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Author Topic: TA Forex Trading  (Read 11775 times)

Heavyweight

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3495 on: July 31, 2017, 02:31:37 pm »
EU hit the 261.2 fib extension I show on the daily chart.     I don't think that going to turn it.   It's a breakout!    Where does it all end?    Seriously though I had to move cash from my secondary account to my primary account to reduce the risk in my primary account.    USD/DKK is close to hitting a weekly FE 300 level I have on that chart but I'm just not convinced that's going to give the bounce I've been waiting for.    It's almost 5000 pips below to the ascending weekly channel lower line on USD/DKK and that may be where it's headed, but I could use a nice little bounce before it gets there.
I'm with you Quan... shorting EU has been risky to say the least. I'm having to play both sides of it in 2 diff accounts jus to chip away at some gains

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quanticopious15

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3496 on: July 31, 2017, 02:37:54 pm »
I hope I don't have to pull and transfer money from my bank account to my fx account at some point to survive my U/DKK shorts Heavy.    I'm determined to not only survive but come out ahead in the end, but I really expected a daily bounce already on this long wave 3 down on the weekly U/DKK so I'm pretty frustrated over my lack of gains here and how long it's taking to get ahead.

Heavyweight

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3497 on: July 31, 2017, 02:49:00 pm »
I hope I don't have to pull and transfer money from my bank account to my fx account at some point to survive my U/DKK shorts Heavy.    I'm determined to not only survive but come out ahead in the end, but I really expected a daily bounce already on this long wave 3 down on the weekly U/DKK so I'm pretty frustrated over my lack of gains here.
Dang I hate that for you but I've been there. Many times. That's why precision entries are a priority for me. I know we can't pick tops and bottoms but I'm really trying to find that likely turning point. There are clues in the charts we just have to find them and trade around them. 200-300 pip drawdowns are madness to me. I can't do it. I should just throw my scuba gear at the bottom of the lake then try to swim down there to get it. If I'm that far off then I'm either wrong on my entries or impatient.

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quanticopious15

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3498 on: July 31, 2017, 03:04:55 pm »
Honestly Heavy, that's why I'm trying to put together an EA that bases the trade on an ema or smoothed ma crossover of another ma, and since there's a lot less false crossovers going from a very fast ema lines over very slow ema lines then two ema lines that are closer in bar length, I'm wanting to use the 6 or so ema fast line and the far slower 400 ema line crossovers to base my trades.    Of course there's still periods where both lines will cross over numerous times before the final breakout begins, which is where the larger gains are netted, but it's a matter of the true breakout crossovers beating out the false breakout crossovers in pips and percentages.    Still working on the false crossover thing. 
« Last Edit: July 31, 2017, 03:10:43 pm by quanticopious15 »

Heavyweight

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3499 on: July 31, 2017, 03:42:57 pm »
Honestly Heavy, that's why I'm trying to put together an EA that bases the trade on an ema or smoothed ma crossover of another ma, and since there's a lot less false crossovers going from a very fast ema lines over very slow ema lines then two ema lines that are closer in bar length, I'm wanting to use the 6 or so ema fast line and the far slower 400 ema line crossovers to base my trades.    Of course there's still periods where both lines will cross over numerous times before the final breakout begins, which is where the larger gains are netted, but it's a matter of the true breakout crossovers beating out the false breakout crossovers in pips and percentages.    Still working on the false crossover thing.
I'm in the middle of moving right now so my main computer is not set up at this point but I've been using EMAs with the parameters set that are equivalent to the 20 EMA on all time frames (multi period ema). One parameter was set to like 2400 which is equivalent to the monthly 20 EMA. When those things line up the move can be really nice. Once I get set up I'll post the parameters or you can probably get them from someone on the board. Good luck on that EA. Looking forward to the results

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javalin

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3500 on: July 31, 2017, 05:50:13 pm »
Heavy looking forward to those parameters

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3501 on: August 01, 2017, 04:11:54 am »
Charts are showing EZ is gonna be bullish for a while now so I'm long at 1.5765. Looking to to TP conservatively around 1.5890.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2017, 04:14:14 am by Pennies2007 »

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3502 on: August 01, 2017, 04:38:04 am »
Near term, I'm setting up a limit buy order on EZ at 1.5785 as a flipper while I hold the longer term position.

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3503 on: August 01, 2017, 04:47:05 am »
Here's the chart setup on the EZ long using this finalized method I came up with...


Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3504 on: August 01, 2017, 04:59:51 am »
Near term, I'm setting up a limit buy order on EZ at 1.5785 as a flipper while I hold the longer term position.

1.5785 EZ flipper long triggered. Looking for 30 to 50 pips profit on the flipper.

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3505 on: August 01, 2017, 05:07:41 am »
TP on the EZ long flipper set for 1.5825.

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3506 on: August 01, 2017, 06:33:46 am »
Went ahead and took 30 pips on the EZ flipper and the 50 pips on the original longer term trade. Here's the before and after charts. I got out way too early because there's definitely more topside coming but I'm not looking a gift horse in the mouth...a bit over 80 pips profit on both trades, good for a quick 120 bucks.

Before and after charts...I now consider the chart setup complete and easily tradeable. Less is more with this template.


Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3507 on: August 01, 2017, 12:05:47 pm »
EZ follow-up. At this point, it did hit my 1.5825 TP target I had on the flipper. I always aim well below the 2nd extension target from the entry level.

But the red PETD candles on the 15 minute and the single red PETD candle on the hourly are saying it's prudent to exit any remaining trade positions.

The nice thing about this setup is that even if the trade doesn't run as far as you expect, you can still take profits along the way and protect the rest with either a trailing stop or exit for break even plus a pip or two on the return retrace. Same with short setups.

Follow up charts...keep in mind the candles are NOT turning red because they're bearish candles. They only turn red or green based on the PETD indicator with the modified code I posted about. Basically, the candles are a visual indicator of whether or not the candles close above the EMA15 or below the EMA15. During an uptrend, closes above the EMA15 are posted as green candles. During a downtrend, closes below the EMA15 are posted as red candles.

For anyone interested in this setup, look up Steve Primo on Youtube. He has tons of videos that describe his system. He's a former floor trader on the NYSE and has decades of experience. I wanted a setup that emulated my HA candles but I still wanted some form of regular candles on the chart as well. The PETD indicator along with the modified bollinger band setup (dashed white lines) gave me what I wanted with a lot less clutter on the chart and more precise entries.

Of course, Primo wants to sell you stuff as most of those retired professional traders do. The PETD system alone sells for something like 2 grand. But if you watch enough of his videos, he gives away a piece here and a piece there of his system so it's not hard to put together the bigger picture.

Here's the finalized template and the modified generic PETD indicator I coded to emulate his setup, if anyone wants it. But before you trade this setup, be sure to go and watch as many of those Primo videos as possible on Youtube to make sure you're comfortable with the system and can spot the setups.

Of course, like any trading methodology, the system isn't 100%. But it does have a very high win rate, somewhere in the 80% to 90% range, which is more than good enough to make an account profitable with very little drawdown if you follow the rules.

The one really big thing that jumped out at me about this setup is that it is absolutely non-subjective. The rules for entries and exits are clear and not subject to speculation. Normally, if 10 traders look at a chart, they'll come up with a wide variety of conclusions. With this setup, 10 traders all come up with the same conclusion. It makes it much easier to trade by totally removing any speculation about support, resistance, chart patterns, wave counts, etc. None of that comes into play. It also eliminates the idea of looking for tops and bottoms because the system is devoted entirely to trading the trend.

Template and the PETD generic indicator I modified are included below in a ZIP file.



Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3508 on: August 01, 2017, 12:11:22 pm »
Just a quick note on that EZ chart. Just because I exited the trade early based on the lower time frame red PETD candles does NOT mean the trade is invalidated by any means. Both the 4 hour and the daily charts are still bullish. But the 4 hour shows the SMA50 (blue line) going sideways and the daily has a downward slant on the SMA50so I probably won't re-enter the trade until the SMA50 either lines back up with an upward bullish slant or decides to give up and move into a downtrend instead.

 

javalin

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #3509 on: August 01, 2017, 01:08:31 pm »
Pennies thanks for the zip file-and info on Steve Primo-headed to you tube

 

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TA Forex Trading by Heavyweight
September 30, 2018, 11:48:51 pm