Author Topic: TA Forex Trading (Read 16250 times)

Pennies2007 · « **Reply #870 on:** March 03, 2017, 05:25:53 pm »

Hey Kermit. I'll have to wait till I get home late tonight to post the chart but you have to zoom back out even further on the daily chart to see the bigger picture. The weekly is actually more clear. Basically what we have is a large sideways weekly channel comprised of a series of 3 wave corrections. The channel you have drawn in only shows the last of 3 waves back to the top. Its actually set up for another large 3rd leg down that will complete Wave D in the series. When you see sets of 3 waves in a sideways consolidation channel, triangle or a diagonal, those sets of 3 form a total of 5 sets or 15 total waves. This last high only comes in at number 11 in the series. One more down in the sideways channel will give us 12 follwed by a potential 3 more back up for a total of 15. Look at the weekly chart and go in with a set of horizontal trendlines and you'll be able to see it more easily.

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Pennies2007 · « **Reply #871 on:** March 03, 2017, 10:31:45 pm »

Quote from: kermit42 on March 03, 2017, 04:44:25 pm

HI Pennies. I'm looking for my next play and I mostly see pullbacks as the next move for most of the pairs I watch, and I don't want to go again the trend, so I took a look at AC and have a question. Attached are two charts--hourly and daily.

Hourly chart: TDI is just turning down and the fibonacci suggests the next move is down. OK, fits with what you're saying.
Daily chart: The green and red lines on the TDI are breaking the plane of the yellow line. Last 2 times that happened, it dropped about 600 pips. Again, fits with what you're saying.

BUT...I had to pull way out on the daily for this. Not that I know what I'm talking about, but shouldn't ACAD hit the top of this channel one more time at around 1.05 before dropping?

Here you go Kermit. Finally made it home. This is the chart I posted the other day with the same annotations. ACAD Weekly Chart showing the 1-2-3 corrective series. The only thing I can't totally rule out is a final push up to the current 88.6 fib level around 1.0315 but even that looks kind of unlikely at this point. There are multiple fib completions at the last high on ACAD, even from a time based fibonacci perspective.

Pennies2007 · « **Reply #872 on:** March 03, 2017, 10:38:14 pm »

And here's the ACAD hourly with the larger ABC correction overall in this total leg up. It's only 3 waves as well, which is definitely only a corrective move before a much larger sell off coming. Notice the 5th wave overthrow and rapid, hard reversal back into the channel.

The next move down will break the channel hard to the downside and drop like a rock.

Note: Ignore the numbers on the TDI...those are from a larger time frame. I just zoomed in on the hourly to show you the Elliott Wave count and channel action.

Pennies2007 · « **Reply #873 on:** March 03, 2017, 10:40:48 pm »

And finally here's the daily ACAD chart with the TP targets readjusted slightly for the last new high.

Pennies2007 · « **Reply #874 on:** March 03, 2017, 10:46:56 pm »

EUR/NZD Weekly Chart Recap

So far, it's a no-go on the EUR/NZD long position. The price broke out of the wedge but the TDI has yet to do so. That means we wait. Maybe we get another bull candle that will finally push the TDI up but we could get a retrace first before that happens. Sometimes though, these long time frames don't update the TDI until the Sunday open...basically, we need one tick to complete on the new weekly candle before the TDI updates so it's possible the Sunday open will confirm a long position as soon as the chart ticks start showing up.

But we have to have both so until we do, I'm not re-entering long. The TDI setup will quite often save you from entering bad trades due to head fakes and I've learned to respect it.

Pennies2007 · « **Reply #875 on:** March 03, 2017, 10:48:53 pm »

UJ Daily Chart

No change in my earlier prediction. The hidden bearish divergence shows that UJ is about to plunge hard. Annotations are untouched from last time.

Pennies2007 · « **Reply #876 on:** March 03, 2017, 10:53:21 pm »

UCAD Daily Chart

Still looks good for a nice drop. TP target readjusted slightly for slight new high. I'll be out around 1.3050 but I strongly suspect we see a move down to the FE 100 just below 1.28.

Pennies2007 · « **Reply #877 on:** March 03, 2017, 10:59:15 pm »

AUD/NZD 4 Hour Chart

If anyone is wondering why I said I bailed out on AUD/NZD earlier today, this is why. I saw this pattern setting up and my Elliott Wave studies taught me long ago that expanding diagonals are quite often 5th wave finishing patterns.

So this one may, near term, make a great short opportunity. Notice the slight break above the potential neckline that I mentioned (white line). I suspect that we'll see a pretty deep retrace before it makes another attempt at a breakout. With AU in such a bearish position on the weekly and daily charts, this really isn't surprising.

kermit42 · « **Reply #878 on:** March 04, 2017, 05:19:22 am »

Thanks, Pennies. This is great stuff, I love having so many ways to check my own work.

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quanticopious15 · « **Reply #879 on:** March 04, 2017, 08:35:56 am »

Pennies.......considering you base all your trades on the wave counts of multi-timeframes of all these pairs but can only do so based on the historical feed from our MT4/5 platforms, I'm really curious as to how much the greater historical chart would effect your wave counting if it were to be available in MT4/5. I came across historical charts on all pairs and the Aud/Cad pair chart dated back to jan 1st 1960. In 1974 Acad had a high in the 1.50 range. It shows either annual candles or a lines on annual timeframe chart. There's a little box for monthly but it doesn't work for me. Maybe all the pairs that have ever traded are to be found in their drop down menu list. The site is "fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates". Since we're basing future price action on historical price action then it seems to me that all the data would count. Curious what your thoughts would be.

Pennies2007 · « **Reply #880 on:** March 04, 2017, 08:36:09 am »

No problem Kermit. I too like having multiple inputs on pairs. It really helps me to have as many pairs of eyes on the charts as possible. I can't tell you how many times I've looked at a chart and gotten input from someone else and realized that it either confirmed what I was thinking or took me in a totally different direction because I missed something.

I love having an active group of folks here who like sharing for the good of the whole.

Pennies2007 · « **Reply #881 on:** March 04, 2017, 08:40:53 am »

Quote from: quanticopious15 on March 04, 2017, 08:35:56 am

Pennies.......considering you base all your trades on the wave counts of multi-timeframes of all these pairs but can only do so based on the historical feed from our MT4/5 platforms, I'm really curious as to how much the greater historical chart would effect your wave counting if it were to be available in MT4/5. I came across historical charts on all pairs and the Aud/Cad pair chart dated back to jan 1st 1960. In 1974 Acad had a high in the 1.50 range. It shows either annual candles or a lines on annual timeframe chart. There's a little box for monthly but it doesn't work for me. Maybe all the pairs that have ever traded are to be found in their drop down menu list. The site is "fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates". Since we're basing future price action on historical price action then it seems to me that all the data would count. Curious what your thoughts would be.

Absolutely Qui. The more data you have, the better of you are. I always start with the highest possible time when I first begin to analyze a pair and the more data I have to analyze, the easier it is to figure out. The web site you mentioned is good...now if only I could get the data into MT4, it would be golden...LOL!

quanticopious15 · « **Reply #882 on:** March 04, 2017, 08:44:11 am »

Those were my thoughts. Seems you could still do a wave count on the yearly candles available on their charts but I can't see any way to apply any RSI or TDI to the charts without having a software tool to do it. Does any other charting platform offering that deep historical charting on forex with an interactive RSI tool?

Pennies2007 · « **Reply #883 on:** March 04, 2017, 08:46:22 am »

Actually, I did a bit of research while we were talking here and I already have the solution Qui. Here's the link with the instructional video on how to download more historical data into MT4 so we can use our current tools.

The internet is awesome...LOL!

https://www.tradingheroes.com/download-mt4-historical-data/

quanticopious15 · « **Reply #884 on:** March 04, 2017, 08:47:43 am »

You can also print the chart and using a ruler draw in some rough fib level lines and price action trend lines and mark a wave count but not much else unless one of the charting platforms for stocks that offer forex charts and go way back would. I'll bet it's available and being used out there but not to the average trader; only the software developers themselves.

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