 06:36:48 pm
Societe Generale FX Strategy still likes longs in AUD/JPY and USD/JPY.

"The combination of oil prices falling and industrial metals bouncing will help AUD, against the yen and against the New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar for that matter. A slow grind higher in US real yields is consistent with a slow grind higher in USD/JPY," SocGen argues.

In Europe, SocGen remains bearish GBP in particular.

"EUR/GBP can move higher as French opinion polls settle down with Le Pen and Macron at 26% and Fillon stabilising at 20%," SocGen adds,

If there's one thing I've learned in my years of trading Forex Trader, it's that analysts have one fundamental problem...fundamentals...LOL! They have very little in the way of technical analysis in their calls and they look primarily at fundamentals to base their analysis. I can tell you this much...when oil does explode to the topside and their analysis goes out the window, fundamentals will have little if anything to do with the move. When that move happens, UCAD will drop like a rock and take ACAD down with it, especially with the combination of AU having moved into bear territory along with UCAD. That combination is deadly from a TA standpoint.

Of course, I've been wrong before...LOL! But between fundamentals and TA, I'll take TA any day.   ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 06:40:43 pm
ACAD Weekly Chart

No change. The only thing that could change is if ACAD makes a slight new high. That would only alter the FE 61.8 and the FE 100 targets slightly. But right now, the first target is still 0.9616 followed by the likely target of 0.9223.

Keep in mind this is a weekly chart. It can grind around for several weeks before it makes its move. Patience is required.



Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 13, 2017, 06:42:18 pm
Yeah, i'm TA first 100% but its always nice if/when fundamentals line up with a TA thesis.  And I take these fundamental ideas with a grain of salt.  i just enjoy reading them. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 06:43:59 pm
UCAD Weekly Chart

The shallow retrace suggests that the next sell off will be pretty severe. First target is 1.2220, which is why I have my initial TP set to 1.2250. Again, this is a weekly chart and it can take time to get moving so patience is a must.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 06:44:55 pm
Yeah, i'm TA first 100% but its always nice if/when fundamentals line up with a TA thesis.  And I take these fundamental ideas with a grain of salt.  i just enjoy reading them.

Yeah, I used to get a kick out of watching those guys on Squawk Box. The talking heads on there are great for a laugh...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 13, 2017, 09:21:46 pm
Pennies, you've been looking for a long entry on GU for a while. Adam Button at Forexlive has an essay on how to play the Article 50 trigger expected next week--he's thinking short squeeze.

http://news.forexlive.com/!/the-bad-news-is-already-priced-into-gbp-20170313

Looks like maybe GU could be setting up for some topside after all Kermit. We've completed a full 5 wave TDI sequence to the downside, followed by a 1-2-3 count. So I would look for a deep retrace back near the lows which could give you an opportunity for that long position.

Normally, I like to see the TDI Wave 4 come back to the 71.6 fib of the length of the TDI wave 3 price action push. That would bring us back to 1.2166 for a possible long entry.

GU 4 Hour Chart..


Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 06:47:47 am
Pennies, you've been looking for a long entry on GU for a while. Adam Button at Forexlive has an essay on how to play the Article 50 trigger expected next week--he's thinking short squeeze.

http://news.forexlive.com/!/the-bad-news-is-already-priced-into-gbp-20170313

Looks like maybe GU could be setting up for some topside after all Kermit. We've completed a full 5 wave TDI sequence to the downside, followed by a 1-2-3 count. So I would look for a deep retrace back near the lows which could give you an opportunity for that long position.

Normally, I like to see the TDI Wave 4 come back to the 71.6 fib of the length of the TDI wave 3 price action push. That would bring us back to 1.2166 for a possible long entry.

GU 4 Hour Chart..

GU made a new low on the TDI Wave 4 pullback so it's still fully in bear territory regardless of the potential TDI Wave 5 move up coming.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 06:49:21 am
ACAD Hourly Chart

No sense in watching this thing today. It's going to continue to grind out in that contracting triangle for hours and hours yet.

Might as well go watch the paint grow and the grass dry.....errrr...ummm....switch that.  ???
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 07:00:27 am
GU Weekly Chart

This is the ultimate long trigger signal here Kermit. The TDI must break out of it's contracting triangle and price must also follow through on a breakout at the same time. If that happens, GU will be a nice long position.

However, in the near term, I think GU stands a good chance of moving back up to around 1.26 in the price action triangle.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 07:02:07 am
Long GU at 1.2132 with TP set at 1.26.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 07:18:30 am
Flipper short on ACAD at 1.01876. Back down to the bottom of the triangle from here.

Looks like 1.0150 is the bottom target.

ACAD Hourly Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 14, 2017, 07:26:04 am
Oil drops after Saudis tell OPEC they reversed some output cuts
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 07:27:42 am
It needed to drop a bit more to finish out the complex right shoulder pattern. Oil is setting up for a huge pop before all is said and done...just a matter of time.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 07:35:21 am
Watch now...they'll reverse that pop on ACAD and UCAD like it never even happened.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 14, 2017, 08:02:06 am
That would please me as I added a UCAD short a few minutes ago as the pop seemed to run out of steam.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 14, 2017, 08:03:14 am
GBPJPY 4hr looking bad

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 08:03:49 am
Morning Kermit. It'll move back down to the bottom of the triangle around 1.0150 and then it has room for one more push back up towards 1.02. After that, it is severely DOA and will drop like a rock.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 08:07:27 am
GBPJPY 4hr looking bad

GJ 4 Hour Chart

My prediction for this one...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 14, 2017, 08:17:34 am
GBPJPY daily view

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 08:18:38 am
I feel like a kid at Christmas...man, these TDI wave patterns are setting up all over the place along with the price action patterns...LOL! Now if I only had a couple extra million dollars...  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 08:29:32 am
Mu GU long looking good here. That sucker is gonna pop hard over the next couple of weeks.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 08:43:07 am
I want you guys to watch something. This will substantiate what I've been saying all along about news and reports being molded and used to quantify currency movements. The technical pattern on GU already says its gonna move up hard over the next few weeks. Watch the analysts and commentators try to fit the reports in with the rally.

It happens every time. The bottom line is this...what moves these pairs is speculation...only the institutions have the power to shove these things around. The news that they pin the moves on has nothing to do with it.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 14, 2017, 08:48:05 am
Mu GU long looking good here. That sucker is gonna pop hard over the next couple of weeks.

looks precarious on daily. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 08:53:56 am
Don't believe it for a second, Forex Trader. Things are not as they appear. Market psychology is all that matters here and I can tell you for sure, they're going to take it north.

 ;)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 14, 2017, 09:38:11 am
I have a long on GU sitting at 1.19 in case the Article 50 trigger causes a spike down before the move up. Otherwise I'm a spectator until the dust settles from that announcement.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 09:39:28 am
I'm not worried Kermit. The pattern is set and just waiting on the catalyst. When is the announcement due?

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 09:43:38 am
Ooops! Never mind Kermit. I just looked it up. Could be that May gets the green light by tomorrow on Article 50. We'll see how it goes.

Gotta run for the day gang. I'll check back in later.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 14, 2017, 09:53:09 am
Right, any day now. That's why I'm leery of GU at the moment, I know from your time perspective it makes no difference, but with my shorter horizon, it does.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 09:58:32 am
Just take a lighter position Kermit. As long as the allocation represents a lowered risk, its all good.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 10:19:37 am
TP on Acad flipper adjusted to 1.0155. It'll evaporate like a fart in a wind tunnel...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 14, 2017, 10:46:56 am
Right, any day now. That's why I'm leery of GU at the moment, I know from your time perspective it makes no difference, but with my shorter horizon, it does.

its just waiting to see what happens to either break down or bounce off that daily trendline imo
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 10:48:31 am
A knee jerk dip on GU can certainly happen. But the institutions are telegraphing a big pop.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 11:18:54 am
Very slight new high on Acad from the last peaks suggests that the final top may be in sooner than I expected. No more flippers. Holding all positions for the larger sell off.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 01:26:50 pm
Acad still tracing out a complex ABC correction so a move back towards the highs isnt out of the question. As I've mentioned before, corrective patterns are a pain to nail down so I normally just ignore them and stick with the long term wave counts. Shorter time frames are too noisy. It will all play out in time.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 14, 2017, 07:13:16 pm
using this M and W pattern notes from Arthur Merrille's PDF
file:///C:/Users/Corey/Downloads/M&W%20WAVE%20PATTERNS%20-%20Arthuer%20A.%20Merrill%20-%201980%20(4).pdf
and using the zz_fibo_generator MT4 indicator
AUD/CHF 4 Hour seems to be setting up for a Head and Shoulder pattern
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 07:25:48 pm
I havent looked at that pair in a long time Jav. I'll take a look at it when I get home tonight and see where it is on a top-down TDI wave count for you.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 07:33:36 pm
Closed out one of the Acad shorts I originally took as a flipper. I already have 2 shorts there so no need for a 3rd position now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 14, 2017, 07:57:16 pm
Regarding Merrill's PDF info
somewhere couple years back i ran across something else on that theory-but can't find it now so i will give you what i have written down--these are projections
W1 should bring a W2 >W 3 >W 8
W 2 >should bring a W 3 > W 8
W 3  >W 8
W 4 > W5 > W 10
W 5 > W 10
W 6 > W 7 > W 11 > W 12--Also a H and S Pattern
W 7 >W 11 > W 12--Also a H and S Pattern
W 8 I  HAVE NO NOTATION ON IT
W 9 > W 13 > W 14-ALSO H AND S PATTERN
W 10-I HAVE NO NOTATION ON IT
W 11 > W 12--ALSO A H AND S PATTERN
W 12 I HAVE NO NOTATION ON IT--EXCEPT DOWN TRENDING
W 13 > W 14--ALSO A H AND S PATTERN
W 14 -I HAVE NO NOTATION ON IT
W 15 > W 16-ALSO A H AND S PATTERN
W 16 --I HAVE NO NOTATION ON IT

NOW

M 1-I HAVE NO NOTATION ON IT
M 2 - I HAVE NO NOTATION ON IT
M 3 -I HAVE NO NOTATION ON IT
M 4 > M 3
M 5 > M 11 > M 10 > M 6
M 6 > M 5
M 7 - I HAVE NO NOTATION ON IT
M 8 > M 4 > M 3
M 9 - I HAVE NO NOTATION ON IT
M 10 > M 6 > M 5
M 11 > M 10 >M  6 > M 5
M 12 > M 7
M 13 > M 12 > M 7
M 14 > M 16 > M 15 > 14 > M 9
M 15 > M 16 > M 14 > M 9
M 16 > M 14 > M 9

 LOL I HUNT AND PECK SO IT TOOK ME AWHILE
Not always does it work but they are projections
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 14, 2017, 07:59:35 pm
Pennies would appreciate your count
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 14, 2017, 08:27:42 pm
ok found another pdf info from Robert Levy

http://www.emmanuelnyemera.com/patterns/M-and-W-Patterns.pdf

especially listing the ascending patterns-descending patterns-Head and shoulder patters-inverted head and shoulders pattern
triangles-broading patterns

enjoy
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 10:38:24 pm
ACAD Hourly Chart

Just got home to check out the charts. ACAD is still fine. It's still inside the triangle pattern. Wave 2 TDI peak completed with the slight new high. Looking for it to dip back down again tomorrow to the bottom of the triangle.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 11:11:52 pm
Pennies would appreciate your count

AUD/CHF 4 Hour Chart

The TDI counts on most of the time frames are a mess Jav but this one seems pretty clear so far. The TDI has completed 5 waves down and is currently working on TDI Wave 1 back up. Then, we need a TDI Wave 2 back down which normally produces a lower low. Based on a fib measurement, that would put it down somewhere around 0.7539, give or take.

But first I'd expect a move back up to the top price action trendline...then another drop.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 11:13:56 pm
UJ Daily Chart

Still can't rule out a move up to the FE 100 around 116.59. But the longer term charts are still pointing to some heavy selling coming later so any rallies up to that level should be shorted.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 14, 2017, 11:34:54 pm
WTIC Weekly Chart

Finally made it back to the trend line. Now we see if things get a bit more interesting.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 15, 2017, 07:32:09 am
ACAD Hourly Chart Update

Shaping up to be more of a standard ABC retrace, which is actually just fine with me. This means the corrective move up will finish up more quickly and we can finally get started with some downside momentum by the end of this week and into next week.

Look for a move back to right near the highs and then a sell off.

Added one final ACAD short here at 1.0210. Just going to hold the 3 trades for the larger sell off later.


Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 15, 2017, 07:52:10 am
Setting GU profit target at 1.24 for now. That's probably going to be the first stall point in the move up. Plenty of time to get back in later for the final move above 1.26.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 15, 2017, 08:25:28 am
The long I set on EURNZD Sunday just triggered. So of course now I'm thinking I set it too high.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 15, 2017, 08:27:09 am
I wouldnt worry about it Kermit. Long term charts on EZ are very bullish. Its just burning off the overbought surge to free up space for topside momentum.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 15, 2017, 08:49:17 am
Taking a clue from Jav's AUD/CHF and shorting it here at 0.7660. Topside risk is minimal and downside reward is substantial. TP set for 0.7550.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 15, 2017, 09:43:40 am
EURGBP looking weak
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 15, 2017, 03:19:23 pm
Went ahead and booked 570 pips of profit on several trades. Waiting on the rest to play out now. Among the trades closed were:

GU long
EU long
UCAD shorts
One UJ short

ACAD and AUD/CHF are topping out right in this area. ACAD did finally decide to push up towards that 88.6 fib retrace after all but that's not consequential. It only sets it up for a deeper sell off.

Still targeting 0.93 on the downside for ACAD shorts but I'll probably take some off in the 0.96 area at the first FE 61.8 retrace.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 15, 2017, 03:22:09 pm
TP on AUD/CHF short lowered to 0.75
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 15, 2017, 03:33:06 pm
Just a quick explanation for closing out some of the risk pair trades. I see a very strong possibility of the US dollar turning around and gaining tremendous strength as the stock market sells off soon. When that happens, pairs like UCAD and USD/DKK could rise while pairs like EU, GU, AU, and NU tank hard. Some are slated to move down harder than others but I believe that this pop in the market today with the dollar sell off is completely contrary to what should have happened. The dollar should have rallied on rate hike news, whereas we saw a sharp drop.

I fully believe that the market and the dollar are going to get back to their normal inverse correlation....market up, dollar down. But if the market tanks soon, the US dollar will rise while the risk pairs tank with the market...except UJ of course....the Yen is a safe haven during troubled times, so the folks buying the Yen will outweigh the folks buying the dollar and UJ drops.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents worth...we'll see how it plays out. But that seems like the most probable scenario at this point.

EDIT: This could also mean that my bullish call on oil is wrong as well. But that's irrelevant to what ACAD is going to do long term. If AU tanks, ACAD will follow suit.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 15, 2017, 06:34:34 pm
Dollar Index daily

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 15, 2017, 07:35:57 pm
Dollar Index daily

Yes but look at the weekly dollar index chart. It shows a clean breakout and, at least so far, it's bouncing off of the breakout area. If that gains any topside steam, the dollar is going to push up hard again.

Honestly, it's kind of heard to tell at the moment. I may just be over-analysing the whole shooting match. I was originally counting on major rallies on things like EU. But if things explode north for the dollar index, EU and the rest of the risk pairs can drop back hard.

There's also the EUR/NZD pair. That pair is set up to go north a long way, even if EU drops back. It's a pair that normally only rallies during risk-off environments. If its about to surge, that would normally be accompanied by a market sell-off, which would, under normal conditions, support US dollar longs.

But, the market will do what it likes regardless. I'll just keep taking the TA trades and leave the rest to the powers that be...LOL!

Dollar index weekly chart...

 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 15, 2017, 07:41:10 pm
AUD/CHF 4 Hour Chart Update

TP target projections. I'll probably be out at the FE 100 so my current TP is set for 0.75 but it can go much, much lower based on some larger time frame projections.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 15, 2017, 07:43:48 pm
ACAD Daily Chart

The new high didn't really change anything. The TP targets barely moved. The blue FE 61.8 is from the weekly chart and the yellow FE levels are from the current downside projection. She's gonna fall apart.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 16, 2017, 08:04:32 am
Theres still enough wiggle room on Acad to tap 1.03 or so before rolling over. Still wrapping up some minor TDI wave movements here. Patience is a virtue...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 16, 2017, 08:25:45 am
Taking a preliminary short on AU here at .7695.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 16, 2017, 09:44:23 am
Dropping my NU short target from .68 to .60. Its got a major drop coming. Might adjust it later but its going way beyond that .68 level.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 16, 2017, 09:48:41 am
Dropping my Aud/Chf target from .75 to .70 as well. Its going a lot lower.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 16, 2017, 11:39:57 am
once again great charts Pennies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 16, 2017, 11:41:11 am
Thanks Jav. Now if I can just convince the market to do what I want it to, we're good to go...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 16, 2017, 12:02:00 pm
Facts are simple and facts are straight
Facts are lazy and facts are late
Facts all come with points of view
Facts don't do what I want them to
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 16, 2017, 12:23:29 pm
Cute and so right Kermit
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 16, 2017, 12:46:26 pm
Lol! Good one Kermit. That kind of goes along with one I heard...   If IFS and BUTS were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas. 😄

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 16, 2017, 04:14:48 pm
I can't take credit, it's from a talking heads song.

I closed my eurnzd long for over 150 pips in less than 24 hours. I can't compete with Pennies' almost 600 pips in a day, but it has been that kind of week. I have one trade left, a smallish short on GBPUSD entered after this morning's pop. I'm down a few pips and will keep a close eye on it. I expect it to drift down until the article 50 announcement, but I'm closing it tomorrow, green or red, and waiting for a long opportunity sometime in the next 2 weeks.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 16, 2017, 04:34:59 pm
Awesome Kermit! Dont worry too much about the number if pips. Its only the percentage that counts whether the pip count is low or high. I only locked in about 3% with that nearly 600 pips so its all relative. I keep my risk low on entries but it all works out in the long run.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 16, 2017, 05:59:41 pm
Awesome job Kermit
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 16, 2017, 08:42:32 pm
 Thanks, Jav. How's your trading going?


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 16, 2017, 09:35:40 pm
slow right now-sister having to go into nursing home after she gets out of hospital-nephews are turds and niece has too much on her plate-and i'm in another state-and really couldn't care for her by myself -age is messing with me too-but she's a social person and loves to read-write letters -she pretty much bed ridden-she let sugar get to her bigtime-once she settles in she'll love it and niece will go there every day and i'm sure more than once-and she has many grand children some are not druggies-but most are-stupid kids-her boys are druggies too--and it's nottoo far that ican'tvisit-i'm taking care of her dog for her-they said i could bring her when we go-so that will help-so maybe when all gets settled down the market will like me better lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 16, 2017, 10:37:16 pm
Shorting EJ at 122.19, looking to TP at 119.35.

EDIT: Let's make that TP target 120.10 just to be safe on the EJ short.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 17, 2017, 05:46:42 am
Shorting EJ at 122.19, looking to TP at 119.35.

EDIT: Let's make that TP target 120.10 just to be safe on the EJ short.

joined you on that just under 122
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 17, 2017, 05:47:47 am
Thanks for the update, Jav. It sounds like things are in a better place than they were a month or so ago when you were telling us about it. At least now you have a plan. Hopefully the problem kids are in their early 20's and maybe will grow out of it while their mom is still around. If they're in their 30's, then there's less hope.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 05:55:36 am
Closed the EJ short for a bit over 20 pips of profit. Could be one more leg up. Plenty of time to flip these critters and get back in later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 06:07:49 am
And of course EJ fell apart right after I closed out...LOL! Figures....That's why I usually just hold for the larger pattern.

I see GU is going to hit my conservative 1.24 target as well. Later, it'll move up to 1.26 but it needs a retrace in the 1.24 area first.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 17, 2017, 06:11:55 am
Booked a quick 45 pips on eurjpy short
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 06:14:14 am
Noce trade Forex Trader! I exited too soon.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 17, 2017, 06:34:43 am
Pennies, it hit your 1.24 and then fell apart.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 06:38:09 am
I missed that Kermit. I just looked at the chart and I see what you mean. Oh well...I bailed early at 1.23 but it still worked out well. There will be lots of time to get in later for a possible move to above 1.26 but I want to let the retrace TDI waves play out.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 17, 2017, 06:42:50 am
Noce trade Forex Trader! I exited too soon.

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Thanks, you still made a profit.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 07:00:42 am
I had closed my AU short yesterday for a flipper. Back in short again at .77 but I'm probably early as usual. Downside target is 0.7365.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 07:02:01 am
ACAD is taking advantage of that possible move up to the 1.03 area I saw yesterday. Looks like 1.0295 is the cap area.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 17, 2017, 07:04:26 am
I'm thinking about setting another eurnzd long around 1.5250. Trying not to since it's Friday, but it's very tempting.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 07:05:41 am
I'm just letting EZ do its thing, Kermit. The long term setup is gorgeous. That one I'm making myself hold because if I flip it, I'm gonna kick myself...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 07:06:37 am
ACAD tapping the 88.6 fib retrace so we might now see that 1.0295...time will tell. I'm not gonna overanalyze it here. The long term setup is all that matters regardless of what peak it makes in this area. It doesn't change my long term targets.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 10:54:42 am
Acad short flipper at 1.0285

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 12:54:12 pm
Closed the flipper for a bit over 10 pips profit. Too late in the day to be holding.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 01:17:16 pm
Shorting GU at 1.24 even for a bit.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 17, 2017, 02:36:34 pm
nope Kirmet late 40's and early fifties-no hope for them -my sister is 75-talked to her today feeling so much better-ok about going to nursing home-that was a relief to hear on both counts--i told her your daughter has got your back-she said yes she does
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 17, 2017, 03:27:46 pm
Took a measly 5 pips profit on the GU short for a total of only 35 pips for the day. Stinks but we take what the market offers and live to trade another day.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 17, 2017, 06:40:13 pm
Week 11 Wrap up:

Start: $143.60
Goal: $148.49
Attained: $158.70

I hope everyone had fun this week. Lots of movement, lots of pips for the taking. I had a number of flips on the UCAD short and one solid long on the EURNZD, leaving me $15.10 ahead, almost 11%.

What I did poorly: I think my only rash decision was to try to short GBPUSD after that second pop on Thursday, expecting a retrace that never came. I had a couple opportunities to get out even but didnít take them and, in the end, had to write off a couple bucks. Trying to ride the pull back after a news pop and winding up eating a totally unnecessary loss is an old habit of mine that I need to break. Like the high fastball in "A league of Their Own"--can't hit 'em, can't lay off 'em.

What I did well: This was a good week for not giving in to greed and reaping the benefits of discipline. I waited for EURNZD to come to me instead of getting antsy and entering too soon. Then I exited when I had a nice profit. It was pure luck that my exit was near the top and it pulled back all the way to my entry while I sat on the sidelines counting all the pennies I wasn't giving back. But still, I consider that an example of luck favoring the prepared.

Back by the Sunday open with a look to next week.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 18, 2017, 07:17:10 am
AUDUSD HOURLY chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 18, 2017, 07:17:50 am
AUDUSD WEEKLY
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 18, 2017, 07:39:31 am
Does anyone know if Oanda allows trading in gold and silver?  Thought it did but can't find it on my phone app.

Edit: Never mind I got my answer -- "Precious metal trading is no longer offered to US based clients due to regulatory requirements."  That's unfortunate.  Wouldn't be surprised if they ban Forex trading in US eventually.  So many stupid regulations in this country lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 18, 2017, 08:13:48 am
Hey FOREX, looks like we are approaching a long on AUDUSD. Dollar weakness fits with what I'm seeing on some other pairs.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 18, 2017, 09:11:05 am
ACAD Daily Chart with Key Levels

Just a quick glimpse at the major brick wall that is sitting on top of ACAD's head right here. First 3 charts show the measurements mathematically. The 1.272, 1.414, and 1.618 are all used in measurement of C wave extensions in Elliott Wave theory in case anyone is wondering.

The final chart shows those same 3 levels all put together. They all equal a lot of resistance.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 18, 2017, 09:17:17 am
Ooops...looks like I might be on the odd train out but I gotta go with AU bear calls here instead of a bullish setup. As always, I might be a bit early but I did short AU Friday.

Here's the weekly chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 18, 2017, 01:19:57 pm
Well I got my lousy 2% for the week.    Seems every time I add to a position on Acad, its at a place where price doesn't break down below it allowing me to take some profit each week while leaving a long term short open.    So I have three shorts going on it.

Pennies......I am totally on the same page with you on the daily chart and your wave count, BUT what bothers me is the weekly chart and fact that its another 250 odd pips up to the 88.6 fib and fresh price action zone on the larger wave down set from march 2013 to weekly lows in the .916 area.    That and the FE 100 on the weekly chart is nearly 450 odd pips above at 1.07.   

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 18, 2017, 01:20:11 pm
Hi pennies. In forex's chart, I'm looking at that resistance line as the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders. You think the line will hold? That's basically what it comes down to on long vs. short.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 18, 2017, 01:26:16 pm
No way to know for sure Kermit. All I do is count the TDI waves and try to correlate them with associated patterns in crossover pairs. When I see the same patterns stacking up on several correlations, I just pull the trigger. Chart patterns such as H&S and IHS are only accurate about half the time when taken as a stand alone technique so I don't let them sway me unless I can correlate them using other techniques.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 18, 2017, 01:28:00 pm
Hey FOREX, looks like we are approaching a long on AUDUSD. Dollar weakness fits with what I'm seeing on some other pairs.

Yep, I agree. Looking to potentially go long Sunday night. Gonna see how it looks late Sunday/early Monday.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 18, 2017, 01:36:42 pm
Qui, you worry too much...lol! I base my entire trading system on a strict set of rules that I follow. When the pairs line up with the rules I have, I take the trade. Worrying about the "what ifs" will do nothing but scare you out of trading entirely. As long as you have calculated your risk correctly and followed all of the rules for whatever trading system you follow, you take the trade and you wait. It either works or it doesn't. Nothing is 100%. Every trade should be taken with an expectation that you're going to lose...always. The first question you should always pose when getting ready to take a trade is not "how much am I going to make". The correct question should always be "how much am I willing to lose". If you know what you're willing to lose, then you take the trade and, if it goes against you and it hits the maximum amount you're willing to lose, you take the loss and move on. And pips have nothing to do with it because one pip has no value until it is assigned a value dictated by a number of units traded. The only thing that matters in this whole game is percentages. Dollars and cents and pips mean nothing. If you switch to looking at everything based on nothing but percentages, you will become a far better trader. 😀

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 18, 2017, 01:57:15 pm
Well Mr. Pennies........I am using percentages as per your own instructions and that is why I am risking only 2% on my initial entry.    I increase it to 3% the next add and 4% the next entry.     Adding isn't the problem, it's adding at the exact right place.      And pips do matter as they are a unit of measure to count gains or losses depending on the risk taken.    You are right about the what-ifs being a problem for me, but I can look back at the chart where price action can go for weeks on end only retracing 20 pips after moving up 2000 pips so all those that were looking for a 38.6 fib pullback after 5 waves up find that the price only began to move up another 5 waves to leave them margined out if they were counting on that reversal after the 5 waves up.   Alas, I will survive because my risk isn't too high, but I'm sure dang tired of adding at the wrong place and waiting for weeks on after our initial entries before finally seeing the reversal and new breakout occur.    >:(     All is good though, not how I'd like it.     ::)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 18, 2017, 02:37:21 pm
Week 12 Post

Start: $158.70
Goal: $163.83

Looking at this week’s charts:

I’m focusing on three pairs: EN, EU, and NU

EN: My suspicion is, this will move sideways a bit while it recharges its batteries after the recent run up. (Thanks pennies—I made a relative fortune on EN and I wouldn’t even have looked at it absent your heads-up.) But that sideways movement looks to be a 200-pips window between about 1.5240 and 1.5450. So lots of money to be made while it waits. I will set a long at 1.5250 with a target of 1.5425. And keep doing it till something different happens.

EU: This is another one that looks to go sideways for a bit before moving up. I probably won’t play it, but if I did, it would be on the long side with an entry around 1.06.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 18, 2017, 02:38:13 pm
It would't let me add a 5th chart to a single post. Do people care if a post has a bunch of charts? Does it affect loading times?

NU: Possible IHS on the daily chart, good for a long. The 4-HR not so much, at least not yet, and then the 1-HR looks long. The daily chart has a descending broadening wedge, which suggests a topside breakout eventually, but this is the daily chart so that could be weeks or months from now. There’s plenty of time for Pennies to hit his target before that happens, so I will watch this one for a day or so to see if it commits to a direction in the shorter term.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 18, 2017, 03:40:35 pm
I never have tried 5 charts on a single post Kermit. Loading time didn't seem to be affected when I posted 4 earlier. The software that drives our forum might be limited to 4. I'll check the settings this weekend and see if that option can be modified.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 18, 2017, 03:44:53 pm
Hey Kermit, I forgot to mention this. I dont think the NU expanding diagonal is a diagonal at all. The longer term charts are showing a massive breakdown coming on NU to below the previous lows. Thats why I moved my downside target to .60 instead of .68. That type of breakdown also jives with EZ moving up to my 1.72 topside target.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 18, 2017, 06:11:21 pm
Thanks pennies, I'll keep an eye out for that.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 19, 2017, 12:20:43 am
Kermit-post all the charts they will let you -no problem on my end-doesn't slow anything down
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 19, 2017, 08:30:15 am
Thanks jav. I'd prefer not to worry about that while posting. It's nice to know I don't have to.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 19, 2017, 10:59:13 am
Hi pennies. In forex's chart, I'm looking at that resistance line as the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders. You think the line will hold? That's basically what it comes down to on long vs. short.


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Here ya go Kermit. This is the AU weekly chart with a full view all the way back to 2007. It's a line chart, which removes all of the noise. The TDI wave count already told me what I needed to know but this is just another visual representation to help confirm what the TDI is telling me.

Also, there's the form of the TDI itself. I learned a long time ago that a true IHS pattern has to show higher highs on the TDI at each of the 3 junctions for the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder. Also, those 3 points on the TDI should be able to be connected with a single trend line right across the low peaks. I've included a sample chart also of the AUD/NZD weekly chart.

When you look at the TDI for AU, however, you notice that the prior leg down caused the TDI to break down and produce a lower low than the previous push down. That's where I have the TDI wave count 3 labeled. If it was going to be a true IHS, the TDI would have stayed at a higher low than where TDI wave 1 is labeled.

So all in all, I stand by my bearish call on AU. I try to take in as many different views as I can on the charts when I'm laying out my trading strategy. The TDI wave count does very well, but, like most methods, I always try to use other areas to either confirm or deny what I see. The line chart method is just one example of that type of decision making process.

Of course, I could be wrong...my wife tells me I'm wrong all the time...LOL!

AU weekly chart first followed by AUD/NZD sample IHS chart with confirmation on the TDI.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 19, 2017, 11:05:15 am
Oil Weekly Chart

I might still be wrong on oil here but so far, its still playing out a bullish breakout setup. I don't have the TDI on this one to confirm the pattern but most any oscillator will do when trying to confirm these things...RSI, Stoch, MACD...they all pretty much work the same.

Of course, the true test will be the break above the IHS neckline pattern.

So for now, I'm still calling for a bullish breakout on oil.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 19, 2017, 03:32:01 pm
Pennies i have really been watching your video on the TDI count-are you going to domore videos on that subject--and when you have time would you give me an updated hour chart with the counts on AUD/USD
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 19, 2017, 04:51:36 pm
probably going to be slow with Japanese holiday today
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 19, 2017, 05:26:15 pm
Vernal Equinox Day?!? WTH kind of holiday is that?


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 19, 2017, 07:26:20 pm
Pennies......what qualifies a number 1 wave on your TDI wave counting method?       I thought that wave number 1 was marked on the next wave following a lowermost or a topmost wave in the TDI window.     

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 19, 2017, 08:05:32 pm
Pennies......what qualifies a number 1 wave on your TDI wave counting method?       I thought that wave number 1 was marked on the next wave following a lowermost or a topmost wave in the TDI window.   

I made these diagrams quite a while back and I kept them to demonstrate where to begin counting the waves, Qui. Here's both diagrams. They demonstrate how to start the count and how to draw the channels.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 19, 2017, 08:07:50 pm
It just gets to be mind boggling sometimes pennies.    I'll study your most recent post and see if I can't relearn or maybe just learn how to lay the count out..    Sheesh...

Thank you.     :-[
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 19, 2017, 08:09:33 pm
Pennies i have really been watching your video on the TDI count-are you going to domore videos on that subject--and when you have time would you give me an updated hour chart with the counts on AUD/USD

Hey Jav. I definitely plan on making more videos if I can get some time. My brother-in-law is running me 60 + hours a week at his store. My wife makes me stay with him...lord knows I'd rather be back here trading all the time...LOL! But my time at the store will be coming to an end soon and I'll have all the time I need to make more training videos.

I've kind of gotten away from doing smaller time frame wave counts because they can get muddy. So I pretty much stick to the larger time frames now because they're much more clear. I only watch the smaller time frames out of curiosity to see how the final movements play out. But I don't spend a lot of time mapping out the waves on anything less than a 4 hour time frame now and sometimes not even that low. Daily, weekly, and monthly give me pretty much all I need.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 19, 2017, 08:11:07 pm
It just gets to be mind boggling sometimes pennies.    I'll study your most recent post and see if I can't relearn or maybe just learn how to lay the count out..    Sheesh...

Thank you.     :-[

Yes, it can get confusing sometimes. The easiest way to count waves is to remember the basic rules list. You can recognize TDI waves also by how price action behaves. Here's the rules list again for counting TDI waves...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 19, 2017, 08:18:38 pm
It gets dicey counting waves  for me because as with price action, seldom is there a clear 1 thru 5 waves up in any TDI wave from the lowest 32 or sub 32 level to the highest 68 or above before a new identifiable opposing wave has set in.   

You can see an ABC wave count in a major wave up or down or you can see several to as many as a dozen minor waves so it's tough to nail down the final minor wave before the next major wave begins.   And these waves can be side trending for even more than a dozen at times.   

So if you focus on topmost and bottommost waves then it's still tough to identify a wave 1 because of all the possible wave movement.     Side trending while price action is moving up OR down.    TDI waves moving up while price action is moving the same OR the opposing direction.   

It helps to draw trend lines across those TDI waves but it isn't a sure thing all the time for really nailing down a wave count, much less price action.   

 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 19, 2017, 08:20:49 pm
I'll check in with you all later.    Thanks pennies.    You are much better at this game than I.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 19, 2017, 08:21:21 pm
Its actually easier than you think Qui. Take any long term chart and look for the highest high and the lowest low you can find. Those peaks at the highest high or the lowest low are almost always TDI wave 2 movements. Start there and lay out the count from that point. If the highest high in price is a TDI wave 2, then the previous higher TDI peak is Wave 1. What follows after Wave 2 must be a Wave 3. Once you have those laid out, the rest is easy. Don't spend too much time on the lower time frames because they do get dicey. Concentrate on monthly, weekly, and daily charts. Get the counts there and don't worry about the rest.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 19, 2017, 08:25:40 pm
Time for the flippers. Shorted ACAD at 1.0282.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 19, 2017, 08:31:44 pm
I just love it when a trade gets crowded...LOL! Lets see if all the analysts and the money managers are right or, as I suspect, very, very wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-19/bullish-bets-on-crude-cut-by-most-ever-as-price-falls-below-50
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 19, 2017, 09:04:32 pm
tell you if i had watching the weekly chart-i wouldn't be stuck holding two short trades-
look at this AUD/USD WEEKLY-never looked at it til you mentioned weekly chart-boy that would have kept me out of a stupid trade-yep been holding a couple of months-it better give me back my money lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 19, 2017, 09:07:16 pm
Turned right on the weekly old support--also overlook my counts -sure i'm wrong lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 20, 2017, 12:05:24 am
Pennies thinking i'm understanding somewhat-i went to the AUD/CHF monthly-telling myself lol it has took months to get here--i'm 71 years old --freaked me out-but realized you were starting at the month-then week to see what it has been doing then going down to daily and 4 hour to watch it even closer-say month  and week show downside then hone in on a trade only short on that certain time frame you are trading-i'm seeing the higher time frames KNOW ALL-tks for the knowledge--looking forward to other videos
and i guess you can tell by my
underwater post-I HAVE SUCH PATIENCE when i'm waiting for the pair to give me my money back  LOL
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 20, 2017, 02:41:04 am
All of the mathematical extensions on Acad are now satisfied. Now the waiting game begins for the catalyst.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 20, 2017, 03:20:41 am
ACAD Daily Chart with TDI Wave Count

Nothing has changed here. Just updated a couple of things. Regardless of what final high it makes in this movement, it is deadly bearish.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 20, 2017, 09:38:51 am
Market is creepy crawly today...no volume. Guess they're waiting on something.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 20, 2017, 12:58:11 pm
At least GBPUSD is kindly giving me another chance to get out even.

Am I smart enough to take it?

Reply hazy try again
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 20, 2017, 01:11:33 pm
Lol! Sounds like you need to shake the Magic 8 ball harder Kermit.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 20, 2017, 05:04:13 pm
ACAD Daily and 4 Hour Line Charts

Line charts take out all the noise so we can see what's really happening. Rising wedge with a total of 5 hits. It's very easy to see on the ACAD 4 hour chart I have here.

The ACAD daily chart shows the TDI wave count currently.

Still bearish...that's my story and I'm sticking to it...LOL! At least till the chart tells me otherwise.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 20, 2017, 06:40:05 pm
Interesting article on rookie currency traders these institutions are using now. Apparently, a lot of these guys are very inexperienced.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-20/rookie-currency-traders-are-causing-trouble-at-crucial-moments
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 21, 2017, 05:15:24 am
I want you guys to watch something. This will substantiate what I've been saying all along about news and reports being molded and used to quantify currency movements. The technical pattern on GU already says its gonna move up hard over the next few weeks. Watch the analysts and commentators try to fit the reports in with the rally.

It happens every time. The bottom line is this...what moves these pairs is speculation...only the institutions have the power to shove these things around. The news that they pin the moves on has nothing to do with it.

ROFL! Its really just too funny.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-21/pound-gains-after-inflation-tops-bank-of-england-target-chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 21, 2017, 07:46:22 am
Long EA t 1.39734, TP set for 1.4290. Probably early here...
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 21, 2017, 11:44:33 am
Long EA t 1.39734, TP set for 1.4290. Probably early here...

I'm long on that one too. Looks good.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 21, 2017, 11:50:16 am
Yep, so far so good Forex trader. I cant rule out a dip back to the 1.37's but the overall TDI count is good for a trip to 1.43 and maybe 1.44 later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 21, 2017, 03:59:19 pm
Yep, so far so good Forex trader. I cant rule out a dip back to the 1.37's but the overall TDI count is good for a trip to 1.43 and maybe 1.44 later.

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I'm hoping there's no dip that low. I'll bail, if so.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 21, 2017, 04:10:02 pm
Its a daily chart setup for me so I dont mind if it does retrace. That just gives me another chance to add another trade and make even more money. 😄

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 21, 2017, 04:30:58 pm
Its a daily chart setup for me so I dont mind if it does retrace. That just gives me another chance to add another trade and make even more money. 😄

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Yeah I went off the 4hr/daily chart as well.  I just don't hold losers very long.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 21, 2017, 11:59:18 pm
Long EG at 0.86571. Hourly and 4 hour chart shows a rally coming based on the TDI count I'm seeing right now.

TP set for 0.89
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 22, 2017, 05:34:40 am
Long EG at 0.86571. Hourly and 4 hour chart shows a rally coming based on the TDI count I'm seeing right now.

TP set for 0.89

I've been watching that one. bull flag setting up on daily as well.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 22, 2017, 05:49:00 am
Dxy head and shoulders still forming.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 05:55:28 am
Yes I saw the same pattern Forex Trader. The TDI pattern says we'll probably see a pop and then one more quick drop before it takes off but I'm just gonna hold through the process to catch the bigger swing later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 22, 2017, 08:09:54 am
Closed euraud long and trying a short here.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 08:26:28 am
I took profit at 119 pips in the green as well Forex Trader. I'm gonna see if we get a 71.6 fib retrace for a TDI wave 4 and hit it again long but I'm not willing to short it just yet.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 08:28:39 am
Closed my AU short for 31.6 pips. Gonna wait for a retrace before popping it again.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 08:42:29 am
Set a limit short order to trigger on Ucad if it gets back to 1.3450.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 09:16:37 am
Gonna go ahead and just set my UJ shorts to TP at 108 even instead of waitingbfor the larger drop later. We should hit 108 very easily.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 11:14:18 am
Theres the pop and drop setup I was looking for on EG. Could still dip back for one more quick final low before taking off north.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 11:19:47 am
Time to start shorts on GU. First one entered here at 1.2470. And yes, I'm probably early...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 11:24:25 am
Almost forgot. TP on the GU short set for 1.17.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 04:29:51 pm
ACAD 4 Hour Line Chart Update

Back to the bottom trend line in the rising wedge. Now we wait to see if things get interesting. Once the channel breaks to the downside, its all overwith for the bulls. Normally, there's a dead cat bounce during the final movement right at the trendline one last time but it seldom makes a new high. After a retest near the highs, it usually comes crashing down right through the channel bottom.

I'm patient...time will tell.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 04:43:42 pm
Leaving a limit order to go long on EA if it pulls back to 1.3950 with TP set at 1.4290.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 22, 2017, 07:32:55 pm
I kept my GU short, which is now about 120 pips to the bad. But I added at 1.2480. Attached is the daily. It's been channeling for a while, at least since the flash crash (which shows on this chart as 1.19, though on other charts it went much lower).

Anyway, it's making lower highs. The TDI is equal to the last peak (marked by that red line), but the price is about  200 pips lower. It should drop starting somewhere around now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 09:06:30 pm
EG 4 Hour Chart

This is absolutely one of my favorite TDI patterns. It goes hand in hand with the TDI wave count. Basically, the TDI itself forms an IHS pattern. During a downtrend, each of the 3 TDI IHS peaks results in a lower low in price. What happens afterward is another shot north on price action which results in the TDI breaking above the neckline. Price will then retrace again as the TDI retests the neckline, often resulting in one final low in price. Once the TDI begins curling back up off the neckline, you can go long and expect a really nice pop in price.

The move up on the TDI to break above the neckline should begin tomorrow. I added another long position and I'll probably close them at some point and wait for the TDI to retrace back to it's neckline and then hit it again.

Its like an ATM machine when these patterns set up.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 22, 2017, 09:08:34 pm
I kept my GU short, which is now about 120 pips to the bad. But I added at 1.2480. Attached is the daily. It's been channeling for a while, at least since the flash crash (which shows on this chart as 1.19, though on other charts it went much lower).

Anyway, it's making lower highs. The TDI is equal to the last peak (marked by that red line), but the price is about  200 pips lower. It should drop starting somewhere around now.

GBP's retail sales number should be very important tomorrow morning.  a good number and GBP pairs should pop pretty hard imo.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 22, 2017, 09:13:08 pm
I'm going to hazard a guess based on just the current technicals and say that GU tanks on the news whether the numbers are good or bad. But I've been known to be wrong...lol! Headed to bed...night gang.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 22, 2017, 09:23:52 pm
I'm going to hazard a guess based on just the current technicals and say that GU tanks on the news whether the numbers are good or bad. But I've been known to be wrong...lol! Headed to bed...night gang.

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Anything's possible.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 23, 2017, 03:33:47 am
Cancelled the EA long position limit order I had. Looks like it might just go ahead all the way to 1.43 after all. Best to just take the trade and wait it out instead of flipping it...oh well...always another trade waiting. Still waiting to see if UCAD gets back up to my 1.3450 short target.

Gone for the day...later gang.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 23, 2017, 04:37:10 am
Looks like they're gonna go ahead and finish out the TA pattern on GU to the 1.26 level after all...excellent! Another opp to add a short and wait for the bigger rollover later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 23, 2017, 05:08:32 am
GU Daily Chart

Still the same long term setup from an earlier post. Regardless of what it does here near term, it's gonna die one more time and is very likely to make a new daily low. But once it does, we need to look at going long and just holding it for a very long time as it begins a topside rally that could easily last for months. For now, shorts are in play from here up to the 1.2650 level.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 23, 2017, 05:10:49 am
Went ahead and cancelled the limit order to short UCAD at 1.3450 also. I'd rather just wait and see how it plays out. ACAD has solidly broken it's channel line to the downside so we'll wait and see how it plays out.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 23, 2017, 06:34:33 am
GU had a nice pop from that news, but it seems to have run out of steam. As usual, wait a couple hours. If it stays up above 1.25, then best to step aside and let it find its top. But if it returns to the starting point, then expect more downside sooner rather than later.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 23, 2017, 07:17:04 am
The 4 hour EG chart is still primed to pop near term Kermit so I can only assume that GU is gonna have to drop back to make that happen. But after that, I can still see GU moving up one more time to complete the final ABC cycle around 1.2650 before tanking hard.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 23, 2017, 07:49:54 am
I don't need it to go to 1.17 just yet. I'm happy if it breaks 1.24. EURNZD has shown less volatility this week than I'd hoped, so the success of my week turns on a medium-sized drop in GBPUSD in the next 30 hours. It's not showing much strength at the moment, it's just sitting there.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 23, 2017, 08:49:44 am
Yep the market got quiet. And since the EG chart I'm looking at is a 4 hour chart, it could be next week before it pops.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 23, 2017, 01:18:49 pm
Pennies since you pointed out the H and SH patterns on EG -got me looking at other 4 hour charts that i could have caught some pips spotting the TDI pattern
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 23, 2017, 01:19:39 pm
another
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 23, 2017, 01:20:18 pm
another
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 23, 2017, 02:12:04 pm
Yep they show up a lot Jav...I've seen em on all time frames at one time or another.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 23, 2017, 07:30:46 pm
well i'll start paying more attention now-Thanks pennies for the heads up-will be easier on me than counting the waves
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 23, 2017, 07:47:22 pm
The EG TDI IHS pattern is no longer valid. It appears to be in a larger TDI wave 4 retrace on the 4 hour chart so it's all still good for topside later. Just have to wait a bit.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 24, 2017, 04:23:57 pm
Week 12 Wrap up:

Start: $158.70
Goal: $163.83
Attained: $158.95

WellÖit was a green week. I gained $0.25. For a whopping 0.0016%

I had 2 nice gains on an ACAD short and an EN long, but gave it all back through some very poor handling of a GU short I shouldnít have entered in the first place.

What I did poorly: Entering GU short without a plan and not bailing when I had the chance to get out without a loss (any of the three times I had the chance). Now I am sitting on a position larger than Iíd like deeper red than Iíd like waiting to be rescued by events outside my control.

What I did well: Not much. I closed ACAD and EN both when I had a nice gain and thought it would go against me, thatís smart locking in the gains, but both went quite a bit further after I exited and I would have done better sticking with the original plan. That so often is the caseóthe plan I go in with plays out and any changes I make on the fly cost me. Not always, but more often than not.

I was due for a bad week and if this is it, I should count myself lucky, but I wasnít disciplined.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 24, 2017, 08:11:12 pm
Week 13 Post

Start: $158.95
Goal: $164.34

Looking at this week’s charts:

GU: I’m already bogged down in GU and hope my reading is not too affected by my desire to win in the end, but I see a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart and a bearish 1HR as well (4HR has no direction). Looking at the pattern, I expect a drop to about 1.22.

The Article 50 trigger is expected at the end of the week and I expect a GU short squeeze in the weeks after the announcement so the drop will probably be before or in the moments after—that is, this week. Ideally, I will be out before the announcement. Then reenter long sometime after.

EURNZD: The other pair I’m watching is EURNZD. I am not in this one at the moment so hope to be thinking more clearly. I see some downward pressure in the 4HR but the daily is turning up and it may be readying the next move north after a couple-week pause to recharge its batteries.

I have a long sitting at 1.5240 and will keep an eye on it for signs the pullback is done.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 24, 2017, 08:21:07 pm
And it was another stellar week for me too kermit with yet another 2% gains.    I entered Acad with pennies at the 76.8 fib and then added one position 50 pips above.     Then waited patiently to add again and did so at a near perfect point this week just 15 pips before price reversed to end the week 120 odd pips above last weeks close; but I took profits way too soon on it and so I sit with small gains and a little to show for my time as usual.   

It's hard for me to see Acad really turning over but I'm holding my two early entries in hopes of not having to wait a few more weeks before it does finally pull back.     If it does turn around, I will be fighting the urge to TP asap just to lock in the gains.    Gotta learn to have patience on both sides of the trade.

Stellar was a sarcastic adjective to describe my gains btw.     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 25, 2017, 07:11:22 am
Good morning Qui. If 2% is your goal and you hit it, then that's a good week. It's hard not to mourn what might have been, but, for me at least, learning to measure success by my goal rather than by "not leaving pips on the table" is important. In Forex, there are nearly unlimited pips on the table and you will always, no matter what, leave most of them there. Trying to grab them all leads to disaster.

Another thing I see in your post that I struggle with too is letting profits ride. I let losses ride all the time, but the emotions play out differently with gains. The advice is don't give back gains, all green is good, etc., and that's true, but leaving too soon is frustrating. For me, the biggest risk for an early exit is getting in too early. When I'm stuck red for a while (and especially when very red), as soon as it goes green, I breathe a sigh of relief, take the money and run. So I try not to get in early. I manage the gains better if my thinking isn't already poisoned by stress over an extended period of loss.

Anyway, congratulations on the 2%. Now let's go do it again!


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 25, 2017, 03:07:01 pm
Actually kermit, my desire is 10% but my goal is anything 2% or above.    I just find anything less than 2% so demoralizing that I don't want to trade forex at all if that's the case for weekly averages.     Even 2% comes really close to making me want to call it quits.    But it would get me well ahead if I live another ten years.     Ten percent gains will put me where I want to be in less than half a decade obviously, and I might even live long enough to spend some of it if that were the case.   

But, for me to make the 10% average weekly gains I would have to take out original entry trade of 10% risk vice my current 2% risk and then add at even higher risk amounts along the way.     In doing so, a 500 pip or greater move against me in a single day, or a two week period, or whatever period when I'm on the wrong side of the trade would totally blow my account.   

We are always early in our trades here, and now that we are trading off the TDI wave count consideration, then as with any trade indicator or method, price is going where it's going until it reverses but hopefully we at least have rightly identified the 4th wave so we can begin a much safer long wave 5 position direction to trade with.    I'm not able to nail down a definitive 4th wave, much less where it's going to end for sure though, so I can never get comfortable with whatever position direction pennies is convinced of.   

Ten percent is scary risk for me when I see days where price has gone for weeks without enough pullback along the way to reduce risk, much less get back to break even.    Acad spent weeks gapping up one week after another in feb 1993 through jan 1995.    That's two years of mostly weekly gap ups.    And, that was over 20,000 pips.    If I'm not on the right side of that weekly trade while expecting but never seeing pullback at the 38.6 or 50. or 71.6 or 78.6 weekly fib levels, or if I didn't play it right on any intraweek pullbacks that might have reduced losses or more unlikely brought me back to even, then account is blown and if I opened a new account and traded the same short trade thinking that Acad had to reverse, I'd still be in deep doo doo if I didn't trade it right.    It's those 800 to 100 pip daily moves too that keep me too nervous to get comfortable with risk more than 2% on early entries.     If I had absolute trust in the TDI wave counting, then there might be opportunity where price reverses in the direction I am trading but I'm looking at the TDI indicator for the weekly Acad chart  and I see  nothing definitive there, any more than I get any solid, or more importantly, absolute reversal triggers.   

It's one fib or its another before price reverses.     It's one TDI wave or its another before the longer price action wave reversal occurs and proves out the most recent TDI wave.    All the other waves were just incidental.     It's either 5 waves, or it's 6 or 7 waves that the "experts" can supposedly divide up into smaller precise waves that supposedly nail down the 5 true waves through other questionable 5 to 7 waves along with the a,b,c and a,b,c,d,e waves.    Putting as many odds in your favor as possible isn't a good reason for assumption of trend reversal for me.    So I assume I'm wrong and plan to add, and leave room for massive price action against me while still surviving before price eventually makes its way back to break even and hopefully profit for me.     
   
And you are right.   Emotions are different when holding a profitable running trade.    If you don't take the money and run, then you risk giving up all your gains and incurring losses if you have the mindset to set stop loss triggers.    If you do take the money, then you risk missing out on far greater gains.    It's tough emotionally either way, but for me it's more demoralizing to not lock in the required 2% minimum gains I need.    So.....at times, I will go ahead and take profit then reenter immediately and let it go against me as it will with expectation of adding later or watching as price continues to move in my favor allowing me my weekly gains, plus some possibly.   But I refuse to lock in losses.   My mindset is that the only time I will close out a position for a loss is when I close my account to cash out and in doing so close out a losing trade in event I didn't have time to wait it out to profit.    The only other time I will do it is in the event I can return my open trades to break even through taking profits on my added double down or triple down positions while closing out at a loss my original positions ONLY at the point where I've already made my 2% or greater for the week.     Then I can still claim gains and yet rid myself of the risk of blowing my account.     

Nuff of those ramblings.   I hope we both get our 10% or better next week but I have a feeling I'll be scratching for my 2% as per usual.     :(
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on March 25, 2017, 11:24:38 pm
Actually kermit, my desire is 10% but my goal is anything 2% or above.    I just find anything less than 2% so demoralizing that I don't want to trade forex at all if that's the case for weekly averages.     Even 2% comes really close to making me want to call it quits.    But it would get me well ahead if I live another ten years.     Ten percent gains will put me where I want to be in less than half a decade obviously, and I might even live long enough to spend some of it if that were the case.   

But, for me to make the 10% average weekly gains I would have to take out original entry trade of 10% risk vice my current 2% risk and then add at even higher risk amounts along the way.     In doing so, a 500 pip or greater move against me in a single day, or a two week period, or whatever period when I'm on the wrong side of the trade would totally blow my account.   

We are always early in our trades here, and now that we are trading off the TDI wave count consideration, then as with any trade indicator or method, price is going where it's going until it reverses but hopefully we at least have rightly identified the 4th wave so we can begin a much safer long wave 5 position direction to trade with.    I'm not able to nail down a definitive 4th wave, much less where it's going to end for sure though, so I can never get comfortable with whatever position direction pennies is convinced of.   

Ten percent is scary risk for me when I see days where price has gone for weeks without enough pullback along the way to reduce risk, much less get back to break even.    Acad spent weeks gapping up one week after another in feb 1993 through jan 1995.    That's two years of mostly weekly gap ups.    And, that was over 20,000 pips.    If I'm not on the right side of that weekly trade while expecting but never seeing pullback at the 38.6 or 50. or 71.6 or 78.6 weekly fib levels, or if I didn't play it right on any intraweek pullbacks that might have reduced losses or more unlikely brought me back to even, then account is blown and if I opened a new account and traded the same short trade thinking that Acad had to reverse, I'd still be in deep doo doo if I didn't trade it right.    It's those 800 to 100 pip daily moves too that keep me too nervous to get comfortable with risk more than 2% on early entries.     If I had absolute trust in the TDI wave counting, then there might be opportunity where price reverses in the direction I am trading but I'm looking at the TDI indicator for the weekly Acad chart  and I see  nothing definitive there, any more than I get any solid, or more importantly, absolute reversal triggers.   

It's one fib or its another before price reverses.     It's one TDI wave or its another before the longer price action wave reversal occurs and proves out the most recent TDI wave.    All the other waves were just incidental.     It's either 5 waves, or it's 6 or 7 waves that the "experts" can supposedly divide up into smaller precise waves that supposedly nail down the 5 true waves through other questionable 5 to 7 waves along with the a,b,c and a,b,c,d,e waves.    Putting as many odds in your favor as possible isn't a good reason for assumption of trend reversal for me.    So I assume I'm wrong and plan to add, and leave room for massive price action against me while still surviving before price eventually makes its way back to break even and hopefully profit for me.     
   
And you are right.   Emotions are different when holding a profitable running trade.    If you don't take the money and run, then you risk giving up all your gains and incurring losses if you have the mindset to set stop loss triggers.    If you do take the money, then you risk missing out on far greater gains.    It's tough emotionally either way, but for me it's more demoralizing to not lock in the required 2% minimum gains I need.    So.....at times, I will go ahead and take profit then reenter immediately and let it go against me as it will with expectation of adding later or watching as price continues to move in my favor allowing me my weekly gains, plus some possibly.   But I refuse to lock in losses.   My mindset is that the only time I will close out a position for a loss is when I close my account to cash out and in doing so close out a losing trade in event I didn't have time to wait it out to profit.    The only other time I will do it is in the event I can return my open trades to break even through taking profits on my added double down or triple down positions while closing out at a loss my original positions ONLY at the point where I've already made my 2% or greater for the week.     Then I can still claim gains and yet rid myself of the risk of blowing my account.     

Nuff of those ramblings.   I hope we both get our 10% or better next week but I have a feeling I'll be scratching for my 2% as per usual.     :(

Sounds like you try to use Elliot wave but don't trust it at all lol.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 26, 2017, 12:07:01 am
ok Guys -Gals whoever watch this guy-these two videos are really good
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cq3E6jGXL4&t=528s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8qOq1Yf_50&t=782s

in the morning i will put up a couple of charts i'm looking at via his info

OK i'll put up the AUD/CAD chart via my understanding of what he WAITS for--THE VALUE AREA-which it seems to be there
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 26, 2017, 05:03:06 am
Hi Qui, that's a lot to chew on. Are you having fun? Because if it's not fun, life's too short.

Personally, I love this stuff. I see charts as a coded message, a logic puzzle I want to solve. The pips are how I keep score. Through years of losing, I wanted to get to the point where I could consistently make money, but if the money were all it was about, I would have given up. The program I'm on now has the benefit of getting me rich in a relatively short period of time, but the day to day motivation is developing the trading discipline that I've identified as the last missing puzzle piece. I'm doing it because I want to see if I can.




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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 26, 2017, 05:17:06 am
 Pennies' approach is to take a position as soon as the pattern is confirmed and then let it ride until it plays out. But Pennies doesn't have weekly goals. It's no great shakes for him to see no gains for a while. For my goals, I need to keep score and I can't spend a lot of time mucking about with a trade that's not working. I don't see why, once the pattern is confirmed, you can't just keep an eye on it and take your position after the turn around. Sometimes you'll do better entering right away, sometimes you'll do better waiting. In the end, waiting is less stress.

You should also experiment with taking losses. There's an attitude among many in the pink sheets that you haven't lost until you sell. That's bunk. You've lost when you're down. There's always money to be made somewhere and there is no reason you have to get the pips back from the pair that took them. That's emotional attachment and it leads to bad decisions.

But most of all, are you having fun? If you are, awesome! You can build a winning style around the parts you love. If not, what's your favourite part (other than banking profits)? What attracts you to Forex over the million other things you could be doing? Try to build a trading style around that.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 26, 2017, 05:31:47 am
Relative to taking losses, I hate taking losses too, even small ones, and struggle with this "you've lost it when your down" philosophy. My GU shorts are still open, but I've logged the losses in my weekly numbers. If I do nothing this week other than get out anywhere close to even, I'll still show a big gain in the account. That's cheating, and a failure of my goal to not carry trades into the weekend, but I prefer to think of it as baby steps.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 26, 2017, 06:45:36 am

OK i'll put up the AUD/CAD chart via my understanding of what he WAITS for--THE VALUE AREA-which it seems to be there

Morning Jav. When laying out the general SR system that the guy on those videos uses, be sure to always go out to the longer time frame to double check your findings. If you apply the same trading method he uses to the weekly ACAD chart, you'll see that while the smaller time frames like the one you posted may produce some small bounces, the larger weekly time frame shows that his area of value is calling for ACAD shorts right here.

Here's his basic SR method broken down on an ACAD weekly line chart. ACAD is back at the top red line which, based on solely his trading system, says to short ACAD rather than try to look for longs.

All in all, his system is fine but I would recommend trying to use additional methods to confirm or deny an entry. I've found over the years that using one method, whether it be Elliott Wave, moving averages, Ichimoku Cloud, alert systems, etc, are all ok in and of themselves but when used as a single method, tend to give too many losses. Building a tool kit that uses multiple methods of confirmation has proven to be the most reliable, at least for me.

Once you have that tool kit in place, you'll find that its probably different for everyone but that's ok. Each trader has a style all their own and there are indeed many different ways to skin the cat, so to speak. But one thing I can definitely say that would benefit any trader is to be sure to look at as many different time frames for that pair as possible and analyze it using a top down method, applying whatever tool kit you like to use. That way, you won't be in a position where you're still trying to follow a trend when it may very well be at the end of the run and get caught in a reversal that can get you into some deep red in the account.

ACAD Weekly Chart with basic SR levels drawn in...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 26, 2017, 10:44:13 am
Relative to taking losses, I hate taking losses too, even small ones, and struggle with this "you've lost it when your down" philosophy. My GU shorts are still open, but I've logged the losses in my weekly numbers. If I do nothing this week other than get out anywhere close to even, I'll still show a big gain in the account. That's cheating, and a failure of my goal to not carry trades into the weekend, but I prefer to think of it as baby steps.


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For me it's fun like playing the "vegas slots" but without the assumption of guaranteed losses that the slots offer in the long run.   Yes there are many slot machines with all the different visual displays and interactions, but I'm referring to the "gaming" aspect of it.      At least there is hope of closing my forex account at some point in the future with gains that make it worth my time and using those gains or passing them on to my kids.     There really isn't that with the slots if you look at the actual odds of winning the mega pots, lotto, lottery or slots alike, but there is the constant visual action as well as the audio stimulus if you turn on the numerous sound alert options; of which I choose to turn none on.       And I like the challenge of it all.    It's not fun in the way other things are fun.    It's not like driving a supercar or so many other countless things that some humans are able to do.    But it's interesting and entertaining.   

As I said earlier, I will lock in losses but only if I've already got the percentage gains during the week that I was seeking and the losses are minimized by the price having returned to my entry as close as possible without risk of it going against me much higher.   So we trade in a similar manner maybe.

As far as pennies method goes, I am going to try to leave the original position on the table as long as possible to see if I can't get a good chunk of the price action he is expecting, but my focus is on weekly percentage gains.     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 26, 2017, 01:43:16 pm
Pennies tks for AUD/CAD chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 26, 2017, 02:48:43 pm
I'm really going to use this pair AUD/CAD as a learning experience via my chart and your chart--i see what you are talking about -now interested to see how it plays out-i have no trade on it
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 26, 2017, 02:51:39 pm
Many times thats a great way to learn, Jav. I will often spend time just watching the charts to see how they play out. I'll form an analysis just as though I were trading it but I don't actually take an entry on it...I just watch to see how it pans out.

Currently, I have plans to take one ACAD short position off the table at 0.97 and then hold 2 positions for a target at 0.93.
Title: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 26, 2017, 02:58:36 pm
Fun like the slots?!? Yikes!

My wife used to think I have a gambling addiction because of my time in the penny and forex markets, but that's the opposite of what brings me here. I don't like the gambling aspect at all. What I like is figuring out the underlying logic.

Charts are attempts to quantify the psychology of the market. Is this policy viable? Will that economy strengthen or weaken? Somewhere in those lines and bars is the secret to what the world thinks about the future. And it's us, we're those lines and bars, but we're such small parts, most of us aren't even aware of it. We're all individual neurons in the great industrial brain and the chart is like an MRI. The answer is in there if only we can learn to read it.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 26, 2017, 03:42:18 pm
Bingo! You hit the nail on the head, Kermit. Its all about psychology. And psychology in the charts can be quantified, measured, and predicted. Thats our job...analyzing the data and determining the psychological flow. And that is precisely why we, as traders, have to love what we do because it's not easy to do. The lure of profits is, of course, what draws us to Forex but the sheer challenge is what motivates us to constantly become better as we learn. If we don't enjoy the challenge, we shouldn't be traders but thats not unlike any endeavor in life. Our job is definitely not for everyone.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 27, 2017, 02:57:04 am
Added GU short at 1.2566. 1.2650 still possible. I'll add another at that level if so. Larger picture is still very bearish for GU. Lower end daily target of 1.17 is still in sight regardless of these near term movements. Patience pays...

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 27, 2017, 06:00:32 am
EG is now prepped for a serious breakout topside. Added a flipper long position at 0.8633. Longer term upside target is still 0.89 though.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 27, 2017, 09:56:03 am
EZ busting out again for the next leg up. Still targeting 1.72 on the weekly chart.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 27, 2017, 07:04:12 pm
Closed the EG flipper for about 16 pips. Still have 2 longer term trades going. Slow day today.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 27, 2017, 08:00:38 pm
GU Daily Chart Update

Hit the upper trendline and dropped back. If it follows the larger bearish pattern, it should start selling off from these levels.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 03:25:25 am
Ok, back in with an EG flipper long again at 0.8621. Lets see if we can get some real volume going this time to the topside.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 05:24:18 am
Just gonna let the EG flipper stick for a while. EG is primed to pop all the way out to the weekly chart which means GU is likely in for a big tumble to the downside. Just gotta wait for the catalyst.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 06:30:04 am
Went ahead and closed the EG flipper for 22.4 pips. Only 86 bucks but every penny adds up in the Forex game.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 06:34:59 am
Closed my EZ long for 336 pips profit. I see 5 waves up now so its probably due for a retrace.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 09:30:41 am
And of course EG is running topside like crazy after I closed the flipper...lol! I hate being right. But I still have 2 longer term positions long on that one that are nicely green so its all good.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 11:51:12 am
Closed one GU short for 76 pips and one EG long for 38 pips. Leaving one trade on each to run. Next please... 😃

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 12:24:29 pm
Not bad so far for the week. Keep in mind, the number of pips really doesn't matter. All that matters is percentages. Even though the pip count seems high, its only because I trade longer term charts and take less risk. But I don't have any stress either...LOL! So its all good.

Slow and steady moves the wheel....

Snapshot from the public account...

At some point in the near future, I'm going to set up a new public account that adheres strictly to the rules of the TDI wave counting method. I thought I had things finalized a year ago when I created this account for public viewing but I picked up a few more interesting tidbits of info along the way so this account was still in the testing phase, technically speaking. That's why the percentages are all over the place. Now that I think I've finally gotten things lined up on the H.O.T. trading method like I want them, I can set up one more public account that will demonstrate what's possible using this method. Hopefully, it will also demonstrate the power of trading long term charts with minimal risk and no stress as well.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 01:55:14 pm
EA Weekly Chart Update

Price and the TDI are still confined within their respective channels. Until the TDI and the price break out together, we don't have a longer term long position available.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 02:00:11 pm
EJ 4 Hour Chart

Larger daily expanding diagonal pattern. 4 hour chart still shows downtrend is intact, at least until the TDI and the price break out together.At this point, I have no reason to believe it won't head back to the bottom of the channel in the larger expanding diagonal.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 02:02:10 pm
ACAD 4 Hour Line Chart Update

Very clean break of the rising wedge. Should be setting up for a retest soon. Larger weekly ACAD chart is unchanged and calls for a larger sell off later that should take us well below the beginning of the rising wedge.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 02:02:53 pm
Ok gang, I'm out of town for a couple of days. Hold down the fort and go get dem pips! 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 28, 2017, 03:49:27 pm
Have fun, and don't forget to check in and see what's happening with the pound tomorrow.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 03:56:32 pm
I'll nr watching from the phone for sure Kermit. I'm never far away from the pips...lol! I just won't have any charts with me.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 28, 2017, 07:10:53 pm
Bottom currently falling out of GU. I wonder what the specific cause is.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 28, 2017, 07:38:03 pm
Can i brag-was up early this morning Donna had to prep for colonoscopy-was watching certain charts Via TEO RAYNER 'S trade idea-saw USD/JPY was in a value area-put on a market sell-went back to bed woke up with green pips-was getting ready to go to hospital felt it had a few more pips for me put on my  TP and it got hit while i was at hospital-then you will see it shot right back up-kinda glad i wasn't home tho cause i might had tried for another short in value area--now i'll sit back a see what it is going to do--Boy was i close to picking the bottom LOL

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 07:42:21 pm
Took another 120 pips profit on a GU short and an EG long. Out of both for now until a retrace.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 28, 2017, 08:07:46 pm
Bragging is encouraged, jav. Nice work! Especially the part about knowing when to quit and just enjoying the moment (if that can be said about a day spent at the hospital--i hope that turned out well too).


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 28, 2017, 08:10:42 pm
On usd/jpy i had put my TP on at 7:27 am was already in the green -i believed it could give me more-thank goodness i was right
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 28, 2017, 08:17:22 pm
yes found some polps but he believe they are ok will send them off just incase
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 28, 2017, 08:54:18 pm
Awesome job, Jav! I can 2nd what Kermit said...knowing when to take the money and run can be one of the hardest points to master in trading.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 29, 2017, 11:43:50 am
Added back an Acad short at 1.0238 on the retest of the broken price action trendline.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on March 29, 2017, 12:41:08 pm
Usd/Jpy Back on watch--soon for a trade
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 29, 2017, 08:23:25 pm
EJ Hourly Chart

Downtrend is still in effect here, at least for one more good drop. Short entry would be at 120.029 and TP would be 118.586. Lets call it a short at 120 and a TP at 118.65 basically for about 135 pips profit.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 30, 2017, 06:34:14 am
Shorting AU at .7673, looking for a retrace to TP at .76.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 30, 2017, 09:31:13 am
Hey pennies........huge request here that I hope and expect will make it easier for others and myself to see the benefit and method of TDI wave counting.     It's one thing to see a wave count played annotated  on a chart to show expected forthcoming price action, but it would be another and far more insightful thing to see some historical TDI wave counts applied to a single pair over the prior few months on the 4 hour and or daily/weekly chart.    Acad would be ideal since that is one pair that we are trading currently.   If you could annotate the running 4 hour chart especially since Jan 1 this year I'd be excited to see it.    It would be a few charts but would maybe help a lot.

Also, seeing that you are focusing on the weekly chart wave count recently, is the 4 hour not reliable enough to focus on as you did for many months in the past? 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 30, 2017, 09:44:55 am
Pennies.......your E/J hourly chart above shows an unfinished wave 4, but has it finished already now that its turned south as if headed down toward finishing a wave 5 down and if not, then how could you be sure?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 30, 2017, 10:42:17 am
Took 70 pips profit on a couple of Acad short position flippers. Holding 2 positions for longer term shorts.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 30, 2017, 11:00:32 am
Morning Qui. On EJ, it never did hit the 71.6 retrace target I was looking for just above 120 so for me the trade didn't set up properly. That happens sometimes. In those cases, I'd rather just miss out on the trade as opposed to guessing at an entry. So that pair just goes back on watch for now. On Acad, it doesn't really pay off to try to annotate every wave count on a smaller time for a long period of time. Once I have a weekly TDI count in place, all I do is drop back to the daily to confirm what I see on the weekly. The 4 hour chart is only useful to me during a single wave progression. For example, lets say I've identified a potential TDI wave 3 on a weekly chart. Each single wave on a weekly subdivides into 5 waves on a daily and each wave on a daily subdivides into 5 waves on a 4 hour chart. So I'll drop to the daily to see if I show 5 complete waves there for the single wave on the weekly. Now, lets assume that the daily is somewhere in the final 5th wave of that larger single weekly TDI wave 3. Only then will I drop to a 4 hour chart to try and count 5 distinct waves within the 5th wave on the daily chart. Trying to drop to a 4 hour chart and label each distinct movement there would literally have you counting hundreds of TDI waves which is a waste of time. Its like trying to bake a cake that calls for 1 cup of sugar. You can easily measure out 1 cup of sugar but it would be pointless to try and count every single grain of sugar to try to get one cup. All that matters is you base your estimate on the larger picture. The little stuff doesn't matter then.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 30, 2017, 11:23:20 am
I think I mostly get what you're saying.     Does the same then apply to counting 5 waves on the hourly chart and even 15 minute chart to confirm what you are seeing on the 4 hour chart then?    Is it dependable enough to trade from?

And is the count totally shot then on the E/J hourly chart?   Or might it still unwind to play out the way you expected TDI wave count wise?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 30, 2017, 11:29:34 am
Depends on what time frame you're basing your primary count on. I always prefer starting with the monthly or weekly chart as my primary. But lets say you want to use the hourly chart as you're primary TDI wave count. You could then use the 15 minute TDI chart to get a finer count with maybe a glance at the 5 minute chart to fine tune entries and exits. But keep in mind the smaller time frames can kill you if you don't have an idea of what the larger time frames are doing. The best rule of thumb is to always start at the highest time frame and use top down analysis. That rule should be followed always, regardless of what trading method you use.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 30, 2017, 11:32:35 am
EJ is back on watch for now until we get more clarity on the TDI wave count. It might still provide a valid short entry around 120 but we have to wait and let the chart tell us what it has in mind. I won't have a chance to look at the charts again until later this evening so I'll let you know what I see then. For now though, its hands off on EJ for me.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on March 30, 2017, 11:36:18 am
Yeah I'm not touching either, even if I didn't have my hands full with Acad still.     So far, I'm not even hitting my 2% goal this week and I don't see that changing by this time tomorrow.    Thanks pennies...
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 30, 2017, 12:45:42 pm
Closed the AU short for 15.7 pips profit. Looks like its still in some type of consolidation channel. I'll look at it again tonight and see how it shapes up from there. Only about 85 pips profit today so I guess that'll have to do. Always another trade somewhere tomorrow.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 30, 2017, 01:37:23 pm
Back in EZ long again at 1.5265.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 30, 2017, 02:49:25 pm
My 1.525, which I forgot about, hit.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 30, 2017, 03:43:27 pm
It can still retrace Kermit but the longer term chart on EZ is bullish. My re-entry today is only an initial one and I'm ready to add later if needed.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 30, 2017, 03:45:55 pm
ON the EURNZD, there's a very distinct bullish divergence on the daily chart, but I'm also seeing a bearish crossover of the middle line on the TDI. So why would now be the time to get back in long? If I didn't have that order sitting at 1.525 from last week, I wouldn't have picked now to buy.

Edit: while i was typing, you answered my question.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 30, 2017, 03:47:56 pm
GU Weekly Chart

Although the tendency here is still bearish, I have for now removed GU from any short consideration. The TDI is peaking out above it's long term contracting triangle and that's an instant red flag for me to just stand aside. Price has not broken out of it's contracting triangle pattern, however, so that leaves GU squarely in the camp of a "maybe" in either direction. I deal strictly with high odds trades and since the odds aren't defined one way or another at this juncture, its off the books for me on anything to do with the pound until it reaches some form of clarity.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 31, 2017, 12:32:56 am
ON the EURNZD, there's a very distinct bullish divergence on the daily chart, but I'm also seeing a bearish crossover of the middle line on the TDI. So why would now be the time to get back in long? If I didn't have that order sitting at 1.525 from last week, I wouldn't have picked now to buy.

Edit: while i was typing, you answered my question.

One other thing I forgot to mention on EZ here, Kermit...and this sounds totally crazy coming from a technical trader...I have a hunch about EZ from this level...lol! But I'm prepared just in case.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 31, 2017, 02:55:14 am
Added another UJ short at 111.80. Still holding all UJ shorts for a 108 target.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 31, 2017, 04:13:16 am
I would swear that GJ looks like it wants to break hard to the downside from these levels in spite of the falling wedge appearance but I'm going to excercise restraint and not take a trade there.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 31, 2017, 05:18:28 am
Dabbling a bit outside the box and went long Usd/Mxn. Looks like the peso is set for another drop soon. Not recommended for the weak at heart...the spread alone on that sucker is 65 pips...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 31, 2017, 05:22:44 am
Almost forgot...my TP on the Usd/Mxn long is 22 even. Thats 32,000 pips north of here...and no, thats not a typo...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on March 31, 2017, 05:42:18 am
32,000 pips? Wow. Too bad I can't even find the Usd/Mxn on my MT4.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 31, 2017, 06:27:02 am
Its not a normally listed group Heavy. I had to go to the Symbols listing and add it. I'm only in for about a penny a pip so its not gonna be a big winner but it'll generate about 300 bucks profit if I'm right. Its considered an exotic pair so it can only be traded at a 20:1 margin instead of a 50:1 like the standard pairs.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on March 31, 2017, 07:44:16 am
Ok got it. Well on Oanda, mine only shows the majors. None of the exotics but I'll keep looking thanks
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 31, 2017, 08:08:22 am
Pennies, you might be on to something with EURNZD. I closed last night for a few pips. It's the end of the week, I should be scaling down, and the charts weren't strong enough to enter yet (though at the moment, you look to be right).

All I have right now is the GBPUSD short, which is behaving well enough, though not setting the world on fire either.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 31, 2017, 10:43:07 am
Closed the Usd/Mxn long for a little over 1200 pips profit. It was fun but its just not a pair I want to trade regularly.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on March 31, 2017, 10:48:33 am
Hey Kermit. EZ could still retrace but what I've found with certain patterns is that just when we think its overbought and ready to tank, the market takes it up again in a massive thrust. Of course with my luck, I'm probably in too early since we haven't had much of a retrace.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 31, 2017, 03:32:54 pm
Week 13 Wrap up:

Start: $158.96
Goal: $164.34
Attained: $162.96

This week was somewhat better than last--2.5% gains. I missed my goal again and my trading is still not sharp. I tried to play both sides of the EURNZD retrace (dangerous move) and got caught in a buzzsaw (long when it was going short, short when it was going long) before getting the hang of it and making a nice final trade.

I was sitting pretty on GBPUSD when I woke up this morning, feeling good about where that put me for the week. Then it went hard against me, eating up most of my gains so the week ends on a down note.

I’ve been trading like an amateur for two weeks now. I’m giving this funk one more week to work itself out and if I don’t get my MOJO back, I’m going to close all my positions, take a week off, and comeback fresh.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on March 31, 2017, 04:49:34 pm
Starting to look at the charts for next week and there is no way to make the Euro look pretty anywhere or any time.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 01, 2017, 07:36:38 am
Week 14 Post

Start: $162.96
Goal: $168.62

Looking at this week’s charts:

GU: This has been my mainstay for 2017 and will continue for the foreseeable future. Right now, as Pennies pointed out earlier this week, it is bearish but gradually becoming less clearly so. On the daily chart attached, you see a resistance line I’m using as my decision point. So long as the price is below that line, I will be shorting rallies. If the price goes above that line, I will shift to looking to buy dips.

An additional oddity on GU: my main FOREX news site, forexlive.com, has a spilt between two of its analysts, with one sure a short squeeze is coming soon and the other still selling into rallies. And several site contributors make much of the forex futures being short GU at near historic levels—supporting the short squeeze theory. Meanwhile, Oanda shows its own customers as being almost evenly split between short and long. What that tells me is that the big players are all betting short while the little players are starting to position themselves for the short squeeze—which further suggests the short squeeze is not coming. (What are the chances the little guys know more than the big guys?)

EU: The other pair I’ve been dickering around with is EURNZD. There’s nothing good to be said about the euro right now, but given the almost 300 pip pullback this week, I’m not shorting it. Right now it is at 2 support lines (the EMA-144 and resistance from December), but I will be waiting for confirmation of a bounce before going long again.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 01, 2017, 02:01:59 pm
This was no joke-
Yep hunted in the yard for my phone in the dark with a flashlight-trying to retrace my steps thru the day-even stirred up a couple of deer lol-got neighbor to call my number-never heard anything -then my thoughts went to my fire pit where i had burned trash-no way was it going to be there-got my stick and dug thru the ashing-AH HECK-when i got the case off-pushed it's button-up came a message-"If you wonder why your phone cut it self off-it was to protect it because it got too hot" lol NO S#IT

and it still works but place to plug in charger is burnt away  :'(
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 01, 2017, 04:33:52 pm
That looks like the Google Nexus. I have one--good to hear it's such a solid phone.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 01, 2017, 05:27:33 pm
it was an ipod -it had an otter cover-military grade-but they didn't know about me lol-killed one dropped it in a glass of coke -next one ran over with my riding  lawnmower-speaking of same lawnmower later exploded in flames and i was on it at the time-All Donna says is "YOU BEAT ALL"
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 01, 2017, 05:31:10 pm
While it was happening-all tires blew-batter exploded-gas tank blew-had to call fire department it was too close to my house-guy said well be glad the gas tank didn't blow-then he said oh is that where it was yep
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 01, 2017, 07:05:03 pm
Wow! You're a menace! Cool fire, though.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 02, 2017, 12:52:38 pm
When i got in house guess i was white as a sheep-haven't run that fast in years lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 02, 2017, 12:55:38 pm
UPDATE-Donna got the melted otter cover off of the charger inlet-Bingo it's still there-charging as we speak-When Donna left for work her phrase-DON'T BURN THE HOUSE DOWN lol
August i can get a new one-when we renew contract-
til then at least i've got a phone -not a pretty phone lol but thank goodness it still works
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 02, 2017, 04:18:51 pm
Kirby the phone is a Verizon Droid--you know that company needs me on one of there commercials lol
Saying don't try this at home -but it still works after all it's been thru-Also the Otter phone cover company could run the same add for it's protection of the phone lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 02, 2017, 04:21:00 pm
I was thinking that--"A phone so tough even Javalin's works!"
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 02, 2017, 04:25:02 pm
Geez Jav....I'm staying away from you.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 02, 2017, 05:00:33 pm
Evening gang. Jav, sounds like you've been through Hell and back...and brought the fire back with you...LOL!

Ok guys, I've been looking back over the USD/MXN chart this evening and I decided its just another currency pair like anything else. And currently, it's still in a prime position to pop hard to the north before much longer. As soon as the spreads settle back down to normal after the open (spreads are about 600 pips right now), I'll go long again. But I won't be aiming all the way up to 1.22. Instead I'll be aiming for 20.70 or so as a TP from current levels.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 02, 2017, 05:12:48 pm
Ok spreads are down on USD/MXN to about 140 pips or so...close enough. I went long at 18.73123. TP is set for 20.70, almost 20,000 pips up from here. Let's see if I can hold it that long...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 02, 2017, 07:00:30 pm
Pennies, I've finally found that usd/mxn on the oanda web based platform. Looks like 18.30 would be the ideal entry. Just my opinion though.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 02, 2017, 07:02:26 pm
Yep Heavy I saw that level as well. I'm willing to hold it even of it drops to that level first.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 02, 2017, 07:05:24 pm
153 pip spread now? Wow!! I don't think I have the stomach for that Lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on April 02, 2017, 07:12:14 pm
153 pip spread now? Wow!! I don't think I have the stomach for that Lol

its not that big of a deal.  you wouldnt be trading it at the $/pip like you would on say Eurusd. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 02, 2017, 07:16:03 pm
I'll be watching it. If it hits that 18.30 level I may jump in small
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 02, 2017, 08:07:03 pm
153 pip spread now? Wow!! I don't think I have the stomach for that Lol

its not that big of a deal.  you wouldnt be trading it at the $/pip like you would on say Eurusd.

Very true, Forex Trader. Its all relative. This thing averages about 2000 or more pips a day ADR so 100 to 200 pips on the spread really isn't much. Plus, Oanda doesn't allow as much margin to be used on the exotic pairs so that keeps you in small overall...only a couple of pennies a pip at best.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 03, 2017, 07:24:53 am
The world is bearish on EU so of course I have to take a small long position here at 1.0662. I'm sure I'm early since I can see a possible retest of 1.06 coming. Lets see how it goes. No guts, no glory...lol!

I still see a topside potential in the 1.14 area.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 03, 2017, 08:41:18 am
Jav.......that's crazy!    Good thing you didn't have a samsung phone or it could have been a lot worse!   lol     

The good thing, if there is a good thing in that situation is that you only have to wait four months to get a new phone instead of what might have many more months.    Can't unseen those pics!  LOL   Glad you're ok through it all.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 03, 2017, 08:51:23 am
Wishing I had gone short on USD/MXN back at the first week of January when I was thinking hard about doing so.    And now I don't know if a long is a great idea or not.     Think I'll leave it for you braver traders.     I'll stick to my USD/DKK short.    It's small and I'll add later when price is at a good weekly reversal point.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 03, 2017, 09:56:41 am
Took 76 pips profit on a UJ flipper short. Still holding the rest for a TP at 108.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 03, 2017, 09:58:17 am
Good idea on EU pennies. I'm waiting for it to hit the 1.06 level or close to it though.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 03, 2017, 09:59:03 am
You know me Heavy... I'm always early to the party...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 03, 2017, 10:07:48 am
Yeah I learned that long ago pennies. Lol. My account only allows me to be about a few min early. Haha.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 03, 2017, 01:49:48 pm
Quant -Donna scratched the bottom of phone and uncovered the charger inlet-plugged it in put it in an aluminum bread pan then lol put the fire alarm over it --it charged -not a pretty phone but at least i am connected to the world again-Donna said i needed to wear a fire extinguisher on my belt lol--smart girl --as she says- her favorite phrase "YOU BEAT ALL "
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 03, 2017, 01:54:35 pm
Pennies our USD/JPY short  has green pips today also my NZD/JPY  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 03, 2017, 02:29:07 pm
Yep Jav I took some pippies on a UJ short earlier. Just waiting on the other long term trades to set up for me.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 03, 2017, 03:26:32 pm
Hey jav......I had no idea that the phones would give that error alert message.    First I ever heard of it.      And looking at the phone in your pic, I'm amazed that it even powers up at all, much less functions normally.     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 03, 2017, 03:28:52 pm
Pennies.........are you making better profits now with numerous small trades going at once then you were when you were trading more heavily in only one or two pairs?    And how many pairs do you have open positions in at any given time now?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 03, 2017, 03:37:36 pm
It varies Qui. Some weeks dont produce much of anything and some weeks are gangbusters. Most months I can usually average 10 percent or so. The big difference with the smaller entries and long term charts is that there is no stress and no danger to the account at all. I may have anywhere from 5 to 10 trades going if you combine flippers and long term positions. One thing is for sure...my overall profits are extremely consistent now. Its gotten pretty predictable on a yearly basis. I guess you could say that trading, for me at least, is really kind of boring overall. I dont get those adrenalin rushes anymore because I really don't go in heavy enough to cause that kind of excitement during a winning trade...or heart failure during a trade that goes against me...lol! I treat it like I would any business.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 03, 2017, 04:41:54 pm
I very much like what I saw out of GU today. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I see an at least 200 pip drop from here. (This was edited--I initially had a 1-week time frame for the drop, but deleted that as it does go sideways for time to time).

The 1 and 4 hour charts are looking quite bearish themselves.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 03, 2017, 07:15:27 pm
NZDUSD: I don't have a position, but it's looking pretty droppy right now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 03, 2017, 08:00:21 pm
If things are lined up like I think they are, EZ is close to popping hard north again.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 03, 2017, 08:14:15 pm
That fits with NZD looking weak against the dollar.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 03, 2017, 08:15:50 pm
Agreed Kermit. I'm still holding one NU short for the larger long term drop.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 03, 2017, 09:53:54 pm
Pennies EUR/NZD is finding support-I think you are right -watching for a long here myself
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 04:16:07 am
Morning Jav. On EZ, I was looking at the price action elliott wave count. It appears to be whats called a flat formation. But I dont rely strictly on EW counts. There are other things as well suggesting EZ could run up from here. Since it is still a weekly chart play for me, I'll hang onto it until it hits my longer term 1.72 target.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 04:32:06 am
ACAD 4 Hour Line Chart

Breaking one support level after another. Uber bearish from here. Still targeting 0.97 as my first TP level followed by 0.93 later on.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 04:42:37 am
USD/MXN 4 Hour Line Chart

There's the potential breakout formation on the chart. So far, so good. Now we wait...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 04:46:14 am
RBA not happy at all. Aussie dollar suffering as a result. Longer term charts had already suggested that institutions were positioning for a sell off, at least based on the TDI wave count I posted a while back. They just needed a reason to sell...always a catalyst somewhere.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-04/rba-s-lowe-lashes-out-at-australian-banks-for-risky-home-lending
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 04:54:30 am
It's hard to believe any country still wants to play with currency pegs. Those things ALWAYS fail...no exceptions. They are a temporary band-aid at best.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-04/new-currency-peg-is-no-panacea-for-iceland
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 05:05:52 am
This article is a stark warning for all of us for 2 very important reasons...

1. A socialist government who supports a "cradle to the grave" system will ultimately collapse inward due to massive debt...there's no way around it. You can't have the government giving things away like super-early retirement (typically in the 50's range for Greece), free insurance, extended job vacation paid time beyond reason, etc., without having to pay the piper sooner or later. Ultimately, the government causes the population to become lax and totally dependent on the government for everything because they've been taught all their lives that the government will always be there to bail them out...until it can't.

2. Save every dollar you can because relying on any form of government subsidy for retirement is foolish no matter how you slice and dice it. The people of Greece were never taught to save...again, because the government basically guaranteed them an income for the rest of their lives after retiring early. Don't think for a second that the US government is any different. Eventually, we will face the same burden as the powers-that-be have to cut or phase out pretty much any form of social welfare that you can think of...including Social Security.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-04/greek-pensions-hot-potato-puts-tsipras-in-tight-spot-on-bailout
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 05:22:33 am
When I see articles like this, it kind of makes me laugh. They're signalling the "all clear" sign when the Mexican stock market is likely to tank hard again based on what I see in the USD/MXN chart.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-04/after-panic-mexico-investors-discover-there-s-life-after-trump
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 07:13:26 am
Taking an initial short on UCAD here at 1.3443. Just a bit early since I'm expecting a bit more upside but not much. Long term TP is set for 1.2250 to the downside.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 04, 2017, 07:28:51 am
That's a pretty aggressive TP Pennies on UCAD....
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 07:34:07 am
Yep that it is Heavy. I'm just being led by the TDI wave count. It tells me what to do and I follow along like an obedient puppy...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 04, 2017, 07:35:46 am
Lol I guess. Usually you're early so let me look at an entry point.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 07:36:52 am
What, me early? I can't imagine what would give you that idea...rofl!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 04, 2017, 07:42:20 am
Yeah you.... early.  Haha. I've been watching a while now. You're TP is over 1100 pips? Wow. This one is gonna take a while.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 07:44:13 am
I had been looking at 1.3450 as a good entry for a short so its pretty close now. I dont mind waiting. Its a weekly chart setup and these things do tend to fart around for a while.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 04, 2017, 07:50:06 am
Well it's close. The 4hr has gone into what looks like a rising wedge now. I got in small @ 1.3440. Looking to add @ 1.3480 If it gets that far.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 09:26:13 am
Just a quick snapshot of some trades I have going and expected targets. Targets are highlighted in the blue boxes.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 04, 2017, 11:34:01 am
Took about 30 pips on the UCAD flipper. Looks to be stalling here briefly.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 04, 2017, 02:44:50 pm
Pennies does this look right to you-would you give us your opinion on this AUD/CAD 4 Hour chart
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 02:51:15 pm
Yes I saw the same pattern Jav. But the target is lower than your low end target. And the larger pattern is all the way down to .93. I try not to lean on IHS or H&S patterns much anymore. As stand alone patterns, they fail too often. But when they coincide with the TDI wave count, they do serve as confirmation for me. The only path I see if definitely down for Acad though so it fits with what you have on your chart. Its pretty much dead...it just doesn't know it yet...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 04, 2017, 03:00:50 pm
Well Pennies that's even better-lower target nice
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 05:42:11 pm
Trying something a bit different here on my public trading account, just for grins and giggles. I'm going to start knocking out some profits a bit earlier on some trades and see how that goes for a while. I still have some long term trades set up but I want to focus more on timing entries on the shorter time frames a bit...like the 4 hour and down...to get more effective day trading in while I'm waiting on the longer time frames to set up.

Here's the list of trades I closed out today. Excluding USD/MXN because the pip totals are out of whack and not a true representation, I got a bit over 146 pips for the day. With USD/MXN, that comes up to 1.8% profits for the day and 2.57% for the week so far.

Just playing around a bit to see if I can bump the profits up a bit without taking any more risk. Usually when I start trying to flip these things though, I get left in the dust and miss out on the larger move. We'll see how it goes.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 04, 2017, 06:00:19 pm
Long EA at 1.4114 with TP set for 1.42.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 07:12:05 am
Long USD/MXN yet again. Lets see if we can't get that sucker to move. I had a lot more profit yesterday but I let it retrace on me and only got out with about a third of what I should have taken.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 07:26:14 am
Long EU again here at 1.0668
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 05, 2017, 07:32:28 am
Good idea on EU pennies. I've been looking at that one and waiting. Just took a small long on AU though. They should go up together.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 07:34:30 am
I'm holding off on AU for now Heavy. Its still locked into a longer term bearish pattern but it can definitely bounce in between those longer term levels.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 05, 2017, 07:39:44 am
The quick bounce is all I'm looking for pennies. Lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 07:42:28 am
Lol! Go get em Heavy. 😄

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 05, 2017, 08:03:26 am
Yeah I know I'm a little early I think but we'll see. I'm getting better at cutting out early if need be.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 09:01:16 am
Sorry Heavy but I gotta take an AU flipper short for a bit here.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 05, 2017, 09:12:05 am
It's all good pennies. It moved passed my tolerance so I cut it loose but of course it rebounded after I got out. I was only looking for about 20 pips anyways to around .7604
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 11:14:15 am
AU Hourly Chart

Here's the chart that prompted me to take the AU short at 0.7575. My TP is conservative at 0.7550 but I fully expect it to move down to the 88.6 fib to 0.7520.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 05, 2017, 11:32:43 am
I see why pennies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 11:34:34 am
Sure seems to be in slow motion today for some reason Heavy. I hate it when they take their time...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 05, 2017, 11:47:01 am
Slow motion for sure pennies but it took my money pretty quick when I'm on the wrong side of a trade lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 11:47:52 am
Lol! Yep it'll do that quick for sure.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 01:40:30 pm
FOMC minutes...no wonder they were dragging their feet today on volume. Still doesn't look like it really changed anything though. Patterns are still in effect.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 05, 2017, 01:42:38 pm
I was wondering what happened.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 02:26:11 pm
Closed out the EU long for basically break even...lost 12 cents...LOL! Just gonna let that one go for now. Draghi speaking tomorrow and there's no telling what he's gonna do.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 05, 2017, 02:31:42 pm
EU is still 70+ pips away from my target entry so I'm still waiting on that one
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 02:34:26 pm
Yeah, I'm just gonna wait it out and see what happens with Draghi before I dive back into EU, Heavy. Always another trade somewhere. My USD/MXN trade is starting to shape up now so I'm sure I'll get my 12 cents back...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 05, 2017, 02:37:57 pm
Hahaha... Don't take out a loan to cover it now. Lol. I cut the AU long loose for a whopping $1 and change lose only to see it come back around to breakeven. I want my dollar back.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 02:38:43 pm
I'm still short AU but I''ll probably close it before too much longer on the next dip.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 05, 2017, 02:40:13 pm
Well it was 7 pips away from your target anyways when FOMC came out
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 02:41:15 pm
Yep...close but no cigar. The smaller TDI wave count indicated a pop back towards the highs anyway so the move up wasn't really unexpected. I still think it tanks later but I don't really want to hold overnight.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 05, 2017, 03:04:13 pm
Just made a nice 52 pip on my short usd/jpy--will try again
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 03:05:07 pm
Very nice Jav! Congrats.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 03:11:20 pm
Well now I'm just mad. I got back into the green on my AU short and pulled the trigger to close it...and they spiked it a pip or so just as I pulled the trigger. So now I've lost $1.13 for the day....grrrr! Its not the money...it's the principal of the whole thing...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 03:16:33 pm
I closed my USD/MXN for over 4 dollars profit...so now I'm up $3.02 for the day...take that Mr. Market! ROFL!

Now maybe I can buy a Coke and a smile for that much profit.  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 05, 2017, 05:52:25 pm
UCAD 30 Minute Chart

Standard TDI Wave 4 completion with 5th wave retrace minimum target. Shorted at 1.34303, TP set for 1.3395 just above the FE 61.8 level.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 05, 2017, 10:24:18 pm
USD/CHF  4 Hour chart on my watch list-any input would be appreciated
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 05, 2017, 10:34:38 pm
 ??? What to do

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 06, 2017, 03:29:17 am
Morning Jav. I looked over the USD/CHF chart and its basically one that I would leave alone. It looks like it should head down but the monthly chart shows a potential breakout condition that could take it hard north. When I see too many conflicting signals like that, I walk away. Lots of other good stuff to trade.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 06, 2017, 03:32:13 am
UCAD Daily Chart

I think I'm just gonna go with the daily intermediate target here on the short side. Might have to adjust the target later on.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 06, 2017, 06:53:37 am
Long USD/MXN again at 18.78. Just gonna sit on this one and let it do its thing. Still looking for a move back up to near 21.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 06, 2017, 08:04:34 am
Shorting AU at .7563 looking for a TP at .7535 to retest the lows. Likely to make a new low though closer to .7520.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 06, 2017, 09:28:05 am
Took profits on the AU short and the EA long. Getting a bit slack on both at the moment.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 06, 2017, 12:28:35 pm
I have an EURNZD long order sitting at 1.525 that I am rethinking the wisdom of. Or, as Churchill would never say, the wisdom of which I am rethinking.

(I took profits earlier at 1.529 after it broke some support lines on the pullback from yesterday's pop.)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 06, 2017, 01:07:07 pm
Pennies thanks for your input on USD/CHF-i'll search elsewhere for a trade -it was sending out conflicting signals-
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 06, 2017, 04:28:18 pm
GU 4HR chart. This is just obnoxious. A triangle within a triangle while I grow old waiting.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 06, 2017, 04:32:40 pm
GU Daily Chart

Still room for one more pop if the market wants to take it there Kermit. But that large previous bear candle suggests the top may be in. Hard to say for sure.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 06, 2017, 04:33:57 pm
But if you want to talk about boring, EURNZD--10 pip range in the last 10 hours. I cancelled my long at 1.525 because at all levels, it looks like more drop to me.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 06, 2017, 05:07:04 pm
Hi Pennies, I expect an answer to that question tomorrow when NFP comes out. The job numbers all week have beaten expectations so I expect tomorrow's to as well. If they do and GBPUSD doesn't drop, or fi the numbers miss, then it will be time to step aside and let it find its top.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 06, 2017, 05:17:25 pm
Yeah I made good bank on EZ and I'm leaving it alone now Kermit. Ideally, I'd like to see a 71.6 fib retrace to satisfy a TDI Wave 4 completion before I go long again.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 06, 2017, 08:21:39 pm
wow had three different yen short trades on just banked some nice pips on each-thank you yen
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 06, 2017, 09:09:42 pm
Everyone-GOT A NEW PHONE TODAY  ;D
All got a kick out of my old phone and cluld not believe it still worked-also had to show them lawnmover that ran over my other phone and what happened to it later lol-
But what i want to know from someone on my phone i still have a cnn app that pops up with real news-Is there an app that has currency news that will pop up realtime
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 07, 2017, 02:22:00 am
Closed out my last ACAD short and my UCAD short. That last ACAD short was a leftover from a much-too-early entry. I just wanted to clear the slate before the weekend on some stuff.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 07, 2017, 02:28:18 am
Switching gears now and going long AU at 0.7523. TP is set for 0.76 even although it has room to move up to 0.7632 or so.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 07, 2017, 02:48:10 am
Long EU at 1.0640. Probably early.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 07, 2017, 05:07:13 am
Closed out the AU long for a couple of pips. Doesn't look like its ready to move up just yet.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 07, 2017, 05:19:53 am
Screw it...got back in AU long again. I'm not gonna start second guessing myself...lol! TA rules get followed and the TA says to be long right now to at least .76.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 07, 2017, 06:41:42 am
Everyone-GOT A NEW PHONE TODAY  ;D

I'd like a photo for comparison purposes during the inevitable autopsy.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 07, 2017, 06:48:32 am
Kermit, I found out that Jav is Public Enemy #1 to the P.E.T.P. organization. Thats the People for Ethical Treatment of Phones organization. Nasty group...and Jav is at the top of the hit list for flagrant phone abuse. 😄

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 07, 2017, 07:03:29 am
NFP coming up at 8:30 EST (30 minutes). In case you're wondering.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 07, 2017, 07:24:28 am
Yep I'm counting on the news Kermit. We need a catalyst to complete these TA patterns.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 07, 2017, 07:25:58 am
Could see a knee jerk drop on the risk pairs before the pop. Hard to say for sure. But the US dollar looks poised to take a butt whupping.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 07, 2017, 07:58:11 am
There's the risk pair drop. Now lets see if we get the pop...typical knee jerk reaction.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 07, 2017, 10:01:40 am
EU potential inverted hammer reversal candles on 1 hr, 3 hr, and 4 hr chart. Dont know if we'll see any volume today though. Might be next week.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 07, 2017, 03:16:31 pm
Week 14 Wrap up:

Start: $162.96
Goal: $168.62
Attained: $191.21

This was a good week, the first one I’ve had in a while. I gained 17% on GBPUSD and EURNZD and cleared out some bad juju gumming up the works. For the first time in weeks, I have no open positions going into the weekend.

What I did well: I successfully played both sides of EURNZD, taking small gains when the charts said that’s all I would be getting instead of trying to will it to do something it wasn't. GBPUSD finally broke my way, but I took my profits today and will look to reenter on Sunday with a clean start.

What I did poorly: For the first time, there’s nothing particular I can point to. No significant mistakes. I didn’t let greed wreck profits, I stuck with what was working and abandoned what was not, and am not carrying trades into a closed market. I even took a couple small losses, which I keep reminding myself is the key to not taking large losses. This was a real relief after the last 2 weeks.

Last week I pledged to take a week off if I didn’t do better this week. Happily, I won’t have to find out if I could actually take a week off.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 07, 2017, 04:43:21 pm
Awesome gains, Kermit! I'm glad you didn't have to take a week off either. We need you here.  ;D
Title: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 08, 2017, 05:59:23 am
Thanks Pennies. I hope everyone has a great weekend. I'm visiting family in Buffalo and may not be back before the open tomorrow. This week I'm looking at reentering short GU after a bounce to somewhere around 1.24 and will also be looking for long entries on EU and EN, but I haven't picked my spots yet on those.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 08, 2017, 05:26:59 pm
EU Daily Chart

The 2 zones listed are mathematically derived extensions and expansions. I'm aiming for the lower target just below 1.10. TP on my EU long set for 1.0950.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 08, 2017, 07:01:16 pm
The week ended with .5% gains.    I'd take a week off to reevaluate my trading but there's no point.   I still have a small Acad open which I'll leave open to move lower as expected or I'll add to it if it bounces here off the weekly 21ma.

What's your on the 4 hour and daily USD/DKK pennies?     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 08, 2017, 07:06:09 pm
Hey Qui. EU and USD/DKK move inversely. Since I expect EU to move up roughly 350 pips from where it closed Friday, multiply 350 times at least 5. That gives you roughly a 1750 pip drop on USD/DKK coming if my EU analysis is right.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 08, 2017, 07:10:55 pm
No kidding?!     Guess I'll hold my short then.    You mentioned coming up with the 2 zones on EU based on math?

Was that simply Fib expansions and extensions you were referring to?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 08, 2017, 07:11:52 pm
jav.......I wouldn't have been able to wait 4 months to buy a new phone either.    Hope this one treats you better since the last one hid from you then set itself on fire just to spite you.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 08, 2017, 07:14:27 pm
kermit......awesome gains man.    I'm looking forward to the week I finally get 10%.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 08, 2017, 07:45:56 pm
Actually Qui each zone is constructed using 3 separate measurements each. The 2 zones are where the measurements converge.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 09, 2017, 01:24:44 pm
Pennies can give us an example having to do with the zones
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 09, 2017, 01:28:55 pm
Hey Jav. The zones I mentioned really aren't anything more than where multiple fib levels show confluence. The zones I showed on EU, for example, are the result of 2 confluences that resulted from 2 measurements of the fib expansion tool and 1 measurement of the regular fib retracement tool. The zones I marked are where the clusters occur.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 09, 2017, 04:55:20 pm
Well yesterday-i had a day- had to go 4 hours to meridian miss for Donna's cousin's funeral-started feeling bad-when we got there i spent most of my time at  the funeral in their bathroom-if they could have come in there and offered me a coffin-guess i would have accetpted it -felt so bad -finally i went and got Donna after throwing up etc-told her i was sick and had to go home-4 hour drive back-Donna driving hit bathrooms and stopped along the expressway to throw up---heard a stomach virus was going around-guess it found me -hate that Donna couldn't stay until the funeral was over - feeling some better today
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 09, 2017, 05:09:41 pm
Holy smokes Jav, you're catching it left and right. You know these things come in 3's. First the phone, 2nd is stomach bug...hold tight for the 3rd...lol! Glad you're doing better today.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 09, 2017, 05:24:42 pm
Pennies already had the 3rd-Donna thought she was being nice and got ahold of my computer-erased all of my bookmarts the other day-went on you tube to see how to get them back no luck-They're gone-so maybe now the maddness will stop
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 09, 2017, 05:43:00 pm
Good deal. Nowhere to go but up now Jav...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 09, 2017, 07:58:51 pm
Sorry to hear about the illness Jav. And at the funeral. oh boy! It's one thing after another. Hopefully things turn up from here.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 09, 2017, 08:00:45 pm
Before I got in the car to head home from my sister's tonight, I set longs, EU at 1.0575 and EN at 1.525, both triggered. I have a GU short sitting at 1.24. I think it will trigger overnight. We'll see.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 10, 2017, 04:39:45 pm
The week ended with .5% gains.    I'd take a week off to reevaluate my trading but there's no point.   I still have a small Acad open which I'll leave open to move lower as expected or I'll add to it if it bounces here off the weekly 21ma.

What's your on the 4 hour and daily USD/DKK pennies?   

Hi Quant. Small green is frustrating, but not nearly as frustrating as red. If you're averaging 1%-2% per week, then you are way ahead of almost any other type of investing. Consistency is more important than size. But as for taking a week off, the purpose is not so much to reevaluate your trading (though you certainly can use the time for that), but simply to clear your head and come back clean.

The problem is we get expectations, we get emotions about a chart. When we have an open position, when we've been playing a chart and have long-term notions of what it's up to, we can misread what is actually unfolding.

"I think it's going to go long." Well, do I think it's going to go long because the chart says so? or do I think it's going to go long because that's what I expected or, worse, hoped to think? When your batting average hits the skids, when you're used to being right most of the time and suddenly you're wrong most of the time, then stepping away gives you a chance to forget what you expected and look at that chart again with clear eyes.

It can do wonders to break you out of a rut. And as hard as it is, not playing for a week means you broke even for that week. Beats the crap out of playing and losing or, worse, taking a flipper position and getting stuck for weeks.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 10, 2017, 04:49:41 pm
Week 15 Post

Start: $191.21
Goal: $197.15

Got home late last night, exhausted, plus I do this a bit on the sly because my wife thinks it’s stupid. So as posted earlier, I already have my positions: Long EURUSD and EURNZD, short GBPUSD. After setting that up, I took one more—long EURGBP because if I'm long the EUR against the USD and long the USD against the GBP, then I should really be long the EUR against the GBP, no? At the moment, I’m up a little here, down a little there, basically even. But that’s 4 positions—1 or 2 more than I’d like to hold at any given moment.

Since this week's charts are already just a bit out of date (made after the close Friday), I won’t spend too much time on them. What I see is:

GU: Lots of drop Friday, but 1.24 and 1.242 are resistance points. I think it’ll bounce some then resume the drop (lots of room to drop). As it played out, I took my main position at 1.24 and a smaller one at 1.242 for an average of 1.2407.

EU: Probable bounce point. I took a position and am green somewhat. Might bail at about 1.075 when it hits the tunnel. Or I might not—depends on how we get there.

EN: Also possible bounce point. This one might go very long, but given its behavior the last few weeks, I’ve done well not riding out retraces. Don’t be afraid to bail. If it breaks a downside resistance point, don’t be afraid to go short but still keep a tight leash.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 10, 2017, 04:53:07 pm

plus I do this a bit on the sly because my wife thinks itís stupid.

I think most of our wives do think we're crazy, Kermit. Mine used to think the same thing until I started giving her money from the profits...LOL! After that, she didn't seem to mind so much.  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 11, 2017, 06:26:58 am
Long GU here @ 1.24280. Set it and forget it mode
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 11, 2017, 07:02:04 am
Just went long on GJ. Risky so I dont recommend anyone follow me...lol. The general pattern looks like its gonna move up.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 11, 2017, 07:06:40 am
Yeah you are on your own with that one pennies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 11, 2017, 07:07:50 am
Lol! I went in light there so if I'm wrong its no big deal. Targeting 148 to the topside.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 11, 2017, 07:13:29 am
I see. The price is equally as far from the daily support as it is from your TP. approx 1050 pips. Could go either way IMO. You can have that one. Lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 11, 2017, 07:15:18 am
Yep its a toss up for sure Heavy. I could easily wind up adding later after a deeper retrace. But longer term charts show its due for a move up down the road so I dont mind holding it.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 11, 2017, 07:21:41 am
Waiting at the party long before it starts? I'll be like you one day pennies  ;D ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 11, 2017, 07:22:58 am
Rofl! Yep I'm always early Heavy. But I always wind up having a good time and I leave before the party is over. 😄

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 11, 2017, 07:26:30 am
Good point hahaha
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 11, 2017, 08:44:10 am
Long EJ at 117.01 for a bit.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 11, 2017, 09:11:26 am
jav.......dang man......I don't know what's worse, losing your phone to fire or losing your bookmarks to your wife's techno intervention.  LOL    If I lost my bookmarks right now, it'd be a real PITA!    I save them onto flash drives every once in a while so I can either refer back or retrieve them later when I do lose them on my computer for whatever reason.    Right now though, if I lost them it'd take me a full day to search each one out that I could even remember having.   

Speaking of bookmarks, the only forex related bookmarks I have is this board, and a site for "historical exchange rates from 1953..".     If someone would develop and blog a site that gave real-time, 95% or better, guaranteed winning trade entry alerts, I'd put that in my bookmarks too, but the closest I've come to that is this board and it's only got like a 60% accuracy rating because the alerts are ALWAYS EARLY!!!!   Hahahahaha.......
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 11, 2017, 09:43:18 am
kermit........listen, I am seldom able to take near perfect short term entry trade positions and I am more often than not early in my entries on the longer term chart time frame as well, so for me it's a case of always being in the red on my initial position until price finally makes it back to my entry which sometimes takes two or three weeks.    So I try to keep my risk low enough to accommodate a huge move against me, which allows me to add later for a double down position at some overextended price action point, and then take profits as they present at fresh price action zones, or points of support/resistance and try to wait long enough to make them count for at least a 2% profit on those later trades in the same pair I entered too early in.     

I simply can not consistantly trust my own "chart interpretation" well enough to take large risk trades more than occasionally and even then I never have the courage to let them ride long enough to potentially realize gains greater than that measly 2% or so.    I should file for some kind of mental disability, cause I definitely come up short on mentally evaluating ideal short term entries on the forex chart.   

I've taken days, weeks and even months off and still no appreciative improvement in interpretive price action prediction accuracy.     As long as I can keep from taking positions that are wrong for months worth of days against me, that might leave me vulnerable to blowing my account, and so far I have been able to avoid doing that, so I'm not going to change anything that I'm doing for now, other than spending whatever emotionally positive free time I can find to try and improve my skills at interpreting price action.   

I don't know how you trade, but you are obviously much better at it then I am, but unless I knew and saw the chart exactly as you interpret it then I can't possibly see your kinds of gains.    Now if you would post your trades as you take them along with explaining your interpretation of the chart, then I might begin to learn to trade as you do, but maybe not too.    But, you may not be able to mention everything you see, or communicate it in a way that I can fully understand.      And, I may very well still see what I would normally see and put more conviction in what I am seeing over what you are seeing.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 11, 2017, 09:59:46 am
Love that 60 pips pop on GU long.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 11, 2017, 10:34:33 am
Yep Heavy with the other pairs like EU and AU poised for topside runs, I think we'll see more of that type of action for a while. Nice call on that one.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 11, 2017, 10:44:19 am
Thanks pennies. I'm actually looking at AU right now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 11, 2017, 10:46:26 am
I took a little over 1% profit on a couple trades today. Gonna let the remainder ride and see what we get the rest of the week. Headed out so I'll catch up later. Everybody have a good one.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 11, 2017, 10:48:29 am
Nice work. Enjoy. I'll be looking for a reentry on GU and AU. We'll chat later
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 11, 2017, 12:10:12 pm
Long AU @ .7504
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 11, 2017, 01:37:05 pm
Yep Heavy with the other pairs like EU and AU poised for topside runs, I think we'll see more of that type of action for a while. Nice call on that one.


Nice work. It caught me flatfooted. I'm still looking short, but the bounce is much higher than I expected. (Which I should have come to expect given that the last 3 or 4 bounces have been higher than I expected.)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 11, 2017, 01:49:10 pm
I still get caught flatfooted...often Kermit. I'm just glad I was able to get in on that one.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 11, 2017, 07:45:11 pm
Gotta take the long position on EZ again here at 1.5246. The TDI wave counts looks set to move up again before much longer.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 11, 2017, 09:45:28 pm
Took 43 pips profit on the EZ long.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 12, 2017, 05:50:13 am
EJ 4 Hour Chart

Made it back to the lower trend line as expected. The TDI shows a classic IHS pattern so a pop is definitely coming. My TP is set for a conservative 120 but I expect it to move higher than that.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 12, 2017, 05:58:53 am
Good deal on going green last night pennies. I cut AU loose for now cause It's not ready yet and I haven't gotten that patience thing mastered yet. It sucks that I can't find EZ on my MT4 but I've fallen in love CAD/JPY. That thing is a mover for sure. Good luck
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 12, 2017, 06:23:38 am
I don't think I've ever looked at CAD/JPY much in the past Heavy. I'll give it a look today...thanks.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 12, 2017, 06:27:13 am
Neither have I until the past week or so. It trades like EA IMO with a decent spread. Let me know what you think.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 12, 2017, 08:34:20 am
EZ still appears to be bullish so I'm back in long again in spite of the overall shallow retrace. Long at 1.5328.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 12, 2017, 03:36:01 pm
Bailed out of the EU long on the pop. There could be some back and forth here for a while.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 12, 2017, 03:40:09 pm
Bailed out of my AU long for a bit of profit...got in too early so I'm just cleaning house a bit to clean the slate.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 12, 2017, 03:44:56 pm
Back in long on USD/MXN at 18.56. Its getting closer to a bottom now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 12, 2017, 04:00:24 pm
Its still a bit early to tell but I'm starting to see some preliminary indications that the US dollar may be poised for a significant rally. I'm gonna hold off on any bullish bets on the risk pairs like AU, GU, and EU for now until this thing plays out a bit more.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 12, 2017, 04:15:38 pm
Closed out my last UJ short. Leaving it alone for now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 12, 2017, 05:11:30 pm
Added to my GU short. Every time I climb out, it pulls me back in.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 12, 2017, 07:10:39 pm
Looks like I should've stayed in that AU long for a lil while longer. I missed that pop. Oh well
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 12, 2017, 07:32:05 pm
I don't know how you trade, but you are obviously much better at it then I am, but unless I knew and saw the chart exactly as you interpret it then I can't possibly see your kinds of gains.    Now if you would post your trades as you take them along with explaining your interpretation of the chart, then I might begin to learn to trade as you do, but maybe not too.    But, you may not be able to mention everything you see, or communicate it in a way that I can fully understand.      And, I may very well still see what I would normally see and put more conviction in what I am seeing over what you are seeing.   

I don't post my trades like that--I only have full access to charts and such for a few hours in the evening. Usually I'm working off my phone or iPad. So when I enter or exit, I can't provide an illustrated explanation (though it might make me a better trader if I did). But every Sunday I post the charts I'm looking at and say what I'm looking for and what I expect to do if I see it. Then on Friday I review how it all went and try to identify the good and the bad.

Right now I don't feel like such a great trader as I once again got sucked much deeper into GU than I'd like after just having gotten out after 3 weeks of holding (my trading preference is to hold no more than a day or two).

Attached is the GU Daily. Pennies warned me that it might make another run at the top before going down to the bottom, but I was sure it was ready to drop. Too sure as it turned out.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 12, 2017, 07:35:03 pm
What the heck is going on with E/J pennies?    The 4 hour H&D appears to be failing.    No?    There's horizontal support on the 4 hour and daily, but the weekly candle action and TDI fast line doesn't look ready to accommodate any bounce to me.

It bounced at the 71.6 weekly fib back in july last year and looks like wave 4 is over and 5 down about to begin.     Hard to get comfy shorting it here.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 12, 2017, 07:39:26 pm
kermit......I understand and it's no problem.    I see only 50 odd pips to the 4 hour price action line of resistance, and there's a definite wedge pattern there with the upper trend line of that wedge being at the 50 odd pips I just mentioned.     Question in my mind is whether that wedge pattern will hold or evolve into an ascending channel.    Pennies could probably answer that question better than me and my uncertain mind.

I do intend to go short when that line gets hit though fwiw.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 12, 2017, 07:43:27 pm
Hey Qui. Nothing has changed on EJ. Current price action shows consolidation at the lower trendline area of the larger wedge pattern and the IHS TDI pattern is still fine. These things can cycle and compress for a very long time before moving in the desired direction. On a 4 hour chart, that can result in days of consolidation. I never get in a hurry with these things. I leave them to play out as they will.

The basis of the TDI IHS pattern is a direct result of the TDI wave count. Basically, an IHS pattern on the TDI is a 5th wave completed at the area I have marked as the Head. The first move up from there would be a TDI Wave 1 followed by a TDI Wave 2 back down. The TDI Wave 2 during a downtrend makes a slightly higher low on the TDI and a lower low in price.

Looks normal so far. I would say its playing out exactly as it should. The next step would be a high volume move up with large green candles that forces the TDI to break above the neckline I have marked. That would be followed by a TDI Wave 4 retrace followed by a final TDI Wave 5 up. Based on my experience, that would put EJ right at that 61.8 fib retrace at a minimum which is where I derived my 120 TP target topside.



Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 12, 2017, 07:54:44 pm
Thanks for the annotated pattern layout pennies.    It makes perfect sense and I know the H&S pattern is one of your staples.    It's just not something that clicks at first site for me and I forget to watch for it.    Now I can see how it would typically play out wave wise though.    I'll either take a small opening position, or I'll wait to see if next week offers a little better entry.     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 12, 2017, 11:19:07 pm
Pennies thanks for that Ej chart-
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 13, 2017, 06:06:47 am
Long UJ @ 109.055 Maybe I Can hold this one long enough.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 13, 2017, 07:16:31 am
Thanks for the annotated pattern layout pennies.    It makes perfect sense and I know the H&S pattern is one of your staples.    It's just not something that clicks at first site for me and I forget to watch for it.    Now I can see how it would typically play out wave wise though.    I'll either take a small opening position, or I'll wait to see if next week offers a little better entry.   

Hey Qui, I thought I would show you this as well. You can see how the smaller TDI IHS pattern played out last time. This pattern is larger overall which is why its taking more time to play out. But once the pattern confirms, you can see how price action responded afterwards.

The key characteristic in identifying the TDI IHS or TDI H&S patterns is that price action must confirm the pattern. In the case of a TDI IHS pattern, like we had before and like we have now, that characteristic is that price must make 3 lower lows for each of the markers...the Left Shoulder, the Head, and the Right Shoulder. The neckline then breaks and gets retested. After that, the high volume move kicks in and off we go.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 13, 2017, 08:48:16 am
GO... UJ... GO!!!!!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 13, 2017, 09:14:26 am
hey pennies.........I actually noticed that same smaller previous H&S pattern and it was what made me question if the current pattern is valid because price action shot up at the right shoulder as did the TDI fast and slow lines, whereas neither price or the TDI lines are moving up from when the right shoulder appeared to be set.     To me, it looks as if both price action and the TDI lines are headed lower to the daily bottom descending trend line at the 61.8 fib.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 13, 2017, 09:17:36 am
This pattern is larger and more complex so its not as obvious as the previous one. But the concept is the same.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 13, 2017, 09:25:30 am
Well........since it's not but 30 to 50 pips to that trend line and I don't want to risk missing out on a potential reversal here..... so I just entered a starter position on E/J.      It's a couple/three hundred pips to the fresh price action zone below so if need be, I'll add there.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 13, 2017, 09:30:23 am
I ended up taking an early short on G/U at 1.255 later last night and closed out for 3o pips upon waking this earlier am.    Not sure if closing out was a good idea or not.    Not sure if I'll get a chance to reopen a short at or above last nights entry.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 13, 2017, 09:39:53 am
I also managed to get back to near even on my second USD/DKK short yesterday on the 300 pip drop from my 3rd added short.     I won't add again unless I find some higher odds area to add in event price moves up making all new highs.    I've got a long in place in event that's the case.     The long won't keep me from being in the red, but it will soften the paper losses until I can add much later to average my shorts back to even so I can close out all positions and start afresh.    If the shorts prevail, they will bring a better gains than my long will loss and I will simply double down on my losing long at some point waiting until I can close the longs out for even eventually.     That's my plan and I'm sticking with it.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 13, 2017, 10:47:10 am
Closed UJ long for minimal gain. The counter trend trade is losing momentum.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 13, 2017, 12:07:02 pm
CAD/JPY breaking out of a 45 pip flag pattern. I'm short from 82.285
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 13, 2017, 12:13:40 pm
Just like that. Took 32 pips on CAD/JPY.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 13, 2017, 01:09:45 pm
Nice work Heavyweight. It sounds like you're cleaning up this week.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 13, 2017, 01:18:28 pm
Thanks kermit but no. Trying to get back to break even. Impatience really kills it for me. I think I just like the fact of getting in and out of trades. Lol Watching a trade for days and weeks bores me to tears.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 13, 2017, 01:21:55 pm
Sorry kermit I had to change that post that I thought was from pennies. Still trying to learn the platform.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 13, 2017, 02:52:58 pm
No worries. I'm the same way with trading. The real thrill is opening and closing positions. Trades going my way are good too. Trades sitting still are almost as bad as trades going against me. Sometimes I get myself into trouble by adding to positions simply because they aren't moving and I need to make something happen to alleviate the boredom.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 13, 2017, 03:01:51 pm
Now that's me right there kermit.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 13, 2017, 04:14:01 pm
Heavy i have been playing cadjpy for awhile myself -love it's action
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 13, 2017, 04:19:05 pm
Jav, I remember you mentioning that a while ago but it never dawned on me to trade it until recently. I almost trade it exclusively cause I love the way it moves. The spread isn't bad either.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on April 13, 2017, 05:53:13 pm
Why are we the only country without a bank holiday tomorro w?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 13, 2017, 06:36:43 pm
Forex, I think our holiday is Monday
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 14, 2017, 05:41:39 am
US doesn't take any days off for Easter.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 14, 2017, 06:32:24 am
UJ Daily Chart

Hovering right near the FE100 support area. Most if not all of the Yen crosses are in similar positions at or near support levels.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 14, 2017, 03:46:33 pm
Cad/Jpy been trading this for awhile --using the 15 min chart  AND THE 1-2-3 SYSTEM-WILL PUT UP LINK LATER AFTER I FIND the bookmark  :'(
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 14, 2017, 07:20:18 pm
also on cad/jpy i had looked at the longer term charts all  had the bias of the bears are in control-so i only wanted to go short
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 15, 2017, 07:00:01 am
Week 15 Wrap up:
   
Start: $191.21
Goal: $197.15
Attained: $189.82

A down week, losing almost 2%. It started off well, with all my limit orders hitting and initially going green so that by Tuesday morning, I was almost half way to my goal. Then it all went against me. Especially GBPUSD. I planned for a small retrace, but got an almost full one.

What I did well: I made basically sensible decisions about my entries and waited for them to come to me, rather than chasing when some initially did not go my way. When they started to turn against me, I took some profitsóI closed EU and EN for ok gains.

What I did poorly: I doubled down on GU at the second resistance point instead of waiting to see if it held (it didnít). Everything looked like it would work out ok by Thursday, but better than expected numbers out of Britain and worse than expected out of the US put an end to that dream and I gave back my gains plus some, ending the week down.

Iím basically in the position I was in 2 weeks agoótoo heavy in GU and red. Iím on the right side, I thinkóI feel safe with my shortsóbut still, I donít like how I got here.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 15, 2017, 07:13:17 am
Week 16 Post

Start: $189.82
Goal: $196.06

This weekís charts are CJ and EU. What I see is:

CADJPY: I donít usually play JPY or CAD and I am usually leery of new pairs, so Iíll just watch, but FOREX and Heavy peeked my interest. Thereís not much holding up the CAD here, is there?

EU: Thereís not much good to be said about the euro across the board, but this is at a support area. If it bounces, I will probably just watch, but if it breaks, I will go short.

GU: No point posting a chart as itís not telling me anything about what it will do the next few days. I wouldnít enter a position right now if I werenít already in, but I have an open short and bring it up because my expectation that the euro will go down against the pound and the pound will go down against the dollar are my reasons for keeping an eye open for a short entry on the EU.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 15, 2017, 01:13:26 pm
Here's a chart of CAD/JPY that I'm looking at kermit.... CAD is definitely bearish and I only advise short positions at this point but look at that movement per each swing.


(https://charts.mql5.com/14/729/cadjpy-d1-oanda-division1-2.png)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 15, 2017, 01:14:49 pm
That's my first chart here so I'm sorry if it's too big....lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 15, 2017, 01:33:54 pm
CAD/JPY Weekly Chart

Of course, I have to be the contrarian...LOL! While the lower time frames do offer a bit of downside on these yen crosses, the larger time frames are calling for a bounce soon. Every yen cross pair I look at on the larger time frames looks pretty much like this one. They've all broken out one way or another and they're all sitting at or near support levels.

And the TDI wave counts support the price action theory. So basically, I'm only looking for long positions on the yen crosses based on the higher time frames. I've discarded shorts as an option even on the lower time frames. That doesn't mean they can't move down further...it just means the odds for a substantial sell off aren't very good from these levels. The odds are stacking up higher for a topside yen cross reversal across the board.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 15, 2017, 01:56:49 pm
You always rain on my parade pennies. Lol. A temporary bounce yes. The smaller time frames look to be forming a wedge pattern. Trend change?.....No I don't think so but hey, a bounce on the daily or weekly can still be hundreds of pips.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 15, 2017, 01:57:42 pm
Exactly Heavy. Thats all I'm looking for.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 15, 2017, 02:07:57 pm
Yes the price is already over extended compared to the last swing. I've added the 200 to my fibs so if/when price touches it I look for an immediate bounce most of the time.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 15, 2017, 07:26:02 pm
Happy Easter to everyone (whether you celebrate or not, it's still Easter). Pesach Sameach to everyone (whether you celebrate or not, it's still Pesach). And good luck this week!


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 15, 2017, 08:02:42 pm
Thanks and same to you kermit
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 15, 2017, 09:32:30 pm
Thanks Kermit and goodluck to you too
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 16, 2017, 12:56:19 pm
pennies........there's that ATM TDI pattern of yours on your Cad/J weekly chart that I've seen you post many times on smaller time frames for any given pair.    I watch for it all the time now.    It doesn't seem to be there when I'm looking at the charts though most of the time.     And, it doesn't always pay off, but seems like any time I didn't take the trade with you, it did.    On a weekly scale that could mean a bounce to at least the 38.6 fib level I should think.    I too would expect all the yen pairs to move the same, but I sure don't know.    I do know though that I would bet against it.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 16, 2017, 01:01:48 pm
kermit.......just .75% gains for me this week that I was able to lock in.     Disparaging, but it's better than no gains at all I guess.    I'd be a lot happier if I made those paltry gains on a million dollar account.   

Happy Easter to you as well.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 17, 2017, 07:02:00 am
Good morning all. Hope everyone had a great weekend. In long CAD/JPY @ 81.536
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 17, 2017, 09:47:05 am
Out of CAD/JPY long for minimal gain. About a whole 10 pips to be exact. On the sidelines for now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 09:53:34 am
Hidden divergence on ACAD shows its going bullish again even after this bounce. Going in for a long here at 1.01. I'm still expecting a move back up to just above the 1.02 level at minimum.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 17, 2017, 10:39:51 am
As usual, I got out too early. That's the downside of the scalper
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 02:08:34 pm
Closed the ACAD long for just a few pips profit. Guess its not ready just yet. With my luck, it'll explode north now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 17, 2017, 02:14:27 pm
Pennies I decided to jump back in CAD/JPY @ 81.64 after the formation of an ascending triangle on the 15 min. I'm just gonna wait this one out for a little while longer
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 02:15:54 pm
Yen crosses are looking good Heavy. I've got long term positions on those for topside movement.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 17, 2017, 02:22:04 pm
Yes pennies and it just broke out topside of the triangle pattern. Looking for it to hit 82 near term and 82.50 long term IMO.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 17, 2017, 02:53:52 pm
Well pennies not sure about the format here..how to post..how to post charts..how to reply etc....would love to come back from the dead(LOL) and join you guys but sure looks like I need guidance on how to use this forum...hope this message reaches you..looked like the closest I could find to getting back in the saddle with everyone!

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 04:02:05 pm
Simple! Wow dude, glad to hear from you! Man, we sure have missed you. IHUB got to the point where the outages and the ads (and the privilege of having to pay for it on top of that...LOL!) was just getting crazy. So I decided to set up a totally free forum where we can post till we're blue in the face and not have ads beating us to death.

Its a fairly straight forward setup. One of the primary differences is instead of hitting a New Post button you basically just hit Reply to keep going in the same thread. File attachments for charts are more straight forward. If you want to post a chart, just click the Choose File button while you're posting and load up anything you want. Any standard format like JPG or PNG works fine.

A lot of the same codes work as well, such as the codes to make print bold or italic. There's lots of other features I haven't even gotten around to using yet. The forum itself is an "out-of-the-box" setup that I customized for our use here. Once I got it up and running, I just dropped it in place.

You are most welcome my friend...so glad to have you here with us!  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 04:16:54 pm
Well pennies not sure about the format here..how to post..how to post charts..how to reply etc....would love to come back from the dead(LOL) and join you guys but sure looks like I need guidance on how to use this forum...hope this message reaches you..looked like the closest I could find to getting back in the saddle with everyone!

Hey Simple, I forgot to mention this. We also have a mobile app free for our use. Again, its just a freebie that I customized for us. It does have ads but they're not terribly intrusive.

You can find info and a short video tutorial on the Tapatalk program on Page 3 of the board. Here's a quick link to that page...

http://taforextrading.createaforum.com/general-discussion/ta-forex-trading/msg35/?topicseen#msg35
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 17, 2017, 04:27:47 pm
Will be glad to be back pennies ..been a long dry spell without my old friends and FOREX support group...is there an easier way to post a reply than hitting shift+alt+s or did I mss something while stumbling in the dark?No doubt it will all become second nature to me once I get a feel for the new formats but til then I am most definitely a blank slate newbie(LOL)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 04:28:53 pm
Yep, just click the Reply button at the bottom right of the page and it will automatically get you where you want.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 04:31:26 pm
Free Java Arcade Games for Everyone

If any of you guys like to pass the time while trading with mind-numbing easy video games, you're in luck. Our board now includes a bunch of those...LOL!

They all run with Java script so you have to have that enabled in your browser. To access the games, just click on the Arcade link at the top of the forum page and take your pick. There's tons more available but I only put up a couple of pages worth. I think they have like 51 pages available so I can always add more.

Enjoy!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 17, 2017, 04:50:59 pm
Another problem is finding my way back to the current postings..I realize this is new to me and will be second nature later on but right now things seem a bit awkward..I feel like I'm sorta flying blind at the moment
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 04:57:49 pm
Yep, thats a bit different as well Simple. The easiest way to make sure you're at the latest post is just to hit the latest number in the string at the top left of the page. The forum layout is similar to what we've seen when we're searching for MT4 indicators on the internet at places like Forexfactory. When you hit the board, you're always at the very beginning of the posts so you have to click the last page of the forum to get to the most recent posts. Also, when you make a post, it unfortunately takes you back to the first page, which means you have to hit the last page listing again to get back to see your latest post.

I'm still playing with the overall settings for the Forum to try and alleviate some of those issues but there are literally tons of switch setting options for this setup so I'm still digging through them.
Title: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 17, 2017, 05:03:01 pm
Hey Simple! Welcome! I've been visiting your old board periodically to see if you check in. Good to see you here. Pennies has a pretty good site set up. Very easy to post charts.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 17, 2017, 05:17:10 pm
Ok pennies, I've played that turkey shoot game 3 times and got an error message when it was time to save my scores. It's probably a good thing since the scores were pitiful.....Just saying though.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 05:18:38 pm
LOL! Sorry about that Kermit. I'm not sure about the Save Score option...I haven't gotten that far yet.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 05:20:46 pm
Simplified Forum Layout

Ok gang, I'm making some changes to the Forum layout, hopefully to make it easier to navigate. I've setup an EZ Portal view which basically relocates some stuff on the page. The buttons for Reply and such should now appear at the top of the page inside the Forum. Also, it has some basic info for the forum on the left side of the page and it shows the most recent posts by members on the right side of the page.

Let me know how this works out for you. Its still a work in progress.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 05:23:59 pm
Here's what the new portal layout should look like.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 17, 2017, 05:32:53 pm
Hey kermit!!glad to see you..looks like a lot of good folks came over here and you're certainly in that list.I'm still trading FOREX but my time is now so limited after retiring that I have very little time to trade..certainly no time for scalping anymore so all I do now is follow trends which is not as easy as all the gurus try to make it sound with "the trend is your friend" crap.I just second guess them as best I can then enter long/short and give it time to show its true direction..if wrong I ride to reversal then add to position...if right I keep adding to position til reversal.I now buy the dips..and sell the rallies.I keep everything small and build on this semi-method.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 05:34:39 pm
Same here Simple. I typically follow the long term charts now and just stick with those. No headaches, no stress, and I don't have to hover over the charts. I still day trade sometimes but its rare now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 17, 2017, 06:05:45 pm
pennies my main pair of interest for some time now is AUD/NZD ...I like it because it moves based on their local fundamentals rather than being jerked around by every whim of the USD etc..it moves a lot on good/bad news from AUD or NZD but trends well depending on news from either nation.Been a good one for me considering my limited time to trade.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 17, 2017, 06:08:16 pm
I traded that one for a while myself Simple. I'm currently trading long on the Eur/Nzd pair on the weekly and monthly chart. Takes a while to get going but theres lots of potential upside and the sucker can really move when it wants to.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 17, 2017, 06:50:12 pm
Went ahead and closed my CAD/JPY long @ 81.89 as it approaches 82 TP/resistance.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 18, 2017, 12:36:33 am
Simple good to see you--As Pennies looking at longer time frames for the trend -then only scalping that way --cad/jpy is sure a mover
talk later-WELCOME ABOARD
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 18, 2017, 07:09:46 am
GM jav..thanx for the welcome...been meaning to hook back up with you guys for a long time but free time evades me these days....helping the wife take  care of our twin grandsons takes a bite outa my day...the boys have their naps at our place so daughter can get a break every day...those 2 little buggars can be a handful now that theyve turned two(LOL)When I do have free time during day I'm busy in greenhouse or raised bed gardens...if not that its mowing and weed eating season you know.
  Hey jav..you still need your little pink floaties ?..I remember your fondness fo being underwater(LMAO)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 18, 2017, 08:04:17 am
Good morning board...happy trading today.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 18, 2017, 08:24:13 am
Simplegreen........misery loves company!     I don't have little ones to look after anymore as they are almost college age, but I do have to spend part of my day now fighting those dang weeds.     Burning them takes too long and is unsightly.    Pulling them only works when the ground is damp.    Poisoning them only works well when you use "Groundclear" and pouring vinegar on them too is a semi successful way to spend my time.    I'm passing on the garden this spring as I have vehicle parts to replace and other landscaping to do, but I hope to  be building raised beds this summer for next years planting.    I'll need to build them tall enough to keep the dog from lifting his leg on everything or walking all over the plants.    Maybe what I really need is some kind of dog control more than weed control.   

Nice to see your presence on the board, even if only occasional.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 18, 2017, 08:31:44 am
Morning heavyweight.    Good luck is about it right.    Technicals and indicators seem to be more of an illusion than a real tool for forex much of the time to me.    I've nearly got my 1% thus far in the week.    If I'm real lucky I'll close the week with 2%.  lol     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 18, 2017, 08:38:59 am
I guess I'm out E/J for now, but will look to reenter in the 115.5 area I suppose in event it moves back up to break out of the daily descending line of resistance that was more or less hit on this mornings high.    Good day all.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 18, 2017, 08:46:10 am
Good day to you as well Quan
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 18, 2017, 08:59:35 am
GM quanticopious..glad to be here among so many old friends..on the raised bed thing you might try what I did..I have several  that I built using 2X6 and 2X8s...but that can get expensive so the last 8 of them I built I used IBC Totes...nice and tall to keep out critters but very efficient.I pulled to totes out of their cage and cut them in half..then I cut the cage in half as well and place cage where I want and reinsert the plastic tote.Wash them carefully with Dawn ..rinse...then drill holes near bottom for drainage...fill with soil ..part sand and part potting mix with some Black Kow all mixed well...then fill up with plants.These make excellent raised beds and totes can usually be found cheap enough to make it economical as well as a quick way to make raised beds.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 18, 2017, 09:02:41 am
GM to you Heavyweight...hope tradings going good and lifes been treating you well.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 18, 2017, 09:29:05 am
Hey Simple. Glad to see you here. I was wondering what happened to you. Life is great...trading not as great lol. Still trying to get in the swing of things and find my groove. I removed most of the endless indicators and just sticking to the basics. Fingers crossed though and looking forward to your input here as well.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 18, 2017, 10:14:16 am
Gonna jump in a small long on AU @ .7546 Probably a bit early. Near term TP @ .7590
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 18, 2017, 11:40:51 am
Closed my AU long for a measly 7 pips. I didn't get the follow through I was hoping for.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 18, 2017, 12:04:45 pm
Took some nice pips on my CAD/JPY overnight--now waiting for a retrace so i can short again
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 18, 2017, 12:08:39 pm
Nice job Jav. I was looking at that when I closed the long I had on CAD/JPY. It's down about 80+ pips since then and I'm sick I missed it.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 18, 2017, 03:18:10 pm
Thanks Heavy-am taking a gander at Simple's AUD/NZD also
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 18, 2017, 03:22:28 pm
Jav, EA looks awfully tempting for a short as well.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 18, 2017, 04:43:41 pm
CAD/JPY Weekly Chart

Taking a preliminary starter long position here on CAD/JPY with TP set at 94.40. Got in at 81.07. Still room for some downside but not much relatively speaking from the weekly angle.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 18, 2017, 04:53:04 pm
Pennies if you're in @ 81 then I know I should wait about another 100 pips or so. Lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 18, 2017, 04:55:01 pm
Lol! Probably right Heavy.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 18, 2017, 05:49:18 pm
Ok pennies I jump in long CAD/JPY with you @ 81.05. The TDI bollies are tightening up on the 30 min so a pop is coming one way or the other.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 18, 2017, 06:32:26 pm
UCAD 4 Hour Chart

Initial short on UCAD here at 1.3378. Primary TP set for 1.3150 but I strongly suspect its going down to the FE 100 at 1.29.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 19, 2017, 04:24:26 am
Closed Cad/Jpy long, GBP/Jpy longs for now. Still holding one EJ long.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 19, 2017, 08:47:56 am
Simplegreen........my plan was to use free pallets to build the frame and then use corrugated metal to contain the dirt.     When sanded a bit and stained or painted the pallet wood will look very good framing the corrugated boxes.     I'll google your totes and see if that would be cheaper and less work and still look good in the back yard.    We can't increase our property value if we have a poor white trash raised bed garden.   lol   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 19, 2017, 08:49:53 am
Hey I just noticed an ad on this board!    I thought this was supposed to be an ad-free board.    Well back to i-hub I guess.     ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 19, 2017, 09:26:23 am
GM quant...sounds like the raised beds made from pallet wood will look nice when you finish..a bit of work since most are oak I think and can be kinda hard to work with..results the way you describe will be worth the effort tho from a looks standpoint.If I have this figured out here I will show what a couple of mine look like using the IBC totes
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 19, 2017, 02:01:45 pm
Simple where do you get the totes
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 19, 2017, 02:04:33 pm
guess i'll settle for using wood
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 19, 2017, 03:01:15 pm
Jav..my son-in-law til a couple of years back was a mud engineer for a big oil services company..we got a bunch of the IBC totes free because of that.If youre on facebook you might put out feelers in your local area to find a source for them...for reason I already stated I didnt have to scrounge for them but its my understanding they are not too hard to find.Food grade would be best to deal with on cleanup but almost any can be cleaned with Dawn and elbow grease once tote is cut in half.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 19, 2017, 03:28:45 pm
Hey jav...looks like your praying over your garden(LOL)...thought I would show you some stuff from my greenhouse ..I do mainly hydroponics..several different methods BTW...will post a few shots of my lettuce..chinese cabbage..bak choi..peppers..tomatoes...cucumbers..dont have any charts to post that would be meaningful but posting a few shots of what I've been up to in my absence from you guys are kinda fun to look at anyway and gives me a few more chances to feel my way around here.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 19, 2017, 03:50:13 pm
A couple more of my stuff in hydroponics jav..then I'll let your jealosy subside and look for some charts to post and get back to business(LOL)..home made greenhouse and a shot through the door of my veggie jungle of peppers and tomatoes.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 19, 2017, 03:59:52 pm
I love this pair jav..AUD/NZD H4...am currently up 233 pips and looking for better consolidation to decide to lock profits or add short...these days I whipped my early exit and lament problems by simply not trading or closing til consolidation is solid..then I have to decide..otherwise I just let it run til market decides for me.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 19, 2017, 04:02:51 pm
Whoops...correction!..the AUD/NZD chart is daily..not H4..sorry bout that
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 19, 2017, 06:28:50 pm
simple i just scalped some nice short pips  on aud/nzd-will go back in again when i see an opportunity-thanks for the heads up-your garden and greenhouse looks great-yep a little jealous
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 19, 2017, 06:35:38 pm
Hey jav and simple......I'm jealous.     I haven't planted anything.     All I've done is sprayed weeds thus far this spring.    Spent the last month having skin cancer cut out and that took the wind out of my gardening sails.    I sprayed roundup on some and 5% vinegar with salt in other weed group and so far the vinegar is winning, though I'll need to give both groups a 2nd spray.    The only thing I've come across that really knocks the weeds out is "Groundclear" but I had some leftover roundup that I thought I would use up before buying the ground clear.      With my lab running around in the back I hate using anything there, but I'll be buying the ground clear for the front for sure.   I also have irrigation alterations to work out before I get stuck in with planting.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 19, 2017, 06:59:59 pm
Went ahead a few minutes ago and locked in nice  profits on 1/2 my AUD/NZD short  am a happy camper..even if it turns back north I can still make a nice profit on the rest even tho chasing it up!Win..win..win..any way I play it now!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 19, 2017, 08:27:09 pm
Very nice Simple! I see retirement hasn't hurt you any...you still know how to get dem pippies...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 19, 2017, 09:47:24 pm
OT -this is what Donna looked like when i told her i had accidentally burned up my cellphone with the trash lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 19, 2017, 09:49:43 pm
Did i mention i got a new cellphone-after i totally burned up my lawnmower -i got a new lawnmower-caution tho THIS MAY NOT WORK FOR YOU LOL
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 19, 2017, 09:58:08 pm
Jav, my wife looks at me like that pretty much on a daily basis...especially when I give her what she calls "sass"...lol!

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 19, 2017, 11:13:58 pm
CAD/JPY Weekly Chart

The potential profit on this pair is just too large to worry about fine tuning the entry. I just went long again after closing my last one above 81. TP set for 94.35. Long at 80.85.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 06:34:57 am
Pennies I'm watching  that one for now. If it retests your bottom trendline that's over 500 pips away. Price could turn at the 61.8 though but that's still over 70 pips away. Look what's potentially forming on the weekly though. Interesting.

(https://charts.mql5.com/14/778/cadjpy-w1-oanda-division1.png)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 20, 2017, 07:01:15 am
I bailed out on it for now Heavy for a couple pips profit. Theres plenty of time and still bearish potential so I'll wait it out. Went short on EJ for a bit. Longer term EJ chart still shows potential down to 104 or so.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 07:52:36 am
Yeah pennies EJ looks good for a short. Seems to be forming a rising wedge into resistance and the 38 fib on the daily. Looks tempting for sure.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 08:06:54 am
EJ weekly


(https://charts.mql5.com/14/779/eurjpy-w1-oanda-division1.png)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 20, 2017, 08:59:49 am
Hey jav..........that picture of your wife is unsettling.    Is that the look you get from her as she sits in her perch above you while you are stooped over your garden bed before she swoops down and shreds you to pieces?  LOL   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 20, 2017, 09:06:24 am
What's the consensus from you all on a potential bounce to the 38.2 fib level from this current USD/MXN daily wave down?   Today it's retracing yesterdays bullish candle from what may or may not be an actual wave bottom.

It's still a bit of a drop to the larger weekly 38.2 fib, but I'm wondering if it's worth the risk to take a long to at least the daily, or maybe even weekly 21MA.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 20, 2017, 09:52:27 am
Hey Heavy, I just looked at the EJ monthly setup. The TDI wave count there confirms another drop coming. Theres also an identical price action pattern forming. If the pattern is the same, EJ could drag out the rest of the month with little movement. But next month shows a drop of between 900 and 1000 pips straight down with little or no bounce.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 20, 2017, 09:54:19 am
Hey Qui. The movement we saw on Usd/Mxn seems to be a small TDI wave 3 movement. TDI wave 4 would ideally show a 71.6 fib retrace and then another strong move up, likely to another high above where it stopped.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 10:01:45 am
Pennies if that weekly cup and handle completes, then the drop will be massive. I'm seeing almost 3800 pips. It'll drop over 600 pips from current levels alone just to break the rim IMO. Time will tell though
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 20, 2017, 10:03:30 am
Thats a huge drop for sure. I had a fib expansion level at 104 from the long term charts but it can certainly drop further.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 10:47:25 am
Gonna try a small micro short on NU here @ .7021
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 20, 2017, 11:42:31 am
GM Heavyweight...I may be wrong but have been looking to open  on the long side on NZD/USD..started small buys at .7010...New Zealand had a bit of good news on dairy auction released about 21 hrs ago..3rd consecutive auction with better dairy prices...dairy production is their main export and this was especially good since typhoons back to back coulda really hurt them down there..heres a link to the release

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-country/news/article.cfm?c_id=16&objectid=11841409
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 11:46:27 am
Thanks Simple. I wasn't even aware of that news on NU. I'm sitting at a whopping 4 pips gain but no follow through at this point. I'll be closing it soon after that update.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 20, 2017, 01:16:32 pm
A look at H1 chart on N/U shows the big green candle after dairy auction report but lo and behold you can see its retraced all that nice move as you see it now...seems that the auction info is not a usual thing to be found from brokers news  but I have a habit of keeping up with it on my own because its vitally important to New Zealands economy.The main reason Kiwi is in its present toilet is because of dairy exports
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 01:44:36 pm
Simple I managed to get about 7 pips out of that NU short. You created some doubt in my mind so I got out. Lol. At least it wasn't a loss.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 20, 2017, 01:45:50 pm
Heres an M15 on NZD/USD....main reason I chose this TF to post is to show a bit of what the various sessions are/nave been doing to NU the last couple of days..at bottom you see I have the TDI in it but those dashes overlayed on TDI are sessions...green is London..red is US..white is aussies and new zealand and yellow is Japan.Notice white(Australia and nz)..NU has seen sharp rises during their session with some follow through from Japan..BUT London has stomped last couple of days and US followed their lead.Would be nice if 100% predictive..IOW when Auckland opens that would mean a nice runup on NU.Wouldnt stake my life on it tho(LOL)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 01:58:00 pm
Hmmm.. That's an interesting indicator Simple. I had to read that post several times to get the concept down. How accurate /near accurate is that thing anyways?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 20, 2017, 02:35:30 pm
The indicator is dead on Heavy..its simply an indicator for various market open and close times..best I have seen yet..wish I could remember where I got it but been too long ago ...Its named Market%20Hours....I have googled for it with no success because its something I think most folks would love to have and wanted to simply post a link for interested parties.Maybe sooner or later I can remember where I got it..if I do I will give the link
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 02:40:42 pm
Ok thanks. I'll see it I can find if as well
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 20, 2017, 03:45:05 pm
EJ Daily and Weekly Charts

Ok, finally made it back home. Here's my take on EJ as of right now. Near term, it should head down to 113.15. That's based on the daily FE expansion setup and the TDI count.

Next, the weekly chart...it shows a downside target of of 103.055 at the FE 61.8 level.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 20, 2017, 04:55:52 pm
Tks pennies........I just entered a small long on USD/MXN based for the most part on how far below the weekly 21MA price is.  Doesn't mean there won't be some downside potential but I'll add if there is as usual.    Target is a bit below the weekly 21MA.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 20, 2017, 05:00:20 pm
Simple........I want that shiny new indicator too!     :)

Seriously, I'd love to see how often the different market times played out the same from day to day and week to week.    It looks like it could be fairly insightful.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 20, 2017, 05:30:45 pm
Its the best I've found quant...dont know where I got it and google is no help...its called Market%20Hours
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 06:13:14 pm
There goes NU.....
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 06:20:40 pm
Long UJ here @ 109.39
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 20, 2017, 06:53:48 pm
Lesson learned Heavyweight..ignore me(LOL)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 20, 2017, 07:18:32 pm
Naw Simple, I get lucky every once in a while but you guys are consistent. I'm no dummy, I usually consider yours/others insight. Hell that was only about 27 pips. Nothing to gloat about if I was that kind of person.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 20, 2017, 09:59:07 pm
Price targets within Boxes

This is something I've noticed on a very regular basis. Most of us are familiar with the box breakout method in its standard form. I don't rely on it as a stand alone method by any means...only as a confirmation tool along with other TA data.

A while back, Jav brought something to the board using a slight twist on the box breakout method that is used by a trader on another forum. In that forum, he basically used line charts to look for breaks of support and resistance along a trendline and then used box measurements along the length of that trendline to estimate potential targets at the other end of the box.

Attached is the EJ daily chart using that method. But the main thing I wanted to point out here is that time and time again I've seen price move to the 61.8 fib retrace inside the 2nd box and then stall out for a while. That 61.8 level in the 2nd box seems to be a primary factor not only in the revised box method but also in the standard box breakout method.

The EJ daily chart (using the modified box method with line charts) shows a near term target of 109 or so. That also jives with the current TDI wave count which is showing a Wave 4 retrace to be followed by a 5th wave down.

I've also attached an NU chart using the line chart method. In the case of NU, the boxes are set up using the standard box breakout method. Notice what happened right after the 61.8 retrace got hit. It went slightly beyond it and then bounced significantly. I've seen this play out over and over again on pretty much any time frame but the higher time frames seem to be the most reliable.

EJ chart first followed by NU chart example...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 21, 2017, 06:58:46 am
Called Measure moves pennies. We used to use the boxes a lot but I guess we kinda got away from that.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 21, 2017, 07:13:16 am
Yep, thats right Heavy. When used as a confirmation tool instead of a stand alone method, it works well.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 21, 2017, 07:51:13 am
Pretty much speaks for itself.....


(https://charts.mql5.com/14/791/audjpy-d1-oanda-division1.png)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 21, 2017, 09:50:24 am
I guess I wasn't paying attention in class when the boxes were taught.    I can see that the boxes are stacked edge to edge and all are of equal width or pips in depth/distance top to bottom, but how is the initial box set to the chart?    Are you placing on most recent waves on any given time frame or what?    ???

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 21, 2017, 09:55:07 am
Basically Qui all you're looking for in the box method is a point of consolidation with multiple touches inside the box at the edges. Once price breaks away from the box, you just place another box even with the edge of the first one with the expectation that price will at least move to the 61.8 fib level in the second box. Remember the fib boxes that we used on IHUB that Simple showed us? Its basically the same thing. Breaks along a diagonal trend line are a bit trickier. Jav had a link to some Youtube videos showing that method.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 21, 2017, 10:02:21 am
Simple........seeing you post charts with your tunnel has me reviewing them and still don't see how to apply it for effective trading EXCEPT for this:

Once price has reversed into a new trend, more often than not, during a 3rd wave price will pull back to the same trend line whether it's the 62ema or the 121 ema or a deeper ema trend line.   

I've trained my brain to immediately look for opposing price action zones for consideration of long term targets, but I need to spend some more time with the tunnel to see how I might interpret it to price action to get a feel for which price action zone target is likely to be the first hit.

Oh, and I suppose there's no way to overlay one time frame tunnel over another is there?    Scratch that......an overlay isn't what I need, and wouldn't work anyway, but I can simply place multi-time frame charts next to each other to see the correlation.      What would be really helpful would be to use a large screen tv for a monitor to look at all the time frames on the same screen.    The small computer monitor is a bit tough to see all the small charts clearly.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 21, 2017, 10:04:23 am
I'll have to go back and check out those vids pennies and thanks for the orientation!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 21, 2017, 10:06:11 am
Btw pennies...... can you see where you might be able to use the tunnel to aid in laying those boxes down or interpreting higher odds of price making it to the 61.8 fib in the second box?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 21, 2017, 12:38:43 pm
quant the Quad Tunnel is still by far the best tool I ever designed...regardless of anything in my charts the chart is IMO incomplete without all the info the QT displays at a glance..not much time these days for scalping but when I do I use M1 or M5 chart and Quad Tunnel...for those TFs it still works but when you use it on H4 or daily the QT is VERY difficult to cross on the first touch and usually reverses a pair.Cant tell you how may good trades I've made using H4 and Quad Tunnel..if a pair easily blows through H4 QT you can bet its news driven!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 23, 2017, 02:12:09 pm
Pre-market is showing some massive gaps up on pairs like EJ and UJ and EU. EJ is up to nearly 121 already. That's almost 400 pips from where we closed Friday. I closed out my last EJ short Friday. Somebody is slap happy with the Euro and the Yen crosses big time.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 23, 2017, 02:14:40 pm
Here's why...French election is going the way they want it to go...

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/french-elections-eur-usd-climbs-to-four-week-highs-at-market-open-201704231911
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 23, 2017, 04:17:05 pm
Shorting ACAD here. TP set for 0.9965.

Daily Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 24, 2017, 05:51:48 am
Pennies, I was in an AJ short that was up 41 pips right up until the close on Friday then the spread at the close wiped out all of it except 5 pips. I held it over the weekend and luckily I escaped the massive gaps at the open on Sunday like the other pairs. On the sidelines for now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 24, 2017, 05:55:30 am
Yeah I'm leaving the yen crosses alone for right now Heavy. I'm getting mixed signals depending on which time frame I look at so its better to stand aside on those pairs and let them play out. Only trades I have going are Acad, Ucad, and Nu...all shorts.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 24, 2017, 07:12:29 am
Closed the Acad short for a bit over 40 pips profit...a little over 1%. Price is getting a bit choppy and the first pullback from a new high is rarely seen without a retest of the high again. Plenty of time to get back in later. One brick at a time builds the wall. 😄

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 24, 2017, 08:49:41 am
Simple........I've got six different time frame charts on the pairs I'm watching layed out on the screen so I can see all at once and it's nice because since patterns tend to play out the same more often than not, this allows me to look at how price action plays out on one time frame and candle pattern to compare with another time frame with the same pattern in relation to the QT on that time frame.   The only downside to the tunnel is that the lines get in the way of the candles at times but I can just look at another chart without the tunnel to get past that issue.   

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 24, 2017, 10:42:18 am
Back in short on Acad again at 1.0210. Probably early.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 24, 2017, 12:28:59 pm
I've joined your Acad short pennies.    Short at 1.02163.    It does look good here on the lower time frame charts for a pull-back to the 4 hour 21MA, but it looks like its just getting started on it's move up when looking at the daily and weekly charts.     So I'm looking for some degree of pull-back, but maybe a trip to the 4 hour fresh PAZ is in the cards to approx 1.03104 to 1.02 before it makes any real pull-back or reversal.    Guess we'll see.    Of course it could pull back at any fib or place along the way to that PAZ but I'm in now and will add as necessary, as usual.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 24, 2017, 01:17:27 pm
This is just a TDI wave 4 play for me Qui. I wait for the 71.6 retrace after a Wave 3 TDI shows up and then I pull the trigger regardless. It can certainly still go up further but the reward to risk ratio for a high odds trade is good. I just let er rip and wait for the money...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 24, 2017, 05:45:01 pm
Hey pennies.......are you referring to an end to your daily wave 4 on the chart you posted earlier, which would offer up a wave 5 down on the TDI indi?     And begin a wave 4 down on the price action?    Yes?   No?  lol

I was really expecting the previous 4 hour candle to make a 20 pip pull back before sending the current candle higher.   There was no pullback.    Oh well...     Guess I'm just waiting for the next fib to get hit; 78.6 fib.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 24, 2017, 05:46:42 pm
This level on the fib Qui represents a TDI wave 4 termination which leads to a 5th wave down. The 5th wave is always the best one to play on the TDI counts.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 24, 2017, 06:19:50 pm
Ok pennies......I'm on the same page with you.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 24, 2017, 06:25:55 pm
Pennies, I'm gonna stay on the sidelines for now with that ACAD short. Seems to be more bullish than bearish to me. It can certainly head to 1.0510 (200+ pips) before the turn. I know you are mostly early but I couldn't be that early.... GL though

(https://charts.mql5.com/14/820/audcad-w1-oanda-division1-3.png)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 24, 2017, 06:32:51 pm
Took 25 pips on the CAD/JPY short. I should've held until the gap filled but I wont be greedy.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 24, 2017, 06:34:03 pm
Definitely can't rule out something like that Heavy. But I'm prepared for anything. I'm always ready to add later if needed. I just follow the TDI wave count like an obedient puppy and let it lead me where it will...LOL! The TDI wave count setup has been really good to me for quite a while now so I try not to second guess it anymore even if I get in early.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 24, 2017, 06:38:16 pm
Well we small account people gotta get close to our entries. Lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 24, 2017, 06:39:49 pm
LOL! Nah...that's the beauty of it Heavy. Account size doesn't matter at all. Its all about percentages. Just adjust the percentage of risk and all the stress goes away.  :D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 24, 2017, 06:44:15 pm
I know. It's hard not to consider pips though. It was part of the learning process since day 1. I'll get there though....one day
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 24, 2017, 06:52:03 pm
No doubt about that Heavy. The way I learned that the number of pips don't matter came from a knowledgeable trader that gave me a great example. He showed me how you can make money with negative pips for the day. If you enter long on a given pair like EU for 10,000 units, for example, and you lose 40 pips, you've lost 40 bucks. But then you can enter another EU trade for 100,000 units and make ten pips of profit and come out with 100 - 40 = 60 bucks profit for the day but with a negative 30 pips total count.

Once I had that down, I realized that pips are only relevant based on the number of units you're trading...they have no value in and of themselves. So 200 pips on a larger time frame isn't any different that 20 pips on a smaller time frame as long as the number of units is adjusted properly.

Once I got to that point in my mental trading, I found I no longer had to worry about news or anything else...all I had to do was follow the technicals and wait. So far, at least, its worked out well.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 24, 2017, 07:23:50 pm
Thanks pennies. Now I'm gonna have to read that post like 3 more times to understand it. Lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 24, 2017, 10:25:34 pm
I agree Heavy gotta read his post a couple of times lol-brain too tired tonight-maybe will reread it in the morning-goodnight all
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 03:26:02 am
Long term short on EJ at 120.147 entered this morning. Finally got a bird's eye view on what's happening. Major sell off coming but not till this month ends and next month begins.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 03:31:33 am
Mmmm.....yesss...clear the mind we must, to understand the mysteries of Forex.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 07:23:02 am
Triple top on Ucad. Time to load the boat on shorts.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 25, 2017, 07:38:03 am
UCAD looks good Pennies. Rising wedge into resistance and @ 161 FE. Low risk entry IMO.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 07:39:44 am
Agreed Heavy. I've got a bit over 2 full lots short here. Binge or bust...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 25, 2017, 07:55:35 am
Money maker Lol. Trying to push through resistance looks like. Should be dying soon
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 07:56:38 am
Yeah the pattern suggested a slight new high first.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 25, 2017, 08:50:50 am
Chart please.......UCAD.     :-\
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 08:55:51 am
Sorry Qui. I'm away from the computer. I'm on mobile only till later today.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 25, 2017, 09:01:06 am
Ucad just looks to be moving up to the fresh daily PAZ to me pennies.    Y'all could be right on, but I'm missing the pattern you see for sure.     Probably missing out on another good trade, but I'm just too nervous with that 500 to 800 pips north it could make if it isn't ready to break down into the tunnel.     

I'll be away from my computer too a fair amount of the day as I'm in middle of replacing ball joints on my jeep.     What a pita when they mate aluminum parts to steel and they corrode together.    Even the BFH isn't enough to break loose those parts  sometimes.   I really was hoping to wake up to Acad gains or getting in to another high odds trade before getting stuck in to working on the vehicle.     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 10:41:05 am
Market has gone totally bonkers. S&P 2 days and 2 days with gaps up at the open. Looks like a capitulation run.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 11:15:10 am
Everything I see on multiple time frames for Ucad says the spike today is a TDI wave 2 retrace. Wave 3 down to follow.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 25, 2017, 12:18:53 pm
Got caught in an AJ short in anticipation of filling the gap. We'll see how long I can hang on to it
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 04:39:11 pm
UCAD Daily Chart

Here's the chart you wanted earlier Qui. The whole thing is a large corrective sequence. Large leg down coming next, then another leg back north later on. But shorts are in play from here on out.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 25, 2017, 08:31:37 pm
Hmm......well it's the wave back up that makes me too nervous to go short on Ucad pennies.    That, plus I'm already short Acad and U/DKK.     I expect I'll be missing out again, but I like keeping my risk low enough to survive the chaos.    Especially being in U/DKK which is probably doing nothing for my low risk strategy.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 08:58:31 pm
Qui, if you're short USD/DKK right now you might want to seriously consider taking profits here. EU is hitting a potential resistance level at 1.0950. Its only the first potential resistance level so far based on the mathematical extensions I posted about several days ago but if this level holds, EU will drop back and USD/DKK will begin to rise again.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 09:05:40 pm
Revised ACAD short target based on current peak price during TDI wave 4...

Daily Chart...

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 25, 2017, 09:11:11 pm
To be honest, I did take profits earlier today but then reentered a little later thinking I was going to miss out on further profits.    So I'm 70 pips under on my latest short.    I know, not a good move.   

And I'm down on my long hedge position in my 2nd account from 7.02605.     I'd like to add here to bring myself back to even on my long but I'm afraid of more downward price action before the gap fills from Sunday.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 09:16:11 pm
Yep, have to be careful of that Qui. I was just telling a good buddy of mine that's learning to trade that closing a position for profits and then re-entering the same position for fear of missing out is always a bad idea unless you have a solid, clear-cut idea based on TA for a target further away. Its an account killer.

I used to do the same thing back when I was learning to trade and it cost me dearly. Think of it this way...when we close a position for profits, we do it for a reason. Re-opening a position on the same pair in the same direction negates our reason for taking profit in the first place, which means one of the 2 decisions is wrong automatically....usually, its the 2nd decision thats wrong in my experience.   ;)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 25, 2017, 09:22:35 pm
The confusion for me on U/DKK is that price is at a descending line of support on the daily chart, but at the same time, it is not at a price action zone on the daily so I feel there is more to be made by holding it as it moves against myself and adding again a little later.    Plus I don't feel safe yet adding to my long based on the daily chart so why would I close out my short?    Anyway, it is at some support here in this descending wedge on the daily and I don't know what to really expect for sure.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 09:22:40 pm
Shorting GU at 1.2842. I've got 4 different fib measurements showing confluence in this area. TP set for 1.2565.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 25, 2017, 09:29:21 pm
I'm out now on my U/Dkk short and I'm going to simply try and get my long back to profit if I can.    I think I've had enough of the hedging the same pair in two accounts for now at least.    Makes me too uncomfortable.   

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 09:31:19 pm
The confusion for me on U/DKK is that price is at a descending line of support on the daily chart, but at the same time, it is not at a price action zone on the daily so I feel there is more to be made by holding it as it moves against myself and adding again a little later.    Plus I don't feel safe yet adding to my long based on the daily chart so why would I close out my short?    Anyway, it is at some support here in this descending wedge on the daily and I don't know what to really expect for sure.

Remember Qui, everything is based on TA. USD/DKK is the inverse of EU so if EU does top out right here, EU will fall and USD/DKK will rise. Of course, only you can determine what your risk tolerance is and you do have a hedge position running so your cumulative risk isn't as heavy because of that.

Here's the EU chart I have. EU has hit the first real resistance level here but can rise a bit more (maybe 40 to 50 pips) before running headlong into the next one right above it.

We also have the TDI mapping out a full 5 wave sequence in an expanding diagonal as price is moving in a contracting diagonal.

Put it all together and it makes sense to not plan on EU moving up much more from here which means USD/DKK most likely has limited downside from here.

All IMO of course...I don't want to talk anyone out of a trade. I'm just presenting the TA evidence as it appears on the chart.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 25, 2017, 09:47:46 pm
I just added to my long here.    My short is closed and I'll add another long later if necessary.    Thanks pennies.    I think your assessment is probably right on.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 09:48:42 pm
I just added to my long here.    My short is closed and I'll add another long later if necessary.    Thanks pennies.    I think your assessment is probably right on.   

You never know Qui...I've been wrong before...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 25, 2017, 09:52:24 pm
I know.    But regardless, I'm too nervous trading both ways.    I didn't think I would be, but I'm far more comfortable adding to my losers in one account than two.   

Actually, you are very seldom wrong, just early almost all the time.   lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 25, 2017, 09:57:19 pm
Ok, that's all for me tonight.     I'll be checking in again tomorrow at some point.    Gotta have some adaptors cut for my ball joint kit and it's going to be driving family around too now that we are down to one vehicle till I get that dang chrysler product back on the road.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 25, 2017, 09:59:24 pm
Ok, that's all for me tonight.     I'll be checking in again tomorrow at some point.    Gotta have some adaptors cut for my ball joint kit and it's going to be driving family around too now that we are down to one vehicle till I get that dang chrysler product back on the road.

I'm not sure exactly why but the words "cut" and "ball" in the same sentence just made me wince...ROFL!

Have a good one Qui.  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 12:23:35 am
Added EJ short at 121.96.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 02:00:56 am
Took a bit over 79 pips total profit on GU short, one EJ short, and the ACAD short for now. Good for another 1.36% profit. Gonna wait and see how today does before going back in on those pairs. Tops often get tested repeatedly so there's plenty of time to trade them again later after these initial moves.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 07:12:56 am
Added a UCAD flipper back in on the partial retrace this morning. The overall pattern looks really good for a nice drop over the next few weeks.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 08:37:40 am
Finally closed out my last NU short. It was a too early entry so no real profit on it. Only trades going now are shorts on EJ and UCAD.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 08:51:37 am
Morning all.   Hope everyone is full of hopium to start the day and not full of other things.   I know that first cup of coffee cleared me of something holding me back from being the best I can first thing this morning.    Now that I've taxied my wife to work I can focus on my own.    Like those dang ball joints after I see my son off to his college classes in a bit over an hour.   Speaking of ball joints.....that was a highly illustrative and unsettling combination of words you quoted last night pennies!   

So your expectations for U/DKK were right on.    I'm not shocked but pleasantly surprised that price did actually bounce off that line of support.    But now what?   The next line of support on the daily is the ascending line off two long candles; one in early March and the other in early November.    Question in my mind is whether price will move down to and even through that line of support before moving up to the descending line of resistance above forming the top line of the descending wedge first.   I highly doubt that gap was any exhaustion gap so I'm curious whether it will get filled any time soon.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 08:53:26 am
Morning Qui. I'm staying clear of EU in any way, shape or form for now. ECB press conference is tomorrow morning and that usually produces some wild swings. At this point, it's best to just stand aside of EU and USD/DKK.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 08:58:09 am
Hmmmmm..     You know me; not sure I can do that, but I am going to consider it.     :-\
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 09:17:24 am
Pennies........what forex news source do you follow again, and why??
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 09:19:15 am
Forexfactory.com is the one I use Qui. No particular reason...its just the one I like.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 09:21:55 am
Thanks......just curious.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 09:44:21 am
Looks like simplegreen has returned to retirement status.    And where's everyone else?     It seems so lonely here today.    Just me and pennies and all my indecision, though I did end up closing out my U/DKK long from last night a few minutes ago.       
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 26, 2017, 09:45:45 am
I'm watching Quan. You are not alone lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 09:50:16 am
Hey Heavy........good morning to you.     You may not be looking at it at all, but if you are....what are thoughts on USD/DKK?    The gap down from Sunday.......the descending wedge on the daily chart.....the weekly pattern that appears to be a topping pattern to me....etc.   

And what are you currently holding a position in right now?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 09:55:38 am
Heavy......."lurking" is the term "they" use to describe your presence when I felt so alone.     Strange term.    It sounds kinda creepy but kinda benign all at the same time.   I lurk frequently myself but usually it's because either I'm just stopping by to quickly view new posts while doing other things, or it's because I don't have anything of any value to say.    Kinda like right now.   LOL
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 26, 2017, 10:04:25 am
Lol lurking is exactly what I'm doing. Haha.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 26, 2017, 10:06:44 am
Quan, I actually split time between forex and pennystocks (my first love) then occasionally binary options so I bounce back and forth between boards. Keeps me busy for sure
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 10:07:40 am
No doubt!    How's things for you in penny land?   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 26, 2017, 10:20:00 am
It makes me pull my hair out that is for sure. I'm learning to just ride the wave rather than looking at the fundamentals. Doesn't make sense when you think about it.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 10:30:27 am
Heavy........a decade or so ago I bought $1,800 worth of ADOT (advanced optics electronics) based on a bullish engulfing candle when it was at .0012 as I remember it and then my mother had a stroke and passed away a couple days later.    After the funeral and siblings had left for home I turned the computer on and remembered to check my account, thinking I'd probably lost much of my money but instead I had $30k in it from the bounce that had occurred.   I would have sold off too soon had I been looking at it daily.   The only blessing from my mothers miserable passing.   Of course being a penny stock, it moved to triple zero and disappeared.   

A couple years later I had $10k of that $30K on CMKX at .0001 and got caught up in the naked shorting b.s. story by the CEO and ended up holding it till it was worth $100K at .001 but instead of selling, I held out for a penny and it never happened.    The company truly seemed to be a legitimate business but it's only business was selling shares.     I payed off debt with the remaining $20K and watched the $10K dwindle down to nothing.   I lost my enthusiasm for the penny stocks.   I know you can still get lucky, but it's a lot harder to because the volume is usually too low to make the risk worth the **** to me.

I may dabble in it again, but unless I had a couple grand to throw at it, it's pointless.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 26, 2017, 10:38:34 am
Wow Quan, you did a lot better than I did. I did have about 3 that I actually sold for a lose but they turned out to be winners worth a total of $130k. I still kick myself over those. They do take up a lot of time cause they pop at any moment then disappear just as fast. All I need is 1 or 2 though to go my way then I'm set.

Sorry to hear about your mom
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 10:48:14 am
Thanks Heavy.     To be honest with you I wish I had spent a little more time with her and a little less time focused on the trading.    Despite that hugely winning trade.    She also had cancer but didn't find out until being ambulanced to the hospital where they did a full exam on her after the stroke.    If I had spent more time with her it may have made no difference in her outcome, but it might have made her outlook a little brighter.   

Regarding Fundamentals......imo, it is a useless consideration for penny stocks.    The penny market was supposedly cleaned up a bit with the reporting requirements categories established etc, but the reality is that the vast majority of them are either dreams that will never become a reality for many reasons, especially debt and bankruptcy for that specific company or the company is built on deceit and illusion imo where debt and bankruptcy is still to be expected.    Fundamentals are of little value when it comes to picking the next runner imo.    It's volume with a promising b.s. story like CMKX was, and or it's luck.    The bait will always be rejected and spit out by the school of fish, but the question is when.    I do think though that if you watch the small cap stocks as they death spiral, you will find those like ADOT that are good for an infrequent bounce based on chart technicals.    If I ever began to trade the cheap stocks again, that's what I would be looking to trade.    The company stock value becomes trashed but then they put out a few pr's telling of some hope for pulling out of the death spiral and the stock price bounces, but then realities set in again and the decline resumes.   

I wish you very good luck with it though.    And if you do mention a really good trade it might help give me inspiration to return to trading.    The first time I actually borrowed money to trade with.   I won't do that again, even though it did work for me at the time.    We've torn up our credit cards so if we can't afford it, we can't afford it.     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 10:49:36 am
Were those 3 trades all .0001 stocks or were they priced higher when you bought them?

Another reason to look for the technical bounces on the loser small caps for me Heavy is that they can be traded technically instead of simply buying and holding for weeks and months hoping they actually pop out of the .0001 basement one day.   

Ok, time to get back to the jeep.    Talk later.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 26, 2017, 11:21:25 am
Quan, I agree with you 100%. My goal was and is to ride the fluff BS to make a small percentage then get out. I have gotten out of the triple zero area because they do sit for weeks and months sometimes longer with little to no movement. I have moved up the chain so to speak to the .002-.003 range low float stocks so at least they are off the floor and they show some type of movement. Last week I rode the ABBY wave from .0029 -.01 It got as high as .019 but I was within the 3 day settlement period from a prior sale so I had to hold it. By the time the settlement period was over it had fallen back to .01. So instead of turning $170 into $1000, I only made about $400. Still not bad though but oh well. I'll keep you in mind if something good comes along. Low floaters are the way to go for me.

 I guess we better get back to Forex before Pennies ban us from the board. Lol.

P.S. Don't blame yourself for things you can't control. What will be...will be.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 11:50:20 am
EUR/NZD Daily Chart

Time to short it for the gap fill. TP set for 1.53 to hit well above the gap.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 26, 2017, 11:58:19 am
Still holding that AJ short hoping for the gap fill pennies. Thing went 107 pips against me but I held on thinking it had to fill eventually lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 11:59:22 am
Yep, I think they're all getting ready to fill Heavy.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 26, 2017, 12:02:33 pm
That's what I'm hoping soon anyways
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 03:36:25 pm
Checking in for a couple before heading out again...

Heavy....if you doubled your money on ABBY then you did well.    I can't bring up their chart with either Stockcharts.com or Tradingview.com.     I remember the ticker from many months ago though.

If I were to start scanning charts again, I'd be looking for the stock that has dropped below a penny for the first time ever.    It's a rare find to find a good bouncer.    Things are not what they were back in 2002.    But if I did have a couple thousand to play with, I'd be looking at charts again nonetheless.     If all you traded was a couple hundred and doubled your money, then maybe I ought to see if I can't fund my account with less than a few hundred and see if I can't get back into the game with a fresh perspective.    So many things going on right now makes it a challenge though.   

If we don't mention pennies name, or if we type softly on our keyboards, maybe he won't notice us. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 03:42:17 pm
Joined your E/NZD short pennies.    Definitely at that top line of resistance on the daily channel.    Of course I feel like it's going higher, but then I always do expect the worse in a trade.   

Ok, I'm out for a bit again.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 04:23:57 pm
Back again for a couple.

Say pennies......I'm surprised you are short Eur/Nzd with tomorrows ECB press conference which does show as a high impact item according to Forex.com calendar page flag color.   

Also, are you expecting a 5th price action wave down with a TDI wave 3 down, before price moves up through your descending channel?   

Finally, my chart shows the top of the gap being at 1.5382.    Did you mean to say that your TP was at 1.54, or did you really mean 1.53?   Either way it's around 400 pips so it'd be a good trade.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 05:07:09 pm
Hey Qui. No, I meant 1.53. I've checked the candle close on both the Oanda original platform and the MT 4 platform and they both show the gap well below 1.53.

I'm not worried about the press conference at this point. I just noticed the channel on EUR/NZD, saw the TDI wave count at a potential Wave 2 top with Wave 3 down coming next, and hopped in. If I'm wrong, its not a big deal. I can always add later since I take low risk entries to start with.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 05:07:55 pm

If we don't mention pennies name, or if we type softly on our keyboards, maybe he won't notice us.

I heard that, Qui...ROFL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 05:15:06 pm
pennies......I'll just take your word for it.   Surprising though that my charts don't agree with yours on the gap.   I can never hold long enough to make it to the TP mark so it's a non-issue really.     

Listen I just want you to know that Heavy started talking about stocks first.    Why, I wouldn't even have talked about it except for him.   So we're good right?   LOL
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 05:17:32 pm
LOL! No worries Qui. Heck, I don't mind what we talk about here. The board belongs to everyone and its wide open for discussion, no matter what it is. The only reason I would ever ban anyone would be if we got a member who was being hateful to another member, like the guy I had to bust on IHUB that time in the Green room.

Other than that, its all gravy and groovy.  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 05:21:06 pm
Cool.    I was just kiddin' about Heavy startin' in about stocks btw.     :D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 05:23:25 pm
Lol! I know. I'm sure Heavy didn't mind you throwing him under the bus...rofl!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 05:31:17 pm
You can bet he's going to go out of his way to give me a heads up on the next hot stock tip now.    Meeza might as well be dead.......wait....., what iza mezza sayin?     l
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 05:39:51 pm
Hey pennies.....I was never a huge star wars fan, but I saw them all and liked them for the most part despite the jar-jar character and some of the other corny looking aliens.     And I have to admit that they did a pretty good job of tying them all together with the "Force Awakens" first followed by the more recent "Rogue One".    If you can just remember which one you are watching in the chronological order of the books.      My kids sure like the series.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 05:41:40 pm
Hey pennies.....I was never a huge star wars fan, but I saw them all and liked them for the most part despite the jar-jar character and some of the other corny looking aliens.     And I have to admit that they did a pretty good job of tying them all together with the "Force Awakens" first followed by the more recent "Rogue One".    If you can just remember which one you are watching in the chronological order of the books.      My kids sure like the series.   

Man, I love Star Wars. As a matter of fact, I'm a Sci-Fi nut...Star Wars, Star Trek, the Aliens Series, etc. I can watch em over and over.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 05:46:14 pm
Can you imagine what a great show "Star Trek" would be if the original characters had been born and casted into the show 40 years later?     The "special effects" now with the original cast?     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 05:52:08 pm
Can you imagine what a great show "Star Trek" would be if the original characters had been born and casted into the show 40 years later?     The "special effects" now with the original cast?   

Yep, that would be awesome. I watched the Star Trek Next Generation series front to back and each movie, and I loved the fact they brought in some of the original members. And the new Star Trek movies are really cool. I guess Kirk and Sulu are about the only key characters still alive at this point.

If you like reading science fiction, you'd probably love a writer called Isaac Asimov. He was my absolute favorite when I was growing up. He was a very intelligent man and held several degrees including PHD's in areas like chemistry and physics. He's the one who originally came up with the 3 Laws of Robotics that you hear about all the time. The I Robot movie with Will Smith was based on one of his written stories. He did short stories and novels. His best series by far was the Foundation series...its a real mind blower.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 06:07:24 pm
I know he's sold a lot of SciFi books.    Never read any of them but I assumed he was educated, though not necessarily one or more PHDs.   

I never saw I Robot, but I'll probably search it out now that its been out a while.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 26, 2017, 06:10:02 pm
Quan, Uhura is still alive as well if I'm not mistaken and thanks for throwing me under the bus lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 06:10:12 pm
Bicentennial Man was another Asimov story too Qui.

If you really want to get a feel for what Asimov could do, I would suggest starting with his Robot series of short stories. You can get the book for less than 10 dollars on Amazon. The Foundation Series started as a trilogy and expanded later into a full 7 book novel series. Caves of Steel is also very good. The robot R. Daneel Olivaw is a primary character there and he shows up in a few different places in Asimov's writings.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 26, 2017, 06:10:54 pm
Quan, Uhura is still alive as well if I'm not mistaken and thanks for throwing me under the bus lol

Yep, you're right Heavy. I forgot about her.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 06:12:06 pm
Oh hey Heavy.......so how are ya doin'?    :-[     Lolol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 26, 2017, 06:13:42 pm
All is well Quan. Still waiting on AJ to get back to break even.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 26, 2017, 06:18:56 pm
Oh and I'm trying to decide what color Ferrari 488 I'm gonna get. I'm about $350k short but I'm almost there  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: simplegreen on April 26, 2017, 06:19:46 pm
Hey quant ..not really back to retirement mode..never left it(LOL)..always so busy with all this "time on my hands"...just not much to say about the market...am giving it a chance to cool off and glad I took profits friday on NZD/USD...good fundamental news hasnt been able to offset later news that IMO was nothing but fluff but the market makes the rules..not me!Am considering long N/U again now if smoke ever really clears ..otherwise I'm pretty well on the side til the infamous Euromongers  finish their little game for the umpteenth time..been there..done that..and still got the T-Shirt(LOL)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 06:20:25 pm
Heavy.......I've often wished I had a couple fellow traders to scan through stock charts with me in order to maximize the odds of actually coming across one that was good to take a trade on.     Just going through the alphabetical list.   

Maybe something worth considering in the future if it sounds like a good idea to you.    Of course we'd have to keep it on the down-low somewhat so it doesn't become a stock board, but there are just too many loser stocks to sift through for one person.   

Time for some din-dins.    I'll be on later.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 26, 2017, 06:23:20 pm
Simple.......I'll say hi before checking out for dinner here.    Euromongers....lol    I meant to add the earlier that the other insight I gleaned from the quad tunnel......the further away from the two tunnels price is, the better.     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 27, 2017, 08:01:45 am
Added EZ short after the pop. Its dead from here.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 27, 2017, 08:11:06 am
NU could be bottoming soon here. That should accelerate the sell off on EZ.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 27, 2017, 08:18:07 am
EU is set up now for an accelerated sell off. Deep drops coming for EJ, EU, and EZ.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 09:05:07 am
Morning pennies.     So with an expected E/U selloff, you'd then predict a move up on USD/DKK?    And what would be your TP if you were long on USD/DKK?    An updated chart would be enjoyed though I doubt you are at your computer right now.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 09:13:28 am
I was driving family to their destinations this morning so I missed the opportune time to enter a fresh ideal long this morning so I just entered 300 or more pips above where I could have earlier this morning..   I'm sure I'll regret it but hopefully not for weeks or months because I only close loser trades when the losses are in the pennies; pennies.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 10:00:19 am
Morning all. I finally went green on AJ for a half lot and took profits. Took forever seems like. Green 101 pips on AJ short but only for a micro. Sad.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 10:23:50 am
CAD/JPY weekly appears to be setting up for a nice move up guys. That IHS looks like approx. 1150 pips and it's at the point of max opportunity here at the 61.8 FIB also just above the lower trendline of a monthly triangle. A Doji has already printed signalling a possible reversal is coming IMO. Just my thoughts.

(https://charts.mql5.com/14/855/cadjpy-w1-oanda-division1.png)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 11:23:09 am
Morning Heavy.    Good to be back in profit.    It do seem to take too long to get right sometimes, once your wrong on the short term, even if you are right on the long term.     

I get no confidence in the daily, weekly or monthly chart for taking either a long or short for CadJ myself.   You might be right, but I sure don't know.    Maybe somebody else has a firm grip on which direction it's headed from here.    Is it in a TDI wave 5 down on the daily now?    Or is this a wave 1 down on the daily?     I can't even place a good TDI wave count as usual.

Your IHS pattern along with the semi-supporting trend line (now that it was broken it seems semi to me) does give a possible bullish reversal potential and there was a break of the daily TDI wave top trend line  so maybe it's trying to reverse but I can't be comfortable with it either way.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 11:35:08 am
Quan, it does seem to me it takes longer for profits than losses. I can't for the life of me sell at the top but I'm damn good at selling at the bottom. Lol. I'm the wrong one to ask about counting waves. I've never been able to master that on a consistent basis. The problem for me with longer time frames are that price can move hundreds of pips before the turn so we could be right on direction but early....way early. It was tough looking at a 110 pip move against me and not close it and I guess that has to do with size and account balance. If I had a big account then a 100 pip swing wouldn't bother me as much.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 11:40:03 am
Quan, the broken trendline to me indicates a premature breakout IMO. Most triangle patterns have them and that signals that a move one way or the other is coming. Plus remember that a break on a lower time frame can still just be a wick on a higher time frame.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 11:54:21 am
Same for me Heavy.    Always early and I can't blame pennies.    It's frustrating because I can almost always get in and see immediate profits by 10 pips or so even discounting the spread, but then thanks to the spread, if I don't take profits immediately once I have them, then I will find myself either deeply under water, or underwater as deep as my profits would have been and then its a waiting game before I finally see profits again either way.   Usually a long waiting game.    That's why I really like scalping but I can't get comfortable scalping large enough positions to make the scalping worth the risk since I DON'T ALWAYS get the perfect entry.    As far as pennies TDI wave counting goes......there's either more to it then he's able to put into words or it's an illusion, or it just hasn't clicked for me, just as the tunnel seems to be pointless for finding a new opposing reversal spot once a long opposing wave begins and I can't ever be sure a long wave isn't beginning.    That's why I said, "the further price is away from the tunnel, the better".     That probably didn't make sense but I know what I mean.  lol     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 11:55:52 am
You are right about the break of the trend line, but not knowing for sure what to expect makes me distrust the trend line once broken.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 12:03:01 pm
Hahaha. I know what you mean. Those guys are pros at counting waves so I can't dispute their methods. When they start talking about waves, flats, expanded flats etc hell I just go tone deaf. If they say it's true then I go with it cause I don't have the experience in that to say otherwise. I just try to line up what they are saying with my methods. If there's confluence among traders then it's a good sign( or both of you are wrong ) Lol.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 27, 2017, 12:05:05 pm
Hey Qui. One thing thats frustrated many a trader is finding something that works consistently for them as an individual. Whether its a tunnel, a TDI wave count, an indicator of choice, etc, theres one key component you absolutely must have...a mastery of pure price action. The tools that Simple developed are pure genius but you have to remember that any tool is just that...its an assistant in price action evaluation, not a stand alone signal to take trades with. Without my understanding of price action, my TDI wave counting system would be useless. I use the wave counts only as confirmation tools, not as a stand alone signal. And I have multiple methods for confirming what I see even then. The only way to learn price action is to start with pure naked charts...candles only....and learn to figure out why price moves like it does. It takes tons of hours. I personally have clocked in well over 10,000 hours of face time with charts studying over the years, looking at things like mathematical progressions, form, patterns, etc. Without that knowledge, I wouldn't be able to trade the way I do. Price action is king...everything else is secondary.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 12:10:13 pm
Ok.    That's about all I have to say about price action.    Ok.   lolol     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 12:12:19 pm
Hahaha
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 12:17:14 pm
I used to have a ton of indicators on my chart cause they looked so cool. I was always changing them around. Had a new one every few days but I wasn't making money consistently. So I had to go back to the basics and strip that crap off my charts. I mostly use just MAs now and an indicator for divergence along with fibs. It was tough though.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 27, 2017, 12:22:41 pm
Rofl! If you don't learn it Qui, you'll always be frustrated. Think about it this way...a skilled carpenter can have the best tools in the world at his disposal. But none of those tools are any good without the carpenter's knowledge of how the whole house fits together. Theres a flow to the whole thing from start to finish and the carpenter applies each tool as needed along the way. Trust me...theres not a single tool out there that will give you good, consistent, accurate signals on when to take a trade. It just doesn't exist, any more than a single tool exists that will let you build a house from start to finish. Multiple tools are needed, combined with an understanding of how the whole thing fits together in the form of price action. Its like buying your kids books and all the supplies they need for school but when they get there all they want to do is eat the glue...lol! Forget the signals from tools or indicators...let go and use the Force my young padwan. 😄

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 01:15:43 pm
I'm where you are at Heavy with minimal indicators.    I threw up the quad tunnel when Simple posted a couple charts, but really the only thing I use is the TDI to look for divergence/hidden divergence and the 21MA which I use as a target point for positions that are entered when the 21MA has moved a good distance away from price on the daily chart.     For instance pennies E/N short seemed safe enough to start a small position on since price is a good 400 pips up from the 21MA and has hit a large trend line.    Not that price can't continue to move against me but I can add if necessary as it continues to move up and further away from the daily 21MA.     It always works for me, but never soon enough.     More risk in position size means less certainty and discomfort when stuck in a long elliot wave 3 or 5 or any wave when considering the weekly chart.     

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 01:22:32 pm
Ok pennies.........what is your definition of price action?     
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 27, 2017, 01:25:23 pm
Price action...nothing but pure candles on the chart. No indicators of any kind. Its called naked trading.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 01:42:51 pm
Oh good; simple candlestick charting which Steve Nison wrote a couple good books on.     I thought that by definition, price action was a visual display on a computer monitor of an orchestrated effort by the big banks to use predictable human psychology, and open/close gaps, plus alternating extreme opposing price zone targets along with the initial spread itself (their bread and butter) to keep everyone but them at a loss from the moment a trade is taken until the traders account is cleaned out and all moneys are pursed in the account of the broker.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 01:45:05 pm
The only thing I hate about trading forex more than the amount of time it takes to make inadequate gains with adequately low risk is how much fun it is.    I really hate that!    ::)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 02:08:00 pm
I see your point Quan but IMO you would think that the price always retraces back to the MAs and you can just fade that move but I've seen a lot of times where price just moves sideways until the MAs catch up to it then continue in the original direction thus no trade. That's 50/50 if you ask me.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 02:13:04 pm
Oh good; simple candlestick charting which Steve Nison wrote a couple good books on.     I thought that by definition, price action was a visual display on a computer monitor of an orchestrated effort by the big banks to use predictable human psychology, and open/close gaps, plus alternating extreme opposing price zone targets along with the initial spread itself (their bread and butter) to keep everyone but them at a loss from the moment a trade is taken until the traders account is cleaned out and all moneys are pursed in the account of the broker.   

So that's why I've been losing all the time...... :'(
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 02:19:18 pm
Yep Heavy.......you are absolutely right and thus part of my frustration when trading.    When that happens, well that's when I find myself stuck in a longer term loser trade until the next fresh price zone gets hit or there's enough consolidation or other indicators of a potential reversal for me to "add to my position".     And if price doesn't reverse there, then that's why I don't take heavy risk trades, because I have to double down or even triple down sometimes hundreds of pips away to get back to even and/or profit.    There is nothing I've found that can be depended on even 90%.    Thus pennies high odds method is a good one as he is looking for as many reversal indicators as are available.   

He's just much better at finding them than I am.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 27, 2017, 02:22:37 pm
Closed both EZ shorts for profits for now. Gonna wait till the smaller time frame TDI wave counts play out a bit more.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 02:31:29 pm
   Thus pennies high odds method is a good one as he is looking for as many reversal indicators as are available.   

He's just much better at finding them than I am.

Better than you and me both Quan
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 02:50:39 pm
Heavy......you should take a few minutes to draw lines across the TDI waves on any given time frame, then observe how by doing so you can find divergence between price tops or bottom trend lines and the TDI wave tops or bottom trend lines, which the indicator itself doesn't give alert to.     Also you'll notice that price will sometimes be turned sharply as a TDI wave hits a trend line drawn from a couple waves days or weeks earlier.    Any where that you can draw a line across two wave tops or bottoms, do so and extend the line out till it goes to the edge of the indicator window and then see how often after many waves finally a wave will meet that trend line and price will reverse there.      It's something that I discovered fairly recently after wondering if there was even more to drawing lines across TDI waves than pennies had posted in his charts.     It really is the only indicator worth putting on a chart outside of two or three moving averages.    It's the only indicator I've bought or will ever buy.   I would never have bought it if pennies hadn't pointed out a bit of how he applied it.

Oh, and sometimes it's the trend lines off the green indicator fast line wave tops or bottoms that meet and price reverses at, while other times its the red slow TDI line that presents the trend line/price reversals.    But just look for one line, not both together to meet where price reverses.

I'm maybe being presumptuous pointing that out, when you may already have noticed.   I wanted to point it out in event you weren't aware.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 03:18:24 pm
Yeah Quan. I only use a few MAs and the TDI for divergence now. I do notice the same patterns in the TDI just like the chart. Some times a pattern forms in the TDI that hasn't shown up in the chart and vice versa. The only problem with the TDI is like most indicators is it's lagging. By the time you get confirmation on the TDI, price can move significantly. It still beats not having it though IMO. I do draw trendlines on the TDI as well and used to draw fibs on them too but I haven't done that recently.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 03:33:08 pm
Gotcha.   

Unfortunately, I've also noticed that the TDI can be undependable in one mentionable way......when the TDI waves make an arc from 32 level to 68 level and back down to the 32 level and sometimes price forms an arc but other times price will continue in a constant move up even though the TDI waves all moved back down to the 32 level.   Still though, I am now watching for those potential price reversals based on the TDI waves meeting trend lines.   

Ok, off to get some things done.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 03:36:12 pm
Is this a possible short Op Quan? Price is at the 127.2 Ext of the last leg and the TDI is at the 161.8 Ext. You have negative divergence on the TDI and the RSI. So if you short back to the 200MA, that's about 55 pips. I'd keep positions small though with a tight stop if you use that particular trading style.

(https://charts.mql5.com/14/857/audnzd-h4-oanda-division1.png)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 03:38:34 pm
Gotcha.   

Unfortunately, I've also noticed that the TDI can be undependable in one mentionable way......when the TDI waves make an arc from 32 level to 68 level and back down to the 32 level and sometimes price forms an arc but other times price will continue in a constant move up even though the TDI waves all moved back down to the 32 level.   Still though, I am now watching for those potential price reversals based on the TDI waves meeting trend lines.   

Ok, off to get some things done.   

Exactly Quan, most are not dependable so I wouldn't load the boat that's for sure.... enjoy
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 03:42:33 pm
And keep in mind that all it takes is 1 pip +/- to move an indicator. So price can essentially move a small amount just to reset the indicators then price continues. That's my 2 cents worth. Enjoy your evening
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 27, 2017, 04:24:50 pm
Hi all been busy outside -here is something i have been looking at-in association with the TDI Green line -also the red and red cross--i wait for the ZZ to print

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 04:42:22 pm
Hey Jav, How's it going?
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 27, 2017, 05:01:24 pm
trying to build a new bed for aspargus--cutting grass-sister coming sat--brother and his wife bringing her to see her doggie that i'm taking care of her for her--did get to go fishing yesterday-not too much luck-but some for supper tonight-crappie-donna doesn't eat fish so i don't have to share-she caught 3 i caught 1 lol-and she's still rubbing in-well gotta get back to my grass
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 27, 2017, 05:38:19 pm
It doesn't matter that she caught more crappie jav.    What matters is that you get to eat however much you want of what she caught.     ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 27, 2017, 05:46:42 pm
That's what i told her yesterday-catch me more-i want some in the freezer--use to fish more-back then freezer always had fish in it--we gotta get more fishing done this year--you see the price of fish in a grocery store outrageous
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 27, 2017, 06:02:10 pm
CAD/JPY Daily Chart

I agree with Heavy's take on this pair. Its the same IHS price action pattern that caught my eye as well and the TDI wave count seems to confirm the IHS price action pattern. The only thing I'm waiting on is a confirmed breakout of the current downtrend channel along with the TDI breakout that has just not showed up.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 08:41:52 pm
CAD/JPY Daily Chart

I agree with Heavy's take on this pair. Its the same IHS price action pattern that caught my eye as well and the TDI wave count seems to confirm the IHS price action pattern. The only thing I'm waiting on is a confirmed breakout of the current downtrend channel along with the TDI breakout that has just not showed up.

Watching it closely pennies. Looks like there's still a gap to fill around 80.74 and 80.84. The closer it gets to that 61.8 fib I'll be looking to go long then add as needed.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 27, 2017, 09:06:00 pm
Leaving a limit order in to short ACAD at 1.0220 with TP set at 1.0014. Night gang...
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 27, 2017, 09:06:45 pm
Night Pennies and all
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 28, 2017, 04:27:36 am
Back in EZ short at 1.5920. TP still set for 1.53.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 28, 2017, 04:32:18 am
Canceling the Acad short order I had set, at least for now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 28, 2017, 04:46:36 am
Ya'll are gonna think I'm nuts but I'm now long NU at .6864. Looking for at least 200 pips north of here.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 07:01:32 am
Ya'll are gonna think I'm nuts but I'm now long NU at .6864. Looking for at least 200 pips north of here.

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Yeah you are nuts pennies. It is over extended compared to the last leg so that's a counter trend trade IMO. 200 pips? GL
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 28, 2017, 07:11:19 am
Daily TDI potential Wave 4 finish on NU...potentially anyway Heavy. But I've been wrong before...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 07:13:33 am
Daily TDI potential Wave 4 finish on NU...potentially anyway Heavy. But I've been wrong before...lol!

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We both have been wrong...a lot pennies. I'll be watching though
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 07:15:27 am
Hey, I've been promoted from jr. member to full member!!!!!! I have rank now ;)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 28, 2017, 07:17:35 am
Awesome! That means you get another zero added to your board member salary...just like mine...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 07:46:00 am
Awesome! That means you get another zero added to your board member salary...just like mine...lol!

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Hahaha yeah all zeros
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 07:51:01 am
Damn CAD/JPY. I knew I should've entered long
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 28, 2017, 08:16:08 am
Heavy, NJ is looking good for a rally north. TDI breakout and price action breakout of the 4 hour channel.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 28, 2017, 08:54:45 am
Morning all.     Nice way to start the day.....in the black.....or is it red.....it's down, that's what it is.     So many ways to look at a chart, and all I see is that it is out to get my money from me.    lol

Short E/Nzd again 1.5907.    I'm betting on it dropping from here but I'm fully expecting to see 1.664 at least before we see a reversal.     That's just my take on it.

Oh and hey lookey.......I'm a three star member at this five star inn too Heavy.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 09:58:04 am
Heavy, NJ is looking good for a rally north. TDI breakout and price action breakout of the 4 hour channel.

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Looking at NJ now pennies
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 10:01:47 am

Oh and hey lookey.......I'm a three star member at this five star inn too Heavy.   

We got rank now Quan. Let's see who we can boss around now Lol
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 10:07:08 am
Long NJ @ 76.52. Could run for some time. Bullish engulfing on the hourly is a give away.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 28, 2017, 10:19:13 am
Yeah Heavy.......if we ever get some newbies to show up here, we can boss 'em around and insult them and make them feel stupid  just like pennies does to us right?    ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 10:29:05 am
Yeah Heavy.......if we ever get some newbies to show up here, we can boss 'em around and insult them and make them feel stupid  just like pennies does to us right?    ;D

Hahaha Naw our inexperience makes us feel stupid....we just blame pennies for it.
But hey, the newbies won't know that shhhhh!!!!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 28, 2017, 10:33:36 am
Hey I never said I feel stupid.     I'm just premature and I can blame that on pennies.    It's like he's got some kind of power over me making me take those trades too early.    Must be the dark side in him.    And so the force awakens.   LOL
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 28, 2017, 10:34:53 am
I heard that Qui...lol! You guys are a mess...rofl!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 28, 2017, 10:38:59 am
Yes.......a mess we are.    hee hee hee
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 10:40:56 am
Hey I never said I feel stupid.     I'm just premature and I can blame that on pennies.    It's like he's got some kind of power over me making me take those trades too early.    Must be the dark side in him.    And so the force awakens.   LOL

Don't do it Quan. I know he's usually early. That's why I wait a bit after his entries. You'll see his trading style in time.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 28, 2017, 10:51:22 am
Heavy, when I get done helping out my brother in law at the store, I'll have plenty of time to sit with the charts. So I'm gonna throw you guys a curve ball by taking precision entries instead...lol!

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 28, 2017, 10:54:07 am
I knew you were holding out on us master.    We need to learn the true power of the dark side!   LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 11:05:17 am
Heavy, when I get done helping out my brother in law at the store, I'll have plenty of time to sit with the charts. So I'm gonna throw you guys a curve ball by taking precision entries instead...lol!

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We'll be looking forward to that pennies. I know entries will never be exact but I like to get as close as I can.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 28, 2017, 12:55:31 pm
Closed EZ short and NU long for about 60 pips net profit. I'm sure today's high on EZ will get retested so plenty of time to get back in later.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 01:06:45 pm
Closed EZ short and NU long for about 60 pips net profit. I'm sure today's high on EZ will get retested so plenty of time to get back in later.

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Good deal penniess...Great way to end the week
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 28, 2017, 02:25:12 pm
Oil Weekly Chart

Still nothing wrong with believing that oil is due for a massive spike soon that will take UCAD down hard. Indicator and price action seem to confirm a complex IHS pattern.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on April 28, 2017, 03:47:43 pm
Pennies looking forward to your charts-all have a good weekend
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 28, 2017, 04:34:24 pm
Looks like I'm holding my NJ long over the weekend. Oh well.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 28, 2017, 10:25:37 pm
Well that's another weekly 1% gain on both accounts combined.    At this rate it'll take me 12 years to make my million trading forex.    I think I just need to up my risk a little bit and that should be the ticket since I've had a consistent 1% average each week since beginning of March this year.    Lowest gains .5% one week and highest gains 3% one week.   

If you are lurking Kermit, hope you can post a week of good gains.   

Ok, I'll check in at some point over the weekend....good night....
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 29, 2017, 11:00:02 am
OK Quan. Off topic a bit but here is the chart of ticker ABBY that I caught when I bought in A .0029 with only about 53k shares for about $150 plus commission. As you see it peaked @ .018 but I was only about 2 days within the settlement period and couldn't sell it. I finally closed it @ .01 for about $530 minus commission. It has since dropped and may be ready to go again.

http://www.stockscores.com/quickreport.asp?ticker=abby&x=26&y=12

Here is the ticker that I'm currently in BLDV which is an MJ play. I also bought in @ .0029 with about 130k shares. It retraced and I added another 30k shares @ .002. Since then, it's popped to .0034 and closed @.0031. A gap up is expected on Monday with filings due.

http://www.stockscores.com/quickreport.asp?ticker=bldv&x=13&y=14

Little money played on these things with decent gains.


PS.... Sorry pennies we're going back to FX now.  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 29, 2017, 11:09:57 am
Lol! No worries Heavy. Knock yourself out.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 30, 2017, 08:34:14 am
Lol! No worries Heavy. Knock yourself out.

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Trying to get this tapatalk thing to work. Geez

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 30, 2017, 08:35:39 am
You'll like it once you get used to it. Its mostly what I use now.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 30, 2017, 08:37:40 am
You'll like it once you get used to it. Its mostly what I use now.

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Took me a minute to find the board but I think I'm good now. Just getting a feel for it

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 30, 2017, 08:45:33 am
The 2 main things I like about the mobile app is that it has an instant push notification that signals if a new message has been posted, plus it automatically goes to the latest post when you hit the notification alert on your phone. And of course, the obvious advantage...you can keep up with the forum when you're away from the computer...LOL!
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 30, 2017, 08:49:41 am
The 2 main things I like about the mobile app is that it has an instant push notification that signals if a new message has been posted, plus it automatically goes to the latest post when you hit the notification alert on your phone. And of course, the obvious advantage...you can keep up with the forum when you're away from the computer...LOL!
Yes absolutely. Lol. I See I get a notification from the app and email. Still trying to get the last post to show up first but I think I got it

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on April 30, 2017, 02:31:17 pm
Good afternoon Heavy.       I have no funds to trade right now, but you are prompting some real enthusiasm to fund my account enough to trade and see if I can't add to my long term success trading the occasional penny along with the forex.   

ABBY is a semi-similar trade to the one I made with ADOT some 15 years ago, as price declined heavily from $120 that you see on the max chart (after one or more huge reverse splits I'm sure) down to what looks like about $.075 per share that you can see on the 3 year chart, then with that bullish engulfing candle it bounced over the next couple weeks to $0.80 before sloughing off to near nothing again.   That's a near 1000% gain if you bought at that $.080 spot and sold at .80.     I wouldn't buy in at that price but it was good for a couple hundred percent approximate if you bought at $.22 or so on the minor pullback before it finished its ascent to $.80.     ADOT was a much better play but that was then and I had only been trading about a year before I came across that nice trade that wouldn't have played out as profitable if I had been babysitting it as I mentioned.   

And as I mentioned before, it might help us both if we are scanning twice as many charts together as one of us could by ourselves.    For me it's a simple matter of looking for a stock that has come from success to a death spiral wherein I would be watching for a reversal candle to try and catch a nice bounce.     That and the very odd resistance breakout like BLDY which can definitely explosive.   

I'm not ready for that right now but hope to be over the next three or so months.   
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 30, 2017, 03:16:49 pm

And as I mentioned before, it might help us both if we are scanning twice as many charts together as one of us could by ourselves.

Afternoon Quan, That was a massive gain on that ADOT trade. To expensive for me though. Like I said, I usually stick to the .00 area now once it's shown that it can get off the floor and hold levels because about 2 weeks ago I had 450k shares in a company that just dissolved itself. Imagine that. Luckily it was only about $100 cause it was sitting at .0002 but that money is up in smoke. I actually don't do a lot of scanning stocks. I still look at the Ihub boards and let those guys scan for me but when I see the same stock pop up on multiple boards then I dig into the share count. I came across ABBY and BLDV by accident while scanning the boards. If you look at the BLDV board( when you're not here of course lol) People have been chatting about that stock all weekend. I know I've cleared out over 200+ posts so far so the interest is there. I don't have a lot of money tied up in any platform including forex. Only a few hundred dollars each. Then add a few funds here and there as I lose but lately I don't add as much so I must be on the upswing. I feel it's throwing money away until I get a handle on my trading style. If I come across something special, I'll shoot you a PM for you to check out so we don't contaminate the forex thread.

45 minutes til we are back to trading...... GL
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 30, 2017, 03:35:37 pm
Hi everyone! Sorry I've been way for a bit and need to catch up on the posts. And boy was there stuff to talk about! I took it on the chin in GU a couple weeks agoóI couldnít believe Mayís calling an election would cause GBP to spike. It increases uncertainty, which should have caused a drop. But it didnít and I was heavy short while it was going bigly long.

I lost 8% while doing everything wrongóI went in too heavy, got emotional and let my insistence that the pound was going down blind me to clear signals in the charts that it could go the other way, and when it did go the other way, I rode the loss rather than bailing and reassessing. Last week I had to travel for work and was away for the computer much of the time and my good charts all the time, so I did what I should have done a month ago and sat out a week to get my head screwed on straight again.

So here we go!

Week 18 Post

Start: $173.78
Goal: $180.66

This week Iím not too excited about anything I see on the pairs I like to play. One thing that catches my eye is the big gap in the EUR:GBP and the general weakness of the euro against the strength of the pound. Iím going to go short, but will keep a careful eye on it for this reason:

Upcoming elections in France. Conventional wisdom says a Macron win would strengthen the euro and a Le Pen win would weaken it. Le Pen does not have much chance of winning, but she is likely to close the gap this week as that is usually what happens as the election approaches. THat's pretty normal, but if Macron drops more than a couple points below 60, some people will get nervous.

So thatís my betóweak Euro this week as French elections approach and people get nervous about, "could Le Pen really pull it off? Is she closing the gap?", then a spike up next weekend after Macron wins.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 30, 2017, 04:03:34 pm
Welcome back Kermit. I'm no expert on world affairs so I'll leave that to the other guys but GL on reaching your goal this week
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 30, 2017, 04:17:06 pm
CAD/JPY Weekly Chart

Ok gang, I'm going to work on focusing strictly on TDI Wave 4 completions on the charts from now on, both long term and short term. That should give us more precise entries overall.

The first one here shows we need a bit more pullback before the ideal entry is reached. Under ideal circumstances, the 71.6 fib retrace on price is needed after a TDI Wave 3 appears. The 71.6 fib retrace is the most common target I've found on average after analyzing literally thousands of charts over a period of time when I was developing the TDI wave counting system. Sometimes it reaches it and sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes it overshoots the 71.6 level a bit before reversing. Regardless, it is the ideal target to look for entries.

So I'm looking at going long on CAD/JPY at 78.81 and looking to TP at 87.38. The final TP target will vary depending on exactly where the retrace bottoms.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 30, 2017, 04:24:07 pm
EUR/NZD Monthly Chart

I'm not gonna waste time trying to short this pair anymore. The longer term wave count is definitely bullish based on a number of factors. I will however, wait for the gap to retrace before trying to go long again.

TP target is 1.7656 once I find a long entry again after the gap fill.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 30, 2017, 04:37:18 pm
ACAD Daily and 4 Hour Charts

Both charts show potential TDI Wave 4 completions in this general area. I'm just waiting on the spreads to settle back down after the open and I plan on shorting ACAD at 1.0220 or above for a TP target of 1.002.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 30, 2017, 04:43:42 pm
EUR/NZD Monthly Chart

I'm not gonna waste time trying to short this pair anymore. The longer term wave count is definitely bullish based on a number of factors. I will however, wait for the gap to retrace before trying to go long again.

TP target is 1.7656 once I find a long entry again after the gap fill.


Not so sure about that pennies....should be about ready to short soon but we'll see. You're right, probably best to wait on the gap fill.

(https://charts.mql5.com/14/880/eurnzd-h4-oanda-division1.png)
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 30, 2017, 04:47:13 pm
I think its possible we see 1.60 first before it finally rolls over on EZ but the longer term monthly chart is definitely bullish. 2 bull candles in a row on the monthly chart and the 2nd one has moved past the high on the first one. Once we get a good retrace in place, it should get ready to take off north again. I'll be watching the 4 hour and daily charts to find a suitable long entry again later on but for now I'm not interested in shorting it anymore with the long term setup on a bullish slant. I've made that mistake before and gotten caught with my pants down, even in spite of gaps on the chart.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 30, 2017, 04:52:29 pm
I think its possible we see 1.60 first before it finally rolls over on EZ but the longer term monthly chart is definitely bullish. 2 bull candles in a row on the monthly chart and the 2nd one has moved past the high on the first one. Once we get a good retrace in place, it should get ready to take off north again. I'll be watching the 4 hour and daily charts to find a suitable long entry again later on but for now I'm not interested in shorting it anymore with the long term setup on a bullish slant. I've made that mistake before and gotten caught with my pants down, even in spite of gaps on the chart.

Yeah I remember that AU trade that you didn't wanna let go even after about 200-300 pips....negative. Lol ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 30, 2017, 04:56:35 pm
GU Monthly and Daily Charts

Monthly has finished up a full 5 wave count to the downside. Its currently working on its 1st wave back in a counter trend move back up. However, with TDI wave counting, a final bottom can't be in place until at least a Wave 2 on the TDI count. Since this is TDI wave 1 up, I would still bet on a new final price low with a TDI wave 2 before we can say its really bottomed out.

Daily chart shows that the TDI is wrapping up a 5th wave push in this area but I wouldn't short it until a TDI wave 4 back down is completed.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 30, 2017, 05:05:13 pm
Spreads have settled back down a bit now on ACAD and the minor gap filled so I shorted it a bit early at 1.02151. TP set for 1.002.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 30, 2017, 05:12:19 pm
I set a EURGBP short at 0.844 based on where I think the 1 HR tunnel will be when the price gets there. Should fill fairly quickly.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 30, 2017, 05:13:10 pm
Welcome back Kermit. We missed you buddy.  ;D
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 30, 2017, 07:34:27 pm
Shorting CAD/JPY here @ 81.59
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: kermit42 on April 30, 2017, 08:27:53 pm
Thanks pennies. It's always nice when people notice you're not around. On the french election, it's always tricky business to trade news, but I think the daily chart says it's going down this week. What little I know of polling suggests the French election will be a drag on the euro this week, confirming the chart read. But I won't hold over the weekend because the actual election will be a major event. It seems very likely Macron will win and that should goose the euro, but I probably will take a wait and see approach because anything can happen.


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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on April 30, 2017, 08:30:22 pm
It'll be interesting for sure Kermit. The populist movement is in full swing and with the US upset election and Brexit in the rear view mirror, I wouldn't be surprised to see Le Pen pull a rabbit out of the hat.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on April 30, 2017, 08:47:59 pm
Stop loss hit on CAD/JPY position closed
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on May 01, 2017, 03:48:57 am
Acad FE100 and double top at 1.0265. Lets see if it turns here.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on May 01, 2017, 05:16:02 am
Motivation

From time to time, its always a good idea to re-evaluate and get real about what we want and where we're at in life.  I want to share with you today what motivates me to do what I do. To understand that, I want to list some things that I believe most if not all of us have in common that drive us to do what we do here and why we choose to trade Forex, stocks, etc.

1. Working hard for my money at a dead-end job for barely enough to get by instead of making my money work for me.
2. Having to settle for a bologna sandwich instead of the steak dinner I really want.
3. Having to keep an old vehicle patched together with spit and duct tape to keep it running instead of being able to buy a good vehicle, new or otherwise.
4. Not taking vacations because I can't afford them.
5. Having to avoid name brand products and buying cheap, generic brand knock offs that aren't worth a crap because I can't afford the good stuff.
6. Having to hold my breath at the cash register in the grocery store, hoping the total doesn't go above the amount I have to spend for food in general.
7. Being able to relax knowing that I have enough money to be able to enjoy life without stressing over whether I'm going to be like most people and have too much month left at the end of my money instead of plenty of money left at the end of the month.

And the list can go on and on but you get the general idea. I don't know about you guys but every time I look at this list, it pisses me off. It pisses me off to the point where I get boiling mad. I get mad and I decide that I will NOT be relegated to the 98% of folks that have to get by instead of the 2% that can live the life they choose instead of the life they've gotten locked into that ultimately results in just barely getting by.

We can debate philosophy all day long about how "money can't buy you happiness" and that being "poor" makes you humble and appreciative. In my opinion, that's total bullshit and the word "poor" is a 4 letter word that ought to be right up there with the rest of the curse word list. I don't see any "poor" people that are really happy...do you?

Now I'm not trying to become the next Rockefeller or Buffet but one thing is for sure...I'll be damned if I have to scrape by when there's 5 trillion dollars a day flowing through the Forex market and all I have to do is learn how to get my piece of the pie.

It's hard guys...there's nothing easy about what we do. That's why, on average, 95% of retail traders fail to make money overall. I decided long ago to not become a statistic of that system. So I study and I learn. When I take a loss, I figure out why I took the loss. When I win, I figure out why I won and how to keep that going. I still put in tons of face time with the charts and I study and I learn every day of every week of every month of every year. This is a situation where we have to stay sharp in order to win.

I would wager that most if not all of us feel pretty much the same way. We're here to make money and make our lives better. Whatever our lot in life, it can be better. Don't give in and don't give up. Its not supposed to be easy gang. Unless you're lucky enough to inherit a bunch of money, you have to work hard to get it and keep it.

If we didn't want the money, we wouldn't be here in the first place. So ask yourself...what motivates you? Are you where you want to be? Figure it out and make it happen.

Its not about greed...this is our time and our life and by god, I want to be the best I can be and live it without the worry and stress that's been handed to the bulk of the crowd in this world.

How about you? Feel free to sound off. Make your own list...and I hope that list pisses you off like mine does to me...and I hope that motivates you every day to do what needs to be done.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: ForexTrader on May 01, 2017, 05:27:31 am
Hi everyone! Sorry I've been way for a bit and need to catch up on the posts. And boy was there stuff to talk about! I took it on the chin in GU a couple weeks agoóI couldnít believe Mayís calling an election would cause GBP to spike. It increases uncertainty, which should have caused a drop. But it didnít and I was heavy short while it was going bigly long.

I lost 8% while doing everything wrongóI went in too heavy, got emotional and let my insistence that the pound was going down blind me to clear signals in the charts that it could go the other way, and when it did go the other way, I rode the loss rather than bailing and reassessing. Last week I had to travel for work and was away for the computer much of the time and my good charts all the time, so I did what I should have done a month ago and sat out a week to get my head screwed on straight again.

So here we go!

Week 18 Post

Start: $173.78
Goal: $180.66

This week Iím not too excited about anything I see on the pairs I like to play. One thing that catches my eye is the big gap in the EUR:GBP and the general weakness of the euro against the strength of the pound. Iím going to go short, but will keep a careful eye on it for this reason:

Upcoming elections in France. Conventional wisdom says a Macron win would strengthen the euro and a Le Pen win would weaken it. Le Pen does not have much chance of winning, but she is likely to close the gap this week as that is usually what happens as the election approaches. THat's pretty normal, but if Macron drops more than a couple points below 60, some people will get nervous.

So thatís my betóweak Euro this week as French elections approach and people get nervous about, "could Le Pen really pull it off? Is she closing the gap?", then a spike up next weekend after Macron wins.

Here's explanation why May calling an election was positive: This was a smart move by May to get a stronger mandate when the opposition is down in the dumps. A stronger mandate would also help her to push through her agenda quicker and would greatly help her position when she sits for negotiations for the Brexit process. And by doing this after the invocation of Article 50, she has basically removed the question over Brexit, out of the equation.  So it has actually had the effect of reducing uncertainty (or at least potentially reducing uncertainty).
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on May 01, 2017, 06:29:24 am
Motivation

From time to time, its always a good idea to re-evaluate and get real about what we want and where we're at in life.  I want to share with you today what motivates me to do what I do. To understand that, I want to list some things that I believe most if not all of us have in common that drive us to do what we do here and why we choose to trade Forex, stocks, etc.

That's a moving list pennies. You must have been looking in my bank account. Lol. Seriously though. Those are some of the same reason's why I do what I do. I stick with it because I know the potential to be gained with the trillion dollar a day market in forex. I diversify between forex, options, pennystocks etc in hopes that one them pays off. I know it's probably better to learn one thing and learn it well and that's probably why my learning curve is so long but I like this trading thing regardless of the area. Financial security is what we all look for I think and to be able to make more money sitting in front of a computer than you can in the work force is amazing but it does take time and studying or you end up just as broke as you were to start with. Patience and emotions have always been my main issue not trading. Like that NJ long that I closed last week, well today it's up 55 pips. Money on the table there so I am my worst enemy. I'm not afraid to admit if I don't know something and I'm certainly not always right but I'm better than I was years ago. I've done those things that you wrote in your list and I'm determined not to get in that position again. Thanks for the motivation and the directional calibration. Good luck to you and all here.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on May 01, 2017, 06:42:50 am
Amen to that Heavy. Couldn't have put it better myself.

Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on May 01, 2017, 09:32:50 am
Morning guys.

Kermit......glad to see you back and blowing off your hit.    Personally I don't trust myself to interpret the chart accurately enough to expect my gains to be so much better than my losses that I can take losses, so that's why I always add to my losers until I can get back to even and usually profit before finally closing out the loser (turned even or profitable)    No stop losses for me.    Not unless or until I can prove to myself that I will always have far greater winning initial entry trades than losers.   

I'm also not aware enough, insightful enough, or therefore comfortable enough to trust my opinions or anyone elses biased proclaimed opinion on world affairs and how they will definitely play out in the forex markets.     Like Heavy, I leave that to the guys out there that are truly in the know.   

I look for extended price movements to end and reverse only and if I'm wrong then I just wait impatiently sometimes and then add to my loser position.   It has always worked out for me so it truly is a high odds plan.     Though I'd love consistent high gains, I just need consistent gains, not good ones with the odd huge loss to keep me in my comfort zone.    I don't have the stomach to close out losing trades anymore.   Too demoralizing and it keeps me at a disadvantage emotionally.

Pennies.........I think your TDI wave 4 focus on all the different pairs is going to prove to be the true ATM result approach.    I'm really glad to see it!   

Heavy......when I fund my account I'll let you know and I'll welcome your P messages.    As a pretty new stock trader I didn't realize it, but ADOT really was a rare one for the degree of bounce.    There have been others, but that was my only one.     Just before CMKX was being pumped, there was a gay media company which I didn't trade, but I watched it trade from .0001 to .01 (a full penny a share) on far less volume then CMKX so I felt very good about my CMKX odds when I came across it, but after CMKX popped to .001 and then died, never to see even .001 again, I then trusted nothing but volume and the pump, but not the .01 from .0001 odds any longer and with little trust even in that.    And so it has probably always been from the beginning of the trading of the penny stocks.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on May 01, 2017, 09:55:47 am
Short A/Cad here at 1.0294 in hopes of a pullback to the MA21 on the 4 hour chart.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on May 01, 2017, 10:32:43 am
Still looks like Ucad is setting up to roll over soon. Still expecting oil to spike as Ucad and the other Cad pairs fall.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on May 01, 2017, 01:21:03 pm
I thought seriously about getting back into the penny stocks lately-looked around at some boards-same old thing still going on pump and dump-reverse splits-companies making false claims -Pennies were good to me -then they weren't really got shafted on my last company-he and others went to jail and me and others were left with nothing--so i guess i'll let the Forex charts speak for themselves--Price action says it all--now once again quit looking back--Forex is my future-by the way did i mention the stock i was talking about-think it was ckys-or something like that was halted on my birthday-very costly and sad birthday for me-i lost alot but others lost way more than me--that was my last delving into the Penny World--yes the pennies made me money-withdrew money many times-was able to pay cash for different items--all in all i made more than i lost--i just gotta tighten my Forex Belt and start concentrating on it exclusively--I know there is money to be made here--i have done my due diligence 
blew my account twice--made every mistake imaginable --but in the process i have been learning from them--so saying that- I say today May 1 2017 I start trading with better knowledge and A PURPOSE-- Green Pips --Pennies liked your post-yes we are all here for the same reason-number one we love to trade and number 2 we'd like to get some nuggets out of this Forex PIP MINE
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on May 01, 2017, 01:32:50 pm
I'm with you there Jav. Can't win them all and same for forex. That's why I hate leaving money on the table. I take my profits and screw the rest. Sometimes I miss out but profit is profit. That's how I look at it. Pennystocks just gives me another revenue stream. Right now the bread and butter is forex. I stare at those charts more than anything.

BTW...Remember the ticker I pointed out last week? BLDV? Check that chart out......

http://www.stockscores.com/quickreport.asp?ticker=bldv&x=13&y=10

I'm up 50%...and counting
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on May 01, 2017, 01:40:42 pm
Goodluck on it-yep pennies were fun--as i said WAMA was my ATM machine-don't think it trades anymore at least not under that sticker
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Heavyweight on May 01, 2017, 01:42:39 pm
Goodluck on it-yep pennies were fun--as i said WAMA was my ATM machine-don't think it trades anymore at least not under that sticker

I couldn't find it Jav so I'm not sure.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on May 01, 2017, 02:41:42 pm
Wama was a low float--when it would hit .03 i'd get on board and ride it to .08--wish it still was around
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on May 01, 2017, 04:08:48 pm
ACAD Daily Chart

It's make or break time here gang. If the trend line holds and if this is really a TDI Wave 4 completion level, the sell off will be intense. If not, it will break the top trend line and head towards 1.05 or so.

All we can do is follow the technicals. It either is or isn't.

If its accurate, then the TP level will be much lower. I'm aiming for 0.97 as a primary target for now.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on May 01, 2017, 04:31:37 pm
ACAD Monthly Line Chart

And here's the REALLY big picture on this pair. Could still tap the top trend line again but it's long term oober bearish all the way back down to the bottom trendline in the contracting triangle. Notice that so far the entire pattern is made up of 3 wave movements. That's typical in EW theory inside a triangle. 5 total movements made up of 3 waves each.
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on May 01, 2017, 04:43:02 pm
UCAD Daily Chart with EW Count

Possible elliott wave correction count.

If this is accurate, UCAD will roll over hard to the downside.

Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: javalin on May 01, 2017, 05:48:06 pm
Pennies you sure have put some time on those charts -going to transfer the info to my chart and watch it-tks so much
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: Pennies2007 on May 02, 2017, 07:52:41 am
Ucad is in danger of tipping over hard here after hitting 1.37. Watch it close.

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Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on May 02, 2017, 08:28:27 am
I don't know pennies, with that long daily candle on UCAD today, but I just went short here because I think you are right on with your overall bearish take on the daily chart.    I fully expect to have to add to it at the weekly FE 100 or FE 127 or possibly even the FE 161 where price will hit above into the weekly price action zone.    Maybe I'll be surprised for once though and actually see the reversal before needing to add; that would sure be nice for a change. 
Title: Re: TA Forex Trading
Post by: quanticopious15 on May 02, 2017, 08:38:47 am
Hey jav......I remember back before getting all wrapped up emotionally in CMKX when I read of a company that had screwed over it's shareholders and they had lost millions on backing it.    I remember how hard it hit me emotionally thinking about how it must have been for them to have not only lost their investment but to have to follow the SEC case and shareholder suit against the company for month after month.     Then it happened to me with CMKX.    For my own mental health though I didn't follow it all too closely after the first month that I knew the company was a scam.     I knew I would never see my "investment" again so I just went on to do other things, but it really destroyed my enthusiasm momentum to trade and I've never recouped it.    Not to the same degree.    No more 2 am research, thats for sure.     

I like forex in a way because it doesn't take long to lay out price action zones and trendiness and check on the daily candles.     What I hate about forex is the length of typical time it takes to see the profit I need without risking crashing my account.    I hate that.    I had to wait with stocks too though, but once the stock popped I made huge gains, unlike forex with the ever small gains.