TA Forex Trading

Week 8 Wrap up:

Start: $103.23
Goal: $107.45
Attained: $110.02

Despite beating my goal by a fair amount, this week ends with a sigh of relief, not the thrill of victory. I could have done just as well by closing everything Wednesday morning, but I held and gave it all back. I got another chance Thursday morning, but held and got slammed by a totally unexpected pop in GU.

I opened another short position near the top and made good bank on it. My main positions I closed for small gains after today's big drop. Coupled with some small gains earlier in the week when I wasn’t so greedy, I cleared 6.5%.

I got lucky.

I’ll take a look at the charts again later and post next week’s play before Sunday’s open.

GU 4 Hour Chart

Trying to put a final count on this thing...it's a pain. This is the closest I have. In this case, I'd look for a retrace back to the 71.6 fib level right near 1.26.

Of course, I'll have to watch the hourly time frame to get a clear idea of whether or not price will stop there or not. The TDI count will give me the targets as they unfold. GU still needs to move back down closer to 1.24 though before it can bounce.

EA Weekly Chart

Wave count is complex but I feel it to be accurate. Bottom line is that we need a TDI breakout of the trendline to be able to find a bottom before the larger move back up. Currently though, we are looking at a move back up in the channel to near 1.44. That move is likely to be the move up that precedes the final low coming right afterwards...Wave 1 up and a Wave 2 back down. Then we can find a spot to go long for the larger move up later.

ACAD 4 Hour Chart

Close up view of what's coming next. When we get that minor Wave 2 retrace, price should be retesting the trendline about the same time. When that happens, we need to short the crap out of it because it's going to set up for a major fall.

I'm trying to practice good trading discipline, not just make money every week (that least of all since we are talking about a few dollars here, literally!). But my weekly wrap ups focus on wins and losses, I'm not using this forum to keep me honest like I should. So I went back to the first post on Jan 1 where I set out a series of goals for my trading. These were those:

1)   To minimize confirmation bias, I will keep the charts simple. Just use a few of my favorite lines and indicators.

Doing well on that. I use one indicator (used to be the RSI, just switched to the TDI), the tunnel EMAs, and the obvious support/resistance lines

2)   Make fewer higher percentage trades. If I am having success with a particular pair, stick with that pair until the luck runs out.

I think I do this, I generally pick one pair and enter/exit as the price action indicates

3)   Stay all cash if there isn’t a good set up.

Not so hot. I hate staying all cash.

4)   Part of identifying a good entry is identifying when the set up has failed. Set stop-losses and stick to them.

Full on failure. It kills me to take a loss. I've done it, but I've been ****-poor about going in with a disaster preparedness plan.


5)   If I leave a trade angry, I will go all cash for at least 2 days.

Haven't had to test it yet, but I'm not optimistic.

6)   Never under any circumstances carry an open trade into a market close. Exit the trade (generally shortly after lunch Friday). If trading is normal, I will get a chance to reenter at the same spot or better. If news drops, I may miss a big gap in my favor, but anticipating news is not trading, it’s gambling.

I have mostly done this. I am always looking for the exit on Friday, but I have not always closed out for the weekend.

Week 9 Post

Start: $110.02
Goal: $114.45

Looking at my usual pairs, I’m not seeing anything in particular that I like right now.

NU: 4 HR looks down, but the one hour is right on the tunnel and the TDI is turning up. Probably be good for a short entry Monday. I’ll keep an eye on it.

UJ: The daily looks down. But the 1 HR and 4 HR are turning up. Again, maybe short on Monday or Tuesday, but not right out of the gate on Sunday.

EN: this one’s my favorite right now. The 1 HR, 4 HR, and the daily all look down. I can see where’s there’s a big pop coming on the weekly, but probably not this week.

AUDCAD: I haven’t looked at this pair before, it’s not one I play, but I can see what Pennies’ saying about the 1 HR and 4 HR turning up but the daily crashing. Will keep an eye on it and consider shorting it on Monday or Tuesday.

GU: I feel like I’m getting careless with the GU, so I will sit that one out for the next couple rounds.

Play: If I take a position Sunday night (who am I kidding? Of course I will! I can’t stay on the sidelines) it will be EN short. Meanwhile, I will keep an eye on NU, UJ, and AC. I will try very hard not to keep an eye on GU.

Might have to put a damper on your EUR/NZD shorts there Kermit. While there is a bit more drop coming on EZ, it's not going to be much from what I can see before it pops again, at least temporarily. The TDI has established a new uptrend range for now and it's getting close to wrapping up a Wave 4 pullback. As soon as that pullback is finished, it's going to move up again. I have a probable bounce zone in place and, depending on where in the zone it bounces, that gives us a minimum zone bounce back to the low 1.47's. In the event of a stronger push up, we'll see the higher end of the 1.47's. Right now, the lower end of the zone around 1.4622 looks like the probable target before it bounces.

I'm still not real keen on shorts at these levels anyway because of the condition of the weekly chart but I will agree there is lots of wiggle room for some back and forth action before it blows north. To illustrate just how close we could be to a strong northerly move, I've also included a weekly line chart in addition to the hourly chart that I have posted here. We're basically retesting a breakout trend line here.

Hourly chart first followed by weekly line chart...

 Thanks for the heads-up, pennies. I'll give it some more thought. There's nothing else I like right now among the pairs I look at.


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I'm impressed and envious of those making much better than 1% weekly gains here but it helps keeps me positive that I can do it too.   Just not the way I've been going at it so far.
I managed to profit 1% average per week last year which with my starting $1000 will take me a decade or more years to get where I would want to be.    I'm at $1420 now.     I am going to step up my risk and shoot for 3% average per week.    With 3% gains I can be where I want to be in a few years instead of a decade.    So I guess that means taking 6% risk trades vice 2% and letting them run in my favor longer.     Cant beat a good timely initial entry either.   I'm either too early or I don't let the timely trades run long enough in my favor.    I take my 20 pips and close out only to find that I couldn't get back in lower near my original entry as I expected to.