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Author Topic: TA Forex Trading  (Read 16136 times)

ForexTrader

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #780 on: February 27, 2017, 10:16:20 pm »
anyone else see inverted head and shoulders breakout on aud/cad daily chart? brought it up a couple days ago

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #781 on: February 27, 2017, 10:26:10 pm »
Hey ForexTrader. I remember you mentioned that. I see the pattern you referenced but I'm not sure it applies here. But I definitely can't rule it out either. I've learned over the years that standard IHS and H&S shoulders patterns as they are laid out in the tech analysis manuals are only right about half the time.

So what I did was I researched the ones that played out and matched them to specific TDI patterns. So what I normally look for in an IHS pattern is a series of 3 higher lows near the bottom that are congruent with each of the pattern manifestations in the IHS or H&S.

In the case of an IHS, the left shoulder makes the lowest peak on the TDI. The head makes a slightly higher TDI low and then finally the right shoulder makes an even higher low. For H&S patterns, just reverse that...left shoulder makes the highest peak, the head makes a lower peak and the right shoulder makes a 3rd lower peak.

AUD/NZD is a perfect example of one that's playing out right now actually. Here's the chart I've had for quite some time along with the TDI pattern to go along with it that I've found confirms the pattern with a pretty high accuracy rating.

When I look at the ACAD chart, the TDI setup isn't the same. It's similar but the layout doesn't look correct. I do see more potential upside for ACAD later but for now, it's probably going to be trapped inside a contracting triangle pattern.

Here's the AUD/NZD chart I mentioned with the IHS price action pattern and the TDI confirmation pattern to go with it...I use this quite often to help confirm Wave 4 TDI patterns...

EDIT: I forgot to mention that one of the key components on those TDI peaks for either IHS or H&S is that they can be tied together with a single trend line and that the peaks are fairly close together. If the peaks are spread far apart or you have trouble connecting all 3 points with a single trend line, then it probably isn't an IHS or H&S pattern.

« Last Edit: February 27, 2017, 10:29:02 pm by Pennies2007 »

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #782 on: February 27, 2017, 10:29:43 pm »
Ok gang, I've been awake for nearly 24 hours now and I'm wiped out. I'll be back early in the morning and we'll see how things progress. Everybody have a good one!   ;D

quanticopious15

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #783 on: February 27, 2017, 10:30:37 pm »
Interesting......I too was struggling with that semi IHS pattern as I believed it to be one until three days ago with that low hanging candle that made the IHS tougher to verify.   

quanticopious15

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #784 on: February 27, 2017, 10:31:45 pm »
I'm done too pennies.    Nite all.....

ForexTrader

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #785 on: February 28, 2017, 05:22:59 am »
Hey ForexTrader. I remember you mentioned that. I see the pattern you referenced but I'm not sure it applies here. But I definitely can't rule it out either. I've learned over the years that standard IHS and H&S shoulders patterns as they are laid out in the tech analysis manuals are only right about half the time.

So what I did was I researched the ones that played out and matched them to specific TDI patterns. So what I normally look for in an IHS pattern is a series of 3 higher lows near the bottom that are congruent with each of the pattern manifestations in the IHS or H&S.

In the case of an IHS, the left shoulder makes the lowest peak on the TDI. The head makes a slightly higher TDI low and then finally the right shoulder makes an even higher low. For H&S patterns, just reverse that...left shoulder makes the highest peak, the head makes a lower peak and the right shoulder makes a 3rd lower peak.

AUD/NZD is a perfect example of one that's playing out right now actually. Here's the chart I've had for quite some time along with the TDI pattern to go along with it that I've found confirms the pattern with a pretty high accuracy rating.

When I look at the ACAD chart, the TDI setup isn't the same. It's similar but the layout doesn't look correct. I do see more potential upside for ACAD later but for now, it's probably going to be trapped inside a contracting triangle pattern.

Here's the AUD/NZD chart I mentioned with the IHS price action pattern and the TDI confirmation pattern to go with it...I use this quite often to help confirm Wave 4 TDI patterns...

EDIT: I forgot to mention that one of the key components on those TDI peaks for either IHS or H&S is that they can be tied together with a single trend line and that the peaks are fairly close together. If the peaks are spread far apart or you have trouble connecting all 3 points with a single trend line, then it probably isn't an IHS or H&S pattern.

oh ok pennies. thanks for the thorough analysis

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #786 on: February 28, 2017, 06:01:39 am »
I've got other trades potentially setting up in the next day or so and I really don't want to wait on ACAD to play out in a triangle so I'm just gonna TP at 1.0099 when it hits in a little bit and take my 1 pip of profit and remind myself not to blindly take phone trades again...LOL!

quanticopious15

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #787 on: February 28, 2017, 07:07:27 am »
At this point I'm feeling good about closing out my most recent E/N trade and I don't see any reason to hop into it again for now.

I do wish I'd closed out my A/C trade when I checked it at 4 am.     I think it's headed for another high before it rolls over; how many new highs is the question.

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #788 on: February 28, 2017, 07:10:03 am »
I don't know Qui. It might be but the AU hourly chart looks ready to drop and the CAD currency looks ready to rise, which would drop ACAD if the two are combined. I might still hold off for my 1.005 TP target after all.

AU Hourly Chart...


quanticopious15

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #789 on: February 28, 2017, 07:11:22 am »
Have you noticed the TDI to price action divergence on the daily chart?

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #790 on: February 28, 2017, 07:13:14 am »
Yep. BTW, looks like UCAD is also due for a sell off here shortly, probably with the news release in a bit here.

quanticopious15

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #791 on: February 28, 2017, 07:15:53 am »
Well I'm holding till I see gains on both positions, and 1.0055 at the daily 21MA is my target.

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #792 on: February 28, 2017, 07:46:23 am »
ACAD is hitting the FE 161.8 in the C wave progression. That should wrap her up. Dippy doo time.

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #793 on: February 28, 2017, 07:47:22 am »
UCAD wrapping up a 5th wave Elliott Wave progression in a C wave as well. It should also fall back.

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #794 on: February 28, 2017, 08:08:55 am »
Worse case scenario in all this Qui is that if I'm wrong about the triangle and everything else, ACAD will head to 1.0180 or so and then fall apart at the larger 71.6 fib. So either way, it's only a matter of time.

 

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TA Forex Trading by Heavyweight
September 30, 2018, 11:48:51 pm