TA Forex Trading

Lol! I gotcha Kermit.

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Heavy that's how i like to trade too-get those green pips and leave one running to try for more-since thanks to Pennies i'm looking at the longterm charts and understanding better what direction i should be trading-YEP once a scalper always got that in your blood no getting away from it lol-but learning more patience too-that's what the other portion of the trade is for-as long as the longer term charts are still agreeing

Yes Forex Trader, that is quite often the case with retail positioning. Some of them are about 50/50 on the split and others are very heavy in the long range on pairs that are dropping or heavy in the short range on pairs that are rallying.

I remember Simplegreen said he would often check his broker's open positions from the retail crowd and just plan on pretty much going the opposite way they were stacked up...LOL!

Just wanted to post this interesting article right quick. I may very well turn out to be wrong so I don't mind getting egg on my face. But I can see oil setting up for a massive move upside. Yet the whole market seems to have shifted to a bearish bias all of a sudden.

Interesting...we'll see how it works out. After all, I have been wrong before. But I wouldn't buy a ticket on the short train.   

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-10/oil-traders-are-having-some-fun-again-as-price-bubble-bursts

UCAD Daily Chart

We tagged the 88.6 fib retrace. Now all we need is the catalyst to complete the pattern.

Minimum downside target is 1.2220 so I'b be looking for 1.2250 on a TP here on shorts.

Week 10 Wrap up:

Start: $126.82
Goal: $131.47
Attained: $143.60

Qui asked me last week about the size of the positions I take. Roughly, I take positions such that I need 100 pips to hit my weekly goal of 5%. So if my goal is $5.00 ($100 in the account), then I need $0.05 per pip.  If I get more than that, I beat my goal. Ideally, I’d only look at the pips and pay no attention to the money, but it’s hard to track pips, easy to track money. This approach risks more than is generally recommended, but I’m a swing trader (I like to hold positions for less than a week) and can’t afford to drop hundreds of pips if I’m going to be out in a day or two. If a trade goes bad, I need to bail long before then. Anyway, it’s been working for me.

That’s all by way of saying I had another good week. I gained $16.78, about 13%. Mostly on the EURNZD run (thanks Pennies!) with a couple timely flips. Also a bit on EURUSD and AUDCAD. I thought I was going to have to take a fairly large write down on the dollar shorts, but it tanked at the end so  only USDCAD ended the week in the red.

What I did poorly: I rushed into positions Sunday night because once I make up my mind, I hate waiting (impatience). Initially EURNZD and AUDCAD went against me and I flipped to go the other way, then they turned around…you know the drill. Chasing instead of waiting. I was impulsively jumping into a buzzsaw that could eat up my account right quick.

What I did well: I caught myself, stopped blindly chasing pips and got back on the original plan.

Another thing I did well—I’m in the EST and wake up around 5 AM, Europe comes online 4 AM EST and often spikes out of the gate. Usually it retraces over the next couple hours to get back to wherever it was and I’m getting better at playing it. I check Oanda first thing in the morning and if it spiked in my direction, I close the position and wait for it to come back before reentering. If it spiked against me, I just wait. That move alone got me a lot of pips this week.

Thanks Pennies. Learning how to pick winners and losers was easy. Learning how to play the winners and lay off the losers has taken years. All of us have lost money on pairs that did exactly what we expected them to. I wouldn't be surprised if most of my losses came on pairs that did exactly what I expected them to.

This run I'm on now is the longest sustained streak I've ever had. The key so far has been sticking to a plan and not letting success breed carelessness. Every week I have to renew that discipline--Just because I did it yesterday doesn't mean I'll do it tomorrow.


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