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Author Topic: TA Forex Trading  (Read 16138 times)

ForexTrader

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1065 on: March 15, 2017, 09:43:40 am »
EURGBP looking weak

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1066 on: March 15, 2017, 03:19:23 pm »
Went ahead and booked 570 pips of profit on several trades. Waiting on the rest to play out now. Among the trades closed were:

GU long
EU long
UCAD shorts
One UJ short

ACAD and AUD/CHF are topping out right in this area. ACAD did finally decide to push up towards that 88.6 fib retrace after all but that's not consequential. It only sets it up for a deeper sell off.

Still targeting 0.93 on the downside for ACAD shorts but I'll probably take some off in the 0.96 area at the first FE 61.8 retrace.

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1067 on: March 15, 2017, 03:22:09 pm »
TP on AUD/CHF short lowered to 0.75

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1068 on: March 15, 2017, 03:33:06 pm »
Just a quick explanation for closing out some of the risk pair trades. I see a very strong possibility of the US dollar turning around and gaining tremendous strength as the stock market sells off soon. When that happens, pairs like UCAD and USD/DKK could rise while pairs like EU, GU, AU, and NU tank hard. Some are slated to move down harder than others but I believe that this pop in the market today with the dollar sell off is completely contrary to what should have happened. The dollar should have rallied on rate hike news, whereas we saw a sharp drop.

I fully believe that the market and the dollar are going to get back to their normal inverse correlation....market up, dollar down. But if the market tanks soon, the US dollar will rise while the risk pairs tank with the market...except UJ of course....the Yen is a safe haven during troubled times, so the folks buying the Yen will outweigh the folks buying the dollar and UJ drops.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents worth...we'll see how it plays out. But that seems like the most probable scenario at this point.

EDIT: This could also mean that my bullish call on oil is wrong as well. But that's irrelevant to what ACAD is going to do long term. If AU tanks, ACAD will follow suit.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 03:39:04 pm by Pennies2007 »

ForexTrader

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1069 on: March 15, 2017, 06:34:34 pm »
Dollar Index daily


Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1070 on: March 15, 2017, 07:35:57 pm »
Dollar Index daily

Yes but look at the weekly dollar index chart. It shows a clean breakout and, at least so far, it's bouncing off of the breakout area. If that gains any topside steam, the dollar is going to push up hard again.

Honestly, it's kind of heard to tell at the moment. I may just be over-analysing the whole shooting match. I was originally counting on major rallies on things like EU. But if things explode north for the dollar index, EU and the rest of the risk pairs can drop back hard.

There's also the EUR/NZD pair. That pair is set up to go north a long way, even if EU drops back. It's a pair that normally only rallies during risk-off environments. If its about to surge, that would normally be accompanied by a market sell-off, which would, under normal conditions, support US dollar longs.

But, the market will do what it likes regardless. I'll just keep taking the TA trades and leave the rest to the powers that be...LOL!

Dollar index weekly chart...

 

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1071 on: March 15, 2017, 07:41:10 pm »
AUD/CHF 4 Hour Chart Update

TP target projections. I'll probably be out at the FE 100 so my current TP is set for 0.75 but it can go much, much lower based on some larger time frame projections.


Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1072 on: March 15, 2017, 07:43:48 pm »
ACAD Daily Chart

The new high didn't really change anything. The TP targets barely moved. The blue FE 61.8 is from the weekly chart and the yellow FE levels are from the current downside projection. She's gonna fall apart.


Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1073 on: March 16, 2017, 08:04:32 am »
Theres still enough wiggle room on Acad to tap 1.03 or so before rolling over. Still wrapping up some minor TDI wave movements here. Patience is a virtue...lol!

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Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1074 on: March 16, 2017, 08:25:45 am »
Taking a preliminary short on AU here at .7695.

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Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1075 on: March 16, 2017, 09:44:23 am »
Dropping my NU short target from .68 to .60. Its got a major drop coming. Might adjust it later but its going way beyond that .68 level.

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Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1076 on: March 16, 2017, 09:48:41 am »
Dropping my Aud/Chf target from .75 to .70 as well. Its going a lot lower.

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javalin

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1077 on: March 16, 2017, 11:39:57 am »
once again great charts Pennies

Pennies2007

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1078 on: March 16, 2017, 11:41:11 am »
Thanks Jav. Now if I can just convince the market to do what I want it to, we're good to go...lol!

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kermit42

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Re: TA Forex Trading
« Reply #1079 on: March 16, 2017, 12:02:00 pm »
Facts are simple and facts are straight
Facts are lazy and facts are late
Facts all come with points of view
Facts don't do what I want them to

 

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